Home Furnishings Stocks Q3 Recap: Benchmarking Lovesac (NASDAQ:LOVE)

By Nathaniel Baker, Teresa Rivas, Jacob Sonenshine, Todd Chanko, Josh Schafer, and Dan Victor

As 2025 winds to a close, Barron's Investor Circle reporters are, not unexpectedly, already staking out the investment landscape for 2026.

What parts of the market are we bullish on for next year? Within those sectors, what stocks do we like? Do we have any particular favorites?

Internal discussions and brainstorming with market participants identified five segments we think can outperform the S&P 500 in 2026 (in no particular order):

• Restaurant stocks through the AdvisorShares Restaurant ETF
• Home builders and residential real estate proxies via the Hoya Capital Housing ETF
• Consumer staples (State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF)
• Artificial intelligence (Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF)
• Cannabis stocks (AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF)

We discuss each sector in turn, name individual stocks of interest for each, and in several sections even choose our favorite. Read on and supply your comments in the section below!

Restaurants

The argument for restaurant stocks starts with the fact that consumer demand is positioned well. The cyclical nature of the industry means restaurants can enjoy more growth against an encouraging macro backdrop: The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates, and will cut more if the rate of inflation continues to drop toward its 2% goal. It's also pumping $40 billion monthly into the short-term Treasury market, another factor meant to keep fixed-income prices high — and rates low. This will help consumers spend more on going out next year versus 2025. Lower rates tend to boost economic activity gradually, not all at once.

The industry can also benefit from lowered expectations, with relatively easy sales comparisons for 2026. This year, mild inflation and a greater volume of meals sold pushed sales up just over 8% year over year, below the 11.5% annualized growth since 2020, according to our calculations of St. Louis Fed data. The takeaway: growth slowed this year, creating a low-enough base of expansion. As long as people have more money to spend next year and the economy ultimately keeps producing more jobs, continued growth shouldn't be very difficult.

This will expand profit margins because wage growth has been a few percentage points below sales growth. Mix in some fixed costs, and revenue should rise faster than expenses.

If the market expects these trends to continue into 2027, the stocks could rally more.

Individual stocks to watch:

• McDonald's
• Yum! Brands
• Chipotle Mexican Grill
• Restaurant Brands International
• Domino's Pizza

All trade within a point above or below the S&P 500's 22 times forward 12-months earnings, whereas they can trade at substantial premiums in the last five years.

Our favorite: Domino's trades at 22.5 times earnings, versus a more than 50% premium in moments when the market is more confident in its business. That confidence should arrive in 2026, given that analysts expect continued market share gains within the pizza category. Average analyst guidance is for total revenue growth of close to 7%, driven by mild same-store-sales growth and more locations around the world, according to FactSet. Key drivers include a ramp-up of its Uber Eats and DoorDash presence and faster delivery times.

• Jacob Sonenshine

Home builders

Now that the Fed has delivered on its anticipated 25 bps rate cut, a foundation for renewed growth in home formation has been laid. According to a study by Realtor.com, mortgage rates are expected to decline modestly to 6.3% from 2025's 6.6% average, while single-family home housing starts are expected to climb 3.1% to 1 million. Investors may want to allocate room in their 2026 strategy as housing trends stabilize.

Individual stocks to watch:

• Toll Brothers. Home builder of detached and attached homes mainly on both coasts. The stock is up 11% year to date, generates a 6.6% free cash flow yield, and pays a modest 1% dividend.
• La-Z-Boy. The eponymous manufacturer of the legendary chair is down 9.6% year to date but has had a dramatic resurgence in the last quarter, up 16.9%. Who wouldn't want to plop into their new La-Z-Boy in their new den? The stock generates a 7.5% free cash flow yield and offers a 2.43% dividend yield at current prices.
• Truist Financial Corp. The financial holding company provides a range of services to individual and commercial customers. Its stock is up 15.4% this year. Truist generates a 6.9% free cash flow yield and offers a 4.16% dividend yield at current prices.

Our sector favorite: La-Z-Boy. The nearly 100-year old company, founded in a garage in Michigan, enjoys universal brand recognition, trades at a forward P/E multiple of 12.9, and has grown its dividend 10% year over year. It stands to benefit not only from the potential lift in home formation, but also from the continuing preference of streaming new movies over theater attendance, according to a recent AP-NORC Public Affairs poll.

• Todd Chanko

Consumer Staples

Essentials have been anything but when it comes to stock performance: The State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded fund has basically gone nowhere in 2025. In fact, XLP has been a laggard for some time, with owners seeing a measly 16% gain over the past five years, a period when the S&P 500 gained nearly 85%.

Nor can they comfort themselves with the fact that defensives have been out of favor, as the healthcare and utilities sectors have rallied too.

"Everyone — just hit the reset button," was the title of the recent 2026 staples outlook from RBC Capital Markets analyst Nik Modi, who wrote that "2025 has been one of the toughest we can remember in our 25 years covering the consumer staples sector (stock performance and stock-picking!)."

Unfortunately next year doesn't look much better, with the Street nearly universally seeing another tough setup for staples, particularly packaged food, which has continued to be one of the most sluggish areas of the sector. A lack of pricing power and commodity volatility will continue to be hindrances for many of these stocks. GLP-1s are a worry for snack companies, and overall wellness trends mean highly processed foods remain out of favor.

