Did BTC's Santa rally start at $89K? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Cointelegraph

Bitcoin starts the second week of December above $90,000 as “Santa rally” talk begins.

BTC price action focuses on a key resistance area in the low $90,000 region, but traders still see another dip coming.
Federal interest-rate decision week hangs over risk assets despite broad consensus that a cut will result.
The Fed decision will decide the fate of a Santa rally for stocks, analysis agrees.
For Bitcoin, seasonality suggests that this year’s “bear market” bottom timing could echo 2022.
Open interest and leverage stay muted in what could be light at the end of the tunnel for the bulls.

Fibonacci level becomes key BTC price floor

Bitcoin price volatility made a comeback into the weekly close — a pattern seen increasingly often this quarter.

After dipping to near $87,000, managed a weekly close around the $90,000 mark before further erratic moves on lower time frames, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms.

Traders thus stayed wary of fakeout moves in both directions.

In his latest X thread on BTC, trader CrypNuevo eyed the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) as a potential retest target.

“For shorts, I'm looking for a 1D50EMA retest and I'm thinking that it'll adjust around $95.5k and be the range highs,” he forecast.

CrypNuevo said that Bitcoin lacked a “clear base” for going long, with the low $80,000 zone still on the table.

“Some liquidations in both directions but slightly more to the upside in the zone between $94.5k-$95.3k. If price gets there first, I'll be looking for short signals to a potential low $80's retest,” he added alongside charts of exchange order-book liquidity data.

Crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe was more hopeful, referring to “intense” pressure among Bitcoin buyers at local lows.

“Given that there's such an intense buying pressure taking place, I would assume we'll be breaking upwards and holding above $92K in the coming days,” he told X followers Monday.

“That would result in a rally towards $100K pre-2026.”

To the downside, trader Daan Crypto Trades used Fibonacci retracement levels to flag bulls’ line in the sand. This stands at $84,000, a level that saw a retest to start December.

“Still holding on to that .382 area from the entire bull market so far,” he wrote in accompanying analysis.

“I think this is a key area for the bulls to defend. It's also pretty much the last major support before testing the April lows again, which would break this high timeframe market structure.”

FOMC week sees Fed caught short on labor market

Little by way of US macroeconomic data releases this week means that the focus is purely on the Federal Reserve.

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet to decide interest-rate changes, and markets are betting on a 0.25% cut.

Recent jobs data points to deterioration in the labor market — and hence more of a need to lower rates. Analysis sees the Fed pinned between a rock and a hard place as inflation remains a problem that would be exacerbated by a cut.

“Nonfarm payrolls have now posted 5 declines over the last 7 months, the worst streak in at least 5 years,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of a weekend X post on US employment data.

“Deterioration of the job market is accelerating.”

Analytics resource Mosaic Asset Company struck a more optimistic tone, seeing an ideal combination of tailwinds for risk assets.

“With inflation above target, the economy holding up fine, and the S&P 500 near all-time highs, the Fed looks set to cut rates for a third consecutive meeting,” it summarized in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”

Mosaic added that it “can’t imagine more bullish conditions to help drive the stock market than rate cuts into loose financial conditions with the economy showing signs of continued growth which supports the earnings outlook.”

On FOMC day, meanwhile, markets will watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell for signals over future policy trajectory as he delivers a speech and takes press questions after the rate announcement.

This weekend, Kobeissi described Powell’s dismissal of “stagflation” risks at the May 2024 FOMC press conference as “the day the Fed lost control.”

The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetter
May 4th, 2024: The day the Fed lost control.
Fed Chair Powell responds to concerns about stagflation, "I don't see the stag or the flation."
18 months later, inflation is still at 3%+ and the labor market is at its weakest level since the pandemic.
Own assets. pic.twitter.com/gpBdXnfH7Y
Dec 06, 2025

Santa rally buzz gets Fed proviso

If stocks are in for a perfect cocktail of bullish catalysts to round out the year, crypto commentators are already discussing the odds of the “Santa rally” spilling over.

Mister Crypto
@misterrcrypto
The Santa rally is real, but the timing is all over the place.
Will we get a Santa rally this year? 👇 pic.twitter.com/YnsAjXqBbx
Dec 06, 2025

As Cointelegraph reported, crypto has vastly underperformed stocks in Q4, with the S&P 500 just inches from new all-time highs.

Network economist Timothy Peterson notes that the stars tend to align for Bitcoin more often than not into year end.

