ICE Canada Weekly Outlook: Canola in Good Position

Dow Jones Newswires

WINNIPEG, Manitoba--Canola futures are expected to climb higher on the Intercontinental Exchange in the coming weeks, commented Phil Speiss, trader with RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg.

How quickly that happens is dependent on whether demand rationing kicks in or not.

"If we do not show signs of demand rationing, we could take a slow, steady climb to $700 (per ton)," Speiss said about the July canola contract. As of April 23, it was at C$682.30/ton.

Conversely, if canola supplies tighten further than expected, then prices will spike much more quickly. He said that largely depends on the weekly and monthly reports from the Canadian Grain Commission.

Should the CGC's weekly reports continue to show strong exports and domestic use, then demand rationing becomes a major factor.

Also, he said the commission's monthly report will highlight the amount of canola exported to China.

On April 17, the CGC listed canola exports at 7.38 million tons with 16 weeks left in the 2024/25 marketing year. The same day, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada held its to export estimate of 7.50 million tons.

There have been rumblings within the trade that Statistics Canada is one million to 1.50 million tons short on its canola production figure of 17.86 million tons. Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has kept to its estimate of 18.80 million tons through a number of monthly oilseed reports.

Until it's confirmed demand rationing occurs, Speiss said the canola market will trade sideways.

He pointed to a few outside influences that could weigh on canola values. One has been the Canadian dollar which jumped to more than 72 U.S. cents. Another would be a sharp increase in farmer selling.

"But I don't see a huge selloff (in canola futures)," Speiss stressed.

He also pointed to the "chatter about China" and there possibly being a trade deal between it and the U.S. down the road. That he said would support U.S. soybeans with spillover coming into canola.

Source: Commodity News Service Canada, news@marketsfarm.com

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Wheat Futures Fall on Improved Weather, Stronger Dollar

Trading Economics

Wheat futures fell below $5.30 per bushel, their lowest level since March 5, as improving weather in key growing regions pressured prices.

Showers in the U.S. Plains are expected to ease stress on winter wheat crops, according to Commodity Weather Group.

Meanwhile, warm and dry conditions in the Black Sea region had supported fieldwork, though upcoming rain could benefit soil moisture for winter wheat.

These weather developments weighed on futures despite a rebound in the U.S. dollar.

Additionally, a stronger dollar made U.S. wheat exports less competitive internationally, further pressuring prices.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Nymex Platinum, Palladium Warehouse Stocks - Apr 23

Dow Jones Newswires

Source: CME Group 
 
For previous business day 
PREV TOTAL subject to revisions. Source: CME Group 
 
                      Prev                         Net               Total 
Platinum             Total  Received Withdrawn  Change Adjustment    Today 
ASAHI DEPOSITORY LLC 
Registered               0         0        0       0         0          0 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                    0         0        0       0         0          0 
 
BRINK'S, INC. 
Registered         110,968         0        0       0         0    110,968 
Eligible            47,169         0   26,491 -26,491         0     20,678 
Total              158,137         0   26,491 -26,491         0    131,646 
 
CNT DEPOSITORY, INC. 
Registered           1,246         0        0       0         0      1,246 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                1,246         0        0       0         0      1,246 
 
DELAWARE DEPOSITORY 
Registered           3,825         0        0       0         0      3,825 
Eligible            21,450         0        0       0         0     21,450 
Total               25,275         0        0       0         0     25,275 
 
HSBC BANK, USA 
Registered           1,295         0        0       0         0      1,295 
Eligible            34,465         0        0       0         0     34,465 
Total               35,760         0        0       0         0     35,760 
 
INTERNATIONAL DEPOSITORY SERVICES OF DELAWARE 
Registered           3,394         0        0       0         0      3,394 
Eligible               451         0      451    -451         0          0 
Total                3,845         0      451    -451         0      3,394 
 
JP MORGAN CHASE BANK NA 
Registered         120,414         0        0       0         0    120,414 
Eligible            21,275         0   20,131 -20,131         0      1,144 
Total              141,690         0   20,131 -20,131         0    121,558 
 
LOOMIS INTERNATIONAL (US) LLC 
Registered          86,076         0        0       0         0     86,076 
Eligible            40,082         0        0       0         0     40,082 
Total              126,157         0        0       0         0    126,157 
 
MALCA-AMIT USA, LLC 
Registered             395         0        0       0         0        395 
Eligible               197         0        0       0         0        197 
Total                  592         0        0       0         0        592 
 
MANFRA, TORDELLA & BROOKES, INC. 
Registered           5,501         0        0       0         0      5,501 
Eligible            11,597         0        0       0         0     11,597 
Total               17,099         0        0       0         0     17,099 
 
STONEX PRECIOUS METALS LLC 
Registered               0         0        0       0         0          0 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                    0         0        0       0         0          0 
 
COMBINED TOTALS 
Registered         333,114         0        0       0         0    333,114 
Eligible           176,687         0   47,073 -47,073         0    129,613 
Total              509,801         0   47,073 -47,073         0    462,727 
 
                      Prev                         Net               Total 
Palladium            Total  Received Withdrawn  Change Adjustment    Today 
ASAHI DEPOSITORY LLC 
Registered               0         0        0       0         0          0 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                    0         0        0       0         0          0 
 
BRINK'S, INC. 
Registered           6,057         0        0       0         0      6,057 
Eligible            21,642         0    5,711  -5,711         0     15,930 
Total               27,699         0    5,711  -5,711         0     21,987 
 
CNT DEPOSITORY, INC. 
Registered              97         0        0       0         0         97 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                   97         0        0       0         0         97 
 
