Investing.com -- Fitch Ratings has upgraded Hillman Solutions Corp. (NASDAQ:HLMN) and The Hillman Group’s Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings to ’BB’ from ’BB-’ with a Stable outlook.
The upgrade reflects the company’s gross debt reduction and Fitch’s expectation that Hillman will maintain EBITDA leverage between 2.5x and 3.0x while executing its growth strategy. Fitch also upgraded the senior secured term loan to ’BB+’ with a Recovery Rating of ’RR2’ from ’BB’/’RR3’ as term loan repayment improves recovery prospects.
Fitch expects Hillman to focus on smaller bolt-on acquisitions with cash flow from operations minus capital expenditures to debt ratio in the high-single digits to mid-teens range, supporting deleveraging capacity. The company has managed tariff-linked margin impacts by diversifying supply chains and passing tariff-related costs to customers.
Hillman holds a strong market position in its core products of fasteners, hardware and personal protection productions, which account for 74% of its revenues. The company manages and distributes 111,000 SKUs directly to stores through its distribution network and has 1,200 sales and service personnel on-site to help customers.
The company also maintains a strong position in key duplication, Auto & RFID Fob duplication and engraving offerings with 31,500 kiosks deployed at retail partners, including more than 3,000 MinuteKey 3.5 kiosks. This segment accounts for 16% of 2024 sales but almost 31% of overall EBITDA due to high margins and technology content.
Fitch expects EBITDA leverage to reach 2.6x at year-end 2025 from 2.9x at year-end 2024 through EBITDA expansion. The rating agency forecasts free cash flow between $60 million-$100 million per year over the forecast period, with FCF margins sustained in the mid-single-digits range.
The company operates throughout North America, with the U.S. accounting for 89% of 2024 sales. Hillman has 23 distribution centers across the continent, serving 29,000 retail locations.
Customer concentration remains a risk factor, with Home Depot and Lowes accounting for 22% and 19% of 2024 revenues, respectively. This risk is mitigated by the company’s track record of maintaining long-standing relationships with core hardware retailers.
Fitch projects total revenue to increase by 6% to $1.57 billion in 2025 and grow organically in the low-single digits in 2026 and 2027, with EBITDA margins sustained around 17% over the forecast period.
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