Among those taking the opposite side, however, is Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of crypto analytics platform Alphractal. , he argued, is due a “sideways” end to 2025.

“Every year, Bitcoin spends an average of 170 days in negative territory,” Wedson explained alongside a chart of accumulated negative BTC price trading days.

“In 2025, it has already accumulated 171 negative days — which strongly suggests this year is likely to close in a sideways price range. If a deeper drop is coming, it will most likely happen in 2026.”

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on the Santa outcome still being at the mercy of the Fed.

“The pullback in the S&P 500 from late October into November happened alongside falling odds for another rate cut this month. Recent comments from key Fed officials helped drive odds for a cut back higher, which also sparked a recovery in the stock market,” Mosaic Asset Company agreed.

Is $89,000 the new $16,000 for Bitcoin?

When it comes to Bitcoin price cycles and seasonality, the latest data gives bulls reason to stay confident on the outlook.

Uploaded to X this weekend by Peterson, a comparison between this year and in 2022-23 suggests that a long-term price bottom should be either complete or around the corner.

In late 2022, Bitcoin put in a multiyear low of $15,600 as it bottomed out after a brutal bear market in which it lost 80% versus old all-time highs.

Its rebound set in as soon as 2023 began, and if history were to repeat, hodlers may have just weeks to wait until upward momentum returns.

“$89,000 is the new $16,000,” Peterson summarized.

As Cointelegraph reported, comparisons to 2022 have become more frequent since October, when Bitcoin abruptly abandoned its successive run of new all-time highs to dive 36% over a six-week period.

In late November, Peterson said that the price correlation with 2022 had reached 98% on monthly timeframes.

Open interest spells out Bitcoin “apathy”

An encouraging signal from Bitcoin derivatives markets is keeping a full-on market rally possible.

New data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant confirms that open interest (OI) across Bitcoin exchanges has dropped to its lowest levels since April, when traded at $75,000.

“This decline typically reflects two things: 1) investor capitulation, or 2) investor apathy,” contributor COINDREAM commented in one of CryptoQuant’s “Quicktake” blog posts Monday.

“Historically, periods of apathy and low participation have often marked attractive buy-the-dip opportunities.”

COINDREAM noted that despite the modest BTC price rebound versus recent lows of $80,500, traders have not been tempted to deploy leverage.

“Excessive leverage usually acts as a drag on market direction. However, as prices have recently rebounded, leverage levels have normalized, reducing systemic risk,” it continued.

CryptoQuant’s estimated leverage ratio metric, which divides OI by BTC reserves, has declined significantly since mid-November.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

US Treasurys lead tokenization wave as CoinShares predicts 2026 growth

Cointelegraph

Digital asset investment company CoinShares predicts that the surge in tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) in 2025 will continue into 2026, driven by increasing global demand for dollar yield.

In its 2026 Digital Asset Outlook report, CoinShares said tokenized RWAs saw strong growth in 2025, led by tokenized US Treasurys. According to the report, onchain Treasurys more than doubled this year, climbing from $3.91 billion to $8.68 billion. Private credit nearly doubled as well, rising from $9.85 billion to $18.58 billion over the same period.

“Tokenisation has materially moved beyond the longtime narrative of crypto enthusiasts,” CoinShares digital asset analyst Matthew Kimmell said. “Real assets, issued by reputable firms, receiving material investment. Even real regulators engage with crypto rails as credible infrastructure.”

Ethereum remains the most dominant network for tokenized US Treasurys. Data from RWA.xyz showed that as of Monday, Ethereum has over $4.9 billion in US Treasurys tokenized in the blockchain.

US Treasurys are the most “immediate” growth vector

CoinShares expects US government debt-backed products to lead the next leg of expansion in 2026, citing global demand for dollar yield and the efficiency of crypto-based settlement rails.

CoinShares said investors tend to prefer holding Treasurys over stablecoins when yield is available with minimal incremental risk.

“We’ve observed stablecoins demonstrating significant global demand for tokenised dollars as both a reserve and transactional asset,” CoinShares wrote. “Yet, when investors, as opposed to transactors, have the option, they generally prefer to hold Treasurys over holding dollars directly.”

CoinShares also argued that RWA tokenization has already moved beyond a niche experiment by crypto enthusiasts.

The company said that as established financial firms issue these assets, it attracts material capital and draws engagement from regulators who increasingly view blockchain as credible infrastructure.

The company also added that efficiency improvements are no longer theoretical. CoinShares said that settlement, issuance and distribution are starting to happen directly onchain, rather than through legacy custodial processes.

