Dj Holder Balogh Registers 650 Of Airbnb Inc >Abnb

By Nate Wolf

The 2026 FIFA World Cup represents big business for ticket resellers, travel platforms, and even members of the Magnificent Seven tech giants — assuming the iconic soccer tournament goes to plan.

Between June 11 and July 19, 48 teams will play 104 matches across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Billions of fans will tune in or even make the trip to North America. And investors are also showing interest in the tournament, analysts at J.P. Morgan said in a research note Wednesday.

The firm's internet analysts see several beneficiaries across their coverage, from StubHub Holdings and Uber Technologies to Meta Platforms and Alphabet. But worries about ticket prices, U.S. travel restrictions on foreigners, and a potential Immigration and Customs Enforcement presence at matches could complicate things.

Let's start with ticketing. FIFA received more than 500 million ticket requests in December and January in its random draw for just seven million available tickets. That means a massive resale market, which J.P. Morgan estimates at $1 billion to $1.8 billion.

While FIFA's official resale marketplace will present competition, StubHub should claim a 35% to 45% chunk of that market, J.P. Morgan estimates, generating $400 million to $800 million in gross merchandise sales.

"Demand for 2026 tickets has already outpaced what we saw for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar," StubHub said in a blog post last month. "And we're still months away from kickoff."

On the travel and lodging side, Airbnb will attract fans buzzing around the continent to follow their teams, and Uber and Lyft will transport supporters to and from matches.

Airbnb acts as a kind of release valve for travel demand given its expansive geographic coverage and short-term rental flexibility, J.P. Morgan said. The company announced an official accommodations partnership with FIFA last summer, claiming at the time that over 380,000 guests would use the platform for lodging during the World Cup.

Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan sees Uber and Lyft bringing in an incremental $377 million and $153 billion in gross bookings, respectively. Uber and official World Cup delivery partner DoorDash could also see an uptick in food-delivery demand.

Lastly, the World Cup is a draw for advertisers, generating $2.4 billion in digital ad revenue in 2018 and an estimated $5.2 billion this year. That ad spend should translate to $900 million in revenue for Google through search and YouTube ads and a $550 revenue million bump for Meta, J.P. Morgan says.

All of these estimates, though, assume fans will freely travel to matches and that guest nations will treat the 2026 installment like any other World Cup. That assumption could be put to the test.

Fans have balked at the exorbitant starting ticket prices for the event, which reached well into the thousands, with FIFA President Gianni Infantino defending those prices given the "crazy demand." Infantino is probably correct — enough affluent people love soccer just that much — but fan backlash could make StubHub queasy about resellers listing tickets for several times their face value.

Then there are the political risks. The U.S. has full or partial travel restrictions on at least four World Cup competitors: Iran, Haiti, Senegal, and Ivory Coast. And concerns around immigration enforcement could deter some fans.

Asked last month whether ICE could be present at matches, the White House's World Cup task force lead, Andrew Giuliani, told reporters "the President does not rule out anything that will help make American citizens safer."

This week, former FIFA President Sepp Blatter joined a growing chorus calling for a boycott of the event in the U.S. in response to President Donald Trump's immigration crackdown and saber-rattling against Greenland.

The chances of any actual cancellations or boycotts are slim. The 2022 World Cup in Qatar also faced a political firestorm over worker deaths, documented human rights abuses, and limitations on LGBTQ and women's rights. Some teams planned quiet protests, but none opted out.

That said, demonstrations, geopolitical squabbles, and some impact on demand aren't out of the question.

For investors, it is safe to assume that many of the world's biggest companies will get a bump from the World Cup. They may just want to bake in a tiny bit of risk.

Write to Nate Wolf at nate.wolf@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

Airbnb is set up to be one of the primary benefactors among travel companies from the World Cup, JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth says. Compared with hotels, Airbnb listings cover nearly twice the number of zip codes in host cities, making it the "go-to 'relief-valve' for event-driven demand," Anmuth says. Demand for World Cup attendance is already far outpacing supply, with more than 500 million requests for tickets compared with the roughly 7 million tickets that are available, he says. Data shows Airbnb could capture 2.7 million guest nights and $330 million in guest spend on accommodations related to the event, says Anmuth. (katherine.hamilton@wsj.com)