Cracker Barrel Sees Older Customers Sticking With Brand — Market Talk

WINNIPEG, Manitoba--Expect canola futures to fall back in the coming months, said analyst Jerry Klassen of Resilient Capital in Winnipeg.

Klassen pointed to the Statistics Canada production update and China as two reasons for the coming declines.

On Sept. 17, StatCan raised its estimate on the 2025/26 canola harvest to 20.03 million tonnes from the 19.94 million it projected in August. StatCan will issue one more production report in December.

"Everyone feels pretty confident with a 20-million-plus crop," Klassen said. "When that (December) survey comes out it's probably going to be 20.50 million tonnes, maybe closer to 21 million."

Canadian farmers combined 19.24 million tonnes in 2024/25, and the five-average is 18.26 million.

Klassen said the cool July weather aided what appears to be greater-than-expected yields with about a third of the canola harvested on the Canadian Prairies. He suggested this year's yield could be a new record, surpassing the 42.3 bushels per acre in 2016 according to StatCan. Average canola yields for 2025/26 were estimated at 41.2 bu./ac. in the Sept. 17 StatCan report.

As well, the United States soybean harvest will kick into high gear come October, with harvest pressure weighing on the soy complex. The latest estimate from the U.S. Department of Agriculture pegged the 2025/26 crop at 116.82 million tonnes, down from 118.84 million gleaned the previous year.

The absence of China from buying North American oilseeds continues to be felt, but Klassen said some of Canada's lost canola business to China could be made up for.

"What we do have is a biofuel policy of the U.S. that's going to enhance the Canadian crush," he said.

Klassen projected canola futures to break below C$600 per tonne, likely to C$580, especially after the domestic crush demand has been met.

He expects the U.S. and China to reach a trade deal that includes soybeans sometime within the next four months. Reports said Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping could speak by phone as early as Sept. 19.

"That's going to be the catalyst on Canadian negotiations on canola," Klassen said of China's stiff tariffs on canola seed, oil and meal.

Until then, he said farmers will sell their canola only when they need to.

Source: Commodity News Service Canada, news@marketsfarm.com

By Kelly Cloonan

Nucor cut its guidance for the current quarter, factoring in expectations for a sequential profit decline in each of its three operating segments.

The steel manufacturer said Wednesday it now expects earnings per share of $2.05 to $2.15 for the quarter ending Oct. 4.

It had previously guided for "nominally lower" earnings than the $2.60 a share it recorded in the second quarter. At the time, it factored in a sequential profit decline in its steel mills segment and similar results in its steel products and raw materials segments.

Nucor now expects earnings to fall across all three of its businesses compared to the second quarter.

The company expects results in its steel mills segment to be dented by lower volumes and margins, while its steel products business comes under pressure from higher average costs per ton on stable average realized pricing and volumes. Results in its raw materials segment, meanwhile, will likely be hurt by lower profitability in its scrap processing operations, it said.

The company plans to release its third-quarter earnings after market close on Oct. 27.

Nucor shares fell 5.4% to $135.12 in after-hours trading. Shares had gained 22% this year through Wednesday's close.

Write to Kelly Cloonan at kelly.cloonan@wsj.com

By Heather Haddon

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store's shares slumped Wednesday after it said it expects guest traffic to further fall over the next year.

The outlook became the latest cloud facing the Lebanon, Tenn.-based company since it got caught in a political firestorm over changes to its logo, restaurant design and brand.

For the current fiscal year, the company said it would generate $3.35 billion to $3.45 billion in revenue, which was weaker than analysts polled by FactSet were expecting. Traffic was projected to decline between 4% and 7%.

Shares fell around 8% to $45.47 in aftermarket trading.

Under Chief Executive Julie Felss Masino, the company has been updating the 56-year-old brand, seeking to brighten up its dining rooms and better curate its retail offerings to help attract younger guests. The brand released an updated logo last month, which no longer contained its "Old Timer" man sitting in a country-style chair.

Online commentators and some customers accused the company of sanitizing its image and taking the charm out of its restaurants. President Trump weighed in on social media, saying Cracker Barrel should bring back its traditional logo and capitalize on the attention it has received.

About a week after the logo release, the chain said it would reverse course and keep its "Old Timer" branding. Cracker Barrel last week said it would roll back plans to remodel its restaurants after hearing from customers who didn't like the modern design.

Masino on Wednesday thanked customers for sharing their opinions about the brand in recent weeks and said the company has listened to them. She said the company would place a bigger emphasis on improving kitchen operations and other areas that enhance customer experience.

"Many elements of our plan are working well and delivering results," she said. "There is much to be optimistic about, and our teams are focused on getting back to the momentum we created last fiscal year."

Cracker Barrel's earnings report Wednesday doesn't reflect sales during the logo backlash or the weeks since. The company's sales and foot traffic have fallen since the logo change controversy flared up around Aug. 20, according to Bloomberg Second Measure and Placer.ai analyzed by research firm Gordon Haskett.

