CME outage overnight hasn’t stopped gold and silver’s momentum

Commodity

Summary:

A long CME outage halted futures trading overnight, but gold and silver kept rallying in OTC markets, with prices near multi-week highs as demand stays strong despite thin holiday liquidity.

After its longest technical outage in recent years, CME said that all futures trading activity, including gold and silver markets, has resumed just ahead of North America’s trading session.

Trading on the CME was halted overnight following a technical disruption.

“Due to a cooling issue at CyrusOne data centers, our markets are currently halted. Support is working to resolve the issue in the near term and will advise clients of Pre-Open details as soon as they are available,” the CME Group said in an official statement.

Despite the overnight disruption, over-the-counter spot markets continue to show solid demand for the precious metals.

CME is the biggest exchange operator by market value. Although the outage has impacted some activity in gold and silver, the precious metals also trade on over-the-counter markets which continued to rally overnight.

The gold market has seen solid demand this week, with spot prices testing resistance at $4,200 an ounce overnight. The precious metal last traded at $4,175 an ounce, up 2.7% this week and trading near a two-week high.

Meanwhile, silver is once again testing resistance just below $54 an ounce. Spot silver last traded at $53.87 an ounce, up nearly 8% so far this week.

Some analysts note that while CME’s outage has disrupted markets, the impact has been limited due to thin holiday activity. U.S. markets were closed Thursday for Thanksgiving, and on Friday they will only be open for half a day.

“It has been a long while since we’ve seen an outage of this duration. Thankfully, it arrived on a relatively quiet trading day, with many US participants enjoying a long Thanksgiving break,” said Ole Hansen, head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, in a comment on social media.

The timing of the outage has also raised the ire of precious metals conspiracy theorists, who have flooded social media with comments. The outage occurred just as silver prices were testing new highs above $54 an ounce.

Rising silver demand continues to put significant pressure on the physical market, which remains in a permanent supply deficit.

Hansen dismissed many of the conspiracy theories floating around.

“The #silver conspiracists are having a field day, claiming the @CMEGroup, worried about a thin order book, shut down its entire platform to prevent a breakout. Needless to say, that’s complete nonsense. And before the comment area lights up like a Christmas tree, do note I have been bullish on silver since 2022, and expect prices to climb further in the coming months,” he said.

Source: Kitco

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Adam

Stocks

Stocks Edge Higher, But November’s Losing Streak Looks Locked In

Daily S&P 500 Index (SPX)

U.S. equities are drifting higher Friday, though volumes are thin and the action feels more like a placeholder than a statement. A data center cooling issue at CyrusOne halted trading at the CME earlier in the session — the kind of disruption that can whip prices around when liquidity’s already scarce. And it doesn’t get much scarcer than the day after Thanksgiving.

At last check, the Dow was up 86 points, or 0.18%. The S&P 500 added 0.12%, and the Nasdaq ticked up 0.18%. Modest gains, but nobody’s popping champagne. With Wall Street running a shortened session and most desks lightly staffed, moves in either direction could get exaggerated. Traders know it — and they’re treading carefully.

A Tough Month for Tech

November’s been unkind, especially to the growth names. Doubts around AI profitability are creeping in, and investors are questioning whether the hype got ahead of the fundamentals. The Nasdaq’s down about 2% on the month — snapping a seven-month winning streak. The Dow and S&P 500 are also slightly lower, breaking six consecutive months of gains.

Still, some buyers are sniffing around. The thinking: beaten-down valuations could set up a year-end rally if sentiment turns. It’s a reasonable bet, but the market hasn’t fully committed yet. There’s interest, but not conviction.

Weekly Bounce Offers Some Relief

Despite the monthly drag, the week itself has been solid. The Dow’s up more than 2%, the S&P 500 is 3% higher, and the Nasdaq has rallied 4% — a welcome turnaround for tech longs who’ve been watching their screens bleed.

Energy and communication services are leading the charge Friday, up 0.81% and 0.84%, respectively. Consumer discretionary’s adding half a percent on Black Friday optimism. Healthcare’s the laggard, off 0.39%, while tech is barely budging — flat after a week of heavy lifting.

