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Bitcoin has once again left traders guessing. After crashing to $109K with nearly $1 billion in liquidations, the market is split on what comes next. Will September bring another weak month, a surprise rally, or even a deeper crash?

Popular analyst Altcoin Sherpa has outlined three possible paths for Bitcoin—and each one tells a very different story.

Let’s have a look at it!

Scenario 1: September Chop and a Slow Grind Higher

According to Sherpa, the first and most likely scenario is that September could turn into a “chop fest.” Historically, September has been one of the weakest months for Bitcoin, with prices closing red in 8 out of the past 12 times, showing an average drop of 3.6%.

This trend suggests Bitcoin may spend the coming weeks hovering near the $100,000 level if the usual September decline plays out. However, there’s also a chance of a bullish surprise. A Fed rate cut in September could flip the trend and push Bitcoin above $115K.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) holds around $700 million in Bitcoin, which has been largely accumulated from mining operations, according to the blockchain analytics platform Arkham Intelligence.

Arkham said in an X post on Monday that it has become one of the first to publicly identify the UAE government’s wallets, finding that their wallet addresses hold about 6,300 Bitcoin (BTC).

The Bitcoin was mined through Citadel Mining, which is majority owned by the UAE government-owned conglomerate, the International Holding Company (IHC).

“Unlike the US and UK, the UAE’s holdings do not come from police asset seizures but from mining operations with Citadel Mining,” Arkham said.

On August 25, Arkham Intelligence reported that the UAE government holds around 6,300 Bitcoin, valued between $700 million and $740 million. What makes this stash unique is that it wasn’t bought on the open market.

Instead, it was mined directly through Citadel Mining, a publicly listed company majority-owned by Abu Dhabi’s powerful Royal Group. By accumulating Bitcoin through mining rather than market purchases, the UAE has secured reserves while strengthening its role in the global crypto mining landscape.

UAE is now the Fourth-Largest Bitcoin Holder

This move puts the UAE in the spotlight as the fourth-largest holder of Bitcoin, a notable milestone for a nation positioning itself as a global hub for digital assets. The Gulf country has been ramping up efforts to attract crypto companies with favorable regulations, abundant energy resources for mining, and institutional capital eager to diversify into blockchain technology.

Alongside its mined Bitcoin reserves, Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund has invested $534 million in a Bitcoin ETF, signaling that the UAE’s embrace of cryptocurrency goes beyond mining into mainstream financial instruments. Together, these steps reflect a two-pronged strategy: securing mined reserves while also gaining exposure through regulated investment products.

A New Global Crypto Player

The UAE’s Bitcoin holdings and growing presence in digital assets could reshape the competitive landscape, especially as countries like the U.S. and El Salvador pursue their own Bitcoin strategies. By leveraging financial muscle and energy capacity, the Emirates is carving out a place as a serious global player in the digital asset economy.

For now, Arkham’s disclosure provides the first public confirmation of these sovereign Bitcoin reserves, putting the UAE in the same league as some of the world’s most proactive state adopters. It’s yet another signal that Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset; it’s becoming a strategic reserve for nations looking to future-proof their economies.

FAQs

The UAE holds approximately 6,333 BTC, valued at around $740 million, making it the fourth-largest state Bitcoin holder globally.

These Bitcoins were mined directly using Citadel Mining, a publicly listed company majority-owned by Abu Dhabi’s Royal Group via the IHC investment arm, not bought on the open market.

Unlike many nations that purchase Bitcoin, the UAE built its reserve through state-backed mining operations. This enhances its strategic involvement in global crypto infrastructure rather than just financial exposure.

Yes. Dubai now allows real estate and flight bookings with cryptocurrencies. Developers such as Emaar, DAMAC, and Nakheel, along with Emirates Airline, are accepting crypto payments, though regulatory measures are being refined to address volatility and risk.

For individual investors, the UAE currently has no income or capital gains tax on crypto. However, goods/services purchased with crypto remain subject to the standard 5% VAT.

Around $205 billion has exited crypto markets over the past 24 hours, sending total market capitalization plummeting back to $3.84 trillion.

It is the lowest level total cap has been since August 6, but it still remains within a six-week sideways channel despite themassive sell-off.

CoinGlass reported that around 205,000 traders were liquidated over the past day, with total liquidations coming in over $930 million as leveraged long Bitcoin positions got flushed. Other analysts were suggesting that exchanges were dumping crypto assets in order to liquidate the long positions.

Today’s painful, but not out of the ordinary, market slump has resulted in a 9% correction for overall crypto markets since their peak on August 14.

