Dj Global Business Travel Price Target Raised To $12.00/Share From $10.00 By Evercore Isi Group

What Happened?

A number of stocks jumped in the afternoon session after renewed enthusiasm for Alphabet reinvigorated the artificial intelligence trade, propelling a market rebound heading into the Thanksgiving holiday. The Nasdaq index jumped 2.6% and the S&P 500 gained 1.6%, driven by a 5% rally in Alphabet following the announcement of its upgraded Gemini 3 AI model. This optimism spilled over into the broader tech sector, lifting shares of Broadcom, Micron, and Palantir significantly.The rally built on momentum from the previous trading session, sparked by the New York Fed president keeping the door open for a December interest rate cut.

The stock market overreacts to news, and big price drops can present good opportunities to buy high-quality stocks.

Among others, the following stocks were impacted:

• Spend Management Software company American Express Global Business Travel jumped 3.7%. Is now the time to buy American Express Global Business Travel? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free for active Edge members.
• Developer Operations company JFrog jumped 2.6%. Is now the time to buy JFrog? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free for active Edge members.
• Vertical Software company Alarm.com jumped 4.6%. Is now the time to buy Alarm.com? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free for active Edge members.
• Endpoint Security company CrowdStrike jumped 3.2%. Is now the time to buy CrowdStrike? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free for active Edge members.

Zooming In On Alarm.com (ALRM)

Alarm.com’s shares are not very volatile and have only had 5 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful, although it might not be something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.

The previous big move we wrote about was 3 days ago when the stock gained 5% on the news that comments from a key Federal Reserve official bolstered hopes for an interest rate cut. 

The positive sentiment followed comments from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams, a voting member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), who indicated he sees room for further policy easing. Following his remarks, the probability of a December rate cut surged from 39% to 71%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, causing Treasury yields to fall. Lower interest rates can be particularly beneficial for growth-oriented sectors like software, as they increase the present value of future earnings. This renewed hope provided a boost to the sector, which had recently faced pressure from concerns over high valuations in artificial intelligence.

Alarm.com is down 12% since the beginning of the year, and at $52.64 per share, it is trading 23.5% below its 52-week high of $68.81 from December 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Alarm.com’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $738.94.

What Happened?

A number of stocks jumped in the afternoon session after comments from a key Federal Reserve official bolstered hopes for an interest rate cut. The positive sentiment followed comments from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams, a voting member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), who indicated he sees room for further policy easing. Following his remarks, the probability of a December rate cut surged from 39% to 71%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, causing Treasury yields to fall. Lower interest rates can be particularly beneficial for growth-oriented sectors like software, as they increase the present value of future earnings. This renewed hope provided a boost to the sector, which had recently faced pressure from concerns over high valuations in artificial intelligence.

The stock market overreacts to news, and big price drops can present good opportunities to buy high-quality stocks.

Among others, the following stocks were impacted:

• Content Delivery company F5 jumped 3.5%. Is now the time to buy F5? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free for active Edge members.
• Payments Software company Flywire jumped 3.7%. Is now the time to buy Flywire? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free for active Edge members.
• Advertising Software company PubMatic jumped 4%. Is now the time to buy PubMatic? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free for active Edge members.
• Vertical Software company Bentley Systems jumped 3.7%. Is now the time to buy Bentley Systems? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free for active Edge members.
• Spend Management Software company American Express Global Business Travel jumped 4.1%. Is now the time to buy American Express Global Business Travel? Access our full analysis report here, it’s free for active Edge members.

Zooming In On American Express Global Business Travel (GBTG)

American Express Global Business Travel’s shares are not very volatile and have only had 9 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful, although it might not be something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.

The biggest move we wrote about over the last year was 4 months ago when the stock gained 13.2% on the news that the company reported second-quarter financial results that surpassed expectations and raised its full-year guidance. 

