Horizen to Hold Live Stream on December 10th

Key takeaways

• The halving-driven Bitcoin pricing pattern that shaped Bitcoin’s early history is losing power. As more BTC enters circulation, each halving has a smaller relative impact.

• According to Grayscale, today’s Bitcoin market is shaped more by institutional capital than the retail speculation that defined earlier cycles.

• Unlike the explosive rallies of 2013 and 2017, Bitcoin’s recent price rise has been more controlled. Grayscale notes that the subsequent 30% drop resembles a typical bull-market correction.

• Interest-rate expectations, bipartisan US crypto regulatory momentum and Bitcoin’s integration into institutional portfolios increasingly shape market behavior.

Since it came into being, Bitcoin’s price has followed a predictable pattern. A programmed event cuts the supply of Bitcoin in half and creates scarcity. This has often been followed by periods of sharp price increases and later corrections. The repeating sequence, widely known as the four-year cycle, has strongly influenced investor expectations since Bitcoin’s earliest days.

Recent analysis from Grayscale, backed by onchain data from Glassnode and market-structure insights from Coinbase Institutional, takes a different view of Bitcoin’s price path. It indicates that Bitcoin’s price action in the mid-2020s may be moving beyond this traditional model. Bitcoin’s price movements appear increasingly influenced by factors such as institutional demand and broader economic conditions.

This article explores Grayscale’s view that the four-year cycle framework is losing its ability to fully explain price movements. It discusses Grayscale’s analysis of Bitcoin cycles, supporting evidence from Glassnode, and why some analysts believe Bitcoin will still follow the four-year cycle.

The traditional four-year cycle

Bitcoin halvings, which take place approximately every four years, reduce the issuance of new BTC by 50%. In the past, these supply reductions have consistently preceded major bull markets:

• 2012 halving — peak in 2013

• 2016 halving — peak in 2017

• 2020 halving — peak in 2021.

The pattern arose from both the built-in scarcity mechanism and investor psychology. Retail traders were the primary drivers of demand, and the reduced supply led to strong buying.

However, as a larger portion of Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million supply is already in circulation, each halving has a progressively smaller relative impact. This raises questions about whether supply shocks alone can continue to dominate the cycle.

Tether’s USDt, the largest stablecoin by circulation, has secured a regulatory milestone in Abu Dhabi’s international financial center, opening the door for licensed institutions to use the token in regulated services.

Announced Monday, USDt (USDT) was formally recognized as an “accepted fiat-referenced token,” allowing regulated firms in the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) to offer trading, custody and other services involving the stablecoin. 

ADGM — an international financial center and free economic zone — has become a magnet for digital asset companies seeking clear rules and institutional access.

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said the designation “reinforces the role of stablecoins as essential components of today’s financial landscape,” a nod to their growing use in remittances, cross-border settlements and digital asset markets.

ADGM had already classified USDT as an accepted virtual asset across issuance on Ethereum, Solana and Avalanche. The latest recognition extends that framework, potentially boosting USDT’s usability for cross-border payments, institutional custody and settlement.

Crypto markets head into this week’s Federal Reserve meeting focused less on rate cut and more on whether Jerome Powell quietly declares the start of quantitative easing (QE). The key question on Wednesday for macro-sensitive traders is whether the Fed shifts into a bill-heavy “reserve management” regime that starts rebuilding dollar liquidity, even if it refuses to call it QE.

Futures markets suggest the rate decision itself is largely a foregone conclusion. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are assigning roughly 87.2% odds to a 0.25 percentage point cut, underscoring that the real uncertainty is not about the size of the move, but about what the Fed signals on reserves, T-bill purchases and the future path of its balance sheet.

Former New York Fed repo specialist and current Bank of America strategist Mark Cabana has become the focal point of that debate. His latest client note argues that Powell is poised to announce a program of roughly 45 billion dollars in monthly Treasury bill purchases. For Cabana, the rate move is secondary; the balance-sheet pivot is the real event.

Cabana’s argument is rooted in the Fed’s own “ample reserves” framework. After years of QT, he contends that bank reserves are skirting the bottom of the comfortable range. Bill purchases would be presented as technical “reserve management” to keep funding markets orderly and repo rates anchored, but in practice they would mark a turn from draining to refilling the system. That is why many in crypto describe the prospective move as “stealth QE,” even though the Fed would frame it as plumbing.

What This Means For The Crypto Market

James E. Thorne, Chief Market Strategist at Wellington Altus, sharpened the point in X post. “Will Powell surprise on Wednesday?” he asked, before posing the question that has been echoing across macro desks: “Is Powell about to admit on Wednesday that the Fed has drained the system too far and now has to start refilling the bathtub?” Thorne argues that this FOMC “is not just about another token rate cut; it is about whether Powell is forced to roll out a standing schedule of bill-heavy ‘reserve management’ operations precisely because the Fed has yanked too much liquidity out of the plumbing.”

Thorne ties that directly to New York Fed commentary on funding markets and reserve adequacy. In his reading, “By Powell’s own framework, QT is done, reserves are skirting the bottom of the ‘ample’ range bordering on being too tight, and any new bill buying will be dressed up as a technical tweak rather than a confession of error, even though it will plainly rebuild reserves and patch the funding stress that the Fed’s own over-tightening has triggered.” That framing goes to the heart of what crypto traders care about: the direction of net liquidity rather than the official label.

