Enbridge Announces C$2.5 Billion in Upgrades to its Oil and Gas Systems — OPIS

Less than 24 hours after issuing a cautious commentary on the path forward for oil, the commodities team at Citigroup sent a report Tuesday afternoon recommending a short sale in August Brent.

The report, titled Oil Selloff Has Legs: Sell Aug-2025 Brent, declared that Citi was fundamentally bearish thanks to its view that non-OPEC+ supply growth would offset global demand growth this year.

It added that Monday's OPEC+ decision to begin increasing output in April is a "materially bearish development" that is likely to loosen markets at a point when the global macro date is starting to soften.

The Citi analysts believe that the looser market will dampen risks around an acceleration in negotiations with Iran. They also point to the possibility that President Trump will engage with Russian President Vladimir Putin and help negotiate a deal with Iran.

Citi specifically recommended that commodity clients sell August 2025 Brent futures at $69.60/bbl. The bank acknowledged risks to the trade in the form of U.S./Iran escalation but said that the sale has perhaps $9/bbl of profit potential, tied to a likely downward trajectory. The weakness could be concentrated in the next three months, it added.

In an expansion of the commentary, the bank observed that OPEC+ increases in output could be paused or reversed as market conditions warrant, but it also said it believes that pressure from the Trump administration could be destabilizing for oil prices.

Citi analysts noted that previous worries about escalation between the U.S. and Iran were keeping them away from this trade. But they said the potential for such escalation is lower thanks to Trump/Putin engagement. They added that a Ukraine cease fire and more amenable tax policies for U.S. energy companies add to the downside risk.

In a final statement, Citi also said that the demand picture for oil is softening. It expects a U.S. growth lull thanks to negative economic surprises and the eventual pass-through of DOGE job cuts to the U.S. labor force.

This content was created by Oil Price Information Service, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. OPIS is run independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

• Reporting by Tom Kloza, tkloza@opisnet.com; Editing by Michael Kelly, mkelly@opisnet.com

US crude oil inventories dropped by 1.455 million barrels for the week ending February 28, 2025, following a 0.64 million-barrel drop the previous week, according to the American Petroleum Institute’s Weekly Statistical Bulletin.

This marks the second consecutive week of inventory drawdowns, reversing a five-week streak of increases.

The market had been expecting a smaller draw of 0.3 million barrels.

By Avi Salzman

An array of energy products are poised to become more expensive because of President Donald Trump's latest tariffs.

That includes gasoline, natural gas for heating, and even electricity. Both U.S. tariffs and retaliatory measures from trading partners will add to the burden. Consumers in some parts of the country will be harder hit than others, and states closer to the northern border are likely to be especially hard-hit.

In addition to putting 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada on Tuesday, Trump added a 10% tariff to Chinese goods, doubling a 10% levy he had put on China last month. Canadian energy will get a partial discount: The tariff will be 10% instead of 25%. But the sheer scale of Canadian energy imports to the U.S. means that the 10% tariff could impose billions of dollars of costs on consumers and businesses.

The U.S. imports around 4 million barrels of oil from Canada every day. That is about half of total U.S. imports, and far more than from any other country. U.S. refiners can't easily replace Canadian barrels because the energy system of the two countries is closely integrated. Refiners in the Midwest rely heavily on Canadian crude, which is heavier than most U.S. grades.

Mexico is America's second-largest source of imported oil.

The reliance on crude from Mexico and Canada mean that the cost of the tariffs will have to be borne in part by refiners and consumers. The "costs will make their way to consumers in the form of higher prices for gasoline, diesel, and other petroleum products starting today," wrote Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.

GasBuddy expects different regions to experience different price increases depending on their reliance on Canadian products. The boost to gasoline prices could be anywhere from five to 40 cents a gallon.

In the Northeast, prices could rise as much as 20 to 40 cents by mid-March, because states there import petroleum products such as gasoline directly from Canada. In the Midwest, where refiners process a lot of Canadian crude, prices could rise five to 20 cents per gallon, though the impact could take time to materialize as refiners work through their pre-tariff inventories.

In the Great Lakes area, including Michigan, prices could rise 10 to 25 cents, and in the Rockies, prices could go up 10 to 20 cents. In the South and some other areas, the tariffs probably won't have much impact because refiners in those parts of the country don't rely on Canadian crude. But the shift to spring driving season, with higher gasoline demand, may lead to price hikes nonetheless.

