How Solana’s ETF Success Will Propel SOL Price to new Heights Above $500

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

On Oct. 28, Bitwise’s Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) debuted with $69 million in first-day inflows, the strongest launch among roughly 850 ETFs introduced this year, according to SosoValue data.

For years, Solana was seen as crypto’s fast but fragile alternative to Ethereum, which was admired for its speed but dismissed as untested.

However, that perception shifted dramatically this week.

Record launch

On Oct. 28, Bitwise’s Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) debuted with $69 million in first-day inflows, the strongest launch among roughly 850 ETFs introduced this year, according to SosoValue data.

In addition, the fund generated $57.9 million in trading volume, outperforming all other ETF launches this year. How Solana’s ETF Success Will Propel SOL Price to new Heights Above $500_1

How Solana’s ETF Success Will Propel SOL Price to new Heights Above $500_1

ETF inflows capture new money entering a fund, while trading volume measures investor participation. Both indicators matter because high inflows without trading activity can suggest internal seeding rather than genuine demand.

Considering BSOL posted strong figures on both counts, this shows a sign of genuine, diversified investor interest rather than passive seeding or speculative noise.

Due to this, Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas described the Solana ETF debut as “a strong start,” while pointing out that BSOL had a $220 million seed.

According to him, the fund’s first-day performance could have reached $280 million if the seed was fully deployed on day one. This would help it potentially eclipse BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF first-trading-day performance.

Regardless, the $220 million seed helped lift BSOL’s net asset value to $289 million, placing it ahead of several Ethereum and Bitcoin ETFs in US market rankings. For context, it took several months for early ETH ETF products to reach similar activity levels. How Solana’s ETF Success Will Propel SOL Price to new Heights Above $500_2

How Solana’s ETF Success Will Propel SOL Price to new Heights Above $500_2

Why the Solana ETF performed strongly

BSOL outperformed its peers because it offered something most crypto ETFs still lack: yield combined with exposure.

Unlike traditional ETFs, which simply track price, BSOL’s structure allows investors to earn staking rewards and potential price appreciation.

Roughly 82% of its Solana holdings are already staked through Helius Labs, with a goal of reaching 100%. This translates to an average 7% annual yield, allowing institutions to participate in Solana’s native economics without the operational burden of self-custody or node management.

Beyond yield, Solana’s strong fundamentals amplified demand.

The network has delivered near-perfect uptime since early 2024, its DeFi total value locked has tripled year-to-date, and transaction volumes regularly exceed those on Ethereum.

That combination of high throughput, low fees, and real on-chain activity positioned Solana as the most revenue-generating Layer-1 blockchain.

Considering this, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, said:

“Institutional investors love ETFs, and they love revenue. Solana has the most revenue of any blockchain. Therefore, institutional investors love Solana ETFs.”

In short, BSOL succeeded because it translated Solana’s on-chain efficiency and staking income into a regulated, yield-bearing financial product.

How Solana ETFs Could Impact SOL Price

If history is any guide, Solana’s price could experience a sustained revaluation phase following the launch of its ETF, much like Bitcoin and Ethereum did after their respective approvals.

Data from K33 Research shows a strong correlation (R² = 0.80) between Bitcoin ETF flows and 30-day BTC returns, meaning ETF inflows explain roughly 80% of Bitcoin’s price variance.

Notably, Ethereum ETFs displayed similar behavior, with analysts noting that its reduced circulating supply and negative net issuance made ETH more price-sensitive to capital inflows than BTC.

Solana’s conditions could magnify that effect. Roughly 70% of SOL’s circulating supply is already staked, locking it away from exchanges. With Bitwise’s BSOL ETF targeting 100% staking of its holdings, available liquidity will tighten further as institutional demand scales.

This means every new dollar entering Solana ETFs will exert upward pressure on price due to a thinner supply base.

So, if the ETFs follow market analysts’ predictions that they could generate between $5-8 billion in new capital entering the Solana ecosystem, this could potentially drive a 60–120% price appreciation under similar elasticity assumptions used for Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Moreover, the fundamentals surrounding SOL further strengthen this outlook.

Galaxy Research describes Solana as having transitioned from a speculative asset into an “infrastructure play,” anchoring the Internet of Capital Markets, a system designed to support real-world asset tokenization, DeFi, and consumer-grade financial rails.

This narrative aligns perfectly with institutional mandates seeking scalable, yield-generating blockchain exposure.

In short, if the ETF inflows sustain and on-chain fundamentals remain robust, SOL could realistically reach $500 and above within the next cycle.