What to Watch

Daily Macy’s Inc.

Black Friday’s bringing modest bids to the big retailers. Macy’s is up 1.5%, Best Buy added 0.4%, and Walmart’s ticking higher. Costco, Target, and Dillard’s are fractionally green. Early reads on holiday spending could shape sentiment heading into December.

Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500: US Stocks Drift Higher as November Losses Loom_3

Elsewhere, SanDisk’s climbing more than 4% ahead of its S&P 500 inclusion — index funds are buying. On the flip side, Tilray cratered 14% after announcing a 1-for-10 reverse split. Never a good look for a stock already trading around a dollar.

Bottom line: the week’s been a winner, but November’s ending on a whimper. Buyers are nibbling, not feasting. The real test comes in December, when the market decides whether this pullback was a buying opportunity — or just the start of something bigger.

Source: fxempire

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Adam

Economic

Exchange operator CME Group (CME.O) said on Friday that some markets had reopened after global futures were thrown into chaos when the world's largest exchange operator suffered one of its longest outages in years.

The halt caused by a data centre cooling issue stopped trading across stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies. Trading had restarted by 1335 GMT after having been knocked out for over 11 hours, according to LSEG data.

QUOTES:

CHRISTOPHER KRAMER, PORTFOLIO MANAGER AND SENIOR TRADER, INVESTMENT GRADE CREDIT TEAM, NEUBERGER BERMAN, CHICAGO:

"It impacted a lot of the futures markets globally, it certainly had more of an impact on some of the key industrial metals, some of the commodity-linked futures markets, and then the equity futures side of things too, but it does look like it’s not necessarily impacting overall market activity this morning and or directional impacts.

"It certainly is a discussion for the next three to five years as we do embark on a lot of the data centre-specific issuance that’s going to be coming to markets, but also just the reliance on technology is the big theme.

"These exchanges have been backed by data centres for a long period of time now, with perfectly reliable consistency, I think this was a little bit of a unique situation from what it sounds like. I wouldn’t necessarily stress or take too much away from that. Obviously it continues to reinforce the need for secure and stable continuation of the markets as it pertains to data centres."

TED PARKHILL, CEO, INCLINE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, BOCA RATON, FLORIDA:

"We are a systematic trader, and as a quant firm, we follow daily signals. But going into the holiday, we placed all our trades on Wednesday. In a holiday period like today, we often don't have trades to place and were fortunate we didn't have to get into the market this morning. That's even more lucky because we usually do prefer to trade at the open, when volumes are best and we can get good pricing.

"But while the CME may have gotten lucky too because it was a holiday, and the impact probably will be minimal, I think there will be more systemic questions raised next week.

"I'm required to have a disaster recovery plan, to have redundancies and prove that I'm not a source of risk. Where is the CME's redundancy plan? Why couldn't they just flick a switch and move to a backup power or data center?"

FAWAD RAZAQZADA, MARKET ANALYST, CITY INDEX AND FOREX.COM:

"The market impact is quite significant because without the CME, spreads on spot gold prices, for example, would typically widen with spot liquidity providers not having much confidence in pricing without the future.

"This could bring all sorts of issues with it for traders, which makes it less than an ideal situation to trade. Traders speculating on the underlying gold and other futures markets can't exit their positions during the outage either. So, from a risk management point of view, it is a massive issue."

MIKHAIL ZHEREV, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, AMATI, LONDON:

"This isn’t just a trading issue, it's a reminder that data centres have become essential infrastructure and they are not 100% reliable, they have capacity issues.

"We’re pragmatic optimists on AI, we’ve invested in the AI supply chain.

"My anticipation is that life goes on but everybody will have yet another look at their data centre arrangements and invest more in ensuring reliable supply because the importance of data center uptime is higher and higher."

KARL SCHAMOTTA, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, CORPAY, TORONTO:

“Currency markets are taking this morning’s CME outage in their stride - functionality seems to be returning, and the EBS platform that handles FX trades is now running normally. Liquidity remains thin given that most participants executed month-end trades ahead of yesterday’s Thanksgiving holiday, and most major pairs are seeing choppy, but range-bound trading action with technical levels holding firm. Markets could hit some turbulence later this morning if benchmark prices remain muddled, but it looks as if that’s a relatively unlikely scenario.”

