ICE Canola Rising to Start Week

The immediate consequences of the U.S.'s capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro are concentrated on the oil market, but the real economic impact is a medium-term issue, Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management's Benjamin Melman and Michael Nizard say in a note. An eventual easing of energy tensions could cause lower inflation and allow for lower interest rates, they say. "If minimal political stabilization were to emerge, combined with a gradual return of foreign investment, Venezuela could once again become a structurally disinflationary factor for the global economy," CIO Melman and Nizard, head of multi-assets and overlay, say. "A major geopolitical shock is not necessarily inflationary in the long term," they say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

The U.S.'s ouster of Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro increases risks of wider geopolitical tensions in 2026, TwentyFour Asset Management's Felipe Villarroel says in a note. The impact could be small in the near term, but the action could lead to increased tensions in other regions, Villarroel says. "It remains to be seen how the events in Venezuela could impact the resolution of Russia's invasion of Ukraine," he says. The U.S. intervention could also increase the possibility of China making a move on Taiwan, he says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

An oversupplied global oil market and the high cost of producing Venezuela's heavy crude might undermine the economics of large-scale investment in new wells, says David Oxley from Capital Economics. "Despite President Trump's obvious desire for U.S. oil companies to ramp up activity in Venezuela, lower oil prices and political uncertainty will frustrate efforts to exploit its vast energy potential," the economist says. Capital Economics expects global oil production this year to be around 3% higher than demand, with Brent crude moving toward $50 a barrel by the year-end. "Crucially, we already expect lower oil prices to drive a modest decline in domestic U.S. oil production into 2027, and so the broader backdrop is hardly conducive to large-scale investments in new high-cost wells in Venezuela." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

Soybeans decreased to 1021.00 USd/Bu, the lowest since October 2025.

Over the past 4 weeks, Soybeans lost 4.98%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 4.72%.

Source: CME Group 
JANUARY 2026 PLATINUM FUTURES NYMEX 
INTENT DATE:   01/02/2026          DELIVERY DATE: 01/06/2026 
 
FIRM    ORG   FIRM NAME                   ISSUED     STOPPED 
072      C    GOLDMAN                                     21 
118      C    MACQUARIE FUTURES US                       227 
118      H    MACQUARIE FUTURES US            21 
190      H    BMO CAPITAL MARKETS                        273 
363      C    WELLS FARGO SECURITI                        78 
365      C    MAREX CAPITAL MARKET                        89 
435      H    SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA)                         7 
624      H    BOFA SECURITIES                            196 
661      C    JP MORGAN SECURITIES          1142 
686      C    STONEX FINANCIAL INC                         1 
730      C    PTG DIVISION OF SGAS                       109 
732      C    RBC CAP MARKETS                              6 
732      H    RBC CAP MARKETS                             70 
880      C    CITIGROUP                                   86 
                            TOTAL:         1,163       1,163 
                    MONTH TO DATE:                     2,086 
 
 
 
Write to Linda Rice at csstat@dowjones.com 
 

Source: CME Group 
JANUARY 2026 COMEX 5000 SILVER FUTURES 
INTENT DATE:   01/02/2026          DELIVERY DATE: 01/06/2026 
 
FIRM    ORG   FIRM NAME                   ISSUED     STOPPED 
323      C    HSBC                                         1 
323      H    HSBC                                         6 
363      H    WELLS FARGO SECURITI                         3 
624      H    BOFA SECURITIES                              2 
657      H    MORGAN STANLEY                              27 
661      C    JP MORGAN SECURITIES                        31 
686      C    STONEX FINANCIAL INC           119 
686      H    STONEX FINANCIAL INC                        24 
732      C    RBC CAP MARKETS                 13 
737      C    ADVANTAGE FUTURES                7 
880      H    CITIGROUP                                   54 
905      C    ADM                             11           2 
                            TOTAL:           150         150 
                    MONTH TO DATE:                     3,596 
 
 
 
Write to Linda Rice at csstat@dowjones.com