Five key online travel themes for 2026

Investing.com -- Concerns over management changes are weighing on UK real estate investment trusts’ share price performance, particularly during periods of leadership transition and uncertainty over succession, according to analysts at Kepler Cheuvreux.

UK REITs have seen an unusually high level of senior executive turnover over the past year, with 11 departures announced, including three chief executives in early 2026. 

The brokerage said the volume of changes has prompted investors to question how far further departures may extend and whether uncertainty around leadership is contributing to weaker share price performance.

The analysts found that management changes have historically coincided with share price underperformance relative to the UK REIT sector. 

An analysis of nine CEO departures since 2010 showed that, in the year following the initial announcement of a CEO’s departure, affected REITs underperformed the sector by an average of 1%, with a median underperformance of 5%. 

Underperformance was more pronounced when the transition period was longer, particularly when there was a delay in appointing a successor. 

For six REITs where the transition period exceeded three months, average underperformance reached 11%, with a median of 15%.

The brokerage said the market reaction appears to be driven less by the eventual performance of incoming executives and more by the uncertainty created during transition periods. 

While new CEOs delivered an average 4% outperformance in their first year in office, that figure was skewed by a small number of cases. 

In contrast, the period between the announcement of a departure and the appointment of a successor was more consistently associated with weaker relative share price performance.

Investor sensitivity to management change has been heightened by the age and tenure profile of current executives. Three UK REIT CEOs covered in the report are close to 65, and six have been in their roles for more than 12 years. 

The average tenure across the group is 11 years. Kepler Cheuvreux noted that very few UK REITs have historically had CEOs over 65, making age a focal point for speculation around retirement and succession.

Perceptions of weak operational performance have added to those concerns. During 2025, 23 of 26 results announcements by 13 UK REITs were followed by share price underperformance versus the sector over the subsequent two trading days. 

The brokerage said these post-results moves have been interpreted by many investors as a signal of management effectiveness, even though the researchers said they did not believe the sector was performing poorly overall.

Limited visibility over succession planning has also contributed to market unease. For eight of the 10 UK REITs covered, the only executive directors on the board are the CEO and CFO. 

Kepler Cheuvreux said board downsizing, often linked to cost pressures, has reduced investor familiarity with potential internal successors. 

While CFOs are on average 11 years younger than CEOs and are often seen as natural replacements, the report said a CFO promotion can create further uncertainty by leaving another senior role vacant.

The brokerage found that all five replacements announced for recent senior departures were external hires, which the report said can increase unpredictability and lengthen transition periods. 

External appointments were associated with greater share price volatility, particularly when confirmation of the successor was delayed.

Despite these patterns, the report said the impact of management change is not uniform across the sector. 

Kepler Cheuvreux said it sees limited near-term share price risk from management changes at its Buy-rated UK REITs, but acknowledged that concerns are likely to persist for companies with long-serving or older CEOs and weaker succession visibility.

Investing.com - A recent powerful winter storm left much of the central and eastern U.S. covered in snow and ice, and residents in freezing conditions.

The storm also hit air traffic, causing a string of flight delays or cancellations. As of Thursday, more than 22,000 flight had been cancelled across mainline and regional networks, according to analysts at BofA Securities.

How the wider airline industry grapples with the fallout remains to be seen, although American Airlines reported earlier this week that the storm was the most disruptive weather event in it history, cancelling over 11,000 of the carrier’s flights.

American estimated that the storm would cost it around $0.20 in earnings per share, or roughly $190 million in pre-tax income. The company, which has a heavy presence at airports in several markets that were in the storm’s path, is only one to have yet attempt to quantify the impact of the storm.

Delta Air Lines and United Airlines should see the next largest pre-tax hit on earnings, due to the size of their respective flight networks, the BofA analysts said.

They estimated, based on the number of cancellations, that Delta faces roughly $67 million dent to income and United around $53 million. Earnings at peers Southwest Airlines and JetBlue will be hit by $39 million and $20 million, respectively, they projected.

Other U.S. carriers Alaska Air, Frontier Airlines, and Allegiant, which have a lower presence in the storm-hit U.S. Northeast, are anticipated to be less affected, the analysts said.

"All these impacts seem very manageable on a full year basis but could influence first-quarter results," the analysts wrote, adding the wider stock market tends to look past short-term adverse weather events.

