DAX Ends 0.07% Higher at 24046.01 — Data Talk

The FTSE 100 Index is down 21.92 points or 0.23% today to 9645.09

• Down for two consecutive trading days
• Down 65.78 points or 0.68% over the last two trading days
• Largest two day point and percentage decline since Wednesday, Nov 19, 2025
• Down five of the past six trading days
• Off 2.69% from its record close of 9911.42 hit Wednesday, Nov. 12, 2025
• Up 52.18% since the pre-Brexit vote level of 6338.10 hit Thursday, June 23, 2016
• Lowest closing value since Tuesday, Nov. 25, 2025
• Off 2.69% from its 52-week high of 9911.42 hit Wednesday, Nov. 12, 2025
• Up 25.60% from its 52-week low of 7679.48 hit Wednesday, April 9, 2025
• Rose 15.48% from 52 weeks ago
• Off 2.69% from its 2025 closing high of 9911.42 hit Wednesday, Nov 12, 2025
• Up 25.60% from its 2025 closing low of 7679.48 hit Wednesday, April 9, 2025
• Month-to-date it is down 0.78%
• Year-to-date it is up 1472.07 points or 18.01%

Source: Dow Jones Market Data, FactSet

By Mackenzie Tatananni

Carvana headed for a record closing high Monday following confirmation that the stock would join the S&P 500 later this month, and as investors rallied around what they see as a clear winner in the used-car space.

The steep gains came on the heels of announcement Friday that Carvana would join the benchmark index as part of its quarterly rebalancing. The changes will go into effect on Dec. 22.

The stock reaction Monday came as no surprise to BofA Securities, which identified Carvana's potential inclusion in the index as its "top potential catalyst" for the shares as far back as June. Analyst Michael McGovern reiterated a Buy rating and lifted his price target to $455 from $385.

Shares surged 12% to $449, putting them on pace for an all-time closing high and the largest same-day percentage increase since a 17% jump in July, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Shares have run up sharply in recent weeks, which McGovern sees as a direct result of positive third-party data on unit volumes, after the company's fourth-quarter guidance sparked concerns over a possible slowdown.

Carvana reported 156,000 units in the third quarter but guided to just 150,000 in the fourth quarter, while Wall Street is now eyeing 155,000 units, McGovern noted. He expects consumer demand to remain stable, in part fueled by share gains against CarMax, Carvana's next-closest rival in the used-car market.

Wall Street has evidently soured on CarMax, as shares have slumped 52% this year. McGovern, for one, expects Carvana to surpass CarMax in quarterly units sold "at some point in 2026."

Counting Monday's gains, shares have surged nearly 117% this year, outstripping a 16% gain for the S&P 500. CarMax, by comparison, has slumped 52%.

It's easy to be suspicious of the gains, considering Carvana was in the news earlier this year after famed short-seller Hindenburg Research dubbed it "a father-son accounting grift for the ages." The firm's allegations of accounting manipulation and lax underwriting caused shares to fall sharply over two trading sessions.

However, Carvana swiftly rejected the allegations, and many on Wall Street scrambled to defend the company. Even in the face of heightened scrutiny, Carvana continually has posted strong quarterly results, fueling further stock gains.

The higher price target reflects discounted cash flow, McGovern said on Monday. Although cyclicality remains a risk to Carvana's expected level of growth, the current trajectory of share gains versus a flat industry underscores its "idiosyncratic" potential.

He noted that Carvana "is also seeing tailwinds in its capital structure and potential for lower cost of capital, with recent credit rating upgrades and now S&P inclusion."

S&P Global raised its rating on Carvana's senior secured debt to BB- from B in August with a '3' recovery rating, signaling an expected "meaningful" recovery for debt holders if the company were to default.

The agency also raised its rating on Carvana's senior unsecured debt to 'B' from 'CCC+' with a '6' recovery rating, denoting an expectation of negligible recovery in the event of default, ranging from 0% to 10%.