Investors have wondered what effect suspending the remodels would have on the company's financial guidance and broader investment plans.

For its fourth quarter ended Aug. 1, same-store sales at restaurants rose by 5.4%. Retail same-store sales, meanwhile, fell 0.8% during the period. Both measures fared better than analysts polled by FactSet had expected.

Still, the family-dining chain's profit fell to $6.8 million, or 30 cents a share, from $18.1 million, or 81 cents a share, a year earlier.

Adjusted earnings were 74 cents a share, below analysts' expectations of 77 cents a share.

Cracker Barrel posted $868 million in revenue. Analysts were expecting revenue of $855 million.

The company said it expects to close 14 of its Maple Street Biscuit restaurants during the year. It also expects to make $135 million to $150 million in capital expenditures in the current fiscal year. The company also announced a new share repurchasing program.

Write to Heather Haddon at heather.haddon@wsj.com

By Evie Liu

Darden Restaurants, the operator of Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse, has been a winner in the restaurant industry. The company is set to report earnings for the first quarter of the 2026 fiscal year on Thursday before the market opens.

For the three months ended in August, analysts polled by FactSet expect Darden to post $3.04 billion in sales, marking 10% growth from a year ago. Earnings are expected to come at $2 per share, up from $1.75 in the same period last year.

Darden shares have gained 31% over the past 12 months, beating most restaurant peers and outperforming the S&P 500. The restaurant chains under Darden have defied consumer weakness to post continuous growth in recent quarters.

In the latest quarter ended in May, total sales increased 10.6% from a year ago to $3.3 billion, driven by 4.6% growth in same-restaurant sales, new restaurant openings, and the acquisition of 103 Chuy's Tex Mex restaurants.

Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse, two flagship chains owned by Darden, both saw same-store sales increase 6.9% and 6.7%, respectively, in the May quarter. Excluding impact from the Chuy's transaction, adjusted diluted net earnings increased 12.5% from a year ago to $2.98 per share.

As inflation squeezes consumers' wallets, many people are dining out less, especially at fast-food chains with aggressive price hikes. Instead, diners are frequenting places that offer great value for what they pay. A group of casual dining chains — from Chili's to Texas Roadhouse to Olive Garden — have been doing well.

Darden has been "very prudent" in keeping price changes below inflation and providing great service experience to guests, said CEO Rick Cardenas on the company's earnings call in June. "Consumers want to go out and spend their hard-earned money, and we think we're taking some wallet share from fast food and fast casual," he said.

Olive Garden also partnered with up with Uber Direct for the first time, rolling out nationwide delivery through the platform in May. Investors will watch for any comment from management about delivery sales in the August quarter. Longhorn, meanwhile, has been less hurt by consumer weakness, as higher-income consumers continue to visit and spend more.

For fiscal 2026, management expects sales to grow 7% to 8%. Same-restaurant sales are expected to increase 2% to 3.5%, and the company plans to open 60 to 65 new restaurants. The company expects full-year diluted net earnings of $10.50 to $10.70 per share, compared with $8.88 in fiscal 2025.

The Trump administration's trade war could make imported produce more expensive. About 80% of the ingredients used at Darden Restaurants are from domestic sources, CFO Rajesh Vennam said on the last earnings call. The firm is working to mitigate the risk through better inventory management or alternate sourcing methods, he told analysts.

Write to Evie Liu at evie.liu@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

Source: CME Group 
 
For previous business day 
PREV TOTAL subject to revisions. Source: CME Group 
 
                      Prev                         Net               Total 
Platinum             Total  Received Withdrawn  Change Adjustment    Today 
ASAHI DEPOSITORY LLC 
Registered               0         0        0       0         0          0 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                    0         0        0       0         0          0 
 
BRINK'S, INC. 
Registered          69,949         0        0       0         0     69,949 
Eligible            70,842         0        0       0         0     70,842 
Total              140,792         0        0       0         0    140,792 
 
CNT DEPOSITORY, INC. 
Registered           1,246         0        0       0         0      1,246 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                1,246         0        0       0         0      1,246 
 
DELAWARE DEPOSITORY 
Registered           1,584         0        0       0         0      1,584 
Eligible            18,711         0        0       0         0     18,711 
Total               20,295         0        0       0         0     20,295 
 
HSBC BANK, USA 
Registered           1,295         0        0       0         0      1,295 
Eligible             9,282         0        0       0         0      9,282 
Total               10,577         0        0       0         0     10,577 
 
INTERNATIONAL DEPOSITORY SERVICES OF DELAWARE 
Registered           3,394         0        0       0         0      3,394 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                3,394         0        0       0         0      3,394 
 