CoinShares expects the shift to continue, though not without competitive tension. According to the company, multiple networks and settlement systems are vying for market share. As a result, it remains uncertain which platforms will emerge victorious and how liquidity will consolidate.

Related: Hua Xia state-linked Chinese bank tokenizes $600M in yuan bonds

Tokenized RWAs grew 229% in 2025

RWA.xyz data showed that excluding stablecoins, which have a market capitalization of over $300 billion, RWAs grew from $5.5 billion on Dec. 31, 2024, to $18.1 billion at the time of writing. This represents a 229% growth in nearly a year.

CoinShares CEO Jean-Marie Mognetti said digital assets are no longer operating outside the traditional economy. He said they are embedded within it.

“If 2025 was the year of the graceful return, 2026 looks positioned to be a year of consolidation into the real economy,” he said.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Global Markets Mixed as Start of Key Week

Dow Jones Newswires

By Dow Jones Newswires Staff

U.S. stock futures pointed to a flat to modestly higher open at the start of a key week, with the Federal Reserve widely expected to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point. With an uncertain rate path in the new year, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments will be closely monitored. U.S. weekly jobless claims and trade data for September are due Thursday. There are also central bank decisions from Australia on Tuesday, Canada on Wednesday and Switzerland on Thursday.

Elsewhere, Chinese government data earlier on Monday showed that its trade surplus topped $1 trillion this year, comfortably beating forecasts.

On the corporate front, Oracle reports earnings on Wednesday, as does Adobe, followed by Broadcom on Thursday.

U.S. Nasdaq stock futures were up 0.2% early in European business hours, those for the S&P 500 were up 0.1% and futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average were flat. Changes in futures don't necessarily predict movements after the opening bell.
In Europe, France's CAC 40 fell 0.3%, with cosmetics firm L'Oreal dropping 1.7% after announcing plans to acquire an additional 10% in Switzerland-based Galderma Group. Germany's DAX edged up 0.1% after a better-than-expected industrial production print showed output up 1.8% in October. Rheinmetall gained 2.8% after a new order from the German army. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 added 0.1%.
Stock markets in Asia were mixed; Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 0.2% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 1.2%. China's benchmark Shanghai Composite climbed 0.5%. Underpinning the country's soaring trade surplus, data showed shipments to the European Union rose 14.8% in November from less than 1% in October.

"The role of trade rerouting in offsetting the drag from U.S. tariffs still appears to be increasing," said Zichun Huang, an economist at Capital Economics.

The U.S. dollar eased ahead of the Fed's policy decision. "We expect Powell to emphasize that the hurdle for further cuts in early 2026 is high, signaling a near-term pause," Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note. The DXY dollar index against a basket of major currencies was last down 0.1% to 98.866.
Bitcoin edged higher as expectations for another interest-rate cut by the Fed supported risk appetite. It was recently trading up 1.6% to $91,700, according to LSEG data
U.S. Treasury yields edged up. "There is now the event risk of Wednesday's FOMC decision to navigate, where any signs of hawkishness could trigger a short-term hit to sentiment," said Pepperstone's Michael Brown in a note. However, Fed hawkishness should be viewed as a buying opportunity, the senior research strategist said. The 10-year Treasury yield edged up 0.4 basis point to 4.142%, according to Tradeweb data. The Treasury will auction $58 billion in three-year notes on Monday, $39 billion in 10-year notes on Tuesday and $22 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday.
Eurozone government bond yields were also up, with the 10-year German Bund yield rising to 2.828%, the highest level since March, according to LSEG data. Bund yields have crept higher lately as investors eye increasing government bond supply in 2026.
In commodities, oil prices were a touch lower; Brent crude fell 0.2% to $63.64 a barrel, while WTI fell 0.1% to $60 a barrel after closing on Friday at their highest level in more than two weeks. Gold prices slipped a touch but continued to be supported by a softer U.S. dollar. Futures in New York fell 0.1% to $4,237.90 a troy ounce, while spot gold eased 0.2% to $4,198.69 an ounce.

Write to Barcelona Editors at barcelonaeditors@dowjones.com

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Circle and Bybit deepen USDC partnership as stablecoin nears $80B

Cointelegraph

Circle, the publicly-listed issuer of one of the largest US dollar stablecoins globally, has entered into a strategic partnership with cryptocurrency exchange Bybit.

Bybit has entered a strategic partnership with an affiliate of Circle to expand liquidity and usability of its USDC stablecoin, according to a joint announcement on Monday.

