Dj Forestar Group Price Target Raised To $38.00/Share From $36.00 By Citigroup

Forestar Group’s fourth quarter results were met with a significant negative market reaction, reflecting concerns about underlying performance despite a top-line revenue beat. Management attributed the quarter’s revenue growth to a greater mix of higher-priced lot deliveries and expansion in western markets. However, lower sales volumes and a decline in operating margin signaled ongoing challenges. CFO Jim Allen highlighted that the quarter’s margins were impacted by project mix and a specific low-margin track sale, with normalized gross margins remaining under pressure from slower demand and affordability constraints.

Forestar Group (FOR) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:

• Revenue: $273 million vs analyst estimates of $267.5 million (9% year-on-year growth, 2.1% beat)
• Adjusted EPS: $0.30 vs analyst estimates of $0.30 (in line)
• Adjusted EBITDA: $19.4 million vs analyst estimates of $14 million (7.1% margin, 38.6% beat)
• Operating Margin: 6.8%, down from 8.1% in the same quarter last year
• Sales Volumes fell 16.7% year on year (-25.9% in the same quarter last year)
• Market Capitalization: $1.25 billion

While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.

Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Forestar Group’s Q4 Earnings Call

• Asher Sohnen (Citigroup) asked about drivers behind gross margin declines, particularly excluding the impact of the low-margin track sale. CFO Jim Allen responded that project mix was the primary factor, with margins expected to remain at the lower end of the historical range if demand stays soft.
• Asher Sohnen (Citigroup) inquired about any pricing pushback from customers such as D.R. Horton. Allen explained that pricing has largely stabilized, with customers moving away from large bulk purchases to more structured quarterly takedowns, which has normalized the market environment.
• Asher Sohnen (Citigroup) questioned the outlook for SG&A expenses. Allen indicated that headcount is down slightly and expected to stay stable, implying SG&A will remain flat barring significant operational changes.
• Paul Pescielski (Wolfe Research) asked if higher average sales prices were planned or market-driven, and about the split between entry-level and move-up lots. CEO Andy Oxley clarified that the higher ASP was planned due to western market expansion but reaffirmed a sustained focus on entry-level product.
• Paul Pescielski (Wolfe Research) questioned the approach to Texas and Florida given higher inventory levels. Oxley said development is being selectively moderated in these areas, but long-term fundamentals remain attractive, and capital allocation will continue to adapt to local conditions.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

In the coming quarters, our analysts will watch closely for (1) signs of stabilization in sales volumes and gross margins as Forestar Group adapts lot delivery pace to market conditions, (2) evidence of successful capital reallocation between challenged and resilient regions, and (3) sustained SG&A discipline alongside operational efficiency improvements. The evolution of demand in key states like Texas and Florida, as well as the company’s ability to capitalize on its liquidity advantage, will also be important to monitor.

Forestar Group currently trades at $24.50, down from $27.40 just before the earnings. In the wake of this quarter, is it a buy or sell? The answer lies in our full research report (it’s free).

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Residential lot developer Forestar Group reported Q4 CY2025 results beating Wall Street’s revenue expectations, with sales up 9% year on year to $273 million. The company expects the full year’s revenue to be around $1.65 billion, close to analysts’ estimates. Its non-GAAP profit of $0.30 per share was in line with analysts’ consensus estimates.

Forestar Group (FOR) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:

• Revenue: $273 million vs analyst estimates of $267.5 million (9% year-on-year growth, 2.1% beat)
• Adjusted EPS: $0.30 vs analyst estimates of $0.30 (in line)
• Adjusted EBITDA: $19.05 million vs analyst estimates of $14 million (7% margin, 36.1% beat)
• Operating Margin: 6.8%, down from 8.1% in the same quarter last year
• Sales Volumes fell 16.7% year on year (-25.9% in the same quarter last year)
• Market Capitalization: $1.32 billion

StockStory’s Take

Forestar Group’s fourth quarter results drew a negative market response as revenue growth was offset by margin compression and declining sales volumes. Management attributed the 9% revenue increase to a favorable mix of higher-priced lot deliveries, particularly in the West, but acknowledged that lower overall lot sales and a significant track sale with an unusually low margin weighed on profitability. CEO Andy Oxley noted that affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment continued to slow homebuilding activity, while CFO Jim Allen cited mix-related impacts and ongoing pricing discipline. The company’s leadership remained cautious, emphasizing the importance of managing inventory and investment in a softer demand environment.

