FintechZoom Apple Stock: Comprehensive Analysis, Insights, and Investment Strategies

Economic

Summary:

Explore in-depth analysis and insights on Apple stock (AAPL) with FintechZoom and FastBull. Learn about market trends, financial performance, and investment strategies to make informed decisions and stay ahead in the financial markets.

Introduction

The world of financial technology (fintech) has transformed how individuals and institutions interact with financial markets. One of the platforms leading this revolution is FintechZoom, a prominent source of financial news, analysis, and insights. Among the myriad of topics covered by FintechZoom, Apple Inc. (AAPL) stock is a frequent subject of discussion due to its significant influence on global markets. This article delves into the intricate relationship between FintechZoom and Apple stock, providing an in-depth analysis of how FintechZoom's insights impact investors and traders.

The Rise of FintechZoom

What is FintechZoom?

FintechZoom is a leading online platform that specializes in delivering timely and relevant financial news, market analysis, and investment strategies. The platform covers a wide range of topics, including stock market updates, cryptocurrency trends, fintech innovations, and economic forecasts. With a team of expert analysts and contributors, FintechZoom has become a go-to source for both novice and experienced investors seeking to navigate the complexities of financial markets.

The Role of FintechZoom in Financial Markets

FintechZoom plays a crucial role in financial markets by providing real-time information and in-depth analysis. The platform's comprehensive coverage of market events, earnings reports, and macroeconomic trends helps investors make informed decisions. Additionally, FintechZoom offers various tools and resources, such as stock screeners, financial calculators, and portfolio trackers, to assist users in managing their investments effectively.

Apple Inc. (AAPL): A Market Leader

Overview of Apple Inc.

Apple Inc., founded in 1976 by Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, and Ronald Wayne, is a multinational technology company renowned for its innovative products and services. Headquartered in Cupertino, California, Apple designs, manufactures, and markets a wide range of consumer electronics, including the iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, and Apple TV. The company also offers software, services, and digital content through platforms like the App Store, Apple Music, and iCloud.

Apple Stock Performance

Apple's stock (AAPL) is one of the most widely traded and closely watched securities in the world. The company's strong brand, loyal customer base, and consistent innovation have driven significant growth in its stock price over the years. AAPL is a component of major stock indices, such as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100, and is considered a bellwether for the technology sector.

FintechZoom's Coverage of Apple Stock

Timely News and Analysis

One of FintechZoom's strengths is its ability to provide timely news and analysis on Apple stock. The platform's team of financial journalists and analysts closely monitor Apple's corporate developments, product launches, earnings reports, and market trends. This real-time coverage ensures that investors have access to the latest information that could impact AAPL's stock price.

Earnings Reports and Financial Performance

Earnings reports are a critical factor influencing Apple stock. FintechZoom provides detailed coverage of Apple's quarterly earnings announcements, offering insights into the company's revenue, profit margins, and future outlook. These reports are accompanied by expert analysis, helping investors interpret the data and assess its potential impact on AAPL's stock performance.

Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior

FintechZoom also explores market sentiment and investor behavior related to Apple stock. The platform analyzes trends in institutional and retail investor activity, providing insights into buying and selling pressures. This information is valuable for understanding how market participants perceive Apple's prospects and can influence trading strategies.

Key Factors Influencing Apple Stock

Innovation and Product Development

Apple's ability to innovate and develop new products is a significant driver of its stock performance. FintechZoom closely tracks product announcements, such as new iPhone models, advancements in wearable technology, and updates to Apple's software ecosystem. Innovations that capture consumer interest and drive sales growth tend to have a positive impact on AAPL's stock price.

Market Competition

The competitive landscape is another crucial factor affecting Apple stock. FintechZoom analyzes how Apple's competitors, such as Samsung, Google, and Microsoft, impact the company's market share and profitability. Competitive pressures can influence investor sentiment and, consequently, AAPL's stock price.

