FICO CEO Says Credit Bureaus Prefer Tri-Merge Lending — Market Talk

Dow Jones Newswires

Fair Isaac Corp. Chief Executive William Lansing says credit bureaus are in favor of a tri-merge system (where lenders pull credit data from all three bureaus) rather than a bi-merge system (where lenders can choose just two bureaus to pull from). Lansing acknowledges the tri-merge system gives bureaus a monopoly, but argues that pulling from two bureaus could result in less trustworthy credit data. "You're going to have gaming, you're going to have adverse selection," he says. "There's a cost to be paid for that." FICO, which provides credit scores to bureaus, benefits more from a tri-merge system because it requires more score pulls per lending application.(katherine.hamilton@wsj.com)

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Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE:FICO) Posts Better-Than-Expected Sales In Q4 CY2025

Stock Story

Fair Isaac

-2.13%

Credit scoring and analytics company FICO beat Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q4 CY2025, with sales up 16.4% year on year to $512 million. On the other hand, the company’s full-year revenue guidance of $2.35 billion at the midpoint came in 3.7% below analysts’ estimates. Its non-GAAP profit of $7.33 per share was 3.5% above analysts’ consensus estimates.

Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:

Revenue: $512 million vs analyst estimates of $502.7 million (16.4% year-on-year growth, 1.8% beat)
Adjusted EPS: $7.33 vs analyst estimates of $7.08 (3.5% beat)
Adjusted EBITDA: $282.3 million vs analyst estimates of $270 million (55.1% margin, 4.6% beat)
The company reconfirmed its revenue guidance for the full year of $2.35 billion at the midpoint
Operating Margin: 45.7%, up from 40.8% in the same quarter last year
Free Cash Flow Margin: 32.3%, down from 42.5% in the same quarter last year
Market Capitalization: $36.72 billion

Company Overview

Creator of the three-digit number that can determine whether you get a mortgage or credit card, Fair Isaac Corporation develops analytics software and the widely used FICO Score, which is the standard measure of consumer credit risk in the United States.

Revenue Growth

Reviewing a company’s long-term sales performance reveals insights into its quality. Any business can put up a good quarter or two, but many enduring ones grow for years.

With $2.06 billion in revenue over the past 12 months, Fair Isaac Corporation is a mid-sized business services company, which sometimes brings disadvantages compared to larger competitors benefiting from better economies of scale. On the bright side, it can still flex high growth rates because it’s working from a smaller revenue base.

As you can see below, Fair Isaac Corporation’s sales grew at an impressive 9.5% compounded annual growth rate over the last five years. This is a great starting point for our analysis because it shows Fair Isaac Corporation’s demand was higher than many business services companies.

Fair Isaac Corporation Quarterly Revenue

Long-term growth is the most important, but within business services, a half-decade historical view may miss new innovations or demand cycles. Fair Isaac Corporation’s annualized revenue growth of 15.3% over the last two years is above its five-year trend, suggesting its demand was strong and recently accelerated.

Fair Isaac Corporation Year-On-Year Revenue Growth

This quarter, Fair Isaac Corporation reported year-on-year revenue growth of 16.4%, and its $512 million of revenue exceeded Wall Street’s estimates by 1.8%.

Looking ahead, sell-side analysts expect revenue to grow 24.6% over the next 12 months, an improvement versus the last two years. This projection is eye-popping and implies its newer products and services will spur better top-line performance.

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Operating Margin

Fair Isaac Corporation has been a well-oiled machine over the last five years. It demonstrated elite profitability for a business services business, boasting an average operating margin of 43%.

Looking at the trend in its profitability, Fair Isaac Corporation’s operating margin rose by 7.8 percentage points over the last five years, as its sales growth gave it immense operating leverage.

Fair Isaac Corporation Trailing 12-Month Operating Margin (GAAP)

This quarter, Fair Isaac Corporation generated an operating margin profit margin of 45.7%, up 4.9 percentage points year on year. This increase was a welcome development and shows it was more efficient.

Earnings Per Share

Revenue trends explain a company’s historical growth, but the long-term change in earnings per share (EPS) points to the profitability of that growth – for example, a company could inflate its sales through excessive spending on advertising and promotions.

