Copper Is 2025's Hottest Commodity

By Bob Tita and Ryan Felton

Rising costs for screws are rippling through manufacturing supply chains.

President Trump's tariffs implemented this month on steel and aluminum imports have scrambled the supply chains of companies that make everything from car parts to appliances and football helmets to lawn mowers.

Unlike a similar Trump levy in 2018, the latest ones cover a wider range of imports, including the screws, nails and bolts that serve as the connective tissue in manufacturing.

That has set off a hunt to find domestic supplies of some of manufacturing's smallest components. Tariffs on imported steel and aluminum are already driving up the costs of foreign and domestic metal used to make those components. Manufacturing executives said the U.S. doesn't have the plants to churn out the amount of steel wire or screws and other fasteners needed to displace imports.

"The production capacity we need doesn't exist here in the U.S.," said Gene Simpson, president of Illinois-based fastener maker Semblex. "It's a select group of suppliers."

And companies that use screws and other metal parts covered by tariffs say their customers won't tolerate price increases. Some construction contractors may delay projects until they get a handle on how to blunt the effects of import duties.

About $178 billion of steel and aluminum products imported by the U.S. last year are now subject to a 25% tariff, according to Jason Miller, a supply-chain management professor at Michigan State University. That is more than three times greater than the import products affected by the original 2018 tariffs.

"It's a shockingly large number of parts," said Miller. "The scope of the metal tariffs is so much broader than what you would have first thought."

Closing a loophole

Trump has argued that tariffs induce companies to manufacture more in the U.S. by driving up the cost of imports.

The revised steel and aluminum tariffs are aimed at closing loopholes for finished products that U.S. officials said undermined the effectiveness of the 2018 levies. The administration eliminated tariff exemptions and duty-free quotas on steel and aluminum used by countries that have been key U.S. trading partners. American companies also can no longer petition the Commerce Department for tariff exemptions on specific products that aren't sufficiently available in the U.S.

Broadening the tariff to more products means steel screws imported from China carry an additional 25% tax that is layered on top of a 45% duty in effect. The enlarged tariff pushes up the cost of a 10-cent screw to 17 cents for an importer, companies said.

Rob Crowder, president of Michigan-based Great Products, said he switched most of his screw purchases to Taiwan after Trump in late 2018 levied tariffs on fasteners and other products from China.

Last year Great Products, which builds parts for appliances, imported about three million screws. It made about 14 million screws itself, mostly specialized screws for appliance customers.

Crowder said he will look to increase his company's screw production and try to seek out domestic suppliers for the screws he has been importing. In the past, orders from Great Products haven't been large enough for U.S. screw makers to match the prices offered in Asia, he said.

At AlphaUSA, about half the of the materials that the Michigan-based auto-parts manufacturer purchases are fasteners. Many of them are made outside the U.S., particularly in Canada, which is now subject to the 25% duty after being exempted for years.

President Chuck Dardas said he expects it will take as long as six months to find U.S. suppliers to replace foreign producers of fasteners. He said the company's customers often request specialized parts for assembly lines.

"Our customers are very religious about their quality standards," he said. "It's not like going to an O'Reilly Auto Parts store and saying, 'I want to buy these now.'" Dardas added that many U.S. companies that make fasteners purchase the steel for them from Canada as well.

Price-sensitive customers

The situation for the auto industry became more complicated Wednesday, when Trump announced an additional 25% levy on imports of car and auto parts. The effects of the tariffs are expected to be felt quickly, as many suppliers have said they are unable to absorb added costs from new levies.

Jim Derry, chief executive of Illinois-based Field Fastener, said his company has been receiving letters from customers who are warning that they won't accept price increases.

"There's just no way we're going to sell the products without increasing the costs," he said. "People are just going to have to pay more for the product."

Simpson's firm Semblex produces fasteners for automobiles, industrial lighting, farm equipment and heavy-duty commercial trucks. To make those fasteners, the company uses specialty steel wire. It imports more than half of the wire it uses, mostly from Canada.

As tariffs make imports more expensive, American steel wire producers are raising their prices at the same time. Simpson said cost increases for steel are difficult to quickly pass along to customers, especially in the automotive industry where prices are often locked in monthslong contracts.