Macroeconomic Trends

Macroeconomic trends, including interest rates, inflation, and global economic conditions, play a significant role in Apple's stock performance. FintechZoom provides insights into how these broader economic factors influence consumer spending, supply chain dynamics, and overall market conditions, which in turn affect AAPL's stock price.

Investment Strategies and Insights

Long-Term vs. Short-Term Investing

FintechZoom caters to both long-term and short-term investors by offering tailored strategies for different investment horizons. For long-term investors, the platform emphasizes Apple's strong fundamentals, including its robust cash flow, dividend payments, and growth potential. Short-term traders, on the other hand, benefit from FintechZoom's technical analysis and market sentiment indicators, which help identify trading opportunities based on price movements and trends.

Diversification and Risk Management

Diversification and risk management are essential components of any investment strategy. FintechZoom provides guidance on how to diversify a portfolio that includes Apple stock, balancing exposure to other sectors and asset classes. The platform also offers risk management tips, such as setting stop-loss orders and monitoring market volatility, to protect investments from adverse market movements.

FastBull: Another Key Player

Introduction to FastBull

FastBull is another influential financial platform that provides comprehensive market analysis, trading insights, and financial news. Known for its user-friendly interface and robust analytical tools, FastBull caters to a broad audience, including forex traders, stock market investors, and those interested in economic trends.

FastBull's Contribution to Apple Stock Analysis

FastBull offers detailed analysis and insights into Apple stock, similar to FintechZoom. The platform provides real-time updates on market developments, expert commentary on earnings reports, and in-depth technical analysis. FastBull's unique perspective and advanced tools complement FintechZoom's offerings, giving investors a broader understanding of Apple's stock performance.

Synergy Between FintechZoom and FastBull

Together, FintechZoom and FastBull provide a comprehensive view of Apple stock, leveraging their combined expertise to offer nuanced analysis and actionable insights. Investors can benefit from using both platforms to cross-reference information, validate investment strategies, and make well-informed decisions.

Conclusion

FintechZoom and FastBull's comprehensive coverage of Apple stock make them invaluable resources for investors seeking to navigate the complexities of financial markets. By providing timely news, expert analysis, and actionable insights, these platforms empower investors to make informed decisions about AAPL and other securities. As Apple continues to innovate and shape the technology landscape, FintechZoom and FastBull's role in delivering critical information and investment strategies will remain essential for investors worldwide.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Cohen

Economic

Bond

Investors tracking JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s emerging markets bond index have already positioned for India’s inclusion, with 3.6% of their assets allocated to the nation’s sovereign debt at end-May, according to Morgan Stanley.

Most of the investors are active fund managers who don’t need to add exposure as India is added to the gauge on Friday, Min Dai, head of Asia macro strategy, wrote in a note. More than half of them have already increased their India exposure, he said.

India’s index-eligible bonds have attracted $10 billion since the inclusion was announced in September. This event could likely draw $20 billion to $25 billion of global flows into local debt, according to JPMorgan. The nation will have a 1% weight in the index, which will gradually rise to 10% over a 10-month period.

“Investors could have some moderate overweight in both rates and FX in the size of 1%-2%”, if India keeps the rupee stable, maintains a hawkish monetary policy stance and the budget deficit is moderate, Dai wrote in the note dated June 21. This suggests investors still need to add 8%-9% of their assets in India over the next 10 months, he said.

Bond Bulls Lift India Bets Ahead of Index Inclusion_1

JPMorgan estimates that foreign ownership of India’s bond market will nearly double to over 4.4% of outstanding, from the current 2.5%, over the next 12 months. Additionally, investors are overweight on the rupee, with 2.9% holding driven by pre-positioning ahead of the index inclusion.

India’s debt has become a favorite among emerging markets, with investors attracted to the nation’s solid finances and a stable currency. The country’s inclusion will come at the expense of Thailand, South Africa, Poland, the Czech Republic, Brazil and Colombia, according to Morgan Stanley.