Macro analysts followed closely by digital-asset investors are already mapping the next phase. Milk Road Macro on X has argued that QE returns in 2026, potentially as early as the first quarter, but in a much weaker form than the crisis-era programs.

They point to expectations of roughly 20 billion dollars a month in balance-sheet growth, “tiny compared to the 800bn per month in 2020,” and stress that the Fed “will be buying treasury bills, not treasury coupons.” Their distinction is blunt: “Buying treasury coupons = real QE. Buying treasury bills = slow QE.” The takeaway, in their words, is that “the overall direct effect on risk asset markets from this QE will be minimal.”

That distinction explains the tension now gripping crypto markets. A bill-only, slow-paced program aimed at stabilizing short-term funding is very different from the broad-based coupon buying that previously compressed long-term yields and turbo-charged the hunt for yield across risk assets. Yet even a modest, technically framed program would mark a clear return to balance-sheet expansion.

For Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, the immediate impact will depend less on Wednesday’s basis-point move and more on Powell’s language around reserves, Treasury bill purchases and future “reserve management” operations. If the Fed signals that QE is effectively starting and the bathtub is starting to be refilled, the liquidity backdrop that crypto trades against in 2026 may already be taking shape this week.

At press time, the total crypto market cap was at $3.1 trillion.

After nearly two years since the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) began investigation on renowned DeFi platform Ondo Finance, the SEC has finally cleared the firm on Monday, December 8th.

The regulatory clarity, which has sparked excitements across the crypto market, follows the SEC’s plans to unlock the promise of tokenization for U.S. capital markets.

According to an official announcement released by Ondo Finance, the investigation, which started in 2024 during the Biden era, has formally been closed by the SEC without filing any charges.

The development, which propels Ondo Finance for broader adoption, also marks a major stepping stone to further bolster the modernization of the U.S. capital markets through blockchain-based infrastructure.

Initially, the investigation began as efforts to ensure if Ondo’s tokenization of real-world assets, including U.S. Treasuries and publicly traded equities, complies with federal securities laws.

Upon its emergence in the crypto industry, Ondo had rapidly entered spotlight following its expansion in the tokenized-Treasury market, hence its high visibility triggered regulatory scrutiny on whether the ONDO token itself should be classified as a security.

SEC moves to expand tokenization in the US market 

While the SEC has continued to make crypto-friendly regulations, it has increasingly acknowledged tokenization as a valid avenue to strengthen the U.S. market.

As such, SEC’s latest move to grant Ondo Finance regulatory clarity has fueled momentum around tokenized Treasuries and tokenized equities as global adoption continues to increase.

Notably, the infrastructures promise to offer faster settlement, greater transparency, and broader access for global investors.

Hong Kong, China, December 8th, 2025, Chainwire

Moca Network, a flagship project by Animoca Brands to build the world’s largest chain-agnostic decentralized digital identity network, today announced the beta launch of MocaProof, a gamified digital identity verification and reward platform that leverages blockchain to simplify and advance data privacy and self-sovereignty. 

MocaProof enables privacy-preserving credential verification for participants to prove ownership, participation, and qualifications on various on-chain and off-chain ecosystems, without the need to disclose raw data or identifiable information. 

MocaProof is integrated with Moca Network’s AIR Kit and Moca Chain to enable reusable, interoperable, and verifiable identity data across its network of platforms, providing zero-knowledge proof, decentralized data storage, on-chain monetization, and single sign-on. ​

The US Securities and Exchange Commission has closed its investigation into the New York-based tokenization platform Ondo Finance. The probe began in 2023 and ended without any charges.

Separately, Ondo received Liechtenstein approval last month to offer tokenized stocks and ETFs across the European Union and wider European Economic Area. The approval followed Ondo Finance’s integration with cryptocurrency exchange Bitget and Bitget Wallet, allowing non-US users to access tokenized real-world assets, including stocks and ETFs.

SEC Clears Ondo Multi-Year Investigation

Ondo said that it received formal notice from the SEC that the “confidential, multi-year” investigation was closed. The review examined whether Ondo’s tokenization of real-world assets complied with federal securities laws. It also assessed whether the ONDO token qualified as a security.

The company said, “The probe examined whether Ondo’s tokenization of certain real-world assets complied with federal securities laws as well as whether the ONDO token was a security.”

Crypto “Enforcement Eases” After SEC Leadership Change

According to a report by Crypto in America, the SEC opened the inquiry in October 2023 under former Chair Gary Gensler, whose tenure was marked by stricter enforcement toward crypto firms. Since Paul Atkins became SEC chair, the agency has closed several crypto-related cases, including those involving Coinbase, Ripple, and Kraken.

Tokenized Securities Could Enter US Markets

Ondo said the investigation began during a period of regulatory uncertainty. It described the environment as defined by “caution, confusion, and occasionally overbroad enforcement actions” and noted it was “one of the only firms focused on tokenizing publicly listed equities at scale.” The company added, “Being early, and being successful, came with scrutiny.”

It said the closure marks the end of one chapter and the start of another, where tokenized securities could become a “core part of the US capital markets.”

Most tokenization platforms continue to focus on customers outside the United States, offering tokenized versions of US-listed stocks and ETFs mainly to European clients, including Kraken-owned Backed, the issuer of xStocks.