Annie Mecias-Murphy, president of commercial construction company JA&M Developing in Florida, said costs for steel building materials, including steel cable and concrete reinforcing bars, have increased by 5% to 8% on average in recent months. She said the cost of nails has climbed by 4%.

Without a slowdown in material cost increases and lower interest rates, real-estate developers are likely to start delaying construction projects or canceling them later in the year, said Anirban Basu, chief economist for the trade group Associated Builders and Contractors.

"They're saying: 'If I don't move forward with my project, I don't have to buy any steel. I don't have to buy nails,'" he said.

Write to Bob Tita at robert.tita@wsj.com and Ryan Felton at ryan.felton@wsj.com

Rajani Tandale

Gold has always been a symbol of prosperity, tradition, and wealth in India. From Diwali to weddings, the purchase of gold is considered auspicious and plays a significant role in celebrations. However, as we approach another festive season, there’s a looming question: will the current high gold prices dampen the spirit of buyers?

In recent months, gold prices have surged to record highs, reaching over Rs 90,000 for 10 grammes. This has left many potential buyers hesitant, impacting purchases during critical seasons such as Dhanteras and Diwali. While higher prices are certainly a concern, it’s important to consider gold's role as an asset, its historical trends, and the overall sentiment surrounding festive buying.

The price surge

The yellow metal's bull run has been driven by inflationary pressures, geopolitical tensions, and fluctuations in global currencies. For families looking to purchase traditional gold jewellery or coins, today’s prices can be a deterrent.

Despite this, India’s gold demand continues to be high, both because of its appeal as an investment and cultural practices. Nonetheless, the rising prices have created a shift in preferences — many consumers are opting for more affordable alternatives like silver or gold ETFs , rather than traditional gold jewellery.

Gold vs equity

Historically, gold has been known as a safe asset, particularly during periods of uncertainty. Recent research on emerging markets, including India, shows that gold has outperformed many equity indices in terms of both returns and risk-reward ratios over long periods.

India’s performance has been noteworthy, as the country's equity index outperformed returns on gold across all timeframes (10, 15, 20, and 25 years). However, gold's risk-reward ratio was better in longer timeframes (20 and 25 years), suggesting that despite high prices in the short term, gold remains a solid investment option.

Also read: Gold nears Rs 90,000: Time to buy, hold, or book profits?

Gold ETFs: a good alternative

Despite the price of gold, gold ETFs have seen significant growth. These allow investors to to hold gold without the need to buy physical gold, bypassing high transaction costs and making charges.

In October 2024, gold ETFs saw net inflows of ₹1,961 crore, a 59 percent increase from ₹1,233 crore in September 2024.

By February 2025, inflows surged to ₹3,846 crore, pushing the AUM to ₹55,677 crore, an eight-fold increase from five years prior.

The World Gold Council also reports that Indian gold ETF holdings nearly doubled over four years, reaching a record 54.5 tonnes by October 2024, further underscoring the surge in investor interest despite the high prices.

Impact of high gold prices on imports

Rising gold prices have also impacted gold imports, which typically surge before major festivals like Diwali. Imports dropped 25 percent in 2024, indicating that many buyers may be waiting for prices to stabilise.

However, despite the slowdown in physical purchases, the demand for gold as an investment remains robust, driven by factors like global geopolitical tensions and the desire for wealth preservation.

Also read: Gold price surges come and go, stick to a 10-15% allocation

The psychological impact of high gold prices

While gold’s performance suggests it remains a strong investment, the psychological impact of high prices cannot be ignored. Sharp price increases lead many buyers to feel that gold is now out of their reach. During Dhanteras in 2024, gold sales dropped 15 percent, with many consumers turning to silver instead, which provided a more affordable option.

Retailers have reported increased sales of silver coins and jewellery, which have become a more attractive alternative.

Will the festive spirit be dampened?

Though gold jewellery sales might decline, gold ETFs and silver are emerging as viable alternatives for buyers. As the festive season unfolds, we are likely to see a shift in purchase behaviour, with consumers opting for such affordable products.

Ultimately, despite the surge in prices, gold remains an integral part of India’s festive culture, and while it may not be as accessible for everyone, it continues to hold value as a symbol of prosperity and a secure investment option for the long term.