Yesterday saw one of the largest #Bitcoin long liquidation events since Dec 2024, with over $150M in longs wiped out as price moved lower. pic.twitter.com/okCNBMWl0j

— glassnode (@glassnode) August 25, 2025

Bitcoin Dragging Markets Down

The big dump has been caused by Bitcoin, which crashed to a seven-week low of under $109,000 in early Asian trading on Tuesday morning on most exchanges.

This was caused by a Bitcoin whale selling an entire batch of 24,000 BTC worth over $2.7 billion, causing the asset to plummet $4,000 a few hours that followed.

According to Glassnode, Bitcoin has dropped below the average cost basis ($110,800) of one to three-month-old investors who accumulated during the May to July rally. “Historically, failure to hold above this level has often led to multi-month market weakness and potential deeper corrections,” it cautioned.

The total BTC correction now stands at 12%, which is still much shallower than the pullbacks in September 2017 and 2021, during the bull market years when the asset retreated by 36% and 24%, respectively.

A retreat between these two levels this September could see Bitcoin prices back at $87,000 before the bull market resumes.Altcoins Bleed Out

As usual, the altcoins are suffering much more with major losses for Solana dumping over 11% to $186, Dogecoin dropping 10% in a fall to $0.21, Cardano sliding 9% to $0.83, and Chainlink tanking 11% to $23.30.

Other altcoins in pain include Hyperliquid, Sui, Avalanche, and Litecoin. Ethereum haslost 7%on the day, but it remains within its sideways channel and had already started to recover at the time of writing, trading above $4,400 again. However, ETH has lost over 11% since its all-time high just two days ago.

“It never “feels good” when you buy the dip. The dip comes when sentiment drops. Writing the number down can be a good form of discipline,” advised Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan.

When the crypto market rips, everyone says: “I’ll buy bitcoin if it just pulls back to [insert number here].”

Then, when the dip happens, they don’t act because the market doesn’t “feel” good at that point.

One solution: Write the price at which you want to buy on a sticky note…

— Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) August 25, 2025

David Bailey, Bitcoin Magazine CEO and advisor to US President Donald Trump, predicted that Bitcoin will not experience any further bear markets. He believes the price will continue to rise significantly as institutional adoption grows. 

Contrary to Bailey’s views, several industry experts expect continued or upcoming bear markets in Bitcoin. 

In a recent post on X, Bailey’s statement suggested that increased institutional involvement will increase Bitcoin’s price and prevent future extended bear markets. He also said that institutions like sovereign nations, banks, and insurance companies will eventually hold Bitcoin, and their adoption process has already begun. 

Bear Market to End in Bitcoin 

Another expert who believes in an end to the bear market in BTC is Ryan McMillin, co-founder and chief investment officer of Merkle Tree Capital. He told Cointelegraph that there is a possibility there will be no bear market, “similar to gold post the early 2000s ETF launch as the asset was financialized and up only for eight years.”

He also said that without a bull market, there can’t be a bear market, as the bull market precedes any bear market. McMillin said, “If this structure persists, then there is no bear market; there will be regular corrections, which are great buying opportunities.”

Experts Who Foresee Bearish Market in BTC

While Bailey expects the era of Bitcoin’s bear markets to end, several experts, including John Glover, CIO at Ledn, forecast a bear market. In early August, Glover, who is known for his application of Elliott Wave Theory, predicted BTC to reach $140,000 by the end of 2025 but expected a bear market in 2026 following that rally. 

Kadan Stadelmann, CTO of Komodo Platform, said that it’s time to buy BTC over the next six months before it returns to a bear market. He said, “If we continue to follow history, I expect the peak around Q1 of 2026 and a bear market to follow,” as quoted in the report.

Some other experts also implied that bearish risks remain in Bitcoin. 

FAQs

2025 is expected to see high volatility but potentially less than earlier cycles due to institutional involvement, though sharp price swings will remain common.

Not necessarily. While institutions may reduce volatility, experts note that bull markets are always followed by corrections, meaning regular bear phases are still possible.

Key risks include a major macroeconomic crisis, stringent new government regulations, or a large-scale security failure undermining market confidence.

Regulatory announcements have historically caused significant volatility, often triggering sharp corrections or extended bear markets by impacting investor sentiment and access.

A crypto whale who has $3.1 million in funds frozen on crypto exchange MEXC claims he was told to fly to Malaysia to prove his identity in person to have his funds released quickly.

According to screenshots shared by the pseudonymous crypto trader “White Whale” MEXC’s global head of customer service offered him an “exclusive invitation” to Malaysia to have an “in-depth communication with the leadership team” about the frozen assets.