Crypto companies: is the party over?

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Kraken rolls out tokenized stocks, Trump family profits \$1.3bn from crypto, EasyJet launches EasyBitcoin. But Saylor-style strategies falter, firms face valuation stress, leaving doubts over the durability of the crypto boom.

Block 1: Essential news

Kraken launches tokenized stocks in Europe: towards a new investment model?

Kraken is rolling out its xStocks service to European investors, a few weeks after obtaining its MiCA license from the Central Bank of Ireland. Launched in June, this solution allows investors to invest in more than 60 US stocks and ETFs in tokenized form, with one key advantage: 24-hour access and the ability to store them in a personal wallet. But beware: these assets do not confer voting rights and are not traditional shares. They offer exposure to the price, but without the classic legal attributes. For Kraken, this is another step towards decentralized finance applied to shares, with a strong message: "if you own a share, you should reap all the benefits—not your bank." Food for thought.

The Trump family rakes in $1.3bn thanks to cryptocurrencies

Donald Trump wanted to become the "crypto president"... and he's doing everything he can to make it happen. In just a few weeks, the Trump family has generated $1.3bn from its multiple cryptocurrency-related projects. This financial windfall has reignited accusations of conflicts of interest, even as the White House steps up its support for the sector. World Liberty Financial, WLFI stablecoin, crypto ETF, TRUMP memecoins, American Bitcoin mining company, shared treasury with Crypto.com... the list of projects is growing rapidly. According to Bloomberg, earnings from WLFI and related partnerships already total $670m, while the family now holds more than $5bn in digital assets. At this rate, crypto revenues are rivaling those of the iconic Trump golf clubs.

EasyJet enters the crypto market: introducing EasyBitcoin, the low-cost platform for buying BTC

After bargain airline tickets, here comes low-cost bitcoin. The EasyGroup, owner of EasyJet, unveils EasyBitcoin, a new subsidiary dedicated to the purchase and sale of cryptocurrencies, in partnership with Uphold. The goal: to break the fees of traditional platforms, while riding the crypto wave. "I'm only doing this because Trump's re-election has completely mainstreamed [cryptocurrency]," CEO Stelios Haji-Ioannou told Bloomberg. With a simple interface, ultra-competitive commissions, and a "mainstream" positioning, EasyBitcoin intends to apply the EasyJet formula to the BTC market.

24/7 markets: the SEC and CFTC want to model traditional finance on the crypto model

A small revolution could be in the works. The SEC and CFTC, the two US financial regulators, are considering opening the financial markets 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, similar to the crypto model. This idea is part of a strategic shift driven by Donald Trump, who is pushing for an unprecedented rapprochement between the two institutions. The goal is to modernize Wall Street in the era of global and decentralized markets. But that's not all. The SEC-CFTC duo also wants to relax the framework for prediction markets, perpetual contracts, and even decentralized finance (DeFi), which have been closely monitored until now. Behind this initiative is a regulatory recalibration designed to attract innovation and bring offshore crypto volumes back to U.S. soil. A new era is dawning.

Block 2: Crypto Analysis of the Week

Saylor's strategy breaks down

It all started with Strategy, Michael Saylor's pioneering company, which became the first bitcoin-listed "deposit bank." The idea was simple: raise funds on the stockmarket, buy BTC, and take advantage of the leverage between the rise in the token and the rise in the stock. For months, the mechanism seemed foolproof: Strategy's stock rose from $60 to over $500, buoyed by a wave of political support from Washington.

But for the past month, the house of cards has been faltering. Although the company's stock is still up 15% since January 1, it has fallen 18% since mid-August, reaching its lowest level since April. And with it, a whole host of companies that had copied the model. Some are now worth less than the cryptocurrencies they hold, a market anomaly that is making investors nervous. In other words, the most fragile players are at risk of being swept away.

Collateral damage

In Asia, Japan's Metaplanet, the continent's largest holder of bitcoins, has seen its stock plummet 68% since June. In London, Smarter Web Company lost 70% over the same period.

Some groups have even changed their names and repainted their logos in the orange colors of bitcoin to ride the wave. Even if it means abandoning their original business:

KindlyMD, a healthcare provider listed in New York, preferred to buy BTC. Its share price fell 68% in one month.

In France, Capital B, a former tech player that switched to buying tokens, lost 26%.

Others had only one goal: to go public to raise funds and buy crypto. Alt5 Sigma, a partner of the Trump family in the creation of a "crypto treasury," has already fallen 35% since the announcement of the operation.

The "danger zone" of balance sheets

At the heart of the model is an indicator created by Saylor: mNAV, the ratio between enterprise value (shares + debt – cash) and crypto assets. When this ratio falls below 1, the company is worth less than its crypto holdings. Simply put, mNAV measures the difference between a company's market value and the actual value of its bitcoin reserves.

In other words, mNAV is a bit like the "confidence premium" that the market grants to a company in relation to the real value of its bitcoins. If a company holds $1bn worth of bitcoins, but its market value is $2bn, this means that the market is willing to pay twice as much as the value of its bitcoins alone.Why? Because investors believe that this company will manage its bitcoins well, buy more, or that it has a model that justifies paying more. When mNAV is high, the company can easily raise funds, sell shares, and continue to buy bitcoins. It therefore has a real "competitive advantage" in the market. When the mNAV falls to 1 (or below), the market considers that the company is not worth more than its stack of bitcoins. No one wants to invest anymore, the company can no longer finance itself... and if it has to sell its bitcoins to survive, it fuels the market's decline.

This is already the case for some:

LM Funding America is worth $23.5m on the stockmarket, while its BTC portfolio is estimated at $34m.

Semler Scientific, in the healthcare sector, has an enterprise value of $500m, compared to $557m in bitcoins held.

Is the bubble still alive?

Paradoxically, despite the downturn, fundraising continues. Forward Industries announced $1.65bn in Solana cash, and its stock has soared 71% since the announcement. Eightco, a packaging specialist, has launched Worldcoin, triggering a 3,000% (!) surge in its stock price.

Since January, $73bn has been raised to buy bitcoin, and $38bn for ether, according to Architect Partners. But the mood is less euphoric. Bitcoin has fallen 9% from its peak of $124,000. After the euphoria comes doubt: will "crypto cash" be a sustainable model... or a financial mirage destined to collapse? Everything will depend, most certainly, on the evolution of the bitcoin price in the coming months.

Source: marketscreener

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