“Investors would need to either sell these markets’ bonds to fund India trades or use any new inflows to buy into India,” Dai wrote. “This could prove to be a headwind for some of the biggest GBI-EM countries in the next 10 months.”

HSBC Plc estimates that the 5-year, 7-year, 10-year and 30-year benchmark India bonds alone could closely track the returns performance of the 28 index-eligible notes, it said in a note. These maturities are likely to be the key target of foreign flows, strategist Himanshu Malik wrote in a note.

India’s addition will put Asia’s weight at 47.6% in the index, while a possible addition of the Philippines could take the region’s weighting above 50%, the note said.

JPMorgan has proposed two possible steps to rebalance the index in its latest consultation, Morgan Stanley said. One suggestion is to cap Asia at 40%, which would give more weight to Latin America. The second measure would reduce the weight of major economies, effectively lowering China’s weight from 10% to 6%, it added.

Source:Bloomberg

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Thomas

Economic

Central Bank

A consensus appears to be emerging among the external members of the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee that high interest rates are damaging to economic growth, a sign that the debate over the timing of any easing is intensifying.

Jayanth Rama Varma and Ashima Goyal voted at the June meeting for a rate cut, arguing that too restrictive policy will hurt growth, recent minutes showed. Shashanka Bhide, the third external official on the six- member committee, voted against easing, but in an emailed response to questions, he acknowledged that inflation-adjusted rates above 1.5% "is not supportive of higher growth." India's real, or inflation-adjusted, rate is currently at 1.75%.

Bhide still advocated for caution, though, saying rapid economic growth and inflation can be "sub-optimal."

The rest of the monetary policy committee is made up of RBI officials, who have stuck to their relatively hawkish stance on inflation, including Governor Shaktikanta Das. Any "hasty action" will do more harm than good, Das argued at the last MPC meeting, according to the minutes.

The split in the views show a widening gap between the external and internal members on how to balance economic growth and inflation. The committee has kept the benchmark repurchase rate unchanged at 6.5% for more than a year now, with inflation still hovering above the RBI's 4% target.

Madhavi Arora, lead economist at Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd., said it's unclear if the differences in views means any rate action will follow in coming months. She predicted the RBI likely won't ease until after the Federal Reserve does so.

"We maintain that rate cuts will be a calendar year 2025 tale but liquidity management will be the near-term story, implying that a mild stealth easing is still on the anvil," she wrote in a note.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict the RBI will lower rates in the final quarter of 2024. The next rate decision is on Aug. 8.

External MPC member Varma said as inflation moves closer to the target, monetary policy should be "only mildly restrictive, so that the growth sacrifice is modest."

Bhide refuted the notion that too-high borrowing costs have choked off growth, saying rapid expansion of more than 7% in recent years has been driven by domestic demand. To sustain that pace, "we need supportive external demand conditions" going forward, he said.

Varma argued that India needs faster growth rates than what's projected over the next two years, given its "current stage of the demographic transition."

Both MPC members will leave the committee in October, once its term ends. Here's more of what they said in emailed responses to questions:

"It is important to recognize that we now have a lower inflation rate and we need to sustain this lower inflation rate close to the target," Bhide said.
"A well distributed normal monsoon would be supportive of rural growth," Bhide said Both the members denied that the MPC is waiting for the US Federal Reserve to cut rates first. "I believe that there are honest differences of opinion here," Varma said.
"I would not like to speculate on how other members of the MPC might act in future meetings. I am happy that at this meeting, we had another voice emphasizing the growth concerns that are there today," Varma said.

Source: the Economic Times

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Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alex

Economic

A sharp rise in shipping costs could pose an additional hurdle in New Zealand's battle against inflation.

Shipping costs, as measured by the global container freight index, are now more than triple what they were at the end of 2023.

It was raised as a concern at the start of the year, when shipping costs rose because of disruption in the Red Sea.

