Oil prices and energy stocks fall sharply on Trump’s new Ukraine peace plan

Canadian consumer spending slowed in the third quarter as a painful trade war with the US persisted and population growth continued to wind down.

Retail sales grew 0.2% between July and September after growing 0.3% in the previous quarter, according to Statistics Canada data Friday. September sales fell 0.7%, matching the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists, while a flash estimate suggested October sales were flat.

The quarterly retail figures — the weakest pace in more than a year — underscore consumer caution around spending in the face of economic and tariff uncertainty. They also likely reflect federal immigration curbs that have slowed Canada's once-explosive population gains to a crawl.

The Bank of Canada plans to move to the sidelines after cutting its benchmark overnight rate to 2.25%, saying rates are at "about the right level" if the economy and inflation evolve as it expects. The central bank foresees household consumption slowing due to the immigration changes and a soft labor market.

In volume terms, retail sales fell 0.3% on the quarter and dropped 0.8% in September. Overall, sales were down in six of nine subsectors that month, led by autos, a volatile category this year amid US tariffs. Bank of Canada surveys have shown Canadians expect the levies to cause vehicle prices to surge.

Motor vehicle sales fell 2.9% in September, the first decline in three months and led by lower receipts at new car dealers. Still, auto purchases were still up 7.4% in the first nine months of the year compared with the same period last year, likely reflecting a rush by some consumers to get ahead of the tariff impacts.

Excluding autos, sales rose 0.2% on the month, beating economists' expectations for a 0.5% decline.

Core retail sales, which exclude gas stations and car dealers, were relatively unchanged in September. The largest decrease to core retail sales came from building material and garden equipment dealers, which fell 2% and recorded a third monthly drop, while sales also dipped at general merchandise stores.

The largest increase to core retail sales came from food and beverage retailers, which rose 0.8% and were led by growth at beer, wine and liquor retailers, followed by supermarkets and grocery stores.

In September, sales declined in six of 10 provinces. The largest provincial decrease in dollar terms was seen in Ontario, the country's manufacturing heartland, which dropped 1.2% while sales in Toronto were down 2.3%. British Columbia saw a decline of 0.9%, with a 1% drop in Vancouver.

The statistics agency didn't provide details for the October estimate, which is based on responses from 54.2% of companies surveyed.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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The Consumer Credit Bill 2025, which provides broader consumer protection by regulating excessive fees and through the practice of ethical debt collection, is expected to take effect in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q2026), the Consumer Credit Oversight Board (CCOB) said.

CCOB Task Force chief Abu Hassan Alshari Yahaya said the board is currently awaiting the bill's gazettement and subsequent steps to establish the Consumer Credit Commission.

He said the Act's implementation will enable the government to licence non-bank credit providers, including buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) companies, which are currently operating without supervision.

"The main objective of this Act is to regulate the consumer credit sector and enhance consumer protection, especially for those dealing with currently unregulated lenders. We want to ensure they operate fairly, responsibly and transparently," he told Bernama.

According to the Ministry of Finance, the Consumer Credit Bill 2025 was passed in the Senate on Sept 4, and is expected to be gazetted by the end of this year.

Abu Hassan said once the law is gazetted, CCOB will issue mandatory guidelines and standards that all licensed lenders and credit service providers must comply with.

"We will provide clarity on 'fit and proper' requirements and the operating standards that must be met when the licensing process begins," he said.

Under the act, lending companies will undergo due diligence and assessment to determine their ability to operate fairly when offering licensed BNPL services.

Commenting on the trend in the BNPL sector, Abu Hassan explained that the use of BNPL facilities continued to rise this year, with the number of active users reaching nearly 6.5 million in the first half of 2025.

"We expect this trend to continue growing," he added, noting that CCOB will closely monitor debt risks among users.

Abu Hassan said 70% of the current BNPL users earn less than RM5,000 a month, while 40% are youth.

"Both groups may be more vulnerable to financial risk. Even though the loan amounts are small, uncontrolled debt accumulation can create vulnerabilities. That is why regulation is so important," he said.

Currently, 16 BNPL companies operate in Malaysia, with three major players controlling roughly 90% of the market.

Abu Hassan also advised youths to use BNPL services prudently.

He stressed that using financial products must be accompanied by skills and financial knowledge.

"BNPL has its benefits, but users should be aware of the fees and terms and conditions, and make a careful assessment before borrowing," he added.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Source: reuters

Source: Euronews

Japan will likely lean more heavily on the US and its allies if China escalates economic pressure, as Tokyo seeks to navigate the fallout from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks linking Taiwan's security to its own.

China's swift retaliation — warning tourists against visiting Japan, suspending seafood imports and freezing film approvals — hints at the economic leverage it holds over Tokyo and how limited Japan's room for maneuver remains.