Investing.com -- Bank of America strategists say Japan’s equity market is entering a pivotal phase as investors await the outcome of the Lower House election, with a clear upside scenario if the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secures an outright majority.

The Wall Street firm outlines three post-election paths, led by a bullish case in which the market extends its rally through mid-year, driven primarily by core large-cap stocks.

If the ruling coalition gains seats but the LDP falls short of a majority, BofA expects little change to the broader positive backdrop, while a failure to win a majority could spark market turmoil in the near term, with investors likely rotating toward defensive and high-dividend stocks before the market stabilizes.

In its base bullish scenario, BofA strategist Masashi Akutsu says he expects “a concentration of market positives in the first half of the year,” pointing to the potential for rising real wages, upward earnings guidance revisions, stronger share buybacks, and revisions to Japan’s Corporate Governance Code aimed at reexamining cash allocation and strengthening accountability.

Corporate profits have already resumed growth in the first half of the fiscal year, while companies’ full-year guidance remains conservative. Akutsu notes that TOPIX constituents have lifted their earnings per share (EPS) guidance for the financial year 2026 (FY26) to 6.7%, even as net profit forecasts still assume a 2.9% decline based on an average exchange rate of 145.3 yen per dollar.

The strategist also highlights that share buybacks surged through last year’s results season before slowing on tariff concerns, with execution of announced programs running behind normal pace — a backdrop it sees as supportive if earnings outlooks improve.

If the LDP wins outright, Akutsu believes a protracted rally could follow. Under such an outcome, “a bullish scenario is likely with the Nikkei 225 rising as far as 60,000,” he wrote, as rising return on equity (ROE) supports higher valuation levels.

ROE has already climbed to 9.8%, above the top of its previous range, and BofA argues continued improvement could encourage greater participation from European and U.S. investors who have only gradually begun increasing exposure to Japanese equities.

Based on higher ROE and a higher P/E multiple, Akutsu forecasts TOPIX approaching 4,000 and the Nikkei just under 59,000 over the next 12 months.

BofA also plays down fears around higher interest rates, saying Japan has entered a “world with interest rates” alongside inflation. Akutsu characterizes the recent post-dissolution surge in yields as panic selling in Japanese government bonds and expects the rise to pause as the ruling coalition moves to pass an initial FY2026 budget and fiscal catalysts fade, with policy attention shifting toward growth strategies after the election.

On stock selection, the strategist has a clear preference for companies with pricing power in an inflationary environment.

“We like external demand sectors with strong themes such as AI and physical AI, defense, shipbuilding, and energy,” Akutsu said in the note. He also points to domestic demand sectors — including finance, construction, real estate, and railways — as potential beneficiaries if easing cost-push inflation allows real wage growth to turn positive.

Geopolitical tensions further reinforce these preferences, with Akutsu highlighting ongoing catalysts for the defense industry, rising investment in energy infrastructure tied to AI demand, and accelerating interest in factory automation and robotics as labor shortages and reshoring efforts intensify.

He also flags a broad-based rise in material prices, including copper and aluminium, arguing the move reflects structural factors such as underinvestment in capacity, tariff distortions, higher power costs linked to data-center expansion, labor disruptions, and weather-related supply issues — rather than a temporary spike.

Overall, BofA sees the Lower House election as a potential inflection point that could concentrate multiple positive drivers for Japanese equities in the first half of the year, particularly if an outright LDP victory strengthens expectations for growth-oriented policy and improving corporate returns.

Investing.com -- U.S. banks continue to dominate global capital markets, and the gap with their European peers shows little sign of closing, despite recent progress by some lenders on the continent.

Over the past decade, major U.S. investment banks have generated returns on equity of roughly 10%, compared with about 7% for large European peers. The difference has been driven largely by stronger investment banking and trading revenues in the United States, where deeper domestic capital markets, scale advantages and sustained technology investment have reinforced market leadership.

Institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have consolidated their positions across advisory, equity and debt capital markets, and sales and trading.

According to Dealogic data, U.S. banks have occupied the top five global investment banking revenue slots for much of the past decade, underscoring how difficult it has been for non-U.S. firms to compete at scale.

European banks entered that period from a weaker starting point. Many spent years restructuring, de-risking and retrenching from capital-intensive or volatile businesses following the global financial crisis and the euro zone debt turmoil.

