Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index Ends Lower; BYD Slides on Soft January Sales — Market Talk

Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng Index closed 2.2% lower at 26775.57 on Monday amid a wider market sell-off. The biggest drag came from automaker BYD, which slid 6.9%, its steepest daily drop in eight months, after releasing January sales figures. Analysts expect China's auto sector to face a tough 2026. Higher effective purchase taxes on electric vehicles and tighter policy conditions are likely to drive a clear downtrend for EV makers, Nomura analysts say. Telecommunication also weighed on the index. China Unicom and China Telecom fell 6.3% and 5.0%, respectively. Data from China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology showed slowing revenue growth in the telecom sector, prompting listed operators to focus on cutting operating costs, Morningstar says. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

By Mauro Orru

Tesla closed the year with lower sales in Europe as Chinese auto giant BYD continued to outpace Elon Musk's electric-vehicle maker.

New-car registrations for Tesla models, a reflection of sales, slumped 20% on year to 35,280 units in December across the European Union, the U.K., Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association, an industry body also known as ACEA. On an annual basis, Tesla sales contracted 27% to 238,656 units.

In contrast, registrations for China's BYD more than tripled to 27,678 units last month and to 187,657 for the whole year, according to ACEA data. While BYD still sold fewer vehicles in Europe than Tesla, the figures show how the fortunes of two key EV makers are diverging.

BYD has experienced a meteoric rise in the continent thanks to its relatively cheap lineup of electric and hybrid vehicles, creating stiff competition for both well-established domestic carmakers such as Volkswagen as well as foreign rivals like Tesla.

Meanwhile, Tesla has had to contend with the fallout from Musk's involvement with the Trump administration that came to an end a few months ago, weighing on buyer sentiment. Tesla sales gloablly fell 9% in 2025 and 16% for the fourth quarter compared with a year prior. The company lost its crown as the world's leading EV maker to the Chinese company BYD.

Earlier this month, Musk said Tesla would stop selling a suite of advanced driver-assistance features for a one-time payment after Feb. 14, switching instead to a monthly subscription service.

Tesla has been offering its Full Self-Driving system for a one-time payment of $8,000 or a subscription of $99 a month in the U.S. The announcement came as the group is looking to grow its recurring subscription revenue.

The EV market in the EU continued to improve in December, according to ACEA data. Sales of battery-electric vehicles grew 51% on year. Registrations of hybrid-electric cars increased 5.8%, while plug-in-hybrid models grew nearly 37%.

ACEA said passenger-car registrations in the EU increased 5.8% in December to 963,319 vehicles, with sales up 9.7% in Germany and 2.3% in Italy, but down 5.8% in France.

Write to Mauro Orru at mauro.orru@wsj.com

Tesla, Inc. investors may want to pay close attention. China's BYD Co. is increasingly setting its sights on the U.S. EV maker's core markets. BYD is targeting a 25% increase in electric vehicle sales outside China this year, aiming to sell 1.3 million vehicles overseas, Bloomber reported over the weekend, citing comments from the company's general manager, Li Yunfei.

Ironically, U.S. President Donald Trump's trade tariffs have accelerated BYD's international expansion, enabling the automaker to gain traction in markets such as Mexico. But the latest target underscores BYD's increasingly aggressive push to expand overseas sales — potentially encroaching on Tesla's strongholds such as Europe — as growth in the Chinese market sharply slows.

BYD's momentum has been especially notable over the past year. In 2025, the company overtook Tesla to become the world's largest electric vehicle seller, delivering 4.6 million vehicles — a 7.7% increase from the prior year. By comparison, Tesla delivered 1.64 million vehicles, marking an 8.4% year-over-year decline. 

But, EV Markets Still In Doldrums

To be sure, a global slowdown in the EV market — particularly in China — has weighed on both Tesla and BYD. The U.S. and China, the world’s largest EV markets, are phasing out tax subsidies and incentives even as competition among automakers intensifies.