At that point, rates peaked about two-and-a-half times the rate of the end of 2023, then fell back to 1.7 times at the end of April.

But they have now returned to 3.3 times that late-2023 rate.

"Shipping rates are still a long way below the insane levels they reached during the pandemic, with the current elevated shipping rates still only 40 percent of the peak seen in September 2021," Infometrics chief executive Brad Olsen said.

"However, having returned towards normal in 2023, higher shipping rates at present still threaten to add additional cost pressures on to imported goods at a time when worries about the persistent of higher inflationary pressures is in focus.

"Overseas-based inflationary pressures have eased quicker than domestic pricing pressures, but the strong rise in shipping rates will cost someone, and we worry that it could hit local businesses needing to import components and similar from overseas."

New Zealand was sometimes hit with a lagged effect of higher international costs, he said.

"We remain alert to higher shipping rates to hit the New Zealand economy. It also highlights the importance of global geopolitical factors and how they influence economic trends, meaning that keeping a focus on international developments is critical for Kiwi businesses."

BNZ chief economist Mike Jones said it was an unwelcome development from a cost and inflation perspective.

"However, a clear difference in the macro environment this time around is a much weaker demand backdrop. We're seeing that in firms' pricing intentions and the intense pressure on margins. That generally weak demand backdrop may well dull some of the pass-through to end prices."

Source：RNZ

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Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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FastBull Featured

Daily News

[Quick Facts]

1. EU adopts new sanctions against Russia, including LNG.

2. Fed's Daly says inflation data so far has not inspired confidence.

3. Macklem says BOC can beat inflation without unemployment spike.

4. Fed's Goolsbee expects inflation to cool further.

[News Details]

EU adopts new sanctions against Russia, including LNG

European Union countries adopted a 14th package of sanctions on Russia that aims to close some loopholes and hits Russia's gas exports for the first time, EU foreign ministers said on Monday.

The new restrictions on gas aim to reduce Russia's revenues from liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by banning trans-shipments - transferring cargoes from one ship to another - off EU ports and a clause allowing Sweden and Finland to cancel some LNG contracts.

The measures stop short of an EU ban on LNG imports, which have risen since the start of the war. The sanctions will take effect after a nine-month transition period. The package also prohibits new investments and services to complete LNG projects under construction in Russia.

Gas market experts say the measure will likely have little impact as Europe still buys Russian gas itself and trans-shipments via EU ports to Asia represent only around 10% of total Russian LNG exports.

Fed's Daly says inflation data so far has not inspired confidence

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Monday that the Fed must "be cautious" in the process of controlling inflation to avoid declaring victory (over inflation) too soon. "The bumpiness of inflation data so far this year has not inspired confidence," Daly said. "Recent readings are more encouraging, but it is hard to know if we are truly on track to sustainable price stability."

As demand slows, so does the labor market. However, the rise in unemployment so far has remained modest compared to the fall in inflation.

There's likely to be less help from supply-side factors in the remainder of 2024. Supply chains have largely recovered from their pandemic-era disruptions, and the U.S. labor force participation rate has nearly returned to prior levels.

Future labor market slowing could translate into higher unemployment, as firms need to adjust not just vacancies but actual jobs. To avoid that, the Fed must be both "vigilant and open."

Macklem says BOC can beat inflation without unemployment spike

Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Tiff Macklem said on Monday that the Canadian economy is moving towards a soft landing. The unemployment rate is expected to rise, but the BOC can beat inflation without a spike in unemployment.

Macklem said Canada's labor market is coming into better balance. Given the further and continued easing in core indicators in recent months, the central bank is more confident that inflation will move towards its 2% target.

The speech suggests that the Bank of Canada is increasingly confident that the country's labor market has loosened sufficiently to allow inflation to cool further, even though the economy is still growing and jobs are increasing. Policymakers said it is reasonable to expect further rate cuts if price pressures continue to ease.

