Gold Holds Ground Ahead of Fed Rate Decision — Market Talk

Iron ore futures slipped below CNY 800 per tonne on Monday, pulling back from multi-week highs as lackluster economic data from top consumer China underscored persistent property sector weakness.

New home prices fell 0.3% in August from the prior month, extending a decline that began in May 2023 and reflecting subdued housing demand.

Industrial output and retail sales also came in below forecasts amid soft domestic consumption and Beijing’s efforts to curb overcapacity, while the jobless rate edged higher.

Separately, China’s seaborne imports totaled 25.6 Mt last week, well above the five-year average of 22.1 Mt, while August imports as a whole reached nearly 112.40 Mt, buoyed by record seasonal shipments from Brazil and the clearing of port backlogs after late-July typhoon disruptions.

UK Gas decreased to 75.05 GBp/thm, the lowest since August 2025.

Over the past 4 weeks, Natural Gas UK GBP lost 0.49%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 6.77%.

Spending on coal mines in China rose by much more than spending on other kinds of mines there in the first half of the year, Citi analyst Ephrem Ravi says in a note. Ravi estimates coal-mining capital expenditure in China rose by 14% year-over-year in the first six months of 2025. By comparison, overall mining capex in China rose by 3.4% over the same period, he says. Ravi points to China's continued reliance on coal as its dominant energy source, despite an ongoing shift to lower-carbon energy. He also notes that 2H spending will be a more critical read on China's coal investments, given 1H typically only accounts for a third of the country's annual coal capex. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

Merdeka Copper Gold is poised to realize value from the listing of subsidiary Merdeka Gold Resources on the Indonesia Stock Exchange on Sept. 23, Maybank Sekuritas Indonesia analysts say in a research report. The subsidiary's flagship asset, Pani Gold Project in Indonesia's Gorontalo, has 7.0 million ounces of gold resources and earnings could reach around $106 million in 2026, the analysts estimate. Backed by integrated heap leach and carbon-in-leach infrastructure, the project's total peak processing capacity is 19.0 million tons a year. The brokerage raises the stock's target price to IDR2,800.00 from IDR2,400.00 after lifting its long-term gold price forecast to $2,800/oz from $2,600/oz. Shares are 0.8% lower at IDR2,510.00. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

By Sherry Qin

The gold-mining arm of China's biggest miner is readying a public offering that could value it at about $40 billion at the top end of some estimates.

Zijin Gold International, comprised of the overseas gold assets of Chinese state-backed Zijin Mining Group, is planning to start trading on the Hong Kong exchange after spinning off from its parent.

That comes against a backdrop of record-high gold prices, buoyed by demand for safe-haven assets amid market volatility, and by central bank buying. Investor appetite for Hong Kong offerings has been robust too, heating up the city's IPO market and making it the No. 1 destination for listings so far this year.

Zijin Gold has now passed the listing hearing, according to an exchange filing late Sunday. The timeline, offering size and pricing range have not been finalized.

Dual-listed Zijin Mining, which trades in both China and Hong Kong, had previously said that the aim of the spinoff is to build a leading international gold company, and boost its own valuation.

A report by HSBC analysts in May had estimated that Zijin Gold's market capitalization could be as high as US$20 billion. Earlier this month, Douglas Research Advisory, which publishes on Smartkarma gave a valuation estimate of over US$40 billion, coming after a continued surge in prices of precious metal.

The company plans to use the net proceeds to pay for the acquisition of the Raygorodok gold mine in Kazakhstan, and for upgrading and construction projects at existing mines.

Zijin Gold made US$2.99 billion in revenue last year, up 32%, while its net profit more than doubled to US$481.4 million.

Analysts reckon that was primarily due to higher average selling prices, as investors snapped up gold amid heightened geopolitical tensions and a weakening U.S. dollar.

Spot gold prices have rallied 39% so far this year to US$3,641.54 per troy ounce.

Holding interests in eight gold mines across Central Asia, South America and other areas, Zijin Gold produced 1.3 million ounces of the yellow metal in 2024 and has the ninth-largest gold reserves in the world.

Citi analysts think the upcoming IPO could spur a re-evaluation of Zijin Mining's shares.

"Post completion, we expect it to pave the way for future M&A in Zijin's gold business in the coming 2-3 years," they wrote in report earlier this year.

The miner's Hong Kong-listed shares were last 0.2% higher at HK$29.72 while its mainland shares were up 0.8%.

Zijin Gold has appointed Morgan Stanley and Citic Securities as joint sponsors for the initial public offering, a draft prospectus showed.

Write to Sherry Qin at sherry.qin@wsj.com

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