Source: Cryptoslate

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Manuel

Forex

Central Bank

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point Wednesday for the second meeting in a row, even as the government shutdown has left policymakers without key data to guide monetary policy.

The central bank voted in a split decision to cut its benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. President Trump’s newest appointed governor, Stephen Miran, disagreed with the decision, preferring to cut rates by half a percentage point, while Kansas City Fed president Jeff Schmid also dissented, preferring to hold rates steady.

Miran said ahead of the Fed’s meeting that he was concerned renewed trade tensions with China, which have since settled, posed risks to the economic outlook. He also said he’d like to cut rates to a neutral setting — a level designed to neither spur nor slow growth — faster than his colleagues because he doesn’t see tariffs leading to higher inflation and wants to avoid causing damage to the labor market.

Schmid has said inflation is still too high and the current level on interest rates is the “right place to be.” He’s cautioned that aggressively boosting demand could raise the risk of an outsized increase in prices, as firms gain pricing power and increase the passthrough of tariffs to consumers.

Policymakers indicated in their statement that they don’t see any change in the state of the job market since they stopped getting official labor market data from August.

“Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up, but remained low through August; more recent indicators are consistent with these developments,” the statement read.

It also reiterated that “downside risks to employment rose in recent months.”

Officials reiterated in their policy statement that, “in considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”

The Fed also said it will stop shrinking its balance sheet on Dec. 1. The change in language comes after Fed Chair Powell said earlier this month that the Fed may be approaching the point in the coming months where policymakers can stop their balance sheet runoff, or the allowance of bonds to mature and roll off the Fed's portfolio, thereby decreasing the size of its balance sheet. Powell noted at the time that some signs have started to emerge that liquidity conditions are gradually tightening, and the committee wants to avoid the kind of strains in money markets experienced in September 2019.

The Fed's long-stated plan is to stop the balance sheet runoff when reserves — funds held by banks' deposits — at the Fed are somewhat above the level they judge as "ample."

Fed officials cut their benchmark interest rate for the first time this year in September, and the median of the 19-member FOMC committee penciled in two more rate cuts this year. Though the government shutdown, verging on nearly a month, has left policymakers flying blind without most official data to make a decision on setting interest rates.

The Fed's challenge is that inflation remains sticky, hovering well above the central bank's 2% target. The latest reading of the Consumer Price Index showed that "core" prices, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose 3% for the month of September, a tenth of a percent lower than in August, but still holding at the 3% level. At the same time, official labor market data through August showed a sharp slowdown in payroll growth. Officials have not received the jobs report for September due to the shutdown and have had to rely on private sector data and anecdotal surveys, which have shown continued weakness in payroll growth.

The decision to ease monetary policy again Wednesday follows months of pressure from Trump to bring rates down as the president and his White House allies repeatedly accused Powell of being "too late."

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Justin

Central Bank

In our preview we said that the Fed would cut 25bps and end QT... and that's precisely what happened.

First, a quick preview of how we got here:

Since the last FOMC meeting (on Sept 17th), Gold has dramatically outperformed across asset-classes (even with its recent plunge) followed by US equities. Oil prices have tumbled the most while the dollar and bonds have risen in value. Bitcoin is basically unchanged since the last FOMC meeting, having collapsed after reaching record highs intramonth...

The market has grown more dovish since the last Fed meeting, now fully pricing in a 25bps cut today (and is almost certain that December will see another 25bps cut)...

More notably, rate-cut expectations have barely changed since the last FOMC with 46bps of cuts priced in for 2025 and 69bps more priced in for 2026...

Finally, before we get to the meat and potatoes of today's statement, we note that Goldman Sachs models show monetary policy at its most dovish in years...

And bear in mind that financial conditions have never been 'easier'...

So as we detailed in the FOMC preview, the two main questions for traders today is:

1) will the statement/presser provide support for the market's current dovish future take (given the market's anticipation of a 25bps cut, Goldman notes that it would likely be a high bar for the FOMC to change its plan on the basis of alternative data, and in any case the data have not given them any reason to), and,

2) will Powell officially announce the end of QT, as we discussed extensively in recent weeks (here and here), as a result of deteriorating conditions in money markets, the Fed is expected to announce changes to its balance sheet program. Fed Chair Powell suggested that the level of reserves will likely hit an ample level within a couple of months, although as we highlighted, the combination of reserves and reverse repos is now the lowest it has been since 2020 resulting in a creeping increase in the SOFR rate.

