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XRP Ledger's incredible network growth over the last month, which at times surpassed a 400% increase in both the number of payments and the volume of transactions, seems to be abating. However, cooling does not imply collapsing. Although activity is still significantly higher than early-month baselines, the most recent on-chain metrics clearly show a slowdown from November's euphoric peaks.
Network transactions peaking
When a network transitions from explosive growth to consolidation, it usually follows this pattern: the spike diminishes, the noise level drops and sustainable throughput levels off around a higher mean. Although the payment count has decreased from its mid-November peak, it has not reverted to its early-November weakness. Chart by TradingView">
Rather, the ledger is fluctuating in the historically robust 600,000-900,000 daily payment range. The system is still processing consistent, healthy traffic, but the enormous peaks above two billion XRP per day have vanished. The euphoric phase came to an end, but the activity shift persisted.
On the other hand, the price chart depicts a completely different dynamic. XRP is still trading inside a long-running declining channel capped by the overhead 100-day and 200-day moving averages, despite strong ledger usage. Buyers are defending support, as evidenced by the recent rebound from the channel's lower boundary, but the upside is still constrained.
The $2.10-$2.12 resistance cluster, where the channel's midline and the 50-day MA converge, is where XRP is currently pushing. This area has repeatedly rejected the price. Whether XRP can overcome this compression zone with convincing volume is what will matter over the coming days.
Due to the waning ledger euphoria, the spot price is now dependent on real market demand, since on-chain metrics are no longer offering tailwinds. The chart may move toward a mid-channel drift, aiming at the $2.20-$2.25 region if buyers push XRP through $2.15 and maintain momentum. XRP will probably return to the lower boundary around $2.00 if it fails to break out.
Shiba Inu , a popular meme coin, has finally reached a point on the chart where the chaos stops and a predictable pattern emerges. You could call it a "Triple-Six" setup, a simple 6.66% upside path that almost perfectly lines up with SHIB's first real resistance level at $0.00000904.
It is not a huge move, but it is the first organized action the meme coin has shown after weeks of dropping.
The setup is based on strong support around $0.0000084-$0.00000847 per SHIB. That zone has held strong, even as broader altcoins have been unstable, giving buyers a reliable foundation to work with. As long as SHIB stays above it, the next step is clear: test the upper Bollinger band, which is right at the 6.66% extension.BITFINEX:SHIBUSD by TradingView">
The bands support the idea. The lower envelope is not sinking, the center line is not sliding and the candles finally look green for more than a few hours. Nothing dramatic, just a chart that has stopped deteriorating.
Optimism for SHIB
RSI in the mid-40s adds to the picture as the Shiba Inu coin is not overbought or pressured, and it has enough space to climb without running into extreme conditions. For a meme coin that just spent the early part of the month near $0.00000776, that alone counts as progress.
Thus, the whole "Triple-Six" situation boils down to this: can SHIB hold this narrow base long enough to make a straightforward push toward $0.00000904?
If that is the case, the 6.66% move becomes the first legit bullish checkpoint in weeks. If not, the chart slides back into the same rhythm that capped every bounce before it.
XRP’s price has continued to chop, trading sideways, which has impacted the price of the U.S. spot ETFs that provide exposure to the altcoin. Canary Capital’s XRP fund has crashed 20% since its launch, although this fund remains the largest by assets under management (AuM).
XRP’s Sideways Price Action Leads To Spot ETF Crash
The XRP price has continued to trade within a tight range, just above the psychological $2 level, sparking bearish sentiment among investors. The altcoin is down over 10% in the last month, around the time the first spot XRP ETF, Canary’s fund, launched. This bearish price action has notably contributed to a price crash for Canary’s XRPC fund.
TradingView data shows that Canary’s XRP ETF is down 20% since its launch on November 13. XRPC also dropped almost 10% last week amid choppy price action. Canary’s fund has also likely crashed due to increased competition from three other spot funds that launched after it. This has led to a slowdown in its inflows since these funds launched.
Meanwhile, these funds track the spot XRP price, which also explains Canary’s XRPC crash. XRP has mirrored Bitcoin’s price action amid concerns that the crypto market may already be in a bear market. XRP whales also look to be bearish at the moment, as Santiment data shows a drop in whale transactions from a recent high recorded in November.