Fed's Goolsbee expects inflation to cool further

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Monday that he expects U.S. inflation to cool further, paving the way for the Fed to begin cutting interest rates sooner.

Inflation-adjusted Fed policy rate is at its highest level in decades, putting downward pressure on the economy. There are a couple of warning signs - cooling consumer spending, increasing jobless claims, and spiking consumer delinquencies on credit-card debt.

If there are more good inflation reports like the most recent May consumer-price-index report, and more slowing economic conditions, policymakers would have to start questioning whether they should maintain the short-term interest rate target at the current high level.

[Focus of the Day]

UTC+8 20:30 Canada CPI (May)

UTC+8 19:00 Fed Governor Bowman Speaks

UTC+8 22:00 U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (Jun)

UTC+8 02:10 Fed Governor Bowman Speaks Online

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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ING

Energy

EU storage building at slower pace

EU gas storage remains comfortable at 75% full, which is well ahead of the five-year average of 65%. The pace of net injections over May and so far in June are below levels seen during the same period last year. However, with net injections averaging 250mcm/day from the start of May through until 18 June, the EU is still on track to hit full storage ahead of 1 November, assuming net injections remain around similar levels. However, injection levels are going to largely depend on LNG imports, which have been under pressure, and on how Russian pipeline flows evolve through the summer, considering the risks that continue to hang over this supply.

We continue to believe that EU storage will be close to full by the start of the next heating season if not 100% full. Fundamentally this should mean that prices at the front end of the curve come under pressure over the next quarter. However, given concerns over supply, coupled with a large amount of speculative money in the market, it may be more challenging for TTF to trade down to our third quarter forecast for this year of EUR25/MWh. Supply Risks Keep Gas Market on Tenterhooks_1

Supply Risks Keep Gas Market on Tenterhooks_1

Russian supply risks linger

Risks to Russian pipeline flows to Europe come in two forms. Firstly, there is the risk that Ukraine will not extend its transit deal with Gazprom, which expires at the end of this year. This would leave the EU looking for roughly 15bcm of alternative annual supply. If lost, this will impact the balance from 1 January 2025. There are efforts to keep gas flowing through Ukraine. However, there is still plenty of uncertainty in what form this may be. There have been suggestions that Azerbaijan could be used as a solution, where Russian gas potentially is swapped with Azeri gas. A swap would be needed, given that Azerbaijan does not have adequate export availability to meet this additional demand and continue to supply current off-takers. If this is achieved, Europe continues to receive natural gas via Ukraine and Ukraine will continue to receive transit fees.

The other key risk if realised, and more imminent, is the risk that Gazprom halts remaining flows to Europe. There is a real risk of this given recent legal developments. OMV warned last month that Gazprom could halt flows to Austria after a court case ruled that payments to Gazprom for gas deliveries could be blocked. This follows some ongoing legal disputes in European courts related to Gazprom's failure to deliver gas. Recently, European courts ruled that Gazprom had to pay damages to Uniper for failure to deliver gas. If Gazprom refuses to pay these damages, buyers in Europe still receiving Russian pipeline gas could see their payments due to Gazprom being redirected as compensation to those parties' awarded damages by the courts.

If Gazprom does not receive payment for its gas deliveries, there is a very real risk that they will halt these flows. The payment deadline for Gazprom is the 20th day of every month and given flows appear to have continued past 20 June, this suggests that Gazprom received its latest due payment. Total Russian flows to the EU in 2023 totalled around 22bcm, while in the absence of disruption, these flows are set to be even higher in 2024 – potentially as high as 28bcm. Supply Risks Keep Gas Market on Tenterhooks_2

Supply Risks Keep Gas Market on Tenterhooks_2

The EU targets Russian LNG

The EU is set to impose restrictions on Russian LNG in its latest sanction package. However, rather than banning Russian LNG imports into the bloc, the Commission is set to ban the re-export of Russian LNG from EU ports. The bulk of Russian LNG shipped via EU ports ends up in Asia. However, with the bloc making it more difficult for this trade to occur, it could be left in a situation where more Russian LNG ends up in the EU.

