Ethereum Trades Near Whales’ Cost Basis For The Fourth Time Since 2021 – Historic Test

Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, has broadened support for USD1, the stablecoin tied to World Liberty Financial and US President Donald Trump’s crypto ventures, reports disclosed. The exchange added new spot pairs including ETH/USD1, SOL/USD1 and BNB/USD1, and enabled fee-free swaps between USD1 and other major stablecoins.

Binance Will Shift Collateral Into USD1

The exchange will convert all collateral backing its Binance-Peg BUSD (B-Token) into USD1 at a 1:1 ratio, a process the company said should be completed within one week. This change means USD1 is being folded into its internal collateral and liquidity systems rather than remaining only a tradable token.

Market Reaction And Liquidity Effects

Traders reacted quickly. Price moves in BNB and other tokens showed more buying interest after the announcement. Market data snapshots suggested a short-term uptick in BNB as liquidity and trading routes were expanded by the new USD1 pairs. Reports put the token’s wider market use and the platform’s zero-fee swaps as the likely drivers.

Backing, Size, And Recent Deals

According to public filings and market trackers, USD1 is backed by US Treasury bills, cash and equivalents and is redeemable at a one-for-one rate with the dollar.

The stablecoin has grown quickly and is now listed among the larger stablecoins by market cap, with figures around $2.7 billion cited in recent summaries. Reports have also linked USD1 to a major Abu Dhabi investment that used the token for a $2 billion deal. Political Context And Scrutiny

These commercial moves come after a politically charged episode: Trump granted a pardon earlier this year to Binance’s former CEO, an action that critics say raises questions about ties between Binance and the Trump family’s crypto interests.

That sequence of events has drawn scrutiny from lawmakers and commentators, who are asking for more transparency around the deals and any possible conflicts of interest.

Company spokespeople have issued short statements denying that any political favors were sought or exchanged to secure deals. Binance said its public notices focused on product rollouts, trading schedules and incentives like zero fees for certain users, while World Liberty Financial emphasized the reserve backing behind USD1.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

SHIB is seated in an uncomfortable but intriguing position. It is obvious that prices are not rising. All of the major moving averages aggressively cap the daily chart's extended downward trend, which has lower highs and lower lows. The 100 and 50 EMAs continue to slope downward, serving as dynamic resistance, while the 200 EMA is still well above. It is premature to discuss a trend reversal before at least the 50 EMA has recovered.

Shiba Inu's short-term trend

However, the price is no longer falling. We are currently witnessing compression. By creating a shallow ascending structure at the bottom, SHIB has created a short-term hybrid of a descending range and falling wedge. This area usually marks the beginning of a relief rally or a sideways market bleed before another leg down. Chart by TradingView">

Momentum indicators show this uncertainty. The RSI is stuck in the middle of the 40s, displaying neither strength nor panic. Although there are still sellers, they are no longer as aggressive.

Shiba Inu flows

On-chain flows are the crucial part. A one-day net exchange outflow of about 192.6 billion SHIB is not insignificant. That is a significant withdrawal of liquidity from exchanges, and it usually indicates transfers to cold storage or accumulation rather than getting ready to sell. In the past, sustained rallies on SHIB have only occurred after several days of negative exchange netflow. This is consistent with that early pattern.

What matters is the context. The price was still low when this outflow took place. This implies that instead of chasing candles, buyers are quietly absorbing supply. Although it lessens the pressure to sell right away, there is no assurance of an increase.

The likelihood of a brief bounce or squeeze rises if this behavior persists into the weekend, particularly if overall market conditions do not worsen. The primary invalidation is clear. The bullish implications of the outflow would be negated by a clear breakdown below the present consolidation base.

On the plus side, SHIB must recover and maintain the 50 EMA. Any higher move would still be a countertrend rally without that.

In summary, SHIB is not yet bullish, but it is also no longer blaringly weak. Instead of capitulation, the exchange outflow points to astute money positioning. A relief rally is possible if volume increases and price does the same. If not, more sideways movement should be anticipated before the market makes a move.

XRP has been under clear pressure in recent sessions, sliding toward its lowest price of the year as the broader crypto market continues to absorb heavy selling. Sentiment remains fragile, and many traders have shifted into defensive positioning while awaiting clearer macro signals.

According to a new report from CryptoQuant, however, the underlying picture is more complex than the price chart suggests. Despite the short-term decline, XRP whales are becoming increasingly active, showing no hesitation in trading and accumulating even as retail participation weakens.

This divergence between whale behavior and market sentiment is noteworthy. Historically, XRP’s most significant recoveries have begun during phases of deep pessimism, when large holders quietly build exposure rather than chase rallies.

The latest data confirms this pattern: while price approaches yearly lows, whale-driven transaction volume has risen, signaling that high-value wallets are repositioning rather than exiting.

Whale Accumulation and CVD Shift Signal a Potential XRP Bottom

The CryptoQuant report highlights that the recent surge in whale activity follows a pattern often observed during market bottoming phases. Large holders rarely accumulate aggressively during strong uptrends; instead, they tend to build positions quietly during periods of weakness, when sentiment is poor, and prices are depressed.