(The author is the Head of Department, Mutual Funds, at 1Finance)(Disclaimer: The views expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions)

By Paul Vieira

OTTAWA--Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said he and President Trump agreed that negotiations on a new economic and security partnership between the two countries should begin immediately after Canada's April 28 election.

In the meantime, Carney warned Trump that the Canadian government would impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods following the planned reveal on April 2 of new U.S. duties on a range of global imports--among them, Canadian-made vehicles and auto parts.

Carney said Trump provided no indication in their conversation Friday that he would lift or ease 25% tariffs already in place on Canadian steel and aluminum, or the planned 25% duties on Canadian-made auto-sector products and other goods.

Canada's Prime Minister's Office released a summary of the call between the two leaders, about 90 minutes after Trump said in a Truth Social post that the two men had an "extremely productive" conversation. Unlike past posts from Trump when Justin Trudeau was prime minister, the U.S. president referred to Carney as prime minister, not governor, and there was no mention of Canada becoming the 51st state.

"The president respected Canada's sovereignty today, both in his private and public comments," said Carney, who had previously said that ceasing talk of Canada as a 51st state was a precondition of talks between the neighbors.

In Oval Office, Trump said he and Carney "had a very good talk," and "I think things are going to work out very well between Canada and the United States."

Trump has repeatedly threatened Canada with hefty, broad-based tariffs, of up to 25%, on all Canadian imports. The trade-policy uncertainty has compelled Canadian companies to freeze hiring and investment plans, while households suggest increased concern about job security and are adjusting their spending accordingly. Most economists expect a recession for Canada, beginning in the second quarter.

On Thursday, after Trump's announced 25% tariffs on Canadian cars and auto parts, Carney warned the decades-old relationship between Canada and U.S., highlighted by deep supply-chain integration cooperation, was over.

"It is clear that the U.S. is no longer a reliable partner," Carney said. "It may be that through comprehensive negotiations, we can restore some element of trust, but there will be no going back."

Carney said Friday he was optimistic that Ottawa and Washington can make "major progress" once talks begin on a new bilateral economic-and-security pact. "But this is different from the world of the 1990s," he said.

"The key here is that it's not a process for increasing the integration between the two nations," Carney said. "This is different. So the momentum has changed."

"We can create links with other economies around the world, and we intend to do it," he added.

Vice-President JD Vance, during a stop in Greenland, said "there is no way that Canada can win a trade war with the U.S." Vance said Trump's goal is to create a level-playing field between the U.S. and Canada.

Carney said that Canada would "only agree to things that are in Canada's interests." For instance, Carney said that, as prime minister, he would refuse to make changes to the country's rules designed to protect Canadian dairy farmers--rules that Trump has criticized.

Canada's summary of the call between Carney and Trump indicated talks between Canadian Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc and U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick would "intensify to address immediate concerns."

Carney said this week that Canada could consider export taxes on key commodities that the U.S. buys, such as energy and agriculture products, should the trade conflict escalate.

Carney is seeking a mandate from voters in an election set for April 28, and polls indicate that either the Liberals hold a lead or are in a tight race with the Conservative Party. Carney told Trump that he would like to be Canada's representative in any talks on a revised economic-and-security pact.

Write to Paul Vieira at paul.vieira@wsj.com

By Paul Vieira

OTTAWA--Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said he and President Trump agreed that negotiations on a new economic and security partnership between the two countries should begin immediately after Canada's April 28 election.

In the meantime, Carney warned Trump that the Canadian government would impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods following the planned reveal on April 2 of new U.S. duties on a range of global imports--among them, Canadian-made vehicles and auto parts.

Carney said Trump provided no indication in their conversation Friday that he would lift or ease 25% tariffs already in place on Canadian steel and aluminum, or the planned 25% duties on Canadian-made auto-sector products and other goods.

Canada's Prime Minister's Office released a summary of the call between the two leaders, about 90 minutes after Trump said in a Truth Social post that the two men had an "extremely productive" conversation. Unlike past posts from Trump when Justin Trudeau was prime minister, the U.S. president referred to Carney as prime minister, not governor, and there was no mention of Canada becoming the 51st state.

"The president respected Canada's sovereignty today, both in his private and public comments," said Carney, who had previously said that ceasing talk of Canada as a 51st state was a precondition of talks between the neighbors.