Tesla said it delivered 418,227 vehicles in the October-December quarter, down 15.6%, and below analysts’ expectations of 434,487 vehicles. In December, BYD reported 420,398 deliveries, down 18.3% year over year and marking the fourth straight month of declines.

Citigroup in November said BYD had set a goal to expand overseas sales to between 1.5 million and 1.6 million units in 2026, citing a meeting with the company’s management, Bloomberg reported.

TSLA Under Pressure Heading Into Q4 Earnings

Owing to sluggish sales, Tesla's stock has been under pressure. It has gained 10.5% in the past 12 months, featuring in the middle of the Magnificent Seven peers (see chart). BYD’s U.S.-listed shares, BYDDY, gained 9.5% in the same period.

However, Stocktwits sentiment for TSLA was ‘bullish’ as of early Monday.

Tesla will report its fourth-quarter results on Wednesday. Analysts expect revenue to decrease nealy 4% to $24.8 billion, and adjusted profit to decline 38% to $0.45 per share, according to Koyfin.

Germany's electric-vehicle subsidy program could benefit Chinese automakers with strong exports to the European Union, says Daiwa analyst Kelvin Lau in a note. The German government said Monday that it would restart the EV subsidy program. The program has no restrictions on the origin of EVs, so it's open to Chinese brands, Lau adds. The German government will spend EUR3 billion on the program from 2026 to 2029, offering subsidies of EUR1,500 to EUR6,000 for each EV with a focus on low- and middle-income households, he says. The program would benefit Chinese automakers like BYD, he adds. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

By Stephen Wilmot and Santiago Pérez

Julian Scot-Smith was window shopping at a Porsche dealership with his wife in London's fancy Mayfair district before Christmas, sizing up the SUVs.

Then the couple peeked into another dealership around the corner.

"We were thinking of treating ourselves to one of the German brands, but these Chinese cars look fantastic," said Scot-Smith, eyeing the $60,000 BYD Sealion 7.

Not long ago, few would buy the idea that a Chinese electric-vehicle maker such as BYD could sweep European buyers off their feet, competing against Volkswagen, Toyota and even such luxury brands as BMW and Porsche.

Yet BYD is leading a pack of Chinese automakers whose global export onslaught has surpassed even bullish expectations. The Shenzhen-based automaker delivered more than a million vehicles outside China in 2025, the company said, more than double the previous year's total.

China surpassed Japan in 2023 as the world's No. 1 auto exporter. Last year, it shipped 7.1 million vehicles from its pool of domestic automakers, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, up from 5.9 million the previous year. BYD, which replaced Tesla as the world's biggest EV seller, is one of Beijing's national champions.

"BYD wants to become one of the most relevant players in Europe, and in a very short period," said Alfredo Altavilla, a veteran industry executive advising the company.

Chinese brands hold a roughly 7% share of Western Europe's total auto market, selling more than 500,000 units in the first three quarters of 2025, according to data provider Schmidt Automotive Research.

European market leader Volkswagen, which owns Porsche and Audi, has already had its lunch eaten by local brands in China, which was once estimated to account for more than half of the German company's global profit. Now, China is coming for VW on its home turf.

In a statement, VW said it had "confidence in our products and our ability to innovate."

Politics, not market forces, has been the biggest obstacle to China's automakers.

In the U.S., tariffs and restrictions on Chinese software have effectively barred EV imports from China, reflecting fears about jobs and national security. Yet Chinese vehicles could be on the way. Geely, China's second-largest automaker after BYD, hinted this month it might expand production of its Chinese brands to the U.S., possibly at the South Carolina factory of its subsidiary Volvo Cars.

"The big question for us is where and when," said Ash Sutcliffe, Geely's global communications chief.

In a speech last week at the Detroit Economic Club in Michigan, President Trump said Chinese automakers were welcome as long as they used U.S. factories and workers. "Let China come in," he said.

Canada said Friday it would cut tariffs on Chinese EVs, following a meeting between Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Chinese leader Xi Jinping: 49,000 vehicles will qualify for Canada's most-favored-nation rate of 6.1%. The agreement was cast as part of a new strategic partnership that also foresees Chinese investment in Canadian auto production.

