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By Nick Devor
The spread of sports betting and rise of prediction markets pose an underappreciated threat to lenders such as Sallie Mae, Bank of America Securities analysts wrote in a research note.
"For lenders the increasing availability of online betting markets raises the potential for revolving debt spikes, accelerated defaults, and higher charge-off rates, particularly among subprime borrowers," the analysts wrote, adding that widespread sports wagering represents "a new risk for lenders, one that they have not had to deal with historically and underwriting models may need to be adapted."
Credit card issuers and firms that lend to lower-income borrowers "face elevated exposure as behavioral risks intersect with liquidity stress," the analysts wrote, calling out lenders Bread, Upstart, and One Main Financial as those most at risk.
Student loan issuers such as Sallie Mae and Navient could be affected as well, the research note said, and lenders aren't the only ones at risk.
"The negative financial impacts of sports betting are more pronounced for young men, especially in low-income areas," whose limited financial literacy makes them "highly susceptible to compulsive wagering and credit stress."
The research note, issued last week, suggests that the ease of betting on a sportsbook app can lead bettors to quickly accumulate losses without realizing the full extent of the damage done to their bank accounts. Analysts cite a U.S. News survey from July that found 25% of sports bettors have been unable to pay a bill because of their wagering habits.
While sports betting hasn't been legalized in 12 states, including California and Texas, it is effectively accessible nationwide thanks to prediction markets that offer sport event contracts. The federally-regulated financial instruments can replicate the kinds of wagers available on a sportsbook app such as DraftKings, such as parlay bets and wagers on an individual player's performance.
Prediction-market firms Kalshi and Polymarket have had a banner year, putting pressure on the gambling industry and crushing the stocks of DraftKings and FanDuel's parent Flutter Entertainment. But Bank of America analysts wrote that prediction markets don't just threaten sportsbooks.
"As these markets scale, lenders may face indirect exposure if borrowers use credit to fund speculative activity," the analysts wrote, "reinforcing the behavioral risk theme already evident in sports betting."
Write to Nick Devor at nicholas.devor@barrons.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
What Happened?
A number of stocks jumped in the afternoon session after renewed enthusiasm for Alphabet reinvigorated the artificial intelligence trade, propelling a market rebound heading into the Thanksgiving holiday.
The Nasdaq index jumped 2.6% and the S&P 500 gained 1.6%, driven by a 5% rally in Alphabet following the announcement of its upgraded Gemini 3 AI model. This optimism spilled over into the broader tech sector, lifting shares of Broadcom, Micron, and Palantir significantly.The rally built on momentum from the previous trading session, sparked by the New York Fed president keeping the door open for a December interest rate cut.
The stock market overreacts to news, and big price drops can present good opportunities to buy high-quality stocks.
Among others, the following stocks were impacted:
Zooming In On AppLovin (APP)
AppLovin’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 61 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The previous big move we wrote about was 4 days ago when the stock gained 4% on the news that strong results from chipmaker Nvidia, eased lingering concerns about a potential bubble in the artificial intelligence sector.
The tech giant delivered another blockbuster earnings report, with sales, profits, and guidance exceeding Wall Street expectations. CEO Jensen Huang let the data do the talking as he acknowledged the growing sentiment about an AI bubble, while affirming that sales for Nvidia's current-generation GPU, called Blackwell (mostly used for AI applications), are "off the charts." A stronger-than-expected September jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reinforced this bullish sentiment. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 119,000, easily surpassing the consensus estimates of 50,000. While the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% and wage growth slowed slightly, the data suggest the U.S. economy remains on a firm footing.While this resilience made some investors unsure of the Fed's December rate decision, the market welcomed the news, rallying on the strength of a solid economy and a booming tech sector.
AppLovin is up 63.3% since the beginning of the year, but at $558.03 per share, it is still trading 22.3% below its 52-week high of $718.54 from September 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of AppLovin’s shares at the IPO in April 2021 would now be looking at an investment worth $8,559.
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