While there appear to be no immediate plans for the EU to ban Russian LNG, several countries are looking to impose bans on a national level. The latest is France, where the senate has recommended banning Russian LNG imports.

The EU imported just shy of 20bcm of Russian LNG in 2023 according to LSEG data, while import volumes in the first five months of 2024 stand at a little over 10bcm, up 16% year-on-year. Political pressure will likely build to address not only these larger LNG volumes, but also the larger amounts of Russian pipeline gas arriving in Europe in recent months. However, contractual obligations make it challenging for the EU to fully ban Russian LNG.

EU gas demand still in the doldrums

European gas demand remains under pressure, with gas demand in the first five months of the year down 2.4% YoY. We had been assuming in our balance for EU demand to grow a little over 3% YoY for the full year. We have revised this down to less than 2% growth, but there is clearly still downside risk to this.

A mild recovery in industrial gas demand is likely to continue given the lower price environment, coupled with reduced volatility (relative to 2022 and 2023). However, this will largely be offset by expectations that demand from the power sector will remain under pressure. Spark spreads are stuck in negative territory and the forward curve suggests they will remain negative. Strong renewables output and higher nuclear availability continue to pressure thermal power margins, weighing on demand for both natural gas and coal.

EU gas imports fall

European gas imports in May were down slightly, falling 2% month-on-month towards 23bcm – although YoY flows are down a more significant 10%. And flows have remained under pressure so far in June.

Despite summer maintenance, Norwegian gas flows to the EU in May increased over the month, while some unplanned outages in June have not led to drastically reduced flows. Russian pipeline flows also increased marginally in May. However, Russia remains a key supply risk in the months ahead as previously discussed. Both UK and Azerbaijani flows also saw small increases over the month.

Declines in flows over May were driven by North Africa and LNG. Lower LNG flows were the key driver behind the fall in total import supply. Asian spot LNG continues to trade at a healthy premium to the European market on the back of strong demand. As a result, we are seeing spot cargoes diverted towards Asia. Lower LNG flows have been key to the slower build in EU storage, and LNG send-outs in May were down more than 25% YoY. Supply Risks Keep Gas Market on Tenterhooks_3

Supply Risks Keep Gas Market on Tenterhooks_3

Speculators pile into TTF

The large number of supply disruptions that have faced the gas market in recent months – coupled with the Russian supply risk and strong Asian LNG demand – has been enough of an excuse to see speculators piling into TTF. The latest Commitment of Traders report shows that speculators hold a net long of a little over 129 TWh, having held a net short back in March. Speculators are holding their largest position in TTF since early 2022.

While we hold a relatively bearish view on TTF in the coming months, increased speculative appetite complicates this view. However, when sentiment shifts, there certainly is room for a more aggressive pullback as speculative longs head for the exit. Admittedly, the bulk of the increase in the net long has been driven by short covering in recent months; however, the gross long position is still sizeable. Supply Risks Keep Gas Market on Tenterhooks_4

Supply Risks Keep Gas Market on Tenterhooks_4

Stronger Asian LNG demand

The Asian LNG market has been strong, remaining at a healthy premium to the European market. Asian demand has performed well so far this year, with cumulative imports in the first five months of the year up 10% YoY. This increase has been driven largely by China, the return of price-sensitive buyers, and hot weather in parts of Asia increasing demand for cooling needs.

Chinese LNG imports over the first five months of the year are up 18% YoY and it is looking as though China is on course to import a record amount of LNG this year. These stronger flows have been largely driven by a continued recovery in industrial activity. However, as the spot market has moved higher, buying interest has also dried up, highlighting that buyers remain price-sensitive in the region.