Trump's second-term tariff policy and his threats of territorial expansion have prompted Canada to take a more balanced stance in the U.S.-China rivalry. Canada's current tariff is 100%, in line with U.S. policy.

Mexico has gone in the other direction, increasing tariffs to 50% this year on vehicles made in China and other countries that don't share mutual free-trade agreements. Only firms operating car plants in Mexico, which include U.S. companies, can import their made-in-China models tariff-free. To cushion price increases, Chinese automakers boosted exports to Mexico late last year, stocking up ahead of the tariff hike, industry executives said.

Chinese vehicles also face steep tariffs in the European Union, including 27% on BYD EVs.

Yet, Beijing can't afford to let up.

Overcapacity

China has factories capable of manufacturing more than 46 million vehicles a year, but annual sales are likely to fall short of 30 million in coming years, according to S&P Global.

Exports have the potential to close the gap for companies that can afford it.

"You need to go global. Toyota did it. Ford did it. GM did it," said Klaus Zyciora, a former Volkswagen designer who is head of design at state-owned automaker Changan. "If you are not a manufacturer that is able to bring five million units annually to the market, you will have a hard time."

BYD hopes to have 2,000 dealers in Europe by the end of 2026, up from 284 at the end of 2024. It raised $5.6 billion from shareholders last March, in part to fund the expansion.

In October, Adrian Blackburn and Kirsty Blackburn from Yorkshire, England, sold their BMW and Fiat and bought two BYDs: the Sealion 7 and the smaller Atto 2. They were looking for EVs and liked the advanced technology BYD offered at a competitive price.

"I see it as a very credible brand," said Blackburn, an account manager for a food company. He even bought $2,500 worth of BYD stock, believing the company is the next Tesla.

The Blackburns drove their son and a friend in the Sealion 7 to a French campsite, a roughly 850-mile round trip. Recharging the battery en route cost the equivalent of around $155.

Chinese carmakers lined the halls at the Munich auto show in September, outnumbering local automakers. Geely said later it wanted to ship 200,000 vehicles from its core Chinese brands to Europe in 2027. In the first three-quarters of last year, it exported around 11,000, according to Schmidt Automotive Research.

Upmarket brands worry about the prospect of premium Chinese vehicles. "They will learn to upgrade, and then they will come in there as well," Volvo Cars CEO Håkan Samuelsson said.

To get around protectionist measures, BYD has opened factories in Thailand and Brazil. This year, the company plans to start building cars in Hungary, Turkey and Indonesia. A third European plant is in the works, likely in Western Europe.

Rapid growth overseas, where margins are higher, has helped cushion the impact of intense competition in China. BYD sold 4.6 million cars globally last year, short of the 5.5 million it had expected. The company reported two consecutive quarters of falling profit.

The highly competitive Chinese market was likely among the reasons Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett, an early BYD backer, sold his company's stake in the carmaker in recent years, according to analysts. Berkshire declined to comment.

'Forbidden fruit'

Mexico is one of China's top foreign auto markets, making up about a quarter of the estimated 1.6 million units sold in Mexico in 2025, according to industry executives. That figure includes low-cost models manufactured in China for U.S. automakers.

BYD sold its first car in Mexico almost three years ago and now ranks eighth in sales with almost 100 dealerships nationwide. Mexican buyers say the company's vehicles are affordable and look cool. One top seller is the $22,000 BYD Dolphin Mini, which features racing-style seats, wireless phone charger and large dashboard screen.

Enrique Estévez, an Uber driver from Ciudad Nezahualcóyotl, a working-class suburb of Mexico City, sold his Toyota Yaris and bought a Dolphin Mini. Estévez said a $15 battery charge, which costs about a third of the price of a full tank of gasoline, lasts almost two days. "I'm now thinking about installing solar panels at home," he said, looking to further trim his energy costs.