Deutsche Bank exited global equities trading in 2019, while HSBC Holdings said in 2025 it would wind down parts of its mergers and acquisitions and equity capital markets operations in Europe and North America.

That retrenchment allowed U.S. banks to expand market share, particularly in global investment banking and equities trading. U.S. institutions now account for more than three-quarters of global equities and fixed-income trading revenues, helped by heavy investment in technology that has sharply reduced costs per trade even as volumes have surged.

European banks have, however, begun to regain ground in selected areas. Since 2019, capital markets revenues at European lenders have grown at similar rates to their U.S. peers, albeit from a much smaller base.

Improved capital positions, stronger earnings and a “higher for longer” interest-rate environment have enabled more focused investment, particularly in regional investment banking franchises across EMEA and parts of Asia.

Even so, consolidation is unlikely to be a silver bullet. While the European Central Bank has encouraged bank mergers, national barriers and limited cross-border synergies make it hard to create a European champion with the scale to rival U.S. giants in global capital markets.

The result is a narrowing of gaps in pockets, not a convergence. European banks may strengthen their positions at home, but U.S. dominance in global capital markets looks set to persist into 2026 and beyond.

Investing.com -- The U.S. dollar is likely to remain the backbone of the global financial system for longer than de-dollarization narratives suggest, even as its appeal as a reserve currency gradually weakens, according to BCA Research.

BCA said the dollar’s dominance remains entrenched across global financial markets, payments and trade, underpinned by strong network effects that make diversification away from the U.S.-centric system slow and difficult.

While countries can adjust reserve allocations unilaterally, shifting transaction currencies in trade, banking and capital markets requires coordination among many users, which limits the pace of change .

The firm introduced a composite “Dollar Dominance Indicator” tracking the greenback’s role across five areas: official FX reserves, FX trading volumes, foreign-currency debt issuance, international banking claims and liabilities, and global payments and trade finance.

Across these measures, the dollar still accounts for more than half of global usage, far exceeding the U.S. share of global GDP or trade .

BCA noted that the erosion is most visible in official reserves. The dollar’s share of global FX reserves has declined since 2000, while central banks, particularly in emerging markets, have increased allocations to gold and a wider set of non-traditional currencies.

The freezing of Russian central bank assets in 2022 accelerated this shift by highlighting the political risks attached to reserve assets that can be confiscated .

The dollar’s role in market-based activity remains stable. Its share of global FX trading has risen to about 89%, it continues to dominate foreign-currency debt issuance, and it remains the leading currency in international banking balance sheets.

In global payments, the dollar accounts for roughly half of transactions and close to 80% of trade finance, reflecting its central role as the vehicle currency in global commerce .

The result is a prolonged transition rather than a regime shift. Dollar usage in transactions is likely to stay high even as official demand for dollar reserves weakens, creating a structural headwind for the exchange rate over time but stopping short of a rapid loss of global primacy .

Investing.com -- OpenAI’s move into advertising is set to reshape the digital ad ecosystem, with Needham & Company warning that its entry represents “a fundamental re-calibration of the intent-based economy that has historically been dominated by Google and META.” 

In a note on Monday, analyst Laura Martin cited OpenAI’s Jan. 16 announcement that ads will appear in its free and mid-tier Go plans, sold on a CPM basis rather than performance-based pricing.

Needham believes OpenAI’s scale gives the initiative immediate significance. With “800 million weekly active users,” analysts estimate the company “could generate up to $20B of ad revs/year within the next 5 years,” depending on execution. 

The firm argued that OpenAI needs advertising to offset “high costs of AI compute, infrastructure, and growth,” while a second major revenue stream could lift its valuation multiple.

If OpenAI reaches that revenue level, Needham stated that “at least some of it must come from the Walled Gardens,” including Google, Meta and Amazon, given that the U.S. open internet ad market is roughly $50 billion. 

The brokerage will be hosting a call with Adthena CEO Phillip Thune, who has more than 25 years in online search and whose company has detected significant shifts in Google’s AI Overviews. 

Needham highlighted Thune’s data showing that AI-generated answers “can trigger a 20–40% drop in click-through rates to websites,” underscoring the disruptive potential.

The key investor questions, Needham said, now centre on whether advertisers view ChatGPT’s CPM-based placements as more attractive than Google’s formats, and which platforms stand to lose the most share as AI-driven interfaces redefine user intent and ad value.