Fair Isaac Corporation’s EPS grew at an astounding 24% compounded annual growth rate over the last five years, higher than its 9.5% annualized revenue growth. This tells us the company became more profitable on a per-share basis as it expanded.

Fair Isaac Corporation Trailing 12-Month EPS (Non-GAAP)

We can take a deeper look into Fair Isaac Corporation’s earnings quality to better understand the drivers of its performance. As we mentioned earlier, Fair Isaac Corporation’s operating margin expanded by 7.8 percentage points over the last five years. On top of that, its share count shrank by 19.6%. These are positive signs for shareholders because improving profitability and share buybacks turbocharge EPS growth relative to revenue growth.

Fair Isaac Corporation Diluted Shares Outstanding

Like with revenue, we analyze EPS over a shorter period to see if we are missing a change in the business.

For Fair Isaac Corporation, its two-year annual EPS growth of 24.6% is similar to its five-year trend, implying strong and stable earnings power.

In Q4, Fair Isaac Corporation reported adjusted EPS of $7.33, up from $5.79 in the same quarter last year. This print beat analysts’ estimates by 3.5%. Over the next 12 months, Wall Street expects Fair Isaac Corporation’s full-year EPS of $31.45 to grow 41.5%.

Key Takeaways from Fair Isaac Corporation’s Q4 Results

It was encouraging to see Fair Isaac Corporation beat analysts’ revenue expectations this quarter. We were also glad its EPS outperformed Wall Street’s estimates. On the other hand, its full-year revenue guidance missed. Overall, this quarter could have been better. The stock traded up 1.8% to $1,553 immediately following the results.

Big picture, is Fair Isaac Corporation a buy here and now? When making that decision, it’s important to consider its valuation, business qualities, as well as what has happened in the latest quarter. We cover that in our actionable full research report which you can read here (it’s free).

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Microsoft, Tesla, Meta and more set to report earnings Wednesday

Investing.com

Berkshire Hills Bancorp

Earnings season continues as we highlight the companies expected to report earnings in the next trading day to help investors prepare for market movements. Leading the charge are tech giants Microsoft, Tesla, and Meta, along with industrial powerhouse IBM and financial services provider AT&T, all scheduled to release their quarterly results on Wednesday.

Earnings Before the Open:

• AT&T (T) - EPS est: $0.46, Revenue est: $32.87B

• ASML Holdings (ASML) - EPS est: $8.72, Revenue est: $11.08B

• Auto Data Process (ADP) - EPS est: $2.57, Revenue est: $5.34B

• Amphenol Corp (APH) - EPS est: $0.92, Revenue est: $6.15B

• Avnet Inc (AVT) - EPS est: $0.95, Revenue est: $6.02B

• Badger Meter Inc (BMI) - EPS est: $1.16, Revenue est: $231.98M

• Brinker International Inc (EAT) - EPS est: $2.57, Revenue est: $1.41B

• CPB Inc (CPF) - EPS est: $0.73, Revenue est: $75.7M

• Corning Inc (GLW) - EPS est: $0.70, Revenue est: $4.36B

• CGI Group Inc (GIB) - EPS est: $1.52, Revenue est: $2.91B

• Danaher Corp (DHR) - EPS est: $2.14, Revenue est: $6.79B

• Extreme Networks (EXTR) - EPS est: $0.24, Revenue est: $312.32M

• Wellpoint Inc (ELV) - EPS est: $3.10, Revenue est: $49.82B

• First Community Corp (FCCO) - EPS est: $0.68, Revenue est: $20.27M

• General Dynamics (GD) - EPS est: $4.11, Revenue est: $13.78B

• GE Vernova LLC (GEV) - EPS est: $2.56, Revenue est: None

• Lennox International (LII) - EPS est: $4.77, Revenue est: $1.27B

• Littelfuse (LFUS) - EPS est: $2.52, Revenue est: $583.28M

• M/i Homes Inc (MHO) - EPS est: $4.11, Revenue est: $1.16B

• Monro Muffler (MNRO) - EPS est: $0.13, Revenue est: $295.19M

• MSCI Inc (MSCI) - EPS est: $4.58, Revenue est: $820.45M

• Navient Corp (NAVI) - EPS est: $0.31, Revenue est: $159.82M

• New Oriental Education & Tech (EDU) - EPS est: $0.34, Revenue est: $1.16B

• Otis Worldwide Corp (OTIS) - EPS est: $1.04, Revenue est: $3.89B

• Prosperity Bancshares Inc (PB) - EPS est: $1.42, Revenue est: $317.9M

• Royal KPN NV (KKPNY) - EPS est: $0.07, Revenue est: $1.72B

• Scotts Miracle-Gro Comp (SMG) - EPS est: -$1.01, Revenue est: $352.28M

• Starbucks Corp (SBUX) - EPS est: $0.59, Revenue est: $9.62B

• Stifel Financial Corp (SF) - EPS est: $2.51, Revenue est: $1.5B

• SSAB ADR (SSAAY) - EPS est: $0.03, Revenue est: $2.43B

• Textron Inc (TXT) - EPS est: $1.73, Revenue est: $4.1B

• Teva Pharmaceutical Inds Ltd (TEVA) - EPS est: $0.65, Revenue est: $4.33B

• VF Corp (VFC) - EPS est: $0.45, Revenue est: $2.75B

• Volvo ADR (VLVLY) - EPS est: $0.48, Revenue est: $13.08B

Earnings After the Close:

• Annaly Capital Management Inc (NLY) - EPS est: $0.73, Revenue est: $675.82M

• Axis Capital (AXS) - EPS est: $3.12, Revenue est: $1.63B

• Berkshire Hills B (BBT) - EPS est: $0.79, Revenue est: $230.94M

• Calix Inc (CALX) - EPS est: $0.39, Revenue est: $270.13M

• C H Robinson Worldwide Inc (CHRW) - EPS est: $1.13, Revenue est: $3.98B

• Celestica Inc (CLS) - EPS est: $1.74, Revenue est: $3.46B

• Century Communities (CCS) - EPS est: $1.35, Revenue est: $1.06B

• Colony Bankcorp (CBAN) - EPS est: $0.46, Revenue est: $36.4M

• CONMED Corp (CNMD) - EPS est: $1.32, Revenue est: $366.97M

• Vistaprint N.V. (CMPR) - EPS est: $1.64, Revenue est: $993.75M

• DeVry Inc (ATGE) - EPS est: $2.19, Revenue est: $490.75M

• Deluxe Corp (DLX) - EPS est: $0.83, Revenue est: $519.7M

• Equity Lifestyle Properties Inc (ELS) - EPS est: $0.51, Revenue est: $388.05M

• Ethan Allen Interiors Inc (ETD) - EPS est: $0.38, Revenue est: $152.25M

• Fair Isaac and Comp Inc (FICO) - EPS est: $7.07, Revenue est: $500.72M

• First Financial Bancorp (FFBC) - EPS est: $0.56, Revenue est: $248.95M

• First Interstate (FIBK) - EPS est: $0.77, Revenue est: $256.89M

• GBank Financial Holdings (GBFH) - EPS est: $0.52, Revenue est: None

• Hawkins (HWKN) - EPS est: $0.74, Revenue est: $252.51M

• Hexcel Corp (HXL) - EPS est: $0.49, Revenue est: $480.16M

• Houlihan Lokey Inc (HLI) - EPS est: $1.88, Revenue est: $696.65M

• IBM (IBM) - EPS est: $4.29, Revenue est: $19.22B

• Lam Research Corp (LRCX) - EPS est: $1.16, Revenue est: $5.21B

• Landstar System (LSTR) - EPS est: $1.22, Revenue est: $1.19B

• Las Vegas Sands (LVS) - EPS est: $0.77, Revenue est: $3.33B

• LendingClub Corp (LC) - EPS est: $0.34, Revenue est: $262.64M

• Levi Strauss & Co (LEVI) - EPS est: $0.39, Revenue est: $1.71B

• Liberty Oilfield Services Inc (LBRT) - EPS est: -$0.20, Revenue est: $880.54M

• Meta (META) - EPS est: $8.19, Revenue est: $58.35B

• Microsoft Corp (MSFT) - EPS est: $3.93, Revenue est: $80.23B

• Meritage Homes Corp (MTH) - EPS est: $1.53, Revenue est: $1.49B

• Murphy Oil Corp (MUR) - EPS est: -$0.02, Revenue est: $641.15M

• National Fuel Gas Comp (NFG) - EPS est: $1.99, Revenue est: $650.7M

• Plexus Corp (PLXS) - EPS est: $1.75, Revenue est: $1.07B

• Raymond James Financial Inc (RJF) - EPS est: $2.83, Revenue est: $3.81B

• SEI Investments (SEIC) - EPS est: $1.36, Revenue est: $596.9M

• Sl Green Realty (SLG) - EPS est: -$0.55, Revenue est: $150.04M

• ServiceNow Inc (NOW) - EPS est: $0.89, Revenue est: $3.53B

• Tesla Motors (TSLA) - EPS est: $0.45, Revenue est: $24.78B

• Tetra Tech (TTEK) - EPS est: $0.31, Revenue est: $975.57M

• United Rentals (URI) - EPS est: $11.78, Revenue est: $4.24B

• Univest Corp (UVSP) - EPS est: $0.77, Revenue est: $82.54M

• Jds Uniphase Corp (VIAV) - EPS est: $0.19, Revenue est: $365.25M

• Washington Trust (WASH) - EPS est: $0.75, Revenue est: $56.49M

• Waste Management (WM) - EPS est: $1.95, Revenue est: $6.39B

• Whirlpool Corp (WHR) - EPS est: $1.53, Revenue est: $4.28B

Check back daily for updates and insights into the earnings season and real-time results here and here. Do you want to trade the earnings of the biggest companies like a pro? Then get InvestingPro now and access over 1000 metrics that will give you a significant advantage in the shark tank that is Wall Street. Click here.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect

Stock Story

Fair Isaac

-2.13%

Credit scoring and analytics company FICO will be reporting earnings this Wednesday after market hours. Here’s what investors should know.

Fair Isaac Corporation met analysts’ revenue expectations last quarter, reporting revenues of $515.8 million, up 13.6% year on year. It was a slower quarter for the company, with full-year revenue guidance missing analysts’ expectations and a slight miss of analysts’ ARR estimates.

Is Fair Isaac Corporation a buy or sell going into earnings? Read our full analysis here, it’s free for active Edge members.

This quarter, analysts are expecting Fair Isaac Corporation’s revenue to grow 14.3% year on year to $502.7 million, in line with the 15.2% increase it recorded in the same quarter last year. Adjusted earnings are expected to come in at $7.08 per share.

Analysts covering the company have generally reconfirmed their estimates over the last 30 days, suggesting they anticipate the business to stay the course heading into earnings. Fair Isaac Corporation has missed Wall Street’s revenue estimates twice over the last two years.

Looking at Fair Isaac Corporation’s peers in the professional services segment, some have already reported their Q4 results, giving us a hint as to what we can expect. Brown & Brown delivered year-on-year revenue growth of 36%, missing analysts’ expectations by 2.2%, and Booz Allen Hamilton reported a revenue decline of 10.2%, falling short of estimates by 3.8%. Booz Allen Hamilton traded down 1.9% following the results.

Read our full analysis of Brown & Brown’s results here and Booz Allen Hamilton’s results here.

Investors in the professional services segment have had steady hands going into earnings, with share prices up 1.8% on average over the last month. Fair Isaac Corporation is down 12.5% during the same time and is heading into earnings with an average analyst price target of $2,034 (compared to the current share price of $1,552).

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ScanSource, Robert Half, ManpowerGroup, Fair Isaac Corporation, and Driven Brands Shares Skyrocket, What You Need To Know

Stock Story

What Happened?

A number of stocks jumped in the afternoon session after President Trump cooled fears of a transatlantic trade war by calling off scheduled tariffs on European allies.