BYD doesn't disclose vehicle sales data for Mexico, but industry executives estimate that the company sold between 75,000 and 80,000 units in 2025 — more than Ford or Honda, and nearly catching Stellantis, which sells popular models from Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep and Ram.

"They are creating a market for affordable EVs that didn't exist," said Justin Fischer, automotive analyst at CarEdge, a U.S.-based consumer platform.

Mexico, a major automaking hub, thwarted BYD's plans to open a local factory, fearing that a Chinese auto plant would anger Trump ahead of a review this year of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free-trade agreement.

On the higher end of BYD's Mexico lineup is a model that might hit a sweet spot among American buyers — if it were available for sale in the U.S.

Nearly three million people have watched YouTube videos featuring a BYD Shark plug-in hybrid pickup from Mexico during road tests in Texas. "There's a huge interest," said André Smirnov of TFL Studios. TFL runs social-media channels reviewing SUVs and pickups and has highlighted BYD's "forbidden fruit" in videos with titles such as "The Truck the U.S. Government DOESN'T Want You to Buy."

The starting price of the BYD Shark in Mexico is around the equivalent of $51,000. It has a plug-in hybrid system, combining a turbocharged engine with dual electric motors for a range of more than 500 miles. It has specific driving modes for mud, sand and snow, as well as a 360-degree camera system to help drivers navigate tight off-road spaces.

"I can't imagine what people would say in a blind testing with BYD models," said Ramón Solís of Grupo Surman, which runs dealerships for BYD and other carmakers in Mexico. "U.S. consumers will soon start seeing what they are missing."

One Mexico City showroom displays BYD models in a space once reserved for Fords.

Slow start

BYD, originally a battery maker, arrived in Europe more than a quarter-century ago with three employees, $30,000 and a container of batteries, according to founder Wang Chuanfu, who became one of China's richest men. EVs didn't show up until 2021.

When the vehicles arrived, BYD surprised rivals by emphasizing technology and features rather than price. Some EVs carried sticker prices north of $80,000, and early sales were disappointing. Stella Li, BYD's international boss, removed the Europe chief. "We don't wait for one quarter, six months, one year to adjust our strategy," she said in an interview.

She recruited Altavilla, who had led the European operations of what was then called Fiat Chrysler. "I told Stella what was my experience in running a car business in Europe — that European consumers are very different from Chinese ones," he recalled.

Local hires helped. Altavilla estimated that some 90% of BYD's European staff were now Europeans. At least a dozen senior sales and marketing executives joined the Chinese company from Fiat Chrysler's successor Stellantis, according to LinkedIn records.

BYD's lineup added smaller cars, which Europeans typically buy, as well as plug-in hybrids for consumers leery of going fully electric. The hybrids, which are charged lower tariffs, account for nearly half of BYD's sales in Western Europe.

"If we focus our strategy on EVs only, we will become another Tesla, with all the bumps, the ups and downs," Altavilla said, "selling a lot in Norway, Denmark and Sweden and selling nothing in Southern Europe."

Rather than hobbling BYD, the EU's tariffs gave the company and its dealers a push, said Bernstein analyst Eunice Lee.

Cracking Germany's market became a priority. In November, buyers there were offered Black Friday discounts worth the equivalent of nearly $19,000 on some models.

BYD is currently positioned in Europe as "the least Chinese of all the Chinese brands," Altavilla said. "This concept needs to evolve into BYD becoming a real European automaker."

Write to Stephen Wilmot at stephen.wilmot@wsj.com and Santiago Pérez at santiago.perez@wsj.com

China's auto demand this year will likely remain broadly flat given front-loading in 2024 and softer momentum into late 2025, HSBC Global Research analysts write in a note. The trade-in subsidies are extended, but the support is scaled back as the amounts are capped relative to vehicle prices, reducing benefits for lower-priced models and making policy less directional than prior years, they say. The EV demand growth is set to moderate to around 15% this year, they add. Some late 2025 demand may roll into early 2026, but this is not enough to alter the normalization trend given weak consumption sentiment in general in China, they say. Among the Chinese automakers, HSBC Global Research favors BYD and XPeng. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)