Their willingness to buy in the current environment—while XRP trades near yearly lows—suggests strategic positioning rather than speculative momentum chasing.

This behavior is typically interpreted as a pre-rally signal. When whales accumulate into weakness, it indicates confidence that current prices offer value and that the downside may be limited. Historically, such phases have preceded meaningful upside moves in XRP, as whale accumulation often absorbs available sell pressure and stabilizes market structure.

Supporting this view, the report also points to a notable shift in the XRP Spot Taker CVD, which has turned taker-buy dominant. This means that aggressive buyers are now driving more of the executed volume, reflecting strengthening demand in real time. A taker-buy dominant CVD often emerges before sustained rallies, as it highlights increasing willingness among market participants to buy at the ask rather than wait for dips.

Together, rising whale accumulation and a bullish CVD trend paint an increasingly constructive backdrop for XRP’s medium-term outlook.

Price Analysis: Testing Yearly Lows as Structure Weakens

XRP continues to trade near its yearly lows, with the chart showing a clear deterioration in trend structure. Price remains pinned below all major moving averages—the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day—indicating that bullish momentum has not yet returned. The persistent rejection at the 50-day moving average throughout November and December highlights the strength of overhead resistance and the absence of sustained buying pressure from the broader market.

The $2.00 region, now acting as a key horizontal support, has been tested multiple times over the past month. Each retest shows reduced volatility, suggesting that sellers are no longer driving aggressive breakdown attempts. But demand remains too weak to generate a meaningful rebound. A decisive loss of this level could open the door toward the $1.80–$1.90 support zone. XRP previously consolidated during the early stages of the 2025 rally.

Volume also confirms the broader downtrend. Selling spikes stand out noticeably, whereas buy-side volume remains muted. This imbalance reinforces the prevailing bearish structure, even as whale accumulation begins to appear on-chain.

For XRP to shift out of this downtrend, bulls must reclaim the 50-day moving average and produce higher lows. Until then, the chart signals continued caution. Whale activity must begin translating into visible spot demand, or the risk skews to the downside.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin continues to trade within the recent consolidation phase, hovering around $90,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors digest the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious December rate cut and its implications for risk assets. 

BTC price action approaches a key descending trendline that could determine its next directional move. Meanwhile, institutional flows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs showed mild inflows, and Strategy added more BTC to its treasury reserve.

Fed’s Policy Tone Triggers Consolidation in Bitcoin

Bitcoin price started the week on a positive note, extending its weekend recovery during the first half of the week and holding above $92,600 on Tuesday. 

However, momentum softened on Wednesday, with BTC closing at $92,015 after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. 

In a widely expected move, the Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points. But the FOMC meeting signaled a likely pause in January. 

Adding to the cautious tone, policymakers projected only a one-quarter-percentage-point cut for the overall 2026 outlook. This was the same outlook as in September, which tempered market expectations of two rate cuts and contributed to short-term pressure on risk assets. 

The Fed’s cautious tone, combined with disappointing Oracle earnings, contributed to a brief risk-off move. 

All these factors weighed on riskier assets, with the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization sliding to a low of $89,260 before rebounding and finishing above $92,500 on Thursday. 

With no major US data releases ahead, crypto markets will now look to FOMC member speeches and broader risk sentiment for direction

at the end of the week. 

BTC is likely to consolidate in the near term unless a significant catalyst emerges. 

Russia-Ukraine Uncertainty Limits Risk-on Momentum 

On the geopolitical front, US President Donald Trump is “extremely frustrated” with Russia and Ukraine, and he doesn’t want any more talk, his spokeswoman said on Thursday. 

Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the US was pushing the country to cede land to Russia as part of an agreement to end a nearly four-year war. 

These lingering geopolitical tensions and stalled peace talks continue to weigh on global risk sentiment, limiting risk-on appetite and contributing to Bitcoin’s consolidation so far this week. 

Institutional Demand Sees Mild Signs of Improvement 

Institutional demand for Bitcoin shows mild signs of improvement. 

According to SoSoValue data, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total inflow of $237.44 million through Thursday, following a mild outflow of $87.77 million a week earlier, signaling that institutional investor interest improved somewhat. 

However, these weekly inflows remain small relative to those observed in mid-September. For BTC to continue its recovery, the ETF inflows should intensify. 

On the corporate front, Strategy Inc. (MSTR) announced on Monday that it purchased 10,624 Bitcoin for $962.7 million between December 1 and 7 at an average price of $90,615. 

The firm currently holds 660,624 BTC, valued at $49.35 billion. Strategy still retains substantial capacity to raise additional capital, potentially allowing for further large-scale Bitcoin accumulation. 

On-Chain Data Shows Easing Selling Pressure 

CryptoQuant’s weekly report on Wednesday highlights that selling pressure on Bitcoin is beginning to ease.

The report notes that exchange deposits eased as large players reduced their transfers to exchanges. 

