Investing.com -- Yardeni Research says 2026 could break a long-standing pattern on Wall Street, marking a year in which analysts don’t cut their earnings forecasts for S&P 500 companies as the calendar unfolds.
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In a new note, the firm wrote that “2026 may be a rare year in which analysts’ estimates for S&P 500 companies aren’t whittled down as the months pass.”
Typically, forecasts fall steadily, with only “eight years in the past 30 were exceptions,” Yardeni Research said.
But analysts’ numbers for next year have been improving since mid-2025, reversing the usual trend.
The firm noted that “most of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors have improved or stabilized estimates since the Q2 earnings reporting season ended in July.”
Yardeni stated that consensus 2026 revenues for the index are now unchanged year-to-date, after being down 1.6% at the end of July.
The firm added that these forecasts “typically… would be about 1%-2% lower by now.” Several sectors, including Information Technology, Health Care, and Communication Services,have posted gains of 2.6% to 6.4% in revenue estimates.
On earnings, the S&P 500’s 2026 forecast is down just 0.6% this year, a major improvement from the 4.1% decline seen in July. Four sectors, Technology, Communication Services, Financials, and Utilities, have already posted higher earnings estimates year-to-date.
Forward-looking metrics are also said to support the idea of a rare upward-trending year.
Yardeni Research noted that forward revenues have risen “5.8% ytd,” while forward earnings are up “11.9% ytd - well above” typical levels.
Stronger consumer spending adds another layer of support. Yardeni Research highlighted a “merry start” to the holiday shopping season, with shoppers spending more than last year across both online and physical stores.
