Heating Oil Drops to 1-Month Low

Soybean futures fell toward $9.60 per bushel, near December 2024 lows, amid pressure from favorable US weather, export uncertainty to China, and record harvest forecasts in Brazil.

Prices are down 3% for the week setting for a second weekly losses and 4.5% for the month.

Brazilian agencies project 2025/26 soybean output to surpass 179 million tons, well above USDA estimates.

Meanwhile, tensions escalated as President Trump announced new tariffs—50% on Brazil and 25% on India—alongside threats to penalize China further, increasing risks for US soybean exports.

The USDA expects US soybean shipments to China to fall to 47.5 million tons, while Brazil could reach 112 million.

This shift is rerouting trade toward global trade flows, potentially increasing US exports to the EU, Egypt, and Turkey, while pressuring Ukrainian soybean prices.

In Ukraine, production may drop by over 1 million tons due to a 24% cut in sown area and an added 10% export duty, further weakening prices in September.

Soil moisture for Argentinian crops is improving thanks to timely rains, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. This is particularly true for wheat, which is pressuring Chicago futures. With the wheat crop condition in Argentina over 95% excellent, the country is seen as a strong competitor to the U.S. With fresh tariffs unsettling existing supply chain norms for grains, Argentina's strength in wheat may detract from U.S. business. CBOT wheat is down 1.2%, while corn falls 0.7% and soybeans rise 0.1%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

Crude futures extend losses after U.S. July payrolls come in below expectations and job gains for the previous two months are revised down sharply. That adds to demand concerns with U.S. import tariffs set to take effect Aug. 7. "This is definitely a macro-driven selloff," says CIBC Private Wealth US senior energy trader Rebecca Babin. The tariff headlines "are shaping up to be a little bit on the worse side of what was expected." On the positive side, the soft employment data puts September in play for a Fed rate cut, "but weakening economic numbers is something that the market has really been fearing," Babin adds. Also on the bearish side, OPEC+ is expected to agree to another large output increase in September at its Sunday meeting. WTI is down 2.8% at $67.33 a barrel and Brent is off 2.9% at $69.66. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

By Robb M. Stewart

Shares on Canada's main exchange were tracking toward a drop for the week with declines Friday after President Trump ramped up its tariff regime with higher levies on Canada and taxes on goods imported from many other countries.

In midday trading, the Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX Composite Index was 0.8% lower at 27047.17. That has it trading down 1.6% for the week, narrowing the year-to-date advance to 9.4%.

Technology and finance stocks led broad losses, with mining one of the only sectors to notch a rise.

The blue-chip S&P/TSX 60 was down 0.8% at 1606.93.

The major Canadian banks were each lower, with Toronto-Dominion Bank losing 0.9% and Royal Bank of Canada dropping 0.5%.

The price of gold jumped as safe-haven demand increased and following a U.S. jobs report for July that showed fewer new jobs were added than what economists had anticipated. That buoyed miners of the metal, with Barrick Gold ahead 0.8%, Kinross Gold 0.4% stronger and B2Gold up 3.2%.

President Trump on Thursday signed an executive order that will see the U.S. raise tariffs on scores of nations, effective Aug. 7, ending an extended pause on import taxes first imposed in April then put on hold to allow for negotiations. Trump also announced he was raising tariffs on Canada to 35% from 25% for goods that don't comply with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, effective Friday.

Prime Minister Mark Carney said he was disappointed with Trump's decision to again target Canada

Other market movers:

MDA Space's shares climbed 16% to C$45.04 after the company secured an initial $1.3 billion contract to produce satellites for EchoStar's new low-orbit satellite constellation. The value of the contract could rise to $2.5 billion if options are taken up for a full initial configuration of a network of more than 200 satellites.

Telus fell 2% to C$21.88 in the wake of a deal to sell a minority stake in its cell-phone towers in Canada for 1.26 billion Canadian dollars ($909 million) and the company posted a second-quarter loss thanks to an impairment charge.

Imperial Oil declined 1.6% to C$113.70 after the Exxon Mobil-controlled energy company reported second-quarter earnings that were squeezed in by a drop in oil prices, which more than offset increased production.

Fortis rose 2% to C$69.14 on news the St. John's, Newfoundland, utility's earnings rose in the latest quarter thanks to growth in the asset base across its utilities.

TransAlta's shares were up 4.1% at C$17.36 after the utility swung to a loss in the second quarter as revenue fell, though it held to its financial guidance for the year.

Shares of Ballard Power Systems dipped 1.2% to C$2.51 after the fuel cell company launched plans to tighten its product focus, manage cash and cut operating costs by at least 30% in 2026 in an effort to achieve positive cash flow by year-end 2027.

Write to Robb M. Stewart at robb.stewart@wsj.com

Crude oil and refined product futures were seeing sharp losses heading into Friday afternoon as markets were buffeted by economic uncertainty and the prospect of another large production increase by OPEC nations and their allies.

Crude and RBOB prices were down by about just under 3% at 11:20 a.m. ET while ULSD futures were seeing losses approaching 4%. Even with the day's deep declines, crude contracts were on track to end the week with gains.

Crude losses were approaching $2/bbl, with the September West Texas Intermediate crude contract falling by $1.90 to $67.36/bbl while October prices were $2.01 lower to $66.19/bbl. The front-month contract is still about $2/bbl over last week's finish. October Brent crude was down by $2.03 to $69.67/bbl and November prices were $2.13 in the red to $68.67/bbl.

ULSD futures were down by nearly 10cts/gal, with the September contract tumbling 9.76cts to $2.2983/gal and October prices off by 9.61cts to $2.2947/gal. The front-month contract is off nearly 11cts/gal from last Friday.

RBOB losses were topping 6cts/gal, with the front-month contract down 6.49cts to $2.1090/gal and October prices moving 6.48cts lower to $1.9620/gal. The front-month contract is still about 1ct/gal higher than last week.

Prices are facing stiff headwinds Friday, as equity markets are also tumbling as President Trump imposed tariffs on U.S. trading partners who had not reached trade deals with the U.S. Adding to worries about the future strength the U.S. economy is the Friday release of a disappointing jobs report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday reported nonfarm U.S. payroll growth at 73,000 for July, well below analysts' estimates. The bureau also lowered reports for May and June by a total 258,000 from previously announced figures.

The worries about slowing economic activity come as Reuters on Friday reported that OPEC and its allies are expected to approve additional production increases for September when they meet Sunday. The OPEC+ group has already approved output hikes of 411,000 b/d for May, June and July along with a hike of 548,000 b/d starting this month. The size of the hike under consideration for next month is unclear.

This content was created by Oil Price Information Service, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. OPIS is run independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

• Reporting by Steve Cronin, scronin@opisnet.com; Editing by Michael Kelly, mkelly@opisnet.com