JP MORGAN CHASE BANK NA 
Registered         121,712         0        0       0         0    121,712 
Eligible             1,144         0        0       0         0      1,144 
Total              122,856         0        0       0         0    122,856 
 
LOOMIS INTERNATIONAL (US) LLC 
Registered          72,224         0        0       0         0     72,224 
Eligible           110,596         0        0       0         0    110,596 
Total              182,820         0        0       0         0    182,820 
 
MALCA-AMIT USA, LLC 
Registered             395         0        0       0         0        395 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                  395         0        0       0         0        395 
 
MANFRA, TORDELLA & BROOKES, LLC 
Registered          22,544         0        0       0         0     22,544 
Eligible            17,738    10,166        0  10,166         0     27,904 
Total               40,283    10,166        0  10,166         0     50,448 
 
STONEX PRECIOUS METALS LLC 
Registered           7,457         0        0       0         0      7,457 
Eligible                16         0        0       0         0         16 
Total                7,473         0        0       0         0      7,473 
 
COMBINED TOTALS 
Registered         301,801         0        0       0         0    301,801 
Eligible           228,329    10,166        0  10,166         0    238,495 
Total              530,130    10,166        0  10,166         0    540,296 
 
                      Prev                         Net               Total 
Palladium            Total  Received Withdrawn  Change Adjustment    Today 
ASAHI DEPOSITORY LLC 
Registered               0         0        0       0         0          0 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                    0         0        0       0         0          0 
 
BRINK'S, INC. 
Registered           5,242         0        0       0         0      5,242 
Eligible            13,449         0        0       0         0     13,449 
Total               18,692         0        0       0         0     18,692 
 
CNT DEPOSITORY, INC. 
Registered              97         0        0       0         0         97 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                   97         0        0       0         0         97 
 
DELAWARE DEPOSITORY 
Registered             788         0        0       0         0        788 
Eligible             3,208         0        0       0         0      3,208 
Total                3,996         0        0       0         0      3,996 
 
HSBC BANK, USA 
Registered             586         0        0       0         0        586 
Eligible             2,023         0        0       0         0      2,023 
Total                2,609         0        0       0         0      2,609 
 
INTERNATIONAL DEPOSITORY SERVICES OF DELAWARE 
Registered               0         0        0       0         0          0 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                    0         0        0       0         0          0 
 
JP MORGAN CHASE BANK NA 
Registered          12,746         0        0       0         0     12,746 
Eligible            15,668         0        0       0         0     15,668 
Total               28,414         0        0       0         0     28,414 
 
LOOMIS INTERNATIONAL (US) LLC 
Registered          26,760         0        0       0         0     26,760 
Eligible            31,211         0        0       0         0     31,211 
Total               57,972         0        0       0         0     57,972 
 
MALCA-AMIT USA, LLC 
Registered               0         0        0       0         0          0 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                    0         0        0       0         0          0 
 
MANFRA, TORDELLA & BROOKES, LLC 
Registered          32,691         0        0       0         0     32,691 
Eligible             6,029         0        0       0         0      6,029 
Total               38,720         0        0       0         0     38,720 
 
STONEX PRECIOUS METALS LLC 
Registered               0         0        0       0         0          0 
Eligible                 0         0        0       0         0          0 
Total                    0         0        0       0         0          0 
 
COMBINED TOTALS 
Registered          78,910         0        0       0         0     78,910 
Eligible            71,589         0        0       0         0     71,589 
Total              150,500         0        0       0         0    150,500 
 
Write to Linda Rice at csstat@dowjones.com 
 

By Anthony Harrup

MEXICO CITY--The Mexican government said Wednesday it issued $13.8 billion in debt in U.S. dollars and euros as part of a series of transactions aimed at capitalizing and shoring up the finances of state oil company Petróleos Mexicanos.

Pemex this week completed a $12 billion bond buyback of which $9.9 billion were notes due between 2026 and 2029, the Finance Ministry said. Amortizations of debt due this year and other short-term liabilities are also planned, the ministry added.

Mexico issued 5 billion euros in bonds at four, eight and 12 years, paying interest of 3.5%, 4.5% and 5.125%, respectively. It also issued $8 billion in dollar bonds at five, seven and 10 years, with interest of 4.75%, 5.375% and 5.625%, respectively. Overall demand in both markets was equivalent to $50.6 billion.

Pemex's foreign currency debt will be reduced by the same amount, the ministry added.

The transactions were in addition to the precapitalized notes and an investment fund set up for Pemex at development banks earlier this year, and "complete the capitalization and refinancing of the company," the ministry added.

The initiatives "continue the positive trajectory of debt reduction at the oil company that will, with the latest $14 billion 2026 budgetary line-item commitment, adequately soften the near-term amortization wall," Declan Hanlon of Santander US Capital Markets said in a note.

Pemex reported financial debt of $98.8 billion at the end of June.

Write to Anthony Harrup at anthony.harrup@wsj.com