Coinbase mounts a cautious comeback in India, two years after exit

After its sharp decline in October and November, Ethereum has stabilized, finally, and the chart’s structure is starting to resemble the early phases of a trend reversal rather than a straightforward relief bounce. With increasing momentum, the price is moving toward the 20-day moving average after regaining the $3,100 mark.

Breaking down whales' positions

The whale positioning occurring off the chart, however, is the most remarkable development. Unanimously, some of the ecosystem’s most intelligent, well-behaved whales are long on ETH and getting bigger. BitcoinOG, a trader with $105 million in total PNL, is holding 54,277 ETH, or about $169.48 million. "Anti-CZ" whale is long 62,156 ETH, a position worth roughly $194 million, and has $58.8 million in total PNL. Another steadily profitable entity with $16.3 million in PNL, pension-usdt.eth, has taken a long for 20,000 ETH, or about $62.5 million. Chart by TradingView">

According to the short-term structure, ETH is grinding upward from its base of $2,800, forming higher lows and stabilizing above earlier breakdown levels. The 50-day and 100-day moving averages continue to be strong points of resistance, but the decline’s slope is becoming less steep. A run toward $3,800, and eventually the psychological $4,000 barrier, are possible if ETH can break through the $3,350-$3,450 range.

Ethereum's potential target

This is the point at which whale positioning becomes important: significant accumulation at these levels indicates that they may eventually reclaim the $3,500-$4,000 range, which is the threshold required to restart a macro uptrend. The path to $5,000 becomes feasible if the price breaks through — not because of hype but because the market will finally unite behind well-funded, highly accurate players.

As whale conviction permeates broader market behavior, investors should expect increased volatility, stronger upside attempts and a change in sentiment. Although Ethereum has not reached $5,000 yet, the foundation for that run is currently being established.

Japan, the world’s second-largest economy, saw its 20-year government bond yield rise to 2.947%, the highest since 1998. With debt piling up and borrowing costs climbing rapidly, Japan may be forced to bring hundreds of billions of dollars back home. If that happens, U.S. bonds, Tether, and even Bitcoin could be affected.

Experts predict the Bitcoin price could drop 5–8% if Japanese bond yields stay above 2.90%.

Japan’s Debt Trap Is Reaching Its Breaking Point

Japan carries one of the heaviest debt loads on Earth, 263% of its GDP, nearly $10.2 trillion in total. 

For decades, they managed this only because interest rates were near zero. But now, with inflation staying above 2% and the Bank of Japan lifting short-term rates to 0.5%, the cost of borrowing is exploding.

At these new yield levels, Japan’s interest bill could jump from $162 billion to $280 billion over the next decade. That means nearly 38% of government income would go on paying interest. 

No big country has ever handled debt this big without facing serious problems.

Why This Forces Japan Toward Selling U.S. Treasuries

Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt, holding over $1.13 trillion in Treasuries. But rising Japanese bond yields now make U.S. bonds unprofitable after currency risk. This means Japanese investors will start coming back home.

Economic models predict that up to $500 billion could leave global markets in the next 18 months, pushing U.S. borrowing costs higher even without a Fed rate hike.

Therefore, Japan’s growing debt problem isn’t just Japan’s problem anymore. It could impact global markets.

How Bitcoin and Tether Are at Risk?

For years, people borrowed cheap money in Japan, about $1.2 trillion, and used it to buy things like stocks, crypto, and other investments. Now, if Japan sells U.S. bonds, others may follow.

If U.S. bond prices drop, Tether, which holds a lot of Treasuries, will come under pressure. And if Tether falls, Bitcoin usually falls too.

We’ve seen this before, when in July 2024, a BOJ rate hike caused an 18% Bitcoin drop to $53,000, causing nearly $3 billion in value to be wiped out from the crypto market 

Even recently, when BOJ just hinted at a rate hike, Bitcoin fell from $92,000 to $83,832.

Right now, if Japanese yields remain above 2.90%, Bitcoin could move down toward the $87,000 support. However, Trump’s pro-crypto stance and ETF inflows provide buffers, potentially limiting losses to 5-8%.

As of now, Bitcoin is trading near $91,728, about 8% below its earlier highs, with the total crypto market cap at $3.1 trillion.

Bitcoin is trading at a pivotal level that analysts say could determine whether the market holds its broader uptrend or slips back toward spring lows.

Key Takeaways:

• Bitcoin is sitting on a crucial Fibonacci support level, with a breakdown risking a drop toward the April lows near $76,000.
• A weekend leverage flush pushed BTC below $88,000 before a sharp rebound.
• Traders now await the Fed meeting and key US economic data.

In , crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades said the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement zone is the line bulls must defend, warning that a breakdown could send BTC back to April levels near $76,000.

“It’s also pretty much the last major support before testing the April lows again, which would break this high time frame market structure,” he said.Bitcoin Dips Below $88K in Weekend Leverage Flush, Analyst Says

Over the weekend, Bitcoin briefly dipped below $88,000 during another round of leverage washouts before rebounding above $91,500.

Analyst “Bull Theory” described the move as typical low-liquidity weekend manipulation aimed at flushing both longs and shorts.

The market now turns its attention to this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where a 0.25% rate cut is widely expected.

BREAKING: Bitcoin dumped $2,000 from $89.7k to $87.7k and liquidated $171 million worth of longs.But then it pumped $3,500 from $87.7k to $91.2k and liquidated $75 million worth of shorts. All this happened in the last 4 hours.This is another example of manipulation on the… — Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio)

Still, crypto markets have cooled since the October cut, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a data-dependent path rather than a predictable easing cycle.

Markus Thielen of 10x Research expect a similar tone this week, cautious and potentially hawkish, keeping pressure on risk assets.

With ETF inflows softening and trading volumes thinning into December, Thielen said upside participation remains limited, while volatility compression leaves BTC more vulnerable to downside moves in the near term.

“Bulls will point to the Treasury General Account rebuild, the end of Quantitative Tightening, and looming rate cuts as a liquidity windfall for Bitcoin,” Thielen wrote.

He added that hypothetical macro tailwinds are “irrelevant if the underlying message lacks conviction and the market structure fails to support a sustained move.”

Nick Ruck of LVRG Research said upcoming U.S. jobs data and inflation figures may prove just as influential.

If they reinforce expectations for continued easing, he believes renewed liquidity inflows could fuel a broader recovery across digital assets.Bitcoin’s Rising “Liveliness” Metric Signals Hidden Bull-Market Strength

As reported, a key on-chain indicator known as “liveliness” is climbing again, even as Bitcoin’s price action remains subdued.

Analysts say the divergence suggests renewed underlying demand, with dormant coins moving at levels not seen in years, a sign that long-term holders may be re-entering the market.

The indicator’s steady rise points to a major rotation of capital beneath the surface despite cautious sentiment.

Liveliness measures the balance between coins being transacted and those being held, weighted by age. It tends to rise during bull markets as older coins move at higher prices, reflecting fresh inflows and greater conviction.

Last week, Bitfinex said the market is showing “seller exhaustion” following a period of heavy deleveraging and panic-driven exits by short-term holders.

“The combination of extreme deleveraging, capitulation among short-term holders, and early signs of seller exhaustion has created the conditions for a stabilisation phase and a relief bounce,” the firm wrote.

Chainlink price is trading in a tight price range after a strong recovery from recent lows, placing the asset at a decisive zone where momentum is likely to expand. Price has repeatedly defended the same demand area, while sellers have failed to push LINK into a sustained breakdown—often a sign of an upcoming directional move. If buyers regain control, a rally toward the $20–$22 zone could unfold. However, failure to hold current levels may expose LINK to a sharp pullback toward $12–$10.

Chainlink Price Analysis

Chainlink’s price has shown notable resilience since rebounding from the $11 region, which has now emerged as a critical support zone for bulls to defend. Despite elevated intraday volatility, sustained buying momentum has failed to push LINK decisively above $15, keeping the price trapped within a narrow range. This stalemate, however, appears deliberate rather than weak. Price fluctuations are gradually compressing while trading activity remains stable, often signaling quiet accumulation beneath the surface.

The current market structure points toward an imminent breakout, though the broader technical picture remains mixed.

EMJ Capital CEO Eric Jackson has laid out one of the most aggressive long-term bitcoin targets in the space yet, arguing in an interview with reporter Phil Rosen that the cryptocurrency could reach $50 million per coin by 2041. His projection is tied to a thesis that bitcoin will evolve from “digital gold” into the core collateral layer of the global financial system.

Jackson said his thinking grows out of the same “hundred bagger” framework he used when buying beaten-down equities like Carvana. He recalled entering Carvana after its share price collapsed from around $400 to roughly $3.50 in 2022, at a time when sentiment was almost universally hostile. “You would hear things like, that’s run by a bunch of criminals. This is what a bunch of idiots. Like you’d have to be an idiot to let your company go from $400 this year to $450 or $350 rather,” he told Rosen.