Meanwhile, usage of the Fedʼs repo facility has picked up, suggesting that some participants may be growing tighter on cash.

With that in mind, here are the key headlines from the FOMC Statement:

The FOMC cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00%, as expected.
The Fed announced that QT (aka the run-off of Treasury securities from the Fed's balance sheet currently capped at $5 billion per month) would conclude on December 1, as also became consensus in recent days as a result of turmoil in funding markets.
There were twp dissents, one from Fed Governor Stephen Miran in favor of a 50-bp cut, and one from Jeffrey Schmid, who preferred no change to the rate cut.

Source: Zero Hedge

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Adam

Commodity

Economic

Growing economic uncertainty has been a key driver of renewed investment demand for gold. While easing fears have prompted some selling pressure in the precious metal, new data highlight renewed risks for American consumers.

Easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, along with a relatively calm third-quarter earnings season, continue to support equity markets at record highs and the S&P 500’s push toward 7,000 points. However, the LegalShield Consumer Stress Legal Index (CSLI) shows that consumer stress has risen to its highest level in five years.

The index rose to 71.2 in September from 68.2 in June and is up 26.3% from its post-COVID low of 56.4 in December 2021. The index has climbed steadily for seven consecutive months. LegalShield, a legal services company, provides Americans with access to legal advice, counsel, protection, and representation.

Specifically, the report noted that bankruptcy inquiries have skyrocketed in the third quarter. The Bankruptcy Index surged 17.4% in the last three months and is up 14% from the third quarter of 2024.

In an interview with Kitco News, Matt Layton, LegalShield’s senior vice president of consumer analytics, said that while consumer financial stress has risen more than expected, the trend has been developing for some time.

“All year long, we have been warning that consumer stress is rising,” he said. “We clearly have a disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street. A sustained increase in consumer stress, we would expect, will lead to an increase in foreclosure and bankruptcy down the line.”

Although the “K-shaped” economy continues to grow, Layton said he suspects the two sides will eventually converge. He added that it may only be a matter of time before weak consumer demand starts to impact broader economic activity.

"We're seeing families hit crisis mode heading into the holiday season,” said Layton. “The question now is whether this consumer legal stress translates into a pullback in spending in the final quarter of 2025."

Although consumer financial stress levels remain well below the record highs reported during the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, Layton said the concern is that stress will continue to grow.

“We are concerned that these conditions will continue into 2026,” he said. “We see nothing in our data that would suggest that these numbers are going to improve any time soon.”

Some analysts note that consumer demand has continued to support economic activity as the labor market remains relatively healthy. However, Layton warned that any weakness in the labor market could exacerbate financial stress levels.

LegalShield noted that last month, private-sector employment data showed the economy lost 32,000 jobs. At the same time, higher inflation and elevated interest rates continue to increase the burden on consumers.

“While the Federal Reserve cut rates in September for the first time since December 2024, borrowing costs remain significantly higher than before the pandemic. This means families already struggling with debt are getting little relief, even as they take on more credit to make ends meet,” LegalShield said.

Source: kitco

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Commodity

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

--Brent crude oil rises 1.1% to $64.54 a barrel.

--European benchmark gas is up 0.6% to 31.67 euros a megawatt-hour.

--Gold futures are up 1% to $4,021.80 a troy ounce.

--LME three-month copper futures are up 1.3% to $11,173.50 a metric ton.

TOP STORY:

Copper Prices in London Hit Record High on Supply Fears

Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange climbed to a record high Wednesday, driven by concerns over global supply after a series of disruptions at major mines and weaker forecasts from leading producers.

In early European trading, three-month copper futures rose 0.6% to $11,097 a metric ton after touching a high of $11,146 a ton earlier in the session. The previous record of $11,104.50 a ton was set in May 2024.

Miner Glencore on Wednesday trimmed the upper range of its full-year copper output guidance after reporting a decline in production in the first nine months of the year. A day earlier, Anglo American warned that copper production from its flagship Collahuasi plant in Chile will likely be lower than anticipated next year.

OTHER STORIES:

U.S. Crude Oil Stockpiles Fall More Than Expected

U.S. crude oil inventories posted a bigger-than-expected decline last week as imports fell and exports rose, according to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Commercial crude oil stocks excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by 6.9 million barrels to 416 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 24 and were about 6% below the five-year average for the time of year, the EIA said. Analysts in a Wall Street Journal survey had expected a 200,000 barrel withdrawal.

