Ibovespa Rises Nearly 1% on Political Easing

The Ibovespa rose nearly 1% to hover near 159,000 on Monday, rebounding from Friday’s sharp drop as investors digested signals that Senator Flávio Bolsonaro may withdraw from the presidential race, easing political uncertainty.

Sentiment was further supported by expectations of a 25 bp Federal Reserve rate cut on Wednesday, which helped bolster risk appetite.

Markets had sold off after Jair Bolsonaro endorsed his son as the candidate for 2026, but Flávio said on Sunday he may step aside, hinting that any withdrawal would come at a “price,” potentially tied to the family’s push for an amnesty for those involved in the January 8, 2023 events.

Vale rose 0.7% on firmer iron ore prices, while Petrobras gained 0.8% amid reports it may take over Braskem’s operations, lifting Braskem by 1.5%.

Major banks also advanced, with Bradesco up 1.1% and Itaú up 0.9% after reaching a deal to acquire stakes held by GPA (+1.3%), Casas Bahia (flat), and Assaí (+0.9%) in Itaú CBD.

Futures tied to the S&P/TSX Composite Index fell 0.5% on Monday as investors positioned ahead of this week’s policy decisions from both the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve.

Stronger-than-expected Canadian employment data bolstered expectations that the BoC will leave rates unchanged, with markets pricing a 97% probability of a hold on Wednesday.

Traders also anticipate the next rate increase to come in 2026.

In the US, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver a rate cut at its December meeting, though uncertainty over the 2026 policy path kept sentiment cautious.

Meanwhile, oil prices fell, pressuring energy names, while gold inched higher, offering some support to miners.

In corporate news, Anglo American withdrew a proposal to revise executive bonus awards from a shareholder vote tied to its merger with Teck Resources, following investor pushback.

Teck shareholders are set to vote on the merger on December 9.

BRUSSELS (dpa-AFX) - The UK stock market's benchmark FTSE 100 was roughly flat a little before noon on Monday with stocks turning in a mixed performance in cautious trade ahead of interest rate decisions from several central banks, including the Federal Reserve.

The Fed, scheduled to announce its monetary policy on Wednesday, is widely expected to lower interest rate by 25 basis points. The bank's accompanying statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's post meeting conference are eyed for clues about further rate moves.

The FTSE 100 was down 1.01 points or 0.01% at 9,666.00 a few minutes before noon.

Prudential climbed about 2.5%. Fresnillo, Vodafone Group, Schroders, Rolls-Royce Holdings, Babcock International, Metlen Energy & Metals, BAE Systems, Scottish Mortgage and IAG gained 1 to 2%.

Smith & Nephew moved up 1.25%. The medical technology company outlined a new strategic plan, updated 2026 guidance, and long-term 2028 goals at its Capital Markets Day in London.

Marks & Spencer and Mondi lost about 2.2% and 2.1%, respectively. Barratt Redrow, Persimmon, Berkeley Group Holdings, Convatec Group, Whitbread, Howden Joinery Group and Burberry Group lost 1 to 2%.

Consumer goods giant Unilever slumped nearly 4% in early trades, but pared losses and was down just marginally a few minutes before noon. The company has completed the demerger of its ice cream business, now known as The Magnum Ice Cream Company (TMICC).

In economic news, a survey by the Recruitment & Employment Confederation and KPMG showed starting pay for permanent staff rose at the fastest pace in five months, even as hiring slowed and job seekers increased, highlighting persistent wage pressures.

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BRUSSELS (dpa-AFX) - French stocks turned in a mixed performance Monday morning with investors mostly making cautious moves, looking ahead to monetary policy announcements from major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, this week.

The Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan and Bank of Canada are scheduled to announce their interest rate decisions this week.

The benchmark CAC 40 was down 16.65 points or 0.2% at 8,098.09 at noon.

Edenred dropped about 2.7%. Saint Gobain, Pernod Ricard, Sanofi and Eurofins Scientific drifted down 1.25 to 1.7%.

L'Oreal slipped 1.7%. The company has strengthened its partnership with Galderma by acquiring an additional 10% stake. It already owned a 10% stake in the Swiss dermatalogy firm.

STMicroElectronics, Kering and Hermes International lost 1 to 1.1%. TotalEnergies, Orange, Stellantis, LVMH and Renault also lost ground.

Among the gainers, Unibail Rodamco climbed more than 2%, Thales advanced 1.3% and Safran movedd up 1.2%.

Legrand, Publicis Groupe, Capegemini, Dassault Systemes, BNP Paribas, Engie, Schneider Electric and Societe Generale gained 0.6 to 1%.

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By Steve Goldstein

Oppenheimer strategists target 8,100 for the S&P 500 by end of 2026

The new Wall Street high for S&P 500 forecasts is 8,100.

It could have been a moment for a victory lap.

On Dec. 9, 2024, Oppenheimer Asset Management strategists led by John Stoltzfus set a 7,100 year-end target for the S&P 500 SPX. Roughly a year later, that target is just 3% away. The problem is, the Oppenheimer team didn't hold their nerve after seeing the freefall from the April "Liberation Day" tariff announcement and cut the price target down to 5,950, before deciding at the end of July that 7,100 was the right call after all.

As far as four-month predictions go, it still was a pretty good one, and Stoltzfus and Co. are back with their S&P 500 target for the end of 2026, which is 8,100 - the highest forecast on all of Wall Street. (Deutsche Bank is close behind at 8,000, and the median of the forecasts compiled by MarketWatch is at 7,500.)