For Jackson, that period illustrated how markets behave at extremes. “It’s human nature almost that when you’re in the moment of max pain or pessimism, you can only see what’s right in front of you,” he said. Yet the underlying product remained strong: “It wasn’t a broken platform. It wasn’t a broken service […] they would tell you they loved it. It was so easy. It was the best customer experience they had.” From there, he could “envision how they were going to be like a much more profitable business” once the company focused on profitability and addressed its debt.

Jackson’s Long-Term Thesis For Bitcoin

He applies the same long-horizon lens to bitcoin, arguing that the day-to-day ticker and polarized narratives obscure its structural potential. “We get so tied to turning on the TV and just seeing, like, what’s the price of Bitcoin today […] Some people are bearish and they say, oh, it’s a Ponzi scheme. And some people are bullish and they just, you know, throw these like kind of pie in the sky targets that you can’t really tie to reality,” Jackson said. “It’s kind of hard to latch on to like, what is the value of this thing?”

Jackson begins with the common “digital gold” framing. He asks how large the gold market is, how many central banks and sovereigns hold it and why. “Could Bitcoin be as big as gold one day? That seems like a safe assumption,” he argued, adding that because it is “digital” and “programmable” rather than a “hunk of rock,” younger generations may prefer it as a store of value. But he stresses that this is only part of the story, as bitcoin has not become a medium for daily transactions “since the guy who bought pizza with Bitcoin back in like 2011.”

The “penny dropped,” he said, when he began to think in terms of what he calls the “global collateral layer” that underpins borrowing by sovereigns and central banks. Historically, that base layer moved from gold to the Eurodollar system from the 1960s onward, and today is heavily intertwined with sovereign debt. “All the countries around the world issue debt and then they kind of borrow against that and they do their daily like government transactions,” he noted, but “there are problems with that.”

In Jackson’s “Vision 2041,” bitcoin replaces the Eurodollar and, functionally, becomes the neutral asset that other balance sheets are built upon. He argues that bitcoin is “much superior” as collateral because it is digital and “apolitical,” sitting outside central banks and the influence of “whoever the latest treasury secretary here is in the US.”

As with the Eurodollar, he does not see this as a direct attack on the dollar or Treasuries, but as a new underlying layer: “There’s some underlying thing that a lot of other countries and the financial systems borrow against to kind of do things.”

Looking ahead 15 years, Jackson envisions sovereigns that currently issue and roll debt instead “rely on Bitcoin,” because “over time, like that’s much more logical.” Given the “enormous” scale of the sovereign debt world, he argues that if bitcoin becomes the dominant collateral substrate, its price per coin would need to reach orders of magnitude above current levels—hence his $50 million-by-2041 target.

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $91,574.

By Fabiana Negrin Ochoa

Robinhood Markets is preparing to enter Indonesia's fast-growing trading market by acquiring two local entities as it seeks to expand its footprint to Southeast Asia.

The U.S.-listed retail brokerage, which shot to fame during the meme-stock craze of 2021, said it has inked agreements to acquire PT Buana Capital Sekuritas, an Indonesian brokerage, and PT Pedagang Aset Kripto, a licensed Indonesian digital financial asset trader.

"Indonesia represents a fast-growing market for trading, making it an exciting place to further Robinhood's mission to democratize finance for all," said Patrick Chan, head of Asia at Robinhood.

Pieter Tanuri, the majority owner of Buana Capital and Pedagang Aset Kripto, will stay on as a strategic advisor, Robinhood said in a blog post on Sunday.

Robinhood, which operates primarily in the U.S., but has also entered markets like the U.K., said it will continue to serve Buana Capital's brokerage customers with Indonesian financial products.

"Over time, we hope to also offer Robinhood brokerage and crypto trading products and connect Indonesian customers to U.S. equities, cryptocurrencies, and more at scale," it said.

Both Indonesian acquisitions are expected to close in the first half of 2026, pending regulatory approvals.

Indonesia's crypto market has seen explosive growth in 2025, making it among the largest globally by adoption, according to financial platform OneSafe.

This boom has come alongside evolving regulations, with stricter compliance rules, a new regulatory sandbox, and real-time reporting for transparency and consumer protection, according to Ignacio E. Carballo at Payments and Commerce Market Intelligence.

"Despite volatility, crypto and blockchain are increasingly seen as tools for financial inclusion and innovation, especially as nearly half of Indonesia's adult population remains unbanked," he said in a report earlier this year.

Write to Fabiana Negrin Ochoa at fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com