Investing.com -- Fintech, payments, and crypto have entered 2026 with “major political, macro, and product catalysts,” Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev told clients in a note on Friday, outlining six themes that could shape the sector this year.
The analyst highlighted potential volatility from President Trump’s proposed 10 percent APR cap and his support for the Credit Card Competition Act, but noted that caps “may ultimately benefit networks and BNPL players” as shifts from credit to BNPL drive incremental debit volumes.
Mizuho said lower rates form the first major theme, providing “broad relief across processors, lenders, BNPL firms, and trading platforms.”
The firm believes FIS “screens best positioned” while lenders such as AFRM, SOFI, FIGR and UPST benefit from cheaper funding and stronger demand.
The second theme is crypto divergence. Mizuho says regulatory clarity is “accelerating the split between volatile Bitcoin and rapidly scaling USD-backed stablecoins,” adding that stablecoins “could increasingly dominate real-world usage.”
Prediction markets are the third theme and are “emerging as a meaningful growth engine,” with HOOD the early leader, followed by COIN and GEMI.
Fourth, consumer lending appears set for reacceleration as “renewed borrowing demand” and stabilized charge-offs lift fintech lenders.
Fifth, Mizuho sees value in legacy processors, calling GPN an example of an “unloved” name with strong fundamentals.
The sixth theme highlights a potential “IT services renaissance,” with rising tech spending and rating agencies poised to benefit from improving issuance trends.
