Harvard Economist Admits $100 BTC Prediction Fail, Blames Regulation and Underground Economy

World Liberty Financial has detailed its first plans to release tradable tokens to early investors on September 1, marking a significant step for the DeFi project backed by President Donald Trump and his family. 

The project plans to unlock 20% of tokens purchased by early supporters in two funding rounds, priced at $0.015 and $0.05 per token. The remaining 80% will be unlocked subject to a subsequent governance vote. Tokens allocated to founders, team members, and advisors will remain locked, according to World Liberty's announcement. 

Investors will be able to activate an onchain "Lockbox," which will verify compliance, starting on Monday, Aug. 25. "The vast majority are approved to connect and activate immediately," the project said. "Only a limited number that don’t meet compliance requirements are restricted from using the Lockbox."

WLFI holders unanimously voted in July to make the Ethereum-based token tradable, as World Liberty continues to push adoption of its USD1 stablecoin, teasing a loyalty program for users and pursuing a Coinbase listing. 

Perps debut over $0.40

On Saturday, the first official pre-market perpetual futures trading contracts for WLFI were listed on exchanges Binance, Bybit, and OKX. On the exchanges, the price hovered between $0.40 and $0.42 on Saturday morning shortly after launch, implying a fully diluted valuation of over $40 billion for the project, given its 100 billion WLFI token supply. 

If that price is matched by spot markets once the tokens become unlocked, the Trump family's stake of 22.5 billion tokens, held by the holding company DT Marks DEFI LLC, would be worth over $9 billion, though the tokens won't be immediately unlocked. Trump's personal stake at the end of last year, according to a financial disclosure, was 15.75 billion tokens, which would be worth over $6 billion, doubling Trump's current estimated net worth reported by Forbes. 

Trump has been criticized by political opponents for his stake in the project, with some Democrats calling it a potential avenue for corruption. Conflict-of-interest guardrails pushed by Democrats largely failed to make it into the text of the GENIUS Act, the stablecoin-focused legislation that was signed into law by Trump in July. 

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

© 2025 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

The legal battle between Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may be over, but the stream of interesting news surrounding the company is far from finished.

In this article, we dive into the latest developments and examine the price dynamics of XRP.Partnerships, SEC Case Update, and More

Ripple has recently taken center stage due to its involvement with other projects. Earlier this week, TRM Labs introduced Beacon Network (described as “the first real-time crypto crime response network).

Ripple reposted the news on its official X account, saying it is “proud” to be a founding member of the project. “Working with industry & law enforcement, Beacon helps stop illicit funds before they exit the blockchain,” the announcement reads.

Just a few days later, Ripplecollaboratedwith the Japanese financial giant SBI Holdings. The focus of the agreement is to distribute the company’s stablecoin RLUSD through the licensed subsidiary, SBI VC Trade.

“The introduction of RLUSD will not just expand the option of stablecoins in the Japanese market, but is a major step forward in the reliability and convenience of stablecoins,” said SBI VC Trade CEO Tomohiko Kondo.

This is not the first financial institution to get involved with Ripple’s product. Other well-known names that have previously supported it include the oldest bank in the USA,BNY Mellon, and the Swiss AMINA Bank.

What’s perhaps more intriguing is the latest development on the SEC vs. Ripple battlefront, where both parties have taken another important step to resolve their legal argument. The Second Circuit finallyapprovedtheir joint stipulation of dismissal.XRP Price Outlook

Ripple’s cross-border token had declined by almost 10% over the past week, dropping to under $2.8 amid a recent selling spree by whales.

However, the landscape changed yesterday evening after Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. XRP, also fueled by the aforementioned update in the lawsuit against the SEC, flew from $2.8 to $3.1 within minutes before it settled at the current $3.05.

Before this price revival, the popular X user Ali Martinez outlined that the TD Sequential had flashed a buy signal. For their part, CRYPTOWZRD described $2.80 as the main daily support target, saying that the next resistance target is above $3.30 while a new ATH is possible on a sustained bullish reversal.XRP ETF on the Way?