The company's revenue increased 1% year-over-year to $631 million, while adjusted EBITDA grew 4% to $133 million. In another positive development, the U.S. Department of Justice dismissed its lawsuit that challenged the acquisition of CWT. The strong performance prompted an analyst at Deutsche Bank to raise the price target on the stock while the firm maintained a 'Buy' rating. Management also announced plans to activate a $300 million share buyback program.

American Express Global Business Travel is down 22.4% since the beginning of the year, and at $7.11 per share, it is trading 25.7% below its 52-week high of $9.56 from December 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of American Express Global Business Travel’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $736.27.

American Express Global Business Travel’s third quarter was marked by strong top-line growth but significant margin pressure, with the market reacting negatively to the results. Management attributed the revenue acceleration to the recent acquisition of CWT and ongoing momentum in the core business, citing higher transaction volumes, increased average ticket prices, and robust customer retention. CEO Paul Abbott highlighted the importance of the CWT deal, describing it as an “important milestone for growth and value creation,” while also noting the integration’s immediate impact on both revenue and operating expenses. Despite the revenue gains, adjusted operating margins declined notably year-over-year, as incremental costs from CWT and ongoing investments weighed on profitability.

Is now the time to buy GBTG? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).

American Express Global Business Travel (GBTG) Q3 CY2025 Highlights:

• Revenue: $674 million vs analyst estimates of $613 million (12.9% year-on-year growth, 10% beat)
• Adjusted EPS: $0.07 vs analyst expectations of $0.12 (43.5% miss)
• Adjusted Operating Income: $12 million vs analyst estimates of $79.41 million (1.8% margin, 84.9% miss)
• Operating Margin: 1.8%, down from 4.5% in the same quarter last year
• Transaction Value: 9.52 billion, up 1.77 billion year on year
• Market Capitalization: $3.76 billion

While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.

Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From American Express Global Business Travel’s Q3 Earnings Call

• Lee Horowitz (Deutsche Bank) asked about the outlook for corporate travel demand in light of customer budget expectations and the impact of the “big beautiful bill.” CEO Paul Abbott said recent surveys indicate either stable or moderately improving travel budgets for 2026, and he expressed cautious optimism about organic growth and meetings bookings.

• Duane Pfennigwerth (Evercore ISI) inquired about underlying macro trends for business travel and how demand now compares to earlier in the year. Abbott explained that the expected improvement in demand materialized in Q3, and management anticipates further organic growth in Q4.

• James Goodall (Rothschild and Co-Redburn) questioned which metrics will be used to assess the success of the new SAP Complete and Egencia solutions. Abbott responded that management will track growth acceleration, customer retention, delivered savings, and the share of digital transactions.

• Stephen Ju (UBS) sought clarity on Egencia’s recovery to pre-pandemic levels and the strategies for unlocking SME market growth. Abbott emphasized significant runway in the SME segment and cited investments in product evolution and the SAP partnership as key enablers.

• Toni Kaplan (Morgan Stanley) probed the competitive landscape for AI-powered travel platforms and how AI efficiencies are factored into future earnings. Abbott and CFO Karen Williams underscored AI’s role in both revenue and cost improvements, and stated that further efficiencies could enhance profitability beyond current projections.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

In the coming quarters, our analysts will focus on (1) the pace and impact of synergy realization from the CWT integration, (2) adoption and customer feedback for the new SAP Complete and next-gen Egencia solutions, and (3) continued progress in expanding the SME customer base through cross-selling and digital initiatives. Execution on AI-driven operational improvements and updates on margin recovery will also be closely monitored.

American Express Global Business Travel currently trades at $7.20, down from $8.11 just before the earnings. Is there an opportunity in the stock?See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).

High-Quality Stocks for All Market Conditions

Your portfolio can’t afford to be based on yesterday’s story. The risk in a handful of heavily crowded stocks is rising daily.

The names generating the next wave of massive growth are right here in our Top 5 Strong Momentum Stocks for this week. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 244% over the last five years (as of June 30, 2025).

Stocks that have made our list include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,326% between June 2020 and June 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-micro-cap company Tecnoglass (+1,754% five-year return).