JOE SALUZZI, CO-MANAGER OF TRADING, THEMIS TRADING, CHATHAM, NEW JERSEY:

"This is such a strange day, in that it's always very, very light volume. If there was to be a glitch day, today's probably a good day to have it."

ALEX MORRIS, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, F/M INVESTMENTS, WASHINGTON:

"Of all the 252 trading days of the year this could have happened, this probably was the luckiest for the CME. The rolls from one contract to another all happened earlier in the week and the trading volumes today, because it's a half-day for markets, everything was sleepy anyway."

"It's hard to compete" with the liquidity and market dominance of CME-traded futures contracts, he said. Still, "a lot of people at the CME are being called in and hauled in" on what might have been a slow day or a day off for them to do more testing of the systems.

Source: reuters

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Americans are feeling rattled about the state of the economy. Donald Trump has batted away question after question from reporters on concerns over higher prices, just a year after he won an election promising to bring down costs.

While the White House has tried to reduce concern, floating tariff-funded $2,000 stimulus checks and removing import levies on certain agricultural imports, many consumers remain anxious.

Preparing for the holiday season, and bracing for the spending it often demands, Guardian readers across the US expressed apprehension – and explained how they plan to spend – in this economy. Many said the higher cost of necessities, like groceries, was imposing on their ability to buy gifts for family and friends.

“I love giving people gifts,” said Grace Brown, 34, of Charlotte, North Carolina. “I’m a person that pays attention all year and will keep notes in my phone if someone mentions something in July they may want.”

But this year is different. As prices have climbed over the last year, Brown said that her budget for gifts has shrunk. Things already feel squeezed: she and her fiance are already limiting eating out, and have agreed they won’t exchange gifts with each other this holiday.

“Prices for everything have gone up,” Brown said. “It’s kind of hard to have luxuries.”

Collection of key pricing data was halted during the shutdown, so it’s unclear how much higher prices have been rising. In September, the latest available reading, prices went up 3%, compared with 2.3% in April.

Regardless of the official data, consumers feel like prices have been climbing. On Tuesday, the Conference Board reported that consumer confidence had fallen to its lowest level since April, when Trump first announced his full slate of tariffs. The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers, another measure of consumer sentiment, similarly showed drops in confidence after the summer.

“Being on a fixed income, we have had to cut way back on our spending for the holiday,” said Jeffrey Larimore, 68, of Caldwell, Idaho. “We had enough disposable income to go out to dinner, take weekend trips and spoil [my granddaughters]. Since the tariffs have raised the cost of living, we have cut out all of that.”

Ryan, a retired law enforcement officer in Texas, who wished to withhold his last name, said his family “can barely put food on the table” let alone do holiday shopping for his young children.

“I’m scrambling to find some way to preserve some aspect of magic for them,” he said. “I spent my life in service to my country. What he [Trump] has done in less than a single year breaks my heart.”

Recent surveys indicated that Americans are set to cut back on holiday shopping this year. Deloitte estimated that spending could be down 4% compared with last year, while the National Retail Federation said that after hitting a record high last year, the amount of money Americans are planning to spend this year is down 1.3%.

In addition to prices going up, more Americans are concerned about the labor market. While expectations of unemployment dropped after Trump’s election, it has been climbing up over the last year. This sentiment tracks with the slow rise in unemployment, which was 4.4% in September – the highest it’s been since October 2021. For many, this means that higher prices aren’t the only concern.

“My homeowner’s insurance is up, 2026 health insurance is up, property taxes are up for 2026,” said Sarah Tenbensel of Minneapolis. “I may need a second job very soon.”

Shari Dunn, 57, of Oregon, said that in addition to prices going up, “there is fear regarding employment and contacts”. “It’s more than just tariffs – it’s everything. The instability and fear,” she said.