DELAWARE DEPOSITORY 
Registered             987         0        0       0         0        987 
Eligible             3,306         0        0       0         0      3,306 
Total                4,292         0        0       0         0      4,292 
 
HSBC BANK, USA 
Registered             586         0        0       0         0        586 
Eligible             2,623         0        0       0         0      2,623 
Total                3,209         0        0       0         0      3,209 
 
INTERNATIONAL DEPOSITORY SERVICES OF DELAWARE 
Registered               0         0        0       0         0          0 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                    0         0        0       0         0          0 
 
JP MORGAN CHASE BANK NA 
Registered          12,746         0        0       0         0     12,746 
Eligible               728         0        0       0         0        728 
Total               13,474         0        0       0         0     13,474 
 
LOOMIS INTERNATIONAL (US) LLC 
Registered          10,011         0        0       0         0     10,011 
Eligible               301         0        0       0         0        301 
Total               10,312         0        0       0         0     10,312 
 
MALCA-AMIT USA, LLC 
Registered               0         0        0       0         0          0 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                    0         0        0       0         0          0 
 
MANFRA, TORDELLA & BROOKES, INC. 
Registered           2,116         0        0       0         0      2,116 
Eligible               630         0        0       0         0        630 
Total                2,746         0        0       0         0      2,746 
 
STONEX PRECIOUS METALS LLC 
Registered               0         0        0       0         0          0 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                    0         0        0       0         0          0 
 
COMBINED TOTALS 
Registered          32,599         0        0       0         0     32,599 
Eligible            29,230         0    5,711  -5,711         0     23,518 
Total               61,829         0    5,711  -5,711         0     56,118 
 
Write to Rodney Christian at csstat@dowjones.com

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Cattle Climbs Back to Record TerritoryMarket Talk

Dow Jones Newswires

Live cattle futures on the CME rose back to record territory, climbing 0.9% to $2.0825 a pound. This gets cattle futures back to the record-high level they reached last month, and it comes not only as the market looks toward the summer grilling season, but after the Trump Administration indicated that it wants to negotiate with China to soften the tariff barriers placed by both sides. China has become a valuable source of demand for U.S. beef in recent years, making any sort of reconciliation supportive for cattle prices. "The risk on mode is in play," says StoneX in a note. Lean hog futures close down 0.3% to $1.00575 a pound. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

ICE Review: Returning to February Highs

Dow Jones Newswires

WINNIPEG, Manitoba--Intercontinental Exchange canola futures were higher for a second day on Wednesday. A trader said canola has returned to the highs set in February.

That momentum depends on what the Canadian Grain Commission says in its coming weekly and monthly reports, he said. Should canola exports remain strong, especially those to China, and domestic use stay ahead of last year's pace, then demand rationing will kick in.

However, July canola is still likely to make the climb to C$700 per tonne if demand were to wane just more slowly, he added.

The July contract continued to be well above its major moving averages, further underpinning canola values.

Gains in Chicago soybeans and soymeal, along with those in Malaysian palm oil and most European rapeseed contracts lent support to canola. Declines in crude oil tried to limit the extent of the increases.

The Canadian dollar fell back on Wednesday afternoon with the loonie dropping to 71.98 U.S. cents compared to Tuesday's close of 72.32.

There were 42,029 contracts traded on Wednesday, compared to 43,828 on Tuesday. Spreading accounted for 21,414 contracts traded.

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:

 
           Price      Change 
May       676.00     up 3.20 
Jul       682.30     up 2.80 
Nov       652.90     up 2.40 
Jan       658.30     up 2.00

Spread trade prices are in Canadian dollars and the volume represents the number of spreads:

 
Months    Prices                            Volume 
May/Jul   5.40 under to 7.50 under           6,342 
May/Nov   24.00 over to 19.70 over               9 
Jul/Nov   30.60 over to 25.20 over           3,515 
Jul/Jan   25.00 over to 20.30 over              28 
Nov/Jan   5.00 under to 5.70 under             550 
Nov/May   10.00 under to 10.40 under             1 
Jan/Mar   2.90 under to 3.50 under              92 
Mar/May   1.40 under to 2.00 under             108 
May/Jul   0.10 under to 0.60 under              62

Source: Commodity News Service Canada, news@marketsfarm.com

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Front Month Nymex Crude Fell 2.20% to Settle at $62.27Data Talk

Dow Jones Newswires

Front Month Nymex Crude for June (new front month) delivery lost $1.40 per barrel, or 2.20% to $62.27 today

Down two of the past three sessions
Lowest settlement value since Tuesday, April 15, 2025
Off 25.76% from its 52-week high of $83.88 hit Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Up 4.51% from its 52-week low of $59.58 hit Tuesday, April 8, 2025
Down 24.80% from 52 weeks ago
Off 22.20% from its 2025 settlement high of $80.04 hit Wednesday, Jan. 15, 2025
Up 4.51% from its 2025 settlement low of $59.58 hit Tuesday, April 8, 2025
Off 57.14% from its record high of $145.29 hit Thursday, July 3, 2008
Month-to-date it is down 12.88%
Year-to-date it is down $9.45 or 13.18%

All prices are calculated based on the settlement price of the current front month contract.

Source: Dow Jones Market Data

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Front Month Nymex Natural Gas Rose 0.50% to Settle at $3.0220Data Talk

Dow Jones Newswires

Front Month Nymex Natural Gas for May delivery gained 1.50 cents per million British thermal units, or 0.50% to $3.0220 per million British thermal units today