The rally followed a productive meeting in Davos with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, where a "framework of a future deal" regarding Greenland and the Arctic region was established. By explicitly ruling out the use of military force and suspending the 10% tariffs previously set for February 1st, the administration provided the "sigh of relief" the market desperately needed after Tuesday's sharp sell-off.Technology and semiconductor leaders like Nvidia and AMD spearheaded the recovery as investors quickly pivoted back into growth stocks.

The "Sell America" trade from the prior session reversed sharply, with the Nasdaq Composite jumping 1.5% and the S&P 500 erasing its 2026 losses. This rebound was further supported by a stabilization in the bond market; as tariff-related inflation fears subsided, the 10-year Treasury yield retreated from its recent highs, creating a more favorable backdrop for equity valuations across the board.

The stock market overreacts to news, and big price drops can present good opportunities to buy high-quality stocks.

Among others, the following stocks were impacted:

IT Distribution & Solutions company ScanSource jumped 4.6%. Is now the time to buy ScanSource? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
Professional Staffing & HR Solutions company Robert Half jumped 3.6%. Is now the time to buy Robert Half? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
Professional Staffing & HR Solutions company ManpowerGroup jumped 2.8%. Is now the time to buy ManpowerGroup? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
Data & Business Process Services company Fair Isaac Corporation jumped 3.5%. Is now the time to buy Fair Isaac Corporation? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.
Industrial & Environmental Services company Driven Brands jumped 4.5%. Is now the time to buy Driven Brands? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free.

Zooming In On ScanSource (SCSC)

ScanSource’s shares are not very volatile and have only had 6 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful, although it might not be something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.

The biggest move we wrote about over the last year was 5 months ago when the stock gained 12.6% on the news that the major indices rebounded, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered dovish remarks at the much-awaited Jackson Hole symposium. Powell suggested that with inflation risks moderating and unemployment remaining low, the Federal Reserve might consider a shift in its monetary policy stance, including potential interest rate cuts. This outlook eased market concerns about prolonged high interest rates and their impact on economic growth. The prospect of lower borrowing costs bolstered investor confidence, particularly in sectors that have lagged, leading to a broad rally across the market.

ScanSource is up 5.4% since the beginning of the year, but at $41.18 per share, it is still trading 20.3% below its 52-week high of $51.68 from January 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of ScanSource’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $1,546.

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Kerrisdale Capital takes aim at Affirm as regulatory and credit risks mount

Investing.com

Advanced Micro Devices

-3.84%

Meta Platforms

+0.18%

Investing.com -- The short-selling firm Kerrisdale Capital released a blistering report on Affirm Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:AFRM) Wednesday morning, characterizing the "Buy Now, Pay Later" (BNPL) leader as a subprime lender in fintech clothing. Analysts at Kerrisdale argue that the company’s recent growth is an "illusion of resilience" built on aggressive credit extension to a financially fragile consumer base.

In response to the short, Affirm stock ticked slightly lower in Wednesday’s early trade, but quickly jumped 1.8%, as of 9:45 am ET.

The report highlights a significant shift in Affirm’s revenue model, noting that roughly half of its income now stems from interest on high-APR loans rather than merchant fees. "When a business shifts from financing Pelotons to installment plans for groceries, it is no longer ‘democratizing credit’ but rather levering the financially fragile," the firm stated in its analysis.

Affirm’s reliance on high-interest products faces a new existential threat from the shifting political landscape in Washington. President Trump’s recent call to cap credit card interest rates at 10% has placed Affirm’s average loan yield of 31% under immediate and intense scrutiny.

The firm notes that Affirm is a "poster child" for the high rates that Trump claimed have "festered unimpeded" and "ripped off" American consumers. Kerrisdale maintains that any legislative push to cap credit card APRs would inevitably collapse the distinction between cards and the functionally equivalent installment loans offered by Affirm.

Kerrisdale contends that Affirm’s business model is a "Rube Goldberg version of FinTech" that relies on a rent-a-bank structure to bypass state-level interest rate caps. The report suggests that the company’s thin capital buffers, with credit reserves at just 1% of gross merchandise volume, leave it with no margin for error as labor markets soften.