Dunn said she is participating in the economic boycott taking place over the Black Friday shopping holiday, one of a handful of consumer boycotts that have been organized since Trump started his second term.

For some, this past year has meant opting out of the economy in frustration with national politics. Linda McKim Bell, 79, of Portland, Oregon, said that she has tried not to buy anything new since Trump took office.

“I have shopped all year at online thrift stores for my family gifts,” she said. “I am making the rest of our holiday gifts: orange marmalade and homemade pastries make great gifts. Will continue to buy items that are used as much as possible.”

Brown said that even though she and her fiance have agreed not to exchange gifts, she may make a trip to Asheville, North Carolina, and support local artists there as the community continues to recover from Hurricane Helene.

“Whenever we have money to spend, we try to spend it there with small businesses,” Brown said. “One thing I just remember from high school is my teacher would always tell us ‘you vote with your dollars’.”

Source: Theguardian

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Adam

Economic

Tuesday’s weak Consumer Confidence report was a good reminder of why some economists are calling our economy the K-shaped economy. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.8 points to 88.7 in November, below expectations of 93. Moreover, it sits at levels similar to those of early 2020, when the pandemic shuttered the economy. Similarly, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey is slightly above 70-year lows. Both surveys indicate that a large majority of consumers are struggling. Within the surveys, the outlook on current jobs and job availability is low. Inflation, tariffs, politics, and the government shutdown are also weighing on the consumer and limiting big-ticket spending plans.

A K-shaped economy describes a post-crisis recovery where different parts of the economy and society are performing at sharply diverging rates, forming the two arms of the letter “K.”:

The upper arm (going up): Sectors, companies, assets, and people that benefit from the recovery and, in many cases, are wealthier than before the pandemic. This includes investors in technology stocks, big tech companies, the luxury sectors, high-income professionals, and asset owners.

The lower arm (going down): Sectors, small businesses, and people that continue to decline or stagnate even as the overall economy appears to improve. Examples include: the hospitality and travel industries, many lower-priced retail outlets, low-wage service workers, small businesses, and many middle-class and lower-income households.

The graph below, showing the stark divergence between the S&P 500 and the University of Michigan consumer survey best depicts the K-shaped economy. You can make similar K-shaped plots comparing stock markets, GDP, and megacap corporate profits versus small business closures, wage growth for low-income workers, and economic activity in the manufacturing sector.

Black Friday And Holiday Estimates

Black Friday kicks off a spending frenzy as consumers worldwide buy holiday gifts. Often, holiday sales, particularly Black Friday sales, can make or break the entire year. Given the weak consumer sentiment we outlined in the opening section, we thought it might be helpful to see a few estimates of what this year’s holiday season may have in store for consumption.

Adobe Analytics: US online sales forecasted to reach $11.7 billion, marking an 8.3% year-over-year increase from 2024’s $10.8 billion record.

National Retail Federation (NRF): Overall holiday spending for November and December is expected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time, driven by a projected 3.7% to 4.2% growth in total retail sales, slightly down from last year’s 4.8% surge.

Deloitte: They anticipate a more modest 3% rise in sales amid consumer caution over high prices and tariffs

Bain & Company: Predicts an outsized 11% increase specifically for the Black Friday weekend but a more restrained 4% holiday forecast. They expect shopper turnout to hit a record 186.9 million over the five-day Thanksgiving-to-Cyber Monday stretch, up from 183.4 million in 2024. Moreover, they suspect shoppers will be enticed with deeper discounts—averaging up to 28% off on electronics, toys, and appliances.

The graph below, courtesy of Bloomberg, shows a KPMG survey estimating the percentage of spending by broad product category.

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Daniel Carter

Political

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Norway is likely to keep aid for Ukraine close to current levels beyond next year, a senior opposition lawmaker signaled, citing a low chance of peace anytime soon.

Norway, a member of NATO and neighbor of Russia, has earmarked 85 billion kroner ($8.4 billion) in assistance to Ukraine in 2026, according to a draft budget that's being negotiated by the ruling Labor Party and its leftist partners. There's broad parliamentary backing to helping Ukraine.