U.S. Weekly Ethanol Production Lands Below Expectations

U.S. ethanol production came in below analyst expectations last week, while stocks of the biofuel rose from the week before, according to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Ethanol production averaged 1.091 million barrels a day in the week ended Oct. 24, down by 21,000 barrels a day from the previous week. Ethanol production was a record 1.12 million barrels a day in the first week of June.

Naturgy Earnings Rise on Higher Energy Prices

Naturgy said earnings rose in the first nine months of the year, when macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical developments and lower temperatures drove gas and electricity prices higher.

The Spanish energy company said Wednesday that net profit climbed to 1.67 billion euros ($1.95 billion) from 1.58 billion euros in the equivalent period of last year on revenue that grew to 14.59 billion euros from 13.92 billion euros.

Equinor Earnings Slide on Lower Oil Prices

Equinor said third-quarter earnings slumped on weaker oil prices, missing market expectations.

The Norwegian energy major said Wednesday that adjusted operating income-its preferred measure-fell 10% to $6.215 billion against the $6.31 billion analysts had expected, according to a company-compiled consensus.

All Aboard Coalition Sees Gain in Helping Clean-Tech to Scale

A newly formed 15-member investment group aims to prove that investing in clean-energy startups can generate profits even without supportive government policies.

Their All Aboard coalition plans to back companies that are struggling to bridge the "missing middle" in financing for businesses that have passed early-stage development and reached the point of turning prototypes into commercial products, said co-founder Stan Miranda. He is also the founder and chairman emeritus of Partners Capital, a London-based provider of asset-management services.

Washington's Oil Dilemma Returns: How to Hurt Moscow Without Raising Gas Prices

The Trump administration's recent oil sanctions have revived a dilemma for the West: how to hurt Moscow's war chest without inflicting economic self-harm.

Even after last week's sanctioning of Russia's two biggest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, the U.S. has still more tools at its disposal to squeeze Moscow's oil exports. Those range from blacklisting Russia's shadow fleet of oil tankers to using secondary sanctions on banks, traders and refiners in other countries such as China or India.

Phillips 66 3Q Profit Falls on Higher Costs

Phillips 66's third quarter profit fell as one-off costs dragged.

The downstream energy provider on Wednesday posted lower net income of $133 million, or 32 cents a share, compared with $346 million, or 82 cents a share, in the same quarter a year ago.

Valero Energy Names Homer Bhullar Finance Chief as Jason Fraser Retires

Valero Energy's top finance executive, Jason Fraser, is retiring from the maker of transportation fuels and petrochemical products.

Valero on Wednesday said Fraser will leave his post as executive vice president and chief financial officer at the end of the year and retire from the San Antonio, Texas, company in the first quarter of 2026.

Australia's Lynas to Build New Heavy Rare-Earths Plant in Malaysia

Lynas Rare Earths will build a new heavy rare-earth separation facility in Malaysia to meet demand from buyers looking to source the critical minerals from outside of China.

The Australian miner intends to begin producing samarium, needed for magnets for defense technologies, such as F-35 jet fighters, early next year, before adding other heavy rare earths that are today almost all refined in China.

Glencore Trims Top End of Copper Production Guidance After Output Declines

Glencore trimmed the upper range of its full-year copper output guidance after it suffered a drop in production in the first nine months due to lower grades of mined material

The Anglo-Swiss commodity mining and trading company said it had produced 583,500 metric tons of copper in the year to date, down 17% from the comparable period a year prior. Gold production also dropped 17%, it said.

Source: morningstar

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Adam

Economic

With the U.S. government shutdown threatening to freeze October’s inflation report, the Treasury is expected to deploy a workaround to compute the index underpinning the $2.1 trillion market for inflation-protected bonds for the first time since their 1997 launch, a move that may cause pricing quirks as traders adjust their calculations.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has said it has halted all data collection and publishing during the shutdown, apart from recalling staff to deliver September’s Consumer Price Index, released last Friday. With the standoff now the second-longest on record, the White House warned there will likely be no inflation data published next month, which means the BLS' October CPI report scheduled for November 13 won't be released.

That could be a headache for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) market participants, as the value of those bonds, which investors use to protect their capital from inflation, hinges directly on the index. TIPS pay a fixed interest rate, but the interest is calculated on a principal amount that rises with inflation and falls in periods of deflation. How much the principal rises or falls is determined by the CPI index.

TIPS yields, also known as "real yields" because they discount inflation, have increased slightly over the past few days, which some market participants said may reflect uncertainty over their pricing in the absence of CPI data. Yields rise when bond prices fall.