The reason is simple enough. The economy, and corporate profits, held up better than forecast. Why should that stop? "Our positive outlook for the S&P 500 is based on a number of factors that include persistent resilience evidenced in U.S. economic data, S&P 500 corporate results throughout most of this year beating expectations. This, in our view, augurs for further improvement in corporate results in 2026," they say.

They expect a rate cut on Wednesday by the Federal Reserve, and then one or two more in 2026. (The market is expecting at least another two cuts in 2026.)

"At the core of what lies ahead for our 2026 target price to be achieved lies monetary policy, fiscal policy and the continuing progress of innovation and corporate earnings growth, all of which have been supportive of stock prices and are key to growing earnings and revenues in the year ahead," they say.

They have outperform ratings on information technology XLK as well as consumer discretionary XLY and industrials XLI, while having underperform on healthcare XLV, energy XLE and real estate . The consumer, they say, is not dead.

"We note that while surveys of consumer sentiment (soft data) reflect concern by the consumer near term about inflation and the health of the economy, the hard data or sales data persists in showing that the consumer continues to shop if somewhat selectively and at a slower pace reflective of some sensitivity to prices," they say.

The market

As Fed week begins, U.S. stock futures (ES00) (NQ00) edged higher. The yield on the 10-year Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD10Y also rose.

   Key asset performance                                                Last       5d      1m     YTD      1y 
   S&P 500                                                              6870.4     0.85%   0.56%  16.81%   13.51% 
   Nasdaq Composite                                                     23,578.13  0.91%   2.49%  22.10%   18.72% 
   10-year Treasury                                                     4.148      5.60    2.70   -42.80   -5.50 
   Gold                                                                 4243.7     -0.50%  2.92%  60.79%   58.17% 
   Oil                                                                  60.19      1.14%   0.23%  -16.25%  -11.68% 
   Data: MarketWatch. Treasury yields change expressed in basis points 

The buzz

There's a new analyst at Morgan Stanley covering Tesla (TSLA), who cut the firm's rating to equal-weight from overweight.

IBM (IBM) is expected to announce an $11 billion deal to buy data-infrastructure company Confluent (CFLT), according to the Wall Street Journal.

Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) slipped in premarket trade after President Donald Trump indicated his administration was likely to closely scrutinize Netflix's (NFLX) planned purchase of studio and streaming assets.

Magnum Ice Cream is trading for the first time in London, Amsterdam and New York after being spun out of Unilever (UL).

Best of the web

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Why are Americans unhappy?

Tom Hicks, who died at 79, parlayed an early mastery of leveraged buyouts to create one of the world's first modern professional sports empire.

The chart

Demand for office space in New York City took a big turn higher in the third quarter. "The improvement is consistent with increasing return-to-office mandates. According to Placer AI, New York (along with Miami) continues to lead the nation in terms of returning workers to the office," say economist at Wells Fargo. "The outperformance appears to be owed to the dense clusters of advanced service industries, e.g. banking, finance and legal services, where RTO has been more prevalent."

Top tickers

Here were the most active stock-market tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Eastern.

   Ticker  Security name 
   NVDA    Nvidia 
   TSLA    Tesla 
   GME     GameStop 
   TSM     Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 
   PLTR    Palantir Technologies 
   SMX     SMX (Security Matters) 
   AMD     Advanced Micro Devices 
   CETX    Cemtrex 
   META    Meta Platforms 
   AAPL    Apple 

Random reads

A policeman's gunshot, a mistaken bootlegger and a wild trial from 100 years ago

Police recover $19k Fabergé egg swallowed by New Zealand man.

After 15 years, Detroit unveils a RoboCop statue.

-Steve Goldstein

This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

OTTAWA (dpa-AFX) - Germany's benchmark DAX moved higher Monday morning, as stronger than expected industrial data aided sentiment. However, the upside was just marginal as investors remained a bit cautious ahead of monetary policy announcements from central bank, including the Federal Reserve, this week.

The Swiss National Bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada are also scheduled to announce their rate decisions this week.

The DAX was up 43.33 points or 0.18% at 24,082.04 slightly before noon.

Bayer climbed 3.2% and Rheinmetall surged 2.5%. Siemens Energy, Fresenius, MTU Aero Engines and Deutsche Bank gained 1 to 1.3%.

Meanwhile, GEA Group drifted lower by 3.4%, Brenntag, Beiersdorf and Daimler Truck Holding lost 1.3 to 1.6%.

Vonovia, SAP, BASF, Symrise, SAP, BASF, Qiagen and Merck dropped by 0.7 to 1.1%.

Shares of Germany metals company Kloeckner and Co shares soared 25%. The company has confirmed it is in discussions regarding a potential voluntary takeover offer from U.S. metals processor Worthington Steel.

Car parts supplier Stabilus slid more than 6% after its profit fell in fiscal 2025, impacted by unfavorable market conditions, the global tariff conflict, and the higher pricing pressure in the automotive business.

Dtat from Destatis showed Germany's industrial output logged a monthly growth of 1.8% in October. Economists were expecting the increase to ease sharply to 0.2% from a revised 1.1% rise posted in September.

In three months to October, industrial production was 1.5% lower than in the previous three months.

On a yearly basis, industrial production gained 0.8%, in contrast to the 1.4% decrease in September.

Excluding energy and construction, industrial production grew 1.5% from September and was down 0.1% from the previous year.

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