Looking forward, Forestar Group’s guidance reflects ongoing headwinds tied to home affordability and consumer caution. Management expects the focus on entry-level and first-time buyer segments to remain central, with continued moderation of land acquisition and development in challenged markets such as Texas and Florida. CEO Andy Oxley said, “We are being very selective in what we are looking at and what we are doing there,” and highlighted the company’s operational flexibility to shift capital across its national platform. The leadership also expects gross margins to remain at the lower end of the historical range as price and pace are balanced in a slower market.

Key Insights from Management’s Remarks

Management cited project mix, regional trends, and disciplined inventory management as key influences on fourth-quarter performance and the company’s forward strategy.

• Project mix impacts margins: The quarter’s gross margin was pressured by a higher proportion of lot deliveries from communities with elevated price points in the West, as well as a low-margin track sale. CFO Jim Allen indicated this mix-driven effect is likely to persist at the lower end of the company’s historical margin range in the near term.
• Volume and demand trends: Management highlighted that overall lot sales volumes declined year over year, with CEO Andy Oxley pointing to affordability constraints and continued consumer caution as primary drivers. However, incentives from builders, such as mortgage rate buy-downs, partially supported demand at lower price points.
• Geographic rebalancing: The company is actively moderating development activity in Texas and Florida due to higher resale inventory and more challenging market dynamics. Oxley emphasized that these states remain important but require selective investment based on shifting conditions and in-migration trends.
• Customer dependency and diversification: D.R. Horton remains Forestar’s largest customer, accounting for a significant portion of lot sales. Efforts to diversify the customer base include sales to lot bankers and six other homebuilders in the quarter, but management acknowledged the continued importance of D.R. Horton as a growth channel.
• Operational discipline and liquidity: Forestar preserved strong liquidity, ending the quarter with $820 million available, and kept headcount flat. The company continued to prioritize capital efficiency, aiming for a three-to-four-year owned land supply and timely inventory turnover to match market demand.

Drivers of Future Performance

Forestar’s forward-looking strategy centers on operational flexibility, selective market participation, and margin management in response to macro headwinds.

• Margin preservation focus: Management expects gross margins to remain at the lower end of the historical 21% to 23% range, as efforts to balance price and pace in a slower demand environment put pressure on profitability. CFO Jim Allen noted that while project mix will continue to affect margins, cost controls and operational efficiency will be key priorities.
• Selective land development: The company is moderating land acquisition and development activity in markets with elevated resale inventory, such as Texas and Florida, to avoid excess supply. CEO Andy Oxley stated that capital will be allocated dynamically across regions, leveraging Forestar’s national footprint to match local market conditions.
• Demand stabilization efforts: Forestar remains focused on supplying lots for entry-level and first-time homebuyer segments, which represent the largest share of new home demand. Management believes that maintaining affordability can help support volumes, particularly as mortgage incentives from builders continue to bridge the gap for cautious buyers.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will closely monitor (1) the pace of lot deliveries and inventory turnover as Forestar seeks to match supply with shifting market demand, (2) margin stabilization and whether gross profit remains within management’s targeted range, and (3) regional adjustments in land acquisition and development, particularly in Texas and Florida. The balance between customer concentration and efforts to diversify the buyer base will also be important to track.

Forestar Group currently trades at $26.25, down from $27.40 just before the earnings. Is the company at an inflection point that warrants a buy or sell? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).