"There's definitely uncertainty in the market around the data itself, which is then exacerbated by the lack of data. So you end up with high risk premium in TIPS and they end up trading cheap," said Benjamin Wiltshire, global inflation desk strategist at Citi.

The Department of the Treasury has a workaround plan in case CPI for a particular month is not reported by the last day of the following month, which consists in producing a fallback index based on the last available 12-month change in the CPI, according to Treasury regulations.

Should the October CPI not be released by the end of November, Treasury would be forced to produce the fallback index for the first time since TIPS were launched, market participants said.

US government shutdown may prompt first-ever workaround for inflation-protected bonds_1

Inflation gauges

Asked to comment on this story, a spokesperson at the Treasury referred Reuters to index contingencies related to TIPS that are addressed in the Treasury’s Uniform Offering Circular

, opens new tab, which details the mechanism that would be used to produce a fallback index.

Yields on 10-year TIPS were at around 1.7% on Wednesday, not much changed since late last week. Five-year yields were last at 1.249%, slightly higher.

Still, investors and analysts said any potential pricing distortion going forward would have a limited impact on demand for the paper.

"We don’t think the use of a fallback index will impact investor demand for TIPS going forward," said Phoebe White, head of U.S. inflation strategy at J.P. Morgan. "Most regular investors in the product are aware of the technicality, and others who only trade the product infrequently usually look at TIPS with a longer-term outlook in mind," she added.

MACRO UNCERTAINTY WEIGHS ON DEMAND

Experts pointed out that investor sentiment for TIPS heading into the next auction will be dictated by how long the U.S. government shutdown drags on. Moreover, the lack of availability of official data is affecting the broader perception of the actual state of the economy, said Matt Hornbach, global head of macro strategy at Morgan Stanley.

The next TIPS auction, for 10-year paper, is scheduled for November 20.

"If the general environment persists through that period of time, then it would be normal to see investors continue to shun the product," Hornbach said. "If we can come out of the shutdown well ahead of that next auction, we can get a better handle on what's happening in the real economy from an inflation and growth perspective, and then that may bring investors back into the fold, but it really depends on when the government reopens."

For the time being, lower market expectations of rising price pressures may have a more meaningful impact on TIPS demand than the uncertainty over the lack of CPI data, some market participants said.

U.S. consumer prices increased slightly less than expected in September, CPI data showed last week.

"Clearly inflation, relatively speaking, as much as it's high, it's surprising to the lower downside," said John Madziyire, head of U.S. Treasuries and TIPS at Vanguard.

"With the workaround at least you have positive CPI so you're getting something," he said. "It is not obviously going to be perfect, but then again, all of these data points are not perfect."

Source: reuters

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Devin

Economic

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates on Wednesday, and wealthy U.S. households may benefit most.

The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which banks borrow and lend to one another overnight. A quarter-point reduction would bring the benchmark rate to a range between 3.75%-4.00%. It could fall to 3.1% by the end of 2027, according to a September forecast from the Federal Open Market Committee.

"That really sets the floor for all other interest rates," said Michael Wagner, co-founder of Omnia Family Wealth in Aventura, Florida. "We ultimately start earning less money on cash, which makes it less attractive versus other investments."

Reductions in the fed funds rate typically set off a chain reaction throughout the economy.

For example, cash held in high-yield savings accounts typically earns less money soon after a reduction in the federal funds rate. The change in short-term interest rates can also potentially lead to cheaper terms on longer-term loans, such as mortgages.

Fed cuts may 'widen the generational wealth gap'

Lower interest rates can speed up economic growth and lead to an increase in hiring, experts say. But they are also associated with rising levels of wealth inequality.

"The Fed's easing cycle could unintentionally widen the generational wealth gap, lifting the net worth of retirees, baby boomers," said Kathryn Rooney Vera, a chief market strategist at StoneX Group.

That's because asset price booms tend to follow Fed rate cuts, and older, wealthier consumers — who own more stocks — disproportionately benefit from those market gains. Meanwhile, younger and less advantaged households with more of their assets in cash may see their returns diminish.

The top 0.1% wealthiest households own over $23 trillion in financial assets as of the second quarter of 2025, according to Federal Reserve data. That's a 91.2% increase from the $12.32 trillion recorded in the first quarter of 2020.

By contrast, the bottom half of the U.S. population holds about $10 trillion in assets. That's a 46.6% increase from the start of 2020, when this segment held just $6.93 trillion in assets.