Natural gas, which is used for heating and electricity-generation, is also likely to get more expensive.

About 9% of U.S. natural gas comes from Canada. The American Gas Association, a trade group, calculated that consumers could end up paying $1.1 billion more a year due to the tariffs. "The effects would be especially pronounced in states where the natural gas system is most heavily integrated across the border with Canada, including Washington, Oregon, California, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine," the association said.

And electricity could get more expensive, too. Any change in natural-gas prices affects electricity because natural gas is the No. 1 fuel for U.S. power generation. But there could be even more direct effects.

The U.S. imports electricity from Canada, and the two nations have helped balance each other's grids for years. When hydroelectric power in parts of Canada falls, it can import U.S. electricity too. In 2023, the U.S. paid about $3.2 billion for electricity from Canada, with certain states relying on imports to a larger degree than others.

The biggest importers include New York, which relies heavily on Canadian power. The state imported hundreds of millions of dollars worth of electricity from Canada in 2024, according to the operator of the New York grid.

The language of Trump's tariff order leaves it somewhat unclear whether electricity imports will incur tariffs. The Trump administration didn't respond to a request for clarification.

The operators of both the New York and New England grids said in statements that they weren't sure if they were expected to impose tariffs on those imports. The New York grid operator said in a statement that there are "strong legal and policy arguments" that it will not have to impose or collect tariffs. New England also said that "based on legal precedent, we do not believe the tariffs placed on Canadian imports apply to electricity, but we are seeking additional guidance."

Both the New York and New England grid operators have proposed ways to collect tariffs to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, in case they need to collect them. If they do have to collect tariffs, it would almost certainly affect electricity prices, but it is still hard to tell by how much.

Another problem is that Canada is planning to retaliate against the U.S. by adding export taxes to electricity. Ontario Premier Doug Ford said that he plans to put a 25% tax on electricity the province sends to 1.5 million homes in New York, Michigan and Minnesota, according to The Wall Street Journal . If Trump escalates with more tariffs, Ontario could shut off electricity exports altogether.

Write to Avi Salzman at avi.salzman@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

Source: CME Group 
 
For previous business day 
PREV TOTAL subject to revisions. Source: CME Group 
 
                      Prev                         Net               Total 
Platinum             Total  Received Withdrawn  Change Adjustment    Today 
ASAHI DEPOSITORY LLC 
Registered               0         0        0       0         0          0 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                    0         0        0       0         0          0 
 
BRINK'S, INC. 
Registered         140,004         0        0       0         0    140,004 
Eligible            75,978         0        0       0         0     75,978 
Total              215,982         0        0       0         0    215,982 
 
CNT DEPOSITORY, INC. 
Registered           1,246         0        0       0         0      1,246 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                1,246         0        0       0         0      1,246 
 
DELAWARE DEPOSITORY 
Registered           4,373         0        0       0         0      4,373 
Eligible            20,946         0        0       0         0     20,946 
Total               25,319         0        0       0         0     25,319 
 
HSBC BANK, USA 
Registered           1,442         0        0       0         0      1,442 
Eligible             1,904         0        0       0         0      1,904 
Total                3,347         0        0       0         0      3,347 
 
INTERNATIONAL DEPOSITORY SERVICES OF DELAWARE 
Registered           3,845         0        0       0         0      3,845 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                3,845         0        0       0         0      3,845 
 
JP MORGAN CHASE BANK NA 
Registered          76,222         0        0       0         0     76,222 
Eligible            83,552         0        0       0         0     83,552 
Total              159,773         0        0       0         0    159,773 
 
LOOMIS INTERNATIONAL (US) LLC 
Registered         108,197         0        0       0         0    108,197 
Eligible            26,681         0        0       0         0     26,681 
Total              134,878         0        0       0         0    134,878 
 
MALCA-AMIT USA, LLC 
Registered             592         0        0       0         0        592 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                  592         0        0       0         0        592 
 
MANFRA, TORDELLA & BROOKES, INC. 
Registered           5,845         0        0       0         0      5,845 
Eligible             1,212         0        0       0         0      1,212 
Total                7,057         0        0       0         0      7,057 
 
COMBINED TOTALS 
Registered         341,767         0        0       0         0    341,767 
Eligible           210,273         0        0       0         0    210,273 
Total              552,040         0        0       0         0    552,040 
 