The graph below shows that the share of total deposits from large players has declined from a 24-hour average high of 47% in mid-November to 21% as of Wednesday. 

At the same time, the average deposit has declined by 36%, from 1.1 BTC in November 22 to 0.7 BTC. 

CryptoQuant concludes that, if selling pressure remains low, a relief rally could push Bitcoin back to $99,000. This level is the lower band of the Trader On-chain Realized Price bands, which is a price resistance during bear markets. 

After this level, the key price resistances are $102,000 (one-year moving average) and $112,000 (the Trader On-chain Realized price).

The Copper Research report also signaled optimism about Bitcoin. The report suggests that BTC’s four-year cycle hasn’t died; it has been replaced. 

Since the launch of spot ETFs, Bitcoin has exhibited repeatable Cost-Basis Return Cycles, as shown in the graph below.

Fadi Aboualfa, Head of Research at Copper, told FXStreet that “Since spot ETFs launched, Bitcoin has moved in repeatable mini-cycles where it pulls back to its cost basis and then rebounds by around 70%. 

With BTC now trading near its $84,000 cost basis, this pattern suggests a move north of $140,000 in the next 180 days. 

If the cost basis rises 10-15%, as in prior cycles, the resulting premium seen at past peaks produces a target range of $138,000 to $148,000. 

Bitcoin Santa Rally Ahead? 

Bitcoin posted a 17.67% loss in November, disappointing traders who had anticipated a rally based on its strong historical returns for the month (see CoinGlass data below). 

December has historically been a positive month for the king crypto, delivering an average return of 4.55%.

Looking at quarterly data, the fourth quarter (Q4) has been the best quarter for BTC in general, with an average return of 77.38%. 

Still, the performance in the last three months of 2025 has been underwhelming so far, posting for now a 19% loss.

Is BTC Setting a Bottom? 

Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows the price finding support around the 100-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $85,809, posting two consecutive green candles following a four-week correction that began in late October. 

As of this week, BTC is trading slightly higher, holding above $92,400. 

If BTC continues its recovery, it could extend the rally toward the 50-week EMA at $99,182.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart reads 40, pointing upward and indicating fading bearish momentum. For the recovery rally to be sustained, the RSI should move above the neutral level of 50. 

On the daily chart, Bitcoin’s price was rejected at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $94,253 (drawn from the April low of $74,508 to the all-time high of $126,199 set in October) on Wednesday. 

However, on Thursday, BTC rebounded after retesting its $90,000 psychological level. 

If BTC breaks above the descending trendline (drawn by connecting multiple highs since early October) and closes above the $94,253

resistance level, it could extend the rally toward the $100,000 psychological level. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is stable near the neutral 50 level, suggesting the lack of near-term momentum in either side. 

For the bullish momentum to be sustained, the RSI should move above the neutral level. 

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover at the end of November, which remains intact, supporting the bullish thesis. 

If BTC were to resume its downward correction, the first key support is at $85,569, which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

Bitcoin has broken from its long-standing correlation with equities, marking its first full-year divergence from stocks in over a decade.

The shift highlights a growing disconnect between crypto and traditional markets, raising questions about Bitcoin’s role in the current cycle.

A Historic Market Decoupling

Bitcoin and stocks have historically moved in tandem. However, that relationship appears to have fractured.

According to Bloomberg data, the S&P 500 has climbed more than 16% this year while Bitcoin is down 3%, marking the first such split since 2014.

Such a clean break is unusual even by crypto standards, prompting renewed scrutiny of Bitcoin’s role within global markets. The divergence challenges expectations that regulatory optimism and institutional participation would automatically translate into sustained performance.

It is especially striking given the broader environment, where artificial intelligence stocks are soaring, capital spending is accelerating, and investors are pouring back into equities. At the same time, traditional defensive assets are attracting attention, suggesting investors are reallocating rather than broadly embracing risk.

Crypto-specific pressures, including forced liquidations and a sharp decline in retail participation, have materially exacerbated Bitcoin’s underperformance. Billions of unwound positions have amplified downside moves, turning what began as a correction into an industry retreat.

As these signals accumulate, market sentiment has weakened, sparking debate over whether this represents a routine correction or a more significant structural change.

Normal Pullback Or Something More?

Bitcoin has long behaved as a momentum-driven asset, but the breakdown in sustained upside suggests that leadership within risk markets has shifted elsewhere.

Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have slowed, prominent endorsements have grown quieter, and key technical indicators are flashing renewed weakness.

Price action reflects that cooling confidence. Bitcoin has struggled to regain momentum since its October peak near $126,000 and is now hovering closer to $90,000, reinforcing the sense that this divergence is being driven by fading conviction rather than short-term volatility alone.

Despite the current divergence, longer time horizons complicate the narrative. 

On a multi-year basis, Bitcoin continues to outperform equities, suggesting the recent split may reflect earlier excess gains unwinding rather than a decisive break in trend. 

From that perspective, underperformance could still align with a normal pullback within a broader bull-market cycle, despite calendar-year contrasts.