Yet investors don't have to avoid it all together if they look for companies bucking the trend with resilient volumes despite a tough backdrop.

Individual stocks to watch:

• Philip Morris has been a standout in 2025 and that momentum is likely to continue. The company's reduced risk products, including its signature iQos device that heats rather than burns tobacco, will likely continue to see rapid adoption. The shares look cheap after a late-year selloff and sports a juicy dividend.
• Monster Beverage looks like it's another momentum play for 2026. Demand for energy drinks remains high, making it another rare bright spot in staples and Monster looks poised to keep benefiting. The shares aren't cheap but are nonetheless below their five-year average, and it looks like Monster will notch another year of double-digit earnings growth.
• Bellring Brands shares have fallen off a cliff in 2025, but could be a potential underdog -- or long-shot -- for 2026. It's a play on Americans' increasing quest for protein, with ready-to-drink shakes and nutrition bars, but it's been hit with tariffs, raw material problems, and disappointing earnings. Yet with the bar already set low for 2026, the shares could rebound on any unexpected strength. The average analyst target implies some 30% upside while consensus calls for a return to double-digit earnings per share growth, although valuation isn't a steal.

• Teresa Rivas

Artificial Intelligence

The bull case here is rather simple: AI capex continues to ramp higher and companies who are increasingly showing that AI is boosting their sales and profits will keep winning in the market. In other words, exactly what happened in 2025. The AIQ ETF offers a diversified way to express AI optimism with just three of the Magnificent Seven — Alphabet, Apple and Tesla — inside its 10 largest holdings.

Even in 2025 when the AI trade largely rotated away from some of 2023 and 2024's market leaders, AIQ rose about 32%, outperforming the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF and the S&P 500. So this ETF could likely hang on if the AI trade shifts but doesn't fully disappear.

• The stocks listed below are held by AIQ and are also Barron's stock picks.
• Names of interest:
• Alphabet
• Salesforce
• Netflix

• Josh Schafer

Cannabis

The bulls case rests in no small part on legalization efforts, including news that Trump will sign an executive order that reschedules marijuana under Federal law from a Schedule I to Schedule III controlled substance. This should ultimately pave the way for more states to legalize the recreational market, boosting demand that ultimately supports stronger growth and earnings for the major players. Dispensary stocks (MSOs) currently trading over the counter may be eligible to uplist to major exchanges like the Nasdaq or NYSE.

Individual stocks to watch:

• Curaleaf Holdings Inc.
• Trulieve Cannabis Corp.
• Green Thumb Industries
• Tilray Brands
• Canopy Growth Corp.

Our favorite: Curaleaf is the largest holding in the MSOS ETF. The company operates in 17 states with 153 retail locations, making it uniquely positioned to benefit from continued growth in the U.S. cannabis market. Curaleaf also has exposure to multiple countries such as the U.K., Germany, and Australia, each of which are expanding medical marijuana access. Generating $1.3 billion in annual sales, Curaleaf's improving fundamentals warrants a spot on investors' radars.

• Dan Victor

(16:38 GMT) Leggett & Platt Price Target Raised to $12.00/Share From $10.00 by Piper Sandler

By Claudia Assis

Strategy gets snubbed again - but this time it has company

A Carvana used-car "vending machine" in Indianapolis. Shares of Carvana zoomed more than 10% after news of its inclusion in the S&P 500 index.

Carvana and two other companies will join the S&P 500 in about two weeks, S&P Dow Jones Indices said late Friday - dashing the hopes of those investors who expected bigger tech names or a crypto giant to get the honors this time around.

Shares of Carvana (CVNA) rallied more than 10% in after-hours trading Friday.

Joining the online used-car retailer on the premier U.S. stock-market index SPX are building-materials maker CRH (CRH) as well as Comfort Systems USA (FIX), which provides mechanical and electrical services for commercial and industrial buildings. Shares of CRH and Comfort Systems rose 7% and 1%, respectively, in Friday's extended session.

The changes are scheduled to be in place before the market open on Monday, Dec. 22, S&P Dow Jones Indices said. A place in the S&P 500 is a coveted spot for companies as it exposes their shares to a much broader range of investors, including passive funds that track the equity benchmark and actively managed funds that may have restrictions on where they can invest.

The moves are part of a regularly scheduled quarterly rebalance for the index. Contenders for joining the S&P 500 included bitcoin-treasury company Strategy (MSTR), chip maker Marvell Technology (MRVL) and social-media platform Reddit (RDDT).

It was another snub for Strategy, the software company formerly known as MicroStrategy that has become a play on bitcoin (BTCUSD). Last week, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Sandisk (SNDK), a maker of computer-storage devices, was moving to the S&P 500. That change took place days after the announcement.

The index provider has discretion in choosing when and how to make any changes, or even to forgo changes, besides the regularly scheduled rebalances.

Other changes announced Friday included flooring-materials maker Mohawk Industries (MHK) joining the S&P Small Cap 600 index SML and social-media company Pinterest (PINS) moving up to the S&P MidCap 400 index MID.

Carvana's stock has doubled this year, and the company is viewed as a "true disruptor" of the auto-retailing industry, with room to grow market share in a fragmented sector. Competition from the likes of Amazon.com's (AMZN) Amazon Autos is viewed as being far off in the future, if it all.

See also: Carvana survived a debt crunch. Can it survive Amazon?

-Claudia Assis

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