Gold Steadies As Fed Officials Express Mixed Views On Rate Cuts

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NZD/USD Remains in Downtrend

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AUD/NZD Key Reversal?

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On Sunday, the Israeli military (IDF) issued new evacuation orders for parts of central Gaza, which even after years of war with Hamas is an area where Israeli ground forces have rarely operated, further restricting access between Deir al-Balah and the southern cities of Rafah and Khan Younis.

This strongly suggests that indirect efforts to achieve another ceasefire are far from producing anything effective, and it points to Prime Minister Netanyahu pursuing his ultra-controversial plan for mass resettlement of Gaza's Palestinian population.

Netanyahu has continued to assert that intensifying military pressure in Gaza could compel Hamas to negotiate on terms favorable to Israel and for the return of remaining hostages.

At this moment, the Israeli military claims to control at least 65% of land in Gaza. This is after 21 months of war triggered by the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas terror attack, which many have considered to be "Israel's 9/11".

The Hostages Family Forum, which represents many of the families of hostages, has condemned the evacuation announcement - as it signals the going pursuit of a military solution to the crisis. Families have continued to demand that Netanyahu strike a peace deal, for the return of all remaining living and deceased hostages.

"Enough! The Israeli people overwhelmingly want an end to the fighting and a comprehensive agreement that will return all of the hostages," the forum said Saturday on the occasion of tens of thousands of protesters marching in Tel Aviv to the US Embassy location.

Meanwhile, 65 Palestinians were reported killed Sunday while trying to access humanitarian aid, according to local hospitals, amid growing international spotlight on a controversial program which has seen a US security firm try to spearhead aid distribution.

There are also ongoing concerns of famine and unprecedented levels of malnutrition among the Palestinian population, and reports of more children dying.

Most of the Strip's population is now internally displaced, and there's as yet no relief or no end in sight to the conflict which has taken tens of thousands of lives. But Netanyahu is determined to never allow Hamas to rise to rule again - but rooting it out is proving harder than thought.

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New Zealand's annual consumer inflation accelerated in the second quarter but was below economists' forecasts, leading markets to narrow the odds on a rate cut next month given weakness in the broader economy.

Annual inflation came in at 2.7% in the second quarter, its highest level in a year, and speeding up from the 2.5% rate in the first quarter, Statistics New Zealand said in a statement on Monday. However, economists had forecast inflation at 2.8%.

The statistics agency attributed the uptick to an increase in local government taxes and housing rental prices.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the consumer price index rose 0.5%, compared with a 0.9% increase in the first quarter.

Economists in a Reuters poll had forecast a 0.6% rise for the quarter.

The New Zealand dollar dipped 0.3% to $0.5941 following the data release. Markets are now pricing in a 75% chance that the central bank will cut by 25 basis points in August, up from a 61% chance ahead of the data.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which in May forecast annual inflation for the quarter at 2.6%, held interest rates steady at this month's policy meeting partly due to near-term price risks.

It was the first pause in the RBNZ's easing cycle that began in August 2024, a period in which it slashed rates by 225 basis points to 3.25%.

The uncertainty around U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies and the impact on global growth and prices have kept most policymakers, including the RBNZ, on edge.

New Zealand's annual inflation is nudging nearer to the upper end of the central bank's 1% to 3% target band. But economists say that with medium-term inflation expected to remain contained and considerable spare capacity in the economy, a rate cut in August remains likely.

ASB Bank senior economist Mark Smith said ASB's core judgment is that the RBNZ will accommodate or look through the tick up in near-term inflation as the weakening global outlook and the large margin of spare capacity imply a lower medium-term inflation outlook.

“After earlier tapping the monetary policy brakes, the RBNZ is expected to press the accelerator and actively provide policy support," Smith said in a note.

Annual non-tradeable inflation rose 3.7% in the second quarter, its lowest level since the second quarter of 2021, according to Statistics New Zealand.