However, despite this bearish sentiment, with the crypto market currently in a state of fear, the XRP ETFs have continued to record daily net inflows. SoSo Value data show that these funds have been on a 16-day net inflow streak since Canary’s XRP fund launched on November 13, and they have yet to record a net outflow day.
Canary’s XRP ETF, which has suffered a 20% price crash, is currently the largest spot XRP fund with $364 million in assets under management. Grayscale’s GXRP is second with $211 million, while Bitwise and Franklin Templeton are third and fourth. As a group, these XRP funds are about to hit $1 billion in assets under management, with $861 million in total net assets.
Some Positives For The Altcoin
Santiment data show that XRP exchange outflows have outweighed inflows in recent times. This is a positive as it indicates that more investors are accumulating than selling. Exchange outflows typically represent moves for long-term holding, especially in anticipation of higher prices.
In an X post, Santiment mentioned that the XRP Ledger is seeing a fascinating trend of whale and shark wallets shrinking in number but continuing to grow in coins held. The on-chain analytics platform noted that there are 20.6% fewer 100 million XRP wallets, but that these wallets, as a group, still own a 7-year high 48 billion coins. As such, the existing 100 million XRP wallets are doubling down on their accumulation efforts and making up for the shrinking number of wallets.
At the time of writing, the altcoin’s price is trading at around $2.07, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Crypto traders are walking into a very important macro week of the year. A fresh batch of labor data, a new OPEC report, and a high-stakes Fed meeting are all set to land within days and each one could influence how much liquidity flows into Bitcoin and the broader market.
With expectations leaning toward another rate cut, this is a week where every data point matters.
JOLTS Kicks Off the Action
Tuesday’s JOLTS report sets the tone for the week.
According to the August 2025 JOLTS report, the U.S. labor market had 7.227 million open job positions.
For crypto, a softer reading supports the “soft-landing” story and opens the door for more easing.
Fed Decision: The Main Event
The spotlight turns fully to the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Policymakers are widely expected to cut interest rates for the third time in 2025, bringing the target range closer to 3.5%-3.75%.
It’s a tricky meeting – the Fed will be deciding without a full set of economic reports due to government data delays. Still, the recent uptick in unemployment has pushed major banks toward the same call.
Morgan Stanley even said, “it seems we jumped the gun” on its earlier prediction, while JPMorgan and Bank of America also expect a 25-bps cut. FedMarketWatch now shows an 87.2% probability of a rate cut this week. After the decision, all eyes turn to Jerome Powell’s 2:30 p.m. ET press conference.
His guidance on inflation, the slowing job market, and what comes next in January often moves markets more than the decision itself.
OPEC Adds Another Layer
Thursday brings the latest OPEC report. Any signal on supply will feed directly into inflation expectations – something the Fed is watching closely.
A 2023 study found oil and crypto tend to move together in normal markets but flip negative during periods of stress, which makes this update worth watching.
Jobless Claims and a Key Bond Auction
Also on Thursday, jobless claims will be in, following last week’s surprise drop to 191,000, the lowest since 2022. Holiday distortions likely played a role, but the broader picture still shows a labor market cooling, not slipping.
Later, the 30-year bond auction gives another read on investor demand for long-term Treasurys. Last month’s auction cleared at 4.694%. Strong demand would help ease yields – something risk assets, including crypto, generally welcome.
Traders will be watching each release closely but it’s Wednesday’s Fed decision and Powell’s tone that will likely set the market’s path.
Bitcoin starts the second week of December above $90,000 as “Santa rally” talk begins.
BTC price action focuses on a key resistance area in the low $90,000 region, but traders still see another dip coming.
Federal interest-rate decision week hangs over risk assets despite broad consensus that a cut will result.
The Fed decision will decide the fate of a Santa rally for stocks, analysis agrees.
For Bitcoin, seasonality suggests that this year’s “bear market” bottom timing could echo 2022.
Open interest and leverage stay muted in what could be light at the end of the tunnel for the bulls.
Fibonacci level becomes key BTC price floor
Bitcoin price volatility made a comeback into the weekly close — a pattern seen increasingly often this quarter.