The short-seller warns that the company’s growth is increasingly driven by "extracting more borrowing from the same customers" rather than expanding its user base. According to the report, 96% of transactions in the most recent quarter came from repeat users, a trend Kerrisdale likens to late-cycle patterns seen in failed subprime lenders of the past.

As the U.S. labor market shows signs of fracturing, Affirm’s concentrated exposure to Millennial and Gen Z borrowers with subprime credit scores poses a direct threat to its valuation. Kerrisdale points to rising auto delinquencies and the end of student-loan forbearance as catalysts that will soon migrate onto Affirm’s balance sheet.

Experts cited in the report suggest that the "spending behavior of their customers has definitely changed and their delinquencies are up." With unemployment ticking higher, the firm predicts that the "illusion of resilience will fade," exposing a lender built for expansion rather than long-term endurance.

Kerrisdale has set a fair value estimate of $17 for Affirm, implying an 80% downside from current trading levels. The firm argues that the market currently values Affirm as a high-growth technology platform, ignoring its fundamental identity as a capital-intensive, unsecured consumer lender.

"Affirm has been dining out on easy credit and full employment," the report concludes, warning that "the bill is coming due." The short-seller expects a significant repricing toward book value as growth slows and the company is forced to rebuild its inadequate credit reserves.

The report further notes that Affirm’s product suite has become largely commoditized, with competition among BNPL providers described as "white hot." Analysts point to the loss of Affirm’s exclusive Walmart relationship to Klarna as evidence that merchant contracts are being won at increasingly thin or even negative margins.

Ultimately, Kerrisdale views Affirm as a balance-sheet lender that has only operated during an "unusually forgiving credit backdrop." As those tailwinds reverse, the firm believes the lack of structural operating leverage will be revealed as a central and potentially fatal flaw in the model.

Affirm’s executive team has consistently pushed back against "subprime" characterizations, framing their model as a more precise and humane evolution of consumer credit. Management argues that their system avoids the "debt traps" of traditional banking by eliminating the compounding interest and late fees that define the credit card industry.

Affirm’s Defense

Affirm’s primary defense rests on its "transaction-level" underwriting, which it claims is far more sophisticated than the static FICO-based models used by traditional lenders. In a January 2026 update, the company announced it had enhanced its underwriting to include "richer real-time signals like account balances and cash flow trends," specifically to ensure "more informed and responsible credit decisions" at the moment of purchase.

The company has stated that it "underwrites every single transaction" rather than granting a broad, revolving line of credit that a consumer might later abuse. This approach, Affirm argues, allows the company to pause use if payment is missed, a safeguard they claim results in around 98% of their lending being repaid successfully even among lower-FICO populations, according to the company’s November 2025 investor update.

On the threat of interest rate caps, Affirm leans on the "simple interest" nature of its loans as a point of distinction. They contend that their 30% APR is often more affordable than a lower credit card rate because Affirm’s interest never compounds and the total cost of the loan is disclosed upfront and never changes.

"Unlike most credit cards... we never charge any late or hidden fees," the company stated in its January 2026 shareholder materials, reinforcing its mission to "deliver honest financial products that improve lives."

In response to criticisms about financing necessities like groceries, Affirm positions itself as a tool for "financial inclusivity."

Affirm has not yet responded to Investing.com’s request for comment.

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Credit Bureaus Benefit From Strong 4Q Lending, Face 2026 Uncertainty — Market Talk

Dow Jones Newswires

Consumer lending was strong in the fourth quarter, BMO Capital Markets analysts say in a research note, and that strength likely benefited credit bureaus and scoring companies such as Equifax, Fair Isaac and TransUnion. The analysts caution, however, that momentum may not carry cleanly into the coming year. "Our main concern on the 2026 guidance is lender affordability and the extent to which this could meaningfully reduce industry volumes as lenders pull less credit," they write. As a result, they are keeping estimates for the year conservative, rather than flowing through upside from the recent quarter, despite bullish commentary on the lending environment. (connor.hart@wsj.com)

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