Source: Reuters

The fringe far-right Sanseito party emerged as one of the biggest winners in Japan's upper house election on Sunday, gaining support with warnings of a "silent invasion" of immigrants, and pledges for tax cuts and welfare spending.

Birthed on YouTube during the COVID-19 pandemic spreading conspiracy theories about vaccinations and a cabal of global elites, the party broke into mainstream politics with its "Japanese First" campaign.

The party won 14 seats adding to the single lawmaker it secured in the 248-seat chamber three years ago. It has only three seats in the more powerful lower house.

"The phrase Japanese First was meant to express rebuilding Japanese people's livelihoods by resisting globalism. I am not saying that we should completely ban foreigners or that every foreigner should get out of Japan," Sohei Kamiya, the party's 47-year-old leader, said in an interview with local broadcaster Nippon Television after the election.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner Komeito lost their majority in the upper house, leaving them further beholden to opposition support following a lower house defeat in October.

"Sanseito has become the talk of the town, and particularly here in America, because of the whole populist and anti-foreign sentiment. It's more of a weakness of the LDP and Ishiba than anything else," said Joshua Walker, head of the U.S. non-profit Japan Society.

In polling ahead of Sunday's election, 29% of voters told NHK that social security and a declining birthrate were their biggest concern. A total of 28% said they worried about rising rice prices, which have doubled in the past year. Immigration was in joint fifth place with 7% of respondents pointing to it.

"We were criticized as being xenophobic and discriminatory. The public came to understand that the media was wrong and Sanseito was right," Kamiya said.

Kamiya's message grabbed voters frustrated with a weak economy and currency that has lured tourists in record numbers in recent years, further driving up prices that Japanese can ill afford, political analysts say.

Japan's fast-ageing society has also seen foreign-born residents hit a record of about 3.8 million last year, though that is just 3% of the total population, a fraction of the corresponding proportion in the United States and Europe.

INSPIRED BY TRUMP

Kamiya, a former supermarket manager and English teacher, told Reuters before the election that he had drawn inspiration from U.S. President Donald Trump's "bold political style".

He has also drawn comparisons with Germany's AfD and Reform UK although right-wing populist policies have yet to take root in Japan as they have in Europe and the United States.

Post-election, Kamiya said he plans to follow the example of Europe's emerging populist parties by building alliances with other small parties rather than work with an LDP administration, which has ruled for most of Japan's postwar history.

Sanseito’s focus on immigration has already shifted Japan's politics to the right. Just days before the vote, Ishiba’s administration announced a new government taskforce to fight "crimes and disorderly conduct" by foreign nationals and his party has promised a target of "zero illegal foreigners".

Kamiya, who won the party's first seat in 2022 after gaining notoriety for appearing to call for Japan's emperor to take concubines, has tried to tone down some controversial ideas formerly embraced by the party.

During the campaign, Kamiya, however, faced a backlash for branding gender equality policies a mistake that encourage women to work and keep them from having children.

To soften what he said was his "hot-blooded" image and to broaden support beyond the men in their twenties and thirties that form the core of Sanseito's support, Kamiya fielded a raft of female candidates on Sunday.

Those included the single-named singer Saya, who clinched a seat in Tokyo.

Like other opposition parties, Sanseito called for tax cuts and an increase in child benefits, policies that led investors to fret about Japan's fiscal health and massive debt pile, but unlike them it has a far bigger online presence from where it can attack Japan's political establishment.

Its YouTube channel has 400,000 followers, more than any other party on the platform and three times that of the LDP, according to socialcounts.org.

Sanseito's upper house breakthrough, Kamiya said, is just the beginning.

"We are gradually increasing our numbers and living up to people's expectations. By building a solid organization and securing 50 or 60 seats, I believe our policies will finally become reality," he said.

Reporting by Tim Kelly and John Geddie and Kantaro Komiya; Editing by Clarence Fernandez, Dale Hudson and Lincoln Feast.

Source: Reuters