After dipping to near $87,000, managed a weekly close around the $90,000 mark before further erratic moves on lower time frames, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms.
Traders thus stayed wary of fakeout moves in both directions.
In his latest X thread on BTC, trader CrypNuevo eyed the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) as a potential retest target.
“For shorts, I'm looking for a 1D50EMA retest and I'm thinking that it'll adjust around $95.5k and be the range highs,” he forecast.
CrypNuevo said that Bitcoin lacked a “clear base” for going long, with the low $80,000 zone still on the table.
“Some liquidations in both directions but slightly more to the upside in the zone between $94.5k-$95.3k. If price gets there first, I'll be looking for short signals to a potential low $80's retest,” he added alongside charts of exchange order-book liquidity data.
Crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe was more hopeful, referring to “intense” pressure among Bitcoin buyers at local lows.
“Given that there's such an intense buying pressure taking place, I would assume we'll be breaking upwards and holding above $92K in the coming days,” he told X followers Monday.
To the downside, trader Daan Crypto Trades used Fibonacci retracement levels to flag bulls’ line in the sand. This stands at $84,000, a level that saw a retest to start December.
“Still holding on to that .382 area from the entire bull market so far,” he wrote in accompanying analysis.
FOMC week sees Fed caught short on labor market
Little by way of US macroeconomic data releases this week means that the focus is purely on the Federal Reserve.
On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet to decide interest-rate changes, and markets are betting on a 0.25% cut.
Recent jobs data points to deterioration in the labor market — and hence more of a need to lower rates. Analysis sees the Fed pinned between a rock and a hard place as inflation remains a problem that would be exacerbated by a cut.
“Nonfarm payrolls have now posted 5 declines over the last 7 months, the worst streak in at least 5 years,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of a weekend X post on US employment data.
Analytics resource Mosaic Asset Company struck a more optimistic tone, seeing an ideal combination of tailwinds for risk assets.
“With inflation above target, the economy holding up fine, and the S&P 500 near all-time highs, the Fed looks set to cut rates for a third consecutive meeting,” it summarized in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”
Mosaic added that it “can’t imagine more bullish conditions to help drive the stock market than rate cuts into loose financial conditions with the economy showing signs of continued growth which supports the earnings outlook.”
On FOMC day, meanwhile, markets will watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell for signals over future policy trajectory as he delivers a speech and takes press questions after the rate announcement.
This weekend, Kobeissi described Powell’s dismissal of “stagflation” risks at the May 2024 FOMC press conference as “the day the Fed lost control.”
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetterDec 06, 2025May 4th, 2024: The day the Fed lost control.
Fed Chair Powell responds to concerns about stagflation, "I don't see the stag or the flation."
18 months later, inflation is still at 3%+ and the labor market is at its weakest level since the pandemic.
Own assets. pic.twitter.com/gpBdXnfH7Y
Santa rally buzz gets Fed proviso
If stocks are in for a perfect cocktail of bullish catalysts to round out the year, crypto commentators are already discussing the odds of the “Santa rally” spilling over.
Mister Crypto@misterrcryptoDec 06, 2025The Santa rally is real, but the timing is all over the place.
Will we get a Santa rally this year? 👇 pic.twitter.com/YnsAjXqBbx
As Cointelegraph reported, crypto has vastly underperformed stocks in Q4, with the S&P 500 just inches from new all-time highs.
Network economist Timothy Peterson notes that the stars tend to align for Bitcoin more often than not into year end.
Among those taking the opposite side, however, is Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of crypto analytics platform Alphractal. , he argued, is due a “sideways” end to 2025.
“Every year, Bitcoin spends an average of 170 days in negative territory,” Wedson explained alongside a chart of accumulated negative BTC price trading days.
Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on the Santa outcome still being at the mercy of the Fed.
“The pullback in the S&P 500 from late October into November happened alongside falling odds for another rate cut this month. Recent comments from key Fed officials helped drive odds for a cut back higher, which also sparked a recovery in the stock market,” Mosaic Asset Company agreed.
Is $89,000 the new $16,000 for Bitcoin?
When it comes to Bitcoin price cycles and seasonality, the latest data gives bulls reason to stay confident on the outlook.
Uploaded to X this weekend by Peterson, a comparison between this year and in 2022-23 suggests that a long-term price bottom should be either complete or around the corner.