For now, Tokyo has stuck to its usual playbook: avoiding tit-for-tat retaliation, keeping communication channels open and hoping tensions cool over time. But the longer the standoff continues, the more Japan is likely to coordinate closely with Washington and like-minded partners.

"The Japan side is still looking for an off-ramp rather than seeking to escalate," said Kurt Tong, a former senior US diplomat in Asia who's now a managing partner at The Asia Group. "That could change if the China side keeps applying deeper pressure."

The US has signaled its support, with Ambassador George Glass saying Washington firmly stands with Tokyo, echoing President Donald Trump's earlier offer to give Takaichi "anything." Glass called Beijing's reaction "outrageous" and said the US-Japan alliance remains focused on ensuring peace in the region.

One potential area of cooperation is technology. Japan could consider tightening export controls on semiconductor manufacturing equipment — a key sector that made up more than 10% of Japan's exports to China last year. But any such move would have to carefully weigh the potential hit to Japan's own economy.

Japan holds leverage in chipmaking technology, where its firms supply critical tools and materials for both advanced and mature semiconductors. But Tokyo has less control over companies than Beijing, and many with heavy exposure to China may hesitate to comply without clear government enforcement, said Masahiro Wakasugi, senior technology analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.

"The picture is very different if Japan can get US help," Wakasugi said. "Together they control some of the world's key chipmaking supplies. Together they can cause more serious problems for China's chip sector."

Beijing's measures follow Takaichi's suggestion this month that Tokyo could intervene militarily in any Chinese attack on Taiwan. China has repeatedly demanded she retract her comments, but with her approval ratings high, Takaichi has little reason to back down. If Beijing follows through on its threats of more punishment, the risk of escalation grows with no clear exit in sight.

When asked on Friday if she would retract the comment that angered Beijing, Takaichi reiterated Tokyo's position, saying the government would assess any threat to Japan's existence based on all available information and the specific circumstances at the time.

The risk in Japan's strategy of trying to ride out the tension is that China keeps ratcheting it up. That could eventually include curbs on rare earth exports — a tactic Beijing first used during a territorial dispute with Tokyo more than a decade ago. Since then, China has shown it can inflict similar pain on the US and Europe, given the world's growing reliance on Chinese supplies.

After the 2010 embargo, Japan moved to diversify its sources of rare earths. It provided financial backing to Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. — now the single biggest source of mined supply outside China — looked for alternative resources including recycling, and built up stockpiles to cushion against supply shocks.

"If Beijing tightens supplies, then Tokyo would likely appeal to Washington for its assistance or work to procure critical mineral supplies through third countries," said Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group and former US diplomat in China and Japan.

Even so, Japan remains exposed. Its dependence on Chinese rare earths has climbed back to around 70% this decade, up from about 60% earlier, as demand for electric vehicles and renewable energy surges, according to Tadanori Sasaki, senior research director at the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan.

Rare earth magnets are central to everything from electric motors to consumer electronics. A looming shortage after China imposed export controls earlier this year was one factor that pushed Trump toward a rapprochement with President Xi Jinping.

Neither Japanese officials nor companies disclose details about their rare earth stockpiles, but analysts say Beijing is unlikely to go as far as a full ban this time. With a recent diplomatic thaw and a fragile trade truce with the US in place, China would want to avoid triggering instability.

Still, Beijing has room to make life difficult. "China is unlikely to ban rare earth shipments to Japan outright, but it might use administrative measures such as licensing delays or tighter export paperwork," said Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund.

If the dispute drags on, Japan is likely to seek broader diplomatic support. Eurasia's Chan said Tokyo would turn to its Group of Seven partners for help in criticizing China's actions or pushing for a diplomatic solution. At the same time, Japan would probably step up direct outreach to Beijing, he said, adding that Tokyo remains deeply reluctant to retaliate against Chinese measures.

US State Department deputy spokesperson Tommy Pigott said Thursday that Washington's commitment to Japan's defense — including the Japan-administered Senkaku Islands, which China also claims — remains unwavering.

Still, questions persist over the reliability of the US as a security partner under the Trump administration. "If I was the leader of Japan or South Korea or wherever else, I'd be feeling a lot less confident about American security guarantees," said Joe Mazur, a senior analyst at consultancy Trivium China.

The dispute highlights Japan's need to further reduce its reliance on China, which increasingly wields economic pressure over diplomatic disputes, extending beyond rare earths to sectors like tourism, said Hei Seki, a Japan Innovation Party lawmaker and member of Takaichi's ruling coalition.

Chinese tourists remain a vital part of Japan's economy. As of October, about 8.2 million travelers had arrived from China this year, the biggest group among foreign tourists.

Seki, who was born and raised in China before becoming a Japanese citizen in 2007 and is now barred from entering the country, said Beijing often blurs the line between politics and commerce to pressure Japan. Doing business with China, he added, has become more unpredictable.

"When it comes to what to do about it, the conclusion is that we have no choice but to accept a certain degree of economic decoupling," he added.

Source: Bloomberg Europe