Trump has repeatedly threatened Canada with hefty, broad-based tariffs, of up to 25%, on all Canadian imports. The trade-policy uncertainty has compelled Canadian companies to freeze hiring and investment plans, while households suggest increased concern about job security and are adjusting their spending accordingly. Most economists expect a recession for Canada, beginning in the second quarter.

On Thursday, after Trump's announced 25% tariffs on Canadian cars and auto parts, Carney warned the decades-old relationship between Canada and U.S., highlighted by deep supply-chain integration cooperation, was over.

"It is clear that the U.S. is no longer a reliable partner," Carney said. "It may be that through comprehensive negotiations, we can restore some element of trust, but there will be no going back."

Carney said Friday he was optimistic that Ottawa and Washington can make "major progress" once talks begin on a new bilateral economic-and-security pact. "But this is different from the world of the 1990s," he said.

"The key here is that it's not a process for increasing the integration between the two nations," Carney said. "This is different. So the momentum has changed."

"We can create links with other economies around the world, and we intend to do it," he added.

Vice-President JD Vance, during a stop in Greenland, said "there is no way that Canada can win a trade war with the U.S." Vance said Trump's goal is to create a level-playing field between the U.S. and Canada.

Carney said that Canada would "only agree to things that are in Canada's interests." For instance, Carney said that, as prime minister, he would refuse to make changes to the country's rules designed to protect Canadian dairy farmers--rules that Trump has criticized.

Canada's summary of the call between Carney and Trump indicated talks between Canadian Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc and U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick would "intensify to address immediate concerns."

Carney said this week that Canada could consider export taxes on key commodities that the U.S. buys, such as energy and agriculture products, should the trade conflict escalate.

Carney is seeking a mandate from voters in an election set for April 28, and polls indicate that either the Liberals hold a lead or are in a tight race with the Conservative Party. Carney told Trump that he would like to be Canada's representative in any talks on a revised economic-and-security pact.

Write to Paul Vieira at paul.vieira@wsj.com

WINNIPEG, Manitoba--The ICE Futures canola market was stronger on Friday, nearing major chart resistance as the market continued to correct off nearby lows.

The May contract gained C$41.70 per tonne over the week, finishing Friday's session just shy of a gap on the charts between C$615 and C$617 per tonne formed when news of Chinese tariffs on canola oil and meal sparked a selloff earlier in the month.

End user bargain hunting contributed to the gains, as canola remains attractively priced on the global market.

Chicago soyoil, European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil futures were all stronger.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke with U.S.

President Donald Trump Friday morning, with both leaders describing the call as productive. However, U.S. tariffs and Canadian retaliatory measures are still slated to come into effect next week, with more negotiations promised for after the federal election.

There were 48,008 contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 43,171 contracts changed hands.

Spreading accounted for 32,420 of the contracts traded.

Settlement prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

 
           Price      Change 
May       613.40    up 14.00 
Jul       618.30    up 12.90 
Nov       612.20    up 11.50 
Jan       620.60    up 11.80 

Spread trade prices are in Canadian dollars and the volume represents the number of spreads:

 
Months    Prices                            Volume 
May/Jul   4.50 under to 7.50 under           8,357 
May/Nov   1.20 over to 4.00 under            1,162 
May/Jan   7.20 under to 8.90 under               5 
Jul/Nov   7.10 over to 2.90 over             3,894 
Jul/Jan   2.30 under to 5.80 under             383 
Nov/Jan   7.90 under to 9.10 under           2,070 
Jan/Mar   5.10 under to 6.70 under             289 
Mar/May   3.10 under to 3.90 under              49 
May/Jul   2.00 under                             1 
 

Source: Commodity News Service Canada, news@marketsfarm.com

Brent crude oil futures dipped 0.5% to settle at $73.6 per barrel on Friday, , due to concerns that the ongoing trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and key trading partners, could spark a global recession.

Despite this, oil prices recorded their third consecutive weekly gain, supported by U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and Iran.

The U.S. crude inventory data revealed a 3.3 million barrel decline, signaling continued strong demand.

President Trump's tariffs on Venezuelan oil are expected to worsen the nation’s production decline, while sanctions on Iran and the pressure on Venezuela are tightening global supply.

The market is closely monitoring these geopolitical risks and their impact on oil prices.