                      Prev                         Net               Total 
Palladium            Total  Received Withdrawn  Change Adjustment    Today 
ASAHI DEPOSITORY LLC 
Registered               0         0        0       0         0          0 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                    0         0        0       0         0          0 
 
BRINK'S, INC. 
Registered          21,829         0        0       0         0     21,829 
Eligible            13,549         0        0       0         0     13,549 
Total               35,378         0        0       0         0     35,378 
 
CNT DEPOSITORY, INC. 
Registered              97         0        0       0         0         97 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                   97         0        0       0         0         97 
 
DELAWARE DEPOSITORY 
Registered             786         0        0       0         0        786 
Eligible             3,208         0        0       0         0      3,208 
Total                3,994         0        0       0         0      3,994 
 
HSBC BANK, USA 
Registered             586         0        0       0         0        586 
Eligible             2,623         0        0       0         0      2,623 
Total                3,209         0        0       0         0      3,209 
 
INTERNATIONAL DEPOSITORY SERVICES OF DELAWARE 
Registered               0         0        0       0         0          0 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                    0         0        0       0         0          0 
 
JP MORGAN CHASE BANK NA 
Registered          12,746         0        0       0         0     12,746 
Eligible               728         0        0       0         0        728 
Total               13,474         0        0       0         0     13,474 
 
LOOMIS INTERNATIONAL (US) LLC 
Registered          16,998         0        0       0         0     16,998 
Eligible               301         0        0       0         0        301 
Total               17,299         0        0       0         0     17,299 
 
MALCA-AMIT USA, LLC 
Registered               0         0        0       0         0          0 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                    0         0        0       0         0          0 
 
MANFRA, TORDELLA & BROOKES, INC. 
Registered           2,116         0        0       0         0      2,116 
Eligible               630         0        0       0         0        630 
Total                2,746         0        0       0         0      2,746 
 
COMBINED TOTALS 
Registered          55,158         0        0       0         0     55,158 
Eligible            21,039         0        0       0         0     21,039 
Total               76,197         0        0       0         0     76,197 
 
Write to Rodney Christian at csstat@dowjones.com 

Livestock futures settle mixed, with lean hog futures dropping 1.9% to 82.45 cents a pound and live cattle futures rising 1.3% to $1.949 a pound. These different moves illustrate the difference in how tariffs may affect livestock - with the U.S. being a net importer of cattle and needs Mexican cattle for its beef market. U.S. hogs, on the other hand, have relied on export demand to support prices — and removing big buyers like China and Mexico hurt. "Are U.S. producers excited about selling more products to domestic consumers? It sounds good on paper-until you see how much pork, chicken, and dairy we sell to the world," says Steiner Consulting Group in a note. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

WINNIPEG, Manitoba--ICE Futures canola market fell sharply as markets reacted to the developing global trade war triggered by import tariffs imposed by the U.S. and resulting retaliation.

The U.S. is a major destination for Canadian canola oil, with that business now facing 25% tariffs. Broad weakness in the U.S. soy complex, as China announced its own countermeasures targeting U.S. agriculture, contributed to the weakness in canola on Tuesday.

European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil futures were also lower.

Chart-based selling was a feature, with some stops hit on the way down as speculators attempt to cover some of their large net long position.

Tightening supply projections and the need to ration demand remained supportive.

There were 73,961 contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 36,985 contracts changed hands.

Spreading accounted for 33,616 of the contracts traded.

Settlement prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

Contracts Prices Change

   May       621.30  dn 24.60 
   Jul       630.60  dn 23.30 
   Nov       621.20  dn 17.70 
   Jan       628.90  dn 16.90 
 

Spread trade prices are in Canadian dollars and the volume represents the number of spreads:

 
   Contracts  Prices                     Volume 
   Mar/May    11.00 under to 17.00 under      2 
   May/Jul     7.70 under to 9.50 under  11,794 
   May/Nov     6.60 over to 0.00 under       43 
   May/Jan     7.00 under                     1 
   Jul/Nov    14.80 over to 9.00 over     4,228 
   Jul/Jan     2.50 over to 2.40 over         2 
   Nov/Jan     6.70 under to 7.80 under     713 
   Jan/Mar     3.80 under to 4.00 under      17 
   Mar/May     2.30 under to 2.90 under       8 
 

Source: MarketsFarm, news@marketsfarm.com