In late 2022, Bitcoin put in a multiyear low of $15,600 as it bottomed out after a brutal bear market in which it lost 80% versus old all-time highs.
Its rebound set in as soon as 2023 began, and if history were to repeat, hodlers may have just weeks to wait until upward momentum returns.
“$89,000 is the new $16,000,” Peterson summarized.
As Cointelegraph reported, comparisons to 2022 have become more frequent since October, when Bitcoin abruptly abandoned its successive run of new all-time highs to dive 36% over a six-week period.
In late November, Peterson said that the price correlation with 2022 had reached 98% on monthly timeframes.
Open interest spells out Bitcoin “apathy”
An encouraging signal from Bitcoin derivatives markets is keeping a full-on market rally possible.
New data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant confirms that open interest (OI) across Bitcoin exchanges has dropped to its lowest levels since April, when traded at $75,000.
“This decline typically reflects two things: 1) investor capitulation, or 2) investor apathy,” contributor COINDREAM commented in one of CryptoQuant’s “Quicktake” blog posts Monday.
COINDREAM noted that despite the modest BTC price rebound versus recent lows of $80,500, traders have not been tempted to deploy leverage.
“Excessive leverage usually acts as a drag on market direction. However, as prices have recently rebounded, leverage levels have normalized, reducing systemic risk,” it continued.
CryptoQuant’s estimated leverage ratio metric, which divides OI by BTC reserves, has declined significantly since mid-November.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Digital asset investment company CoinShares predicts that the surge in tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) in 2025 will continue into 2026, driven by increasing global demand for dollar yield.
In its 2026 Digital Asset Outlook report, CoinShares said tokenized RWAs saw strong growth in 2025, led by tokenized US Treasurys. According to the report, onchain Treasurys more than doubled this year, climbing from $3.91 billion to $8.68 billion. Private credit nearly doubled as well, rising from $9.85 billion to $18.58 billion over the same period.
“Tokenisation has materially moved beyond the longtime narrative of crypto enthusiasts,” CoinShares digital asset analyst Matthew Kimmell said. “Real assets, issued by reputable firms, receiving material investment. Even real regulators engage with crypto rails as credible infrastructure.”
Ethereum remains the most dominant network for tokenized US Treasurys. Data from RWA.xyz showed that as of Monday, Ethereum has over $4.9 billion in US Treasurys tokenized in the blockchain.
US Treasurys are the most “immediate” growth vector
CoinShares expects US government debt-backed products to lead the next leg of expansion in 2026, citing global demand for dollar yield and the efficiency of crypto-based settlement rails.
CoinShares said investors tend to prefer holding Treasurys over stablecoins when yield is available with minimal incremental risk.
“We’ve observed stablecoins demonstrating significant global demand for tokenised dollars as both a reserve and transactional asset,” CoinShares wrote. “Yet, when investors, as opposed to transactors, have the option, they generally prefer to hold Treasurys over holding dollars directly.”
CoinShares also argued that RWA tokenization has already moved beyond a niche experiment by crypto enthusiasts.
The company said that as established financial firms issue these assets, it attracts material capital and draws engagement from regulators who increasingly view blockchain as credible infrastructure.
The company also added that efficiency improvements are no longer theoretical. CoinShares said that settlement, issuance and distribution are starting to happen directly onchain, rather than through legacy custodial processes.
CoinShares expects the shift to continue, though not without competitive tension. According to the company, multiple networks and settlement systems are vying for market share. As a result, it remains uncertain which platforms will emerge victorious and how liquidity will consolidate.
Related: Hua Xia state-linked Chinese bank tokenizes $600M in yuan bonds
Tokenized RWAs grew 229% in 2025
RWA.xyz data showed that excluding stablecoins, which have a market capitalization of over $300 billion, RWAs grew from $5.5 billion on Dec. 31, 2024, to $18.1 billion at the time of writing. This represents a 229% growth in nearly a year.
CoinShares CEO Jean-Marie Mognetti said digital assets are no longer operating outside the traditional economy. He said they are embedded within it.
“If 2025 was the year of the graceful return, 2026 looks positioned to be a year of consolidation into the real economy,” he said.
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