“The partnership aims to expand USDC access across Bybit’s global ecosystem, strengthen liquidity of the world’s largest regulated stablecoin, and reinforce Bybit’s position as a regulatory-compliant platform committed to transparency and trust,” the companies said.

The partnership comes as USDC is gaining momentum, with its market capitalization surging to historic records and nearing $80 billion.

Bybit to deepen USDC integration across spot, derivatives and payment channels

“Bybit’s partnership with Circle allows us to deepen USDC integration across spot, derivatives, and payment channels within a transparent and compliant framework,” a spokesperson for Bybit told Cointelegraph.

The crypto exchange is working closely with Circle to enhance liquidity provisioning, strengthen fiat on-ramps and off-ramps, as well as expand crosschain support, the representative said, adding:

“This collaboration is just the beginning — especially in the EEA region, where Circle has a strong regulatory presence under MiCA. We see meaningful opportunities to expand USDC’s utility and deliver even more reliable settlement options for global users.”

Bybit’s spokesperson mentioned that the exchange started to integrate USDC several years ago, starting with spot and perpetual trading pairs and expanding it to savings products, institutional settlement, conversion tools and fiat payment channels.

“Today, USDC is already embedded across our ecosystem, and this new strategic partnership strengthens the underlying infrastructure with better liquidity, faster settlement and broader use cases,” Bybit said.

USDC market cap nearing $80 billion

The Bybit–Circle partnership caps a year of strong growth for USDC, with the stablecoin nearly doubling its market cap since the beginning of 2025.

Since Jan. 1, 2025, USDC market capitalization has surged by 77% from around $44 billion to $78 billion as of Dec. 7, according to data from CoinGecko.

The growth aligns with Circle increasingly pushing partnerships in traditional finance, including collaborations with the global exchange organization Deutsche Börse, payment giant Mastercard and more.

Circle, Transparency, Stablecoin, Partnerships, Companies, Bybit

By comparison, Tether, the world’s largest stablecoin by market capitalization, has seen its market cap rise about 36% since the start of the year, climbing from roughly $137 billion to $186 billion.

“Bybit supports multiple stablecoins and remains committed to giving users choice. Our collaboration with Circle is not about exclusivity,” a spokesperson for Bybit said, adding: “It reflects our focus on transparency and regulatory clarity as the industry matures.”

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Sonami Launches First Layer 2 Token on Solana to Ensure Transaction Efficiency and End Congestion Spikes

Chainwire

New York, United States, December 8th, 2025, Chainwire

$SNMI Pioneers Transaction Bundling Technology to Future-Proof Solana Ecosystem Against Peak Demand

Sonami ($SNMI), the first Layer 2 token built on the Solana blockchain, today announced its mission to dramatically enhance network reliability and transaction efficiency during periods of high demand. Sonami's solution leverages cutting-edge Layer 2 transaction bundling to minimize congestion and support the continued growth of high-frequency decentralized applications (dApps) on Solana.

The move addresses a critical scaling challenge: while Solana is celebrated for its speed, the network can experience congestion during moments of high activity, such as meme coin surges, NFT mints, or rapid-fire decentralized trading. These episodes, while signaling strong user interest, can stress the network, leading to delayed transactions and inconsistent user experiences.

Sonami aims to solve this by evolving the scaling architecture. Its Layer 2 network uses transaction bundling to intelligently group multiple user interactions into a single, optimized transaction that is ultimately processed on Solana’s Layer 1. This significantly reduces the network load, ensuring scalability without compromising the base chain’s speed or security.

"The expectation in Web3 is quickly shifting from 'fast most of the time' to 'fast all the time'," said Zakit Mobad, founder of Sonami Foundation. "Sonami is committed to being the performance multiplier that unlocks Solana’s full potential. By integrating a Layer 2 solution, we ensure developers can build more ambitious real-time apps and users can enjoy a seamless experience, even during periods of high market volatility."

A Stronger Ecosystem for Next-Gen dApps

The project confirms its focus on real-world use cases where split-second interactions matter most, including:

Real-time multiplayer gaming.
High-volume decentralized trading.
Microtransaction-powered utility applications.

Growth and Roadmap

The Sonami presale phase continues, signaling proactive development. The project is focusing on its upcoming Token Generation Event (TGE) and subsequent planned listings on both decentralized and centralized exchanges (DEX/CEX) after the presale concludes. This expansion ensures the ecosystem is resilient and ready for its next era of mainstream adoption.