Stronger demand has also been accompanied by some supply disruptions in the region. In Australia, Wheatstone LNG has faced disruptions, affecting output at the 8.9mtpa facility. However, operations have fully resumed in recent days. In May, Brunei also suffered an LNG outage.

US natural gas rallies on the back of hot weather

The US natural gas market has seen significant strength with front-month Henry Hub futures trading from around $1.60/MMBtu in late April to over $3.10/MMBtu in early June. More recently, however, the market has given back some of these gains. Hot weather has driven natural gas prices higher with increased power demand for cooling.

Speculators have also played a crucial role in the scale of the move in Henry Hub. The managed money position in Henry Hub shifted from a net short of a little more than 100k lots in early May to a net long of almost 41k lots more recently. Supply Risks Keep Gas Market on Tenterhooks_5

Supply Risks Keep Gas Market on Tenterhooks_5

Comfortable US storage but market to tighten in 2025

US natural gas storage is still very comfortable standing at 3.05tcf, 12.7% higher YoY and 22.6% above the five-year average. However, the comfortable gap with both last year and the five-year average continues to narrow with domestic production under pressure. Warmer weather would have also supported demand more recently.

The US gas rig count has declined further through May and early June, with the total count standing at just 98 rigs, down 18% year-to-date and its lowest level since October 2021. The oil rig count has also declined since late April, falling from 511 rigs to just 485, the lowest level since January 2022.

In its latest Short Term Energy Outlook, the EIA cut its forecast for domestic gas production once again. Total US dry natural gas production is estimated to fall 1.6% YoY to 102.1bcf/day in 2024.

At the same time, domestic demand is expected to edge higher this year, while stronger exports are also expected in the form of both pipeline and LNG. Stronger LNG exports will be supported by the expected startup of both Plaquemines LNG and Corpus Christi Stage 3, with a combined export capacity of 20mtpa (2.6bcf/day).

We continue to hold a constructive view on the US gas market in the medium to long term, but we believe the scale of the recent rally has likely gotten slightly ahead of fundamentals, with storage still very comfortable. Therefore, we are of the view that in the short term further upside in Henry Hub is limited, and a pullback is more likely. Our forecast for the third quarter of 2024 remains unchanged at $2.50/MMBtu.

For 2025, our average annual forecast for Henry Hub is $3.60/MMBtu. This is, however, on the back of the assumption that there are no significant delays in the start of LNG capacity scheduled for later this year and through 2025. Supply Risks Keep Gas Market on Tenterhooks_6

Supply Risks Keep Gas Market on Tenterhooks_6

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Samantha Luan

Economic

Forex

Central Bank

Will the Government Leave it to the BoJ to Address Yen Weakness?

On Tuesday, June 25, the Japanese Yen and USD/JPY trends could be the talking point for the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan.

The Japanese government previously attempted to bolster the Japanese Yen, only for the USD/JPY to retarget the 160 handle on Monday, June 24. On May 3, the USD/JPY dropped below the 152 handle before climbing to a Monday high of 159.929.

A dovish June Bank of Japan monetary policy decision impacted buyer demand for the Japanese Yen. The BoJ disappointed the markets by holding interest rates steady and failing to signal a July rate hike.

In previous speeches, the BoJ warned about the influences of a weaker Yen on import costs, consumption, and the economy.

BoJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino recently said,“Exchange-rate fluctuations affect economic activity in various ways. It also affects inflation in a broad-based and sustained way, beyond the direct impact on import prices.”

However, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda towed a more cautious line, highlighting that further rate hikes would be contingent on incoming data.

Recent private sector PMI numbers are unlikely to meet the requirements of the BoJ to hike interest rates. The BoJ needs the services sector and household consumption to fuel demand-driven inflationary pressures.

However, the Jibun Bank Services PMI unexpectedly fell from 53.8 to 49.8 in June, contracting for the first time since August 2022. Notably, output price inflation rose at the slowest pace in seven months.