Write to Mackenzie Tatananni at mackenzie.tatananni@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

The FTSE MIB was flat on Monday in a muted session as investors stayed cautious ahead of a widely expected 25 bp Fed rate cut this week.

A pause would shock markets, shifting attention to potential dissents among increasingly divided policymakers.

Focus also turned to the ECB, with markets now assigning a small chance of a hike next year, after ECB hawk Isabel Schnabel said the next move could be an increase rather than a cut.

Italian financials gained, led by MPS (+4.36%) after a report that Consob found no evidence of a secret pact among its top shareholders to seize control of Mediobanca (+1.7%).

UniCredit and Intesa Sanpaolo rose 0.2%, while BPM added 2% and Unipol 1%.

Leonardo gained 2.1% amid the lack of progress on a Ukraine–Russia peace plan.

On the downside, autos fell, with Ferrari down 3.5% after a Morgan Stanley downgrade and Stellantis down 1.3%.

Utilities also slipped, including Enel (-0.1%), Snam (-1.1%) and Terna (-0.6%).

The CAC 40 slipped 0.1% to close at 8,108 on Monday, extending last Friday’s modest losses as investors stayed cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday and weighed an uncertain 2026 outlook.

Markets are pricing a third rate cut, yet attention has shifted to the ECB after Isabel Schnabel said she is comfortable with bets that the central bank’s next move could be a rate increase.

L’Oréal retreated 2% despite strengthening its partnership with Swiss dermatology group Galderma by buying an additional 10% stake and lifting its total holding to 20%.

Other consumer names fell, with Hermès down 1.5%, Kering off 1.2%, Pernod Ricard down 2.2% and Essilor slipping 0.3%.

Financials led gains as Société Générale rose 1.8% and BNP Paribas added 1.4%, while aerospace stocks also advanced, led by Thales up 1.3%, Safran up 0.7% and Airbus up 0.7%.

By Nate Wolf

Shares of Air Products & Chemicals fell sharply Monday after the world's largest hydrogen supplier said it was in talks with ammonia company Yara International to form a production and distribution partnership.

The collaboration would encompass two ongoing projects. First, Yara would acquire the ammonia facilities at Air Products' low-carbon energy complex in Louisiana for an estimated $8 billion to $9 billion. In turn, Air Products would supply 80% of the hydrogen to Yara to support its ammonia production under a 25-year agreement.

The second prong of the agreement would be the NEOM Green Hydrogen Project in Saudi Arabia, which is expected to begin commercial production in 2027. Air Products and Yara plan to reach an agreement in which Yara would sell the ammonia not sold by Air Products on a commission basis.

Air Products stock dropped 7.5%, making it the worst performer in the S&P 500 on the day. Monday was the stock's largest single-day decline since Feb. 5, 2024, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

The two companies explained the partnership as a way to "meet increasing demand for low-emission ammonia in the coming years." Air Products produces hydrogen and ammonia at scale, while Yara is the world's largest trader and shipper of ammonia.

Investors likely want to see the details of the agreements, though, to understand the benefits each side will realize and the risks they will assume.

Norway-traded shares of Yara closed trading up 0.9% on Monday.

Write to Nate Wolf at nate.wolf@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

The STOXX 50 ended Monday near the flat line at 5,725 points, while the broader STOXX 600 edged down 0.1%, as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of a key week of global central bank decisions, including the Federal Reserve meeting.

The Fed is widely expected to deliver a 25bp rate cut, with market focus on updated FOMC projections amid ongoing uncertainty over its 2026 policy path.

In Europe, ECB's Isabel Schnabel indicated she is comfortable with market expectations that the central bank’s next move could be a rate hike.

On the corporate front, Unilever shares tumbled 6.2% after completing the long-awaited spinoff of the Magnum Ice Cream Company.

Ageas rose 0.6% after securing full ownership of AG Insurance, agreeing to acquire the remaining 25% stake from BNP Paribas for $1.9 billion.

TKMS climbed 2.9% despite issuing a muted earnings outlook for 2026, while UBS gained 1.8% following reports it may cut an additional 10,000 jobs by 2027.