Ever since the historical launch of spot BTC and ETH ETFs in the USA, the Ripple community has been eagerly awaiting the introduction of a similar product with XRP as the underlying asset. If approved, it will enable investors to purchase shares in a fund that directly holds the token, providing exposure to its price movements.

The companies that have filed to launch such an investment vehicle include Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, WisdomTree, 21Shares, and many more. Earlier in August, the odds of approval before the end of 2025 had slipped to nearly 50%, while Polymarket currently estimates a chance of over 80%.

There was a big update on this matter as well, which helped raise the odds. The SEC had delayed making a decision on the aforementioned filings by these companies. However, the potential ETF issuers responded swiftly, updating their applications as the October deadline approaches.

XRP appears ready for a strong upward move. Recent developments, like the coordinated XRP ETF filings, rising approval chances, and the official end of the lawsuit, are fueling bullish speculation. 

Analysts are closely watching technical signals and suggest that the next move for XRP could be significant.

XRP ETF Filings Gain Momentum

After the official dismissal of the SEC’s long-running case against Ripple Labs, several major asset managers, including Canary, CoinShares, Franklin Templeton, 21Shares, WisdomTree, Grayscale, and Bitwise, updated their XRP ETF registration filings. 

ETF expert Nate Geraci called it a “very good sign” for XRP ETFs, highlighting growing momentum in the market.

The odds of a spot XRP ETF approval have also hit 85%, and XRP-focused ETFs like Teucrium and ProShares have already added hundreds of millions in assets.

Ripple Ecosystem Growth

On the ecosystem side, XRP Ledger also continues to expand. RLUSD is nearing $700 million in assets and saw a 15% jump in 30-day transaction volume to $2.7 billion. 

Analyst Altcoin Gordon notes that XRP/BTC is on the verge of breaking its 8-year downtrend. He cites several bullish factors like the ETF approval, partnerships with Japan’s SBI Holdings, and massive upgrades to the XRPL.

Price Targets and Technical Outlook

Analyst Dark Defender expects XRP to form a similar Bull Flag to the one seen in November 2024, when the token climbed from $1.13 to $2.40. He identifies key support at $3 to $2.85 and potential targets between $4.39 and $5.85, signaling that XRP could be preparing for another significant upward move.

Analyst BarriC is even more optimistic. He predicts explosive price action for XRP over the coming months and into early 2026. He expects XRP to surpass $4 soon, potentially reaching a double-digit all-time high of $10–$15. 

He anticipates another major rally in early 2026 that could push prices toward $50. If banks begin adopting and using XRP, he predicts the token could experience unprecedented gains, starting at $1,000 or more.

Pullback Before the Rally?

Another analyst, Zach Rector, says that XRP could easily double ahead of U.S. spot ETF launches. But drawing parallels to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, he says that a pullback is likely once approvals arrive. The SEC’s delay until late October 2025 sets the stage for months of speculative buying. But strong institutional inflows could ease the selling pressure. 

XRP is currently trading around $3.03, showing a mostly neutral technical outlook. Although the short-term averages lean slightly bearish, longer-term averages remain bullish. 

Overall, XRP sits at a key level, with potential for a breakout if momentum picks up.

In the daily time frame, the ETC price has added around 14% today as the price has broken out of its downtrend by conquering the critical resistance level at $21.

This breakout indicates a short-term positive momentum for Ethereum Classic. Now, traders as well as investors will be looking towards higher levels as technical price indicators are aligning with a bullish story alongside derivatives data.

ETC Price Today Clears Key Resistance

As observed on the chart, it’s been witnessed that after months of weakness, finally, Q3 is seeing bullish demand, and the ETC price today has just moved decisively above the $21 threshold.

This marks a significant reversal from the December 2024 downtrend. The surge comes at a time when broader macroeconomic conditions due to higher hopes for rate cuts have boosted investor confidence across crypto markets, fueling renewed interest in Ethereum Classic.

Corporate adoption of crypto in treasury management is growing rapidly. In the first half of 2025, the tally of public companies holding BTC nearly doubled, according to a report from K33 Research.

K33 revealed that between December 2024 and June 2025, the number of listed firms with Bitcoin (BTC) on their balance sheets climbed from 70 to 134, amassing a total of 244,991 BTC.

The trend is drawing comparisons to earlier waves of corporate gold adoption. “There are clear parallels, particularly around providing a means for investors to access an underlying asset which they may have previously struggled to access,” Mike Foy, chief financial officer at AMINA Bank, told Cointelegraph.

Foy said the movement's sustainability hinges on market specifics and regulatory environments. “Time will tell if this becomes a sustainable trend, but it is clear that strategy has a first mover advantage,” he noted, adding that companies in jurisdictions with limited access to institutional crypto products stand to benefit the most.

It’s been another big week in crypto, with central banks, regulators, and markets all making moves that could shape the months ahead. From record-setting rallies to new laws and fresh government experiments with digital assets, the markets are shifting fast.

Missed any or all of it? Here’s your full catch-up.

#1 Powell Hints at Rate Cuts but Stays Wary on Inflation

Jerome Powell’s final Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chair was cautious but telling. He noted the policy rate is now “100 basis points closer to neutral” than last year, leaving the door open for a rate cut. But Powell also warned that tariffs and tighter immigration policies are adding to inflation risks and straining the labour market.

“We will not allow a one-time increase in the price level to become an ongoing inflation problem,” he stressed, referencing the Fed’s delicate balancing act.

#2 Ethereum Hits New All-Time High, Flips Mastercard

Ethereum has smashed through its previous record, hitting a new all-time high above $4,878 after Fed Chair Powell signaled a possible rate cut. The rally has been powered by heavy inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs, now managing over $20 billion, and growing adoption by corporate treasuries. Nate Geraci put it simply: ether is being seen as the “backbone of future financial markets.”

The momentum also pushed ETH past Mastercard, making it the 22nd largest asset worldwide.

#3 Illinois Passes First-of-Its-Kind Crypto Bills

Illinois is stepping up against crypto fraud. Governor JB Pritzker has signed two new laws, the Digital Assets and Consumer Protection Act and the Digital Asset Kiosk Act, bringing tighter oversight for exchanges and crypto ATMs. The rules include mandatory registration, scam refunds, fee caps, and limits on transactions for new users.

With residents losing $272 million to scams in 2024, the state says these measures will protect consumers while still allowing innovation. Pritzker also hit out at Trump’s push for deregulation.

#4 CFTC Kicks Off Next ‘Crypto Sprint,’ Seeks Public Feedback

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has launched the next phase of its “crypto sprint”, asking the public to weigh in on spot crypto trading rules.

The sprint is part of a four-step agenda running alongside the SEC’s Project Crypto. Public comments close on October 20, with final rules expected in the last phase.

#5 EU Looks at Ethereum, Solana for Digital Euro

The European Union is rethinking how its digital euro should be built.

According to the Financial Times, officials are now looking at public blockchains like Ethereum and Solana, a big shift from earlier plans for a private network. The change comes after the U.S. passed the Genius Act, fueling a surge in dollar-pegged stablecoins. The European Central Bank said it is exploring “different technologies – both centralised and decentralised.” A digital euro on public chains would also open the door to DeFi integration across Europe.

#6 Kanye’s YZY Token Soars 1,400%, Then Crashes 74%

Kanye West’s YZY token delivered the kind of chaos memecoins are known for.

Launched on Solana, it spiked 1,400% to $3 within an hour, then crashed 74% to $0.77 in less than a day. While over 56,000 wallets jumped in, the real winners were just 13 traders who walked away with $24.5 million in profits. Blockchain data shows insiders controlled 94% of supply at launch, with one multisig wallet holding 87%. For most investors, the hype ended in heavy losses.

#7 Cynthia Lummis Targets Thanksgiving for U.S. Crypto Bill

Sen. Cynthia Lummis is racing the clock to deliver America’s long-awaited crypto market structure bill. Speaking at the SALT Wyoming Blockchain Symposium, she said Congress aims to get legislation to the president’s desk before Thanksgiving. The draft, backed by Tim Scott and other Republicans, promises clearer rules separating digital asset securities from commodities.

But while Lummis is betting on bipartisan support, opposition from Democrats like Elizabeth Warren could slow the push. For now, the spotlight is firmly on the Senate.

#8 China Eyes Yuan-Pegged Stablecoins

China is preparing to enter the stablecoin race and this time, the yuan is at the center. Reports state that the State Council will review a roadmap later this month for yuan-backed stablecoins, marking a sharp turn from Beijing’s 2021 crypto ban. Hong Kong will drive offshore issuance under its new Stablecoins Ordinance, while Shanghai takes charge of domestic trials.

The plan aims to cut reliance on the U.S. dollar and push the yuan deeper into global finance, where its share still lags below 3%.

#9 Philippines Plans 10,000 National Bitcoin Reserve

The Philippines may soon treat Bitcoin as national wealth. A new bill from lawmaker Migz Villafuerte proposes building a 10,000 BTC reserve, with the central bank buying 2,000 coins each year for five years. The holdings, worth about $1.15 billion today, would be locked for at least 20 years and only used to pay off government debt.

Supporters call it protection against inflation and peso weakness, while critics warn the money could be better spent on schools, healthcare, or infrastructure.

#10 SEC Chair: Most Crypto Tokens Don’t Qualify as Securities

SEC Chair Paul Atkins says the agency is rethinking how it looks at digital assets. Speaking at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium, Atkins stressed that “very few…tokens are securities” and called for rules that adapt to the industry’s growth.

He unveiled Project Crypto, a set of initiatives aimed at clear standards, safe harbors for token launches, and updated custody rules. Backed by Congress’ CLARITY Act and Trump’s pro-crypto agenda, Washington wants to reset how crypto is regulated.

In the Spotlight 

Here’s a few quick hits you shouldn’t miss!

Kroll Faces Class Action After FTX Breach: FTX creditors accuse claims agent Kroll of poor security and reliance on email, leaving users open to phishing scams and financial losses. Plaintiffs demand stricter safeguards.

Crypto IPOs Build $15B Pipeline in U.S.: Circle and Bullish already listed, Gemini and Figure filed with Ripple’s backing, while Bloomberg names Circle and Coreweave among 2025’s standout IPO performers.

Wyoming Launches First State-Backed Stablecoin FRNT: The token is fully backed, overcollateralized, and live across seven blockchains, with Kraken and Rain set to bring it directly to consumers.

Bullish Raises $1.15B IPO Entirely in Stablecoins: The exchange’s public debut was fully settled in tokens from Circle, Paxos, PayPal, Ripple, and others, marking a first for U.S. markets.

ALT5 Sigma Denies SEC Probe After $1.5B Trump Deal: The firm rejected reports linking exec Jon Isaac to an investigation, but shares still tumbled over 10% and slid further after-hours.

What’s Next for Crypto?

Major shifts to expect ahead 

• U.S. policy window opens: With Powell softening his tone and Congress racing on market-structure bills, the next few months could finally bring real clarity on how crypto is regulated in America.
• Ethereum steps into the spotlight: Fresh highs, record ETF inflows and corporate treasury interest are pushing ETH closer to becoming core infrastructure for both Wall Street and governments testing digital money.
• Stablecoins go mainstream: Wyoming’s state-backed token and Bullish’s IPO settled fully in stablecoins show how far they’ve come. Banks will feel the heat as cheaper, faster payments win ground.
• Global rules tighten: From Illinois’ new consumer protections to China’s yuan-backed pilot, regulators everywhere are drawing lines. After the Kroll lawsuit, security and compliance will only get louder.
• Asian governments test Bitcoin reserves: The Philippines’ plan for a 10,000 BTC reserve sets an interesting precedent. If it moves forward, other countries in the region may follow with their own experiments.

Markets, regulators, and institutions are reshaping the space. We’ll bring you the key headlines in our next digest.