With economic indicators falling short, the BoJ may need to change tack and emphasize the effects of a weak Japanese Yen, supporting the case for a rate hike to strengthen the Yen, consumer price trends, and the economy.

Can Bank of Japan Board members align on the need for monetary policy moves to address the Yen effect?

While the BoJ faces Yen weakness, US consumer confidence numbers could influence the Fed rate path.

Will the CB Consumer Confidence Index Signal a September Fed Rate Cut?

Later in the session on Tuesday, the CB Consumer Confidence Index will draw investor interest. Economists predict the CB Consumer Confidence Index will fall from 102.0 to 100.0 in June. A drop below 100, for the first time since July 2022, could raise investor bets on a September Fed rate cut.

A significant decline in consumer confidence could curb consumer spending, potentially easing demand-driven inflation pressures. A milder inflation outlook might allow the Fed to cut interest rates to stabilize prices.

Could a larger-than-expected decline in the index rekindle investor concerns about a severe economic slowdown?

A larger-than-expected drop could retrigger investor jitters about a US economic recession. Private consumption contributed 67.6% to the US economy in March 2024. A sharp decline in consumption may adversely affect the US economy.

Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board, attributed the CB Consumer Confidence Index fall below 100 in April 2024 to consumer worries about inflation. BoJ’s Yen Strategy Under Scrutiny Amid Economic Indicators_1

BoJ’s Yen Strategy Under Scrutiny Amid Economic Indicators_1

As investors consider the possible effects of consumer confidence trends on the Fed, Fed speakers also require monitoring.

FOMC members Lisa Cook and Michelle Bowman are on the calendar to speak. Views on the economic outlook, inflation, and the Fed interest rate trajectory could affect buyer demand for the US dollar.

Short-term Forecast

Near-term trends for USD/JPY will depend on commentary about Yen weakness, Japanese retail sales, and inflation data. Better-than-expected numbers from Japan could enable the BoJ to begin rate hike discussions. Yet, US consumer confidence and inflation figures could maintain interest rate differentials firmly in favor of the US dollar.

USD/JPY Price Action

Daily Chart

The USD/JPY remained well above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming the bullish price trends.

A USD/JPY move to 160 and potentially to the April 29 high of 160.209 could signal a climb to the 161 handle.

Comments from the Bank of Japan and the Japanese government about the Yen require consideration before the US session.

Conversely, a USD/JPY break below the 158 handle could give the bears a run at the 50-day EMA. A drop below the 50-day EMA would bring the $151.685 support level into view.

The 14-day RSI at 68.40 suggests a USD/JPY return to the April 29 high of 160.209 before entering overbought territory. BoJ’s Yen Strategy Under Scrutiny Amid Economic Indicators_2

BoJ’s Yen Strategy Under Scrutiny Amid Economic Indicators_2

Source:FXEMPIRE

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FintechZoom Apple Stock: Comprehensive Analysis, Insights, and Investment Strategies

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Bond Bulls Lift India Bets Ahead of Index Inclusion

Source:Bloomberg

India Central Bank Policymakers Divided Over Rate-Growth Debate

Source: the Economic Times

Spike In Shipping Costs Could Pose Inflation Challenge

Source：RNZ

June 25th Financial News

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[News Details]

[Focus of the Day]

Supply Risks Keep Gas Market on Tenterhooks

EU storage building at slower pace

Russian supply risks linger

The EU targets Russian LNG

EU gas demand still in the doldrums

EU gas imports fall

Speculators pile into TTF

Stronger Asian LNG demand

US natural gas rallies on the back of hot weather

Comfortable US storage but market to tighten in 2025

BoJ’s Yen Strategy Under Scrutiny Amid Economic Indicators

Will the Government Leave it to the BoJ to Address Yen Weakness?

Will the CB Consumer Confidence Index Signal a September Fed Rate Cut?

Short-term Forecast

USD/JPY Price Action

Daily Chart

Source:FXEMPIRE

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