"We must be prepared for the fact that the support Norway is now providing must be long-lasting," Ine Eriksen Soreide, the head of the parliament's Committee on Foreign Affairs and Defense, said in an interview on Friday.

"There is no reason to imagine that it can be scaled down very soon," said Soreide, a former defense and foreign affairs minister who is set to take over the reins of opposition Conservatives from former premier Erna Solberg in February.

Norway is among the five biggest contributors of donations to Ukraine as a share of its economy, based on data from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. It has also reaped windfall gains from increased gas and oil exports after sanctions against Russia.

Its aid is disbursed under a so-called Nansen program, with 205 billion kroner of spending planned for 2023 to 2030. So much has already been disbursed that, assuming stable outlays next year, just 10 billion kroner is left for the period from 2027. Still, its politicians have ruled out directly tapping the energy-rich nation's $2.1 trillion sovereign wealth fund — the world's largest — to boost defense spending or aid to Ukraine.

Earlier this month, Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg rebuffed suggestions that his country become the sole guarantor for a loan of about €140 billion ($162 billion) by the European Union to Ukraine, according to broadcaster NRK. Norway isn't part of the bloc though it has access to the single market through the European Economic Area agreement.

Soreide said her party is urging the government to consider contributing to a potential guarantee mechanism should the EU strike an agreement and invite third countries to join.

She declined to specify any potential increases to Norway's contributions. Her party isn't pushing for any ceiling for Ukraine aid.

There's a need to avoid a situation where "it's primarily northern European countries that contribute," while "it is also important to keep the United States in and engaged in it," Soreide said.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Samantha Luan

Forex

Economic

Australian home prices will rise more than previously expected in 2026, thanks to tight supply and resilient demand, according to a Reuters poll of analysts who said a lack of entry-level homes is still among the biggest barriers for first-time buyers.

House prices rose around 40% during the COVID-19 pandemic but fell about 9% when the Reserve Bank of Australia hiked interest rates to combat high inflation.

The central bank's 75 basis points of rate cuts in 2025 have reignited buyer interest, however, pushing the national median home price to a record high of A$872,538 in October.

But with interest rates expected to stay at an over two-year low of 3.60% in the near term, analysts predict national home prices will continue to outrun the country's inflation rate.

The November 13–26 survey of 15 property analysts showed national home prices rising around 8% this year and 6.9% in 2026, up from 5.0% and 5.6% in the previous poll - the largest upgrade this year.

Home prices in Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth will rise between 5% and 7% next year.

"It's a resumption of consumer confidence with the interest rate fall, which then leads to a sense of fear of missing out," said Michael Yardney, founder of Metropole, a real estate advisory firm.

"We still haven't got enough properties for all the immigrants and the first-time buyers, so I see strong price growth, especially in the first six months of 2026. Then maybe things will slow a little bit in the second half."

Only two of 11 analysts who answered a separate question expected purchasing affordability for first-time buyers to improve over the coming year.

While existing homeowners reap most of the benefits of rising property values, first-time buyers are being squeezed by a dearth of listings, weak wage growth and tighter borrowing limits.

MEDIAN HOME VALUE

In Australia, the median value of a home is now nearly eight times annual income, and about two-thirds of households own property.

Most respondents cited a shortage of entry-level homes, followed by difficulty saving for a deposit as the most severe barriers for first-time buyers.

"High rents, cost-of-living pressures, and only moderate wage growth will continue to make deposit saving difficult," said Mark Dawson, director at Urbis.

"While elevated construction costs, labour constraints, and longer delivery time frames mean the supply of genuinely entry-level dwellings is unlikely to increase materially in such a short period."

A federal scheme allowing first-time buyers to purchase with a 5% deposit has eased pressure, but analysts warned it risks inflating demand without addressing the underlying shortage of homes.

Meanwhile, the government has pledged to build 1.2 million new homes by 2030.

"To see the 1.2 million homes over the next five years is impossible. It's definitely good to set a target, but we find ourselves in a situation where perhaps even 1.2 million is not going to be enough to meet growth and demand," said Maurice Tapang, senior economist at Housing Industry Association.