About Sonami ($SNMI)

Sonami is a pioneering Layer 2 project built on the Solana blockchain, driven by a collective of seasoned blockchain developers and ecosystem architects. The team is united by a shared vision of solving scalability challenges at the protocol level. Sonami’s core mission is to enhance Solana's transaction efficiency and reliability, ensuring the network remains resilient, capable, and ready for its mainstream future.

Website | X | Instagram | Telegram

Contact

David Dylan

contact@sonami-so.io

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

4 Key US Economic Data to Shape Bitcoin Sentiment This Week

Beincrypto

Bitcoin traders are preparing for a pivotal week, as four major US economic releases, including the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and essential labor market data, stand to influence market sentiment and determine the crypto’s next move.

This convergence of monetary policy updates and employment figures finds Bitcoin trading near technical levels that may result in notable volatility, upward or downward.

FOMC Interest Rate Decision

The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee’s) interest rate decision, scheduled for Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET, is widely viewed as the most significant event for Bitcoin and risk assets this week.

Market pricing implies an 87% probability of a rate cut, based on CME Group data, reflecting broad expectations for accommodative monetary policy that often benefits cryptocurrencies.

Speculation is growing on social media about the scope of any rate change, with some saying that the market is already pricing a rate cut.

This assumption comes as the Bitcoin price is already showing strength, holding well above the $90,000 psychological level after the weekend’s whipsaw event.

Beyond the interest rate decision, the actual impact on Bitcoin may depend less on the decision and more on the Fed’s guidance for future policy.

Fed Chair Powell Press Conference

After the announcement, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. Powell’s commentary on future policy, inflation, and the economy is likely to provide important cues for crypto investors.

Historically, his statements have shaped positioning across markets, with Bitcoin being especially sensitive to changes in monetary policy direction.

Market analysts caution that unexpected hawkish comments could put pressure on Bitcoin, even if the rate decision itself appears positive for crypto.

Job Openings (JOLTS) and Initial Jobless Claims

Job openings data for October will be released on Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. ET, with economists anticipating 7.2 million openings, unchanged from last month.

This data measures labor market tightness and influences Federal Reserve policy. Strong job openings could discourage aggressive rate cuts, possibly limiting Bitcoin’s short-term gains.

Initial jobless claims for the week ending December 6 will be published Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Analysts expect 220,000 claims, up from the prior week’s 191,000, which was a near two-year low.

Large departures from this forecast could spark swift market moves as traders reassess economic strength and policy outlooks.

The jobs market’s status can cut both ways for Bitcoin. Strong figures can suggest economic health, which typically supports risk appetite, yet may lessen the push for monetary easing. Conversely, weaker data could prompt more rate cuts but signal risk-off sentiment in speculative markets.

Technical analysts are focusing on Bitcoin’s key levels in advance of these releases. The $86,000 mark is a crucial support; consistent moves below it may open a path toward $80,000. Conversely, reclaiming $92,000 could fuel momentum toward the headline $100,000 level.

Additional Federal Reserve officials, such as Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, are due to speak on Friday after the FOMC meeting. Their remarks could further clarify policy and influence how markets interpret recent decisions, extending the Bitcoin impact beyond Wednesday.

This compressed timeline of major economic updates sets the stage for amplified reactions. Bitcoin’s response will likely determine its path in December, impacting year-end investor positioning and testing the resilience of recent institutional interest.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Argentina weighs allowing domestic banks to offer crypto services

The Block

Argentina is considering allowing domestic banks to trade digital assets and offer crypto-related services, a move that could accelerate crypto adoption in the country.

The Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) is working on changes to its existing rule, which currently prohibits banking institutions from engaging in digital asset-related activities, local news outlet La Nacion reported, citing sources familiar with the matter.

While sources declined to disclose details or timeline, an unnamed major crypto exchange operating in Argentina told La Nacion that the changes could be approved as early as April 2026.

The Block has reached out to BCRA for comment.

Local experts and exchanges reportedly said that allowing local banks to access cryptocurrencies and offer digital asset services would ignite a new era of mass adoption in the region.

According to an October report from Chainalysis, Argentina saw $93.9 billion in crypto transaction volume between July 2022 and June 2025, the second-largest total in Latin America.

Meanwhile, Brazil — Latin America's leading country by crypto volume — recently expanded its financial regulations to cover the digital asset industry. The new rules mandate that crypto service providers obtain central bank authorization to operate.

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites