Investing.com -- Randian Capital, a retail activist investor that helped catalyze a monstrous stock jump and management overhaul at Opendoor Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:OPEN)earlier this year, has set its sights on a new target: Clear Secure Inc (NYSE:YOU).
Amid a push for a strategic turnaround at One Group Holdings, Randian is now betting that the Trump administration’s focus on government efficiency will transform Clear from a niche travel perk into a critical pillar of national infrastructure.
In a series of recent posts on X and a statement made to Investing.com, Randian argued that the market is fundamentally mispricing the identity-verification company, failing to account for its potential to replace what the investor calls the "hidden tax" of TSA wait times.
Outsourcing the TSA
The crux of Randian’s thesis rests on the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). With the TSA currently operating on an annual budget exceeding $11 billion, Randian posits that the agency’s inefficiency is not a hurdle for Clear, but a massive total addressable market (TAM) waiting to be unlocked.
"The TSA spends billions delivering long lines and outdated tech," Randian stated. "A real efficiency agenda would outsource major portions, if not all, of airport security to Clear over time. It saves taxpayers billions and gives Americans their time back."
In its statement, Randian emphasized to Investing.com that Clear’s existing infrastructure is the ideal foundation for this transition. "We believe the Clear experience is a great product as shown by consistent positive customer feedback and growth, and the company should take advantage of the DOGE momentum to take over additional parts of the TSA value chain," the investor noted.
By leveraging Clear’s existing biometric infrastructure, Randian suggests the U.S. could see a "GDP increase overnight" as lost productivity in airport terminals is reclaimed. The investor also floated the idea of a potential partnership with Palantir Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:PLTR) to integrate AI-driven automated threat detection and predictive screening.
A "Defense Prime" Valuation
Despite a heavy short interest, currently sitting at roughly 17% of the float, Randian sees a clear path to a multibillion-dollar valuation upgrade. The investor’s model projects:
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Long-term EBITDA: $500 million as the company absorbs TSA functions.
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Valuation Multiple: 15x–20x, consistent with "Defense Prime" stocks characterized by sticky, predictable federal revenue.
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Target Enterprise Value: $7.5 billion to $10 billion, representing a potential 50% to 100% upside from current levels.
To accelerate this value realization, Randian is calling for Clear’s management to overhaul its capital allocation strategy. "The company should seriously consider a modest amount of leverage to increase the pace of repurchases at current attractive levels," Randian told Investing.com, specifically advocating for $200 million to $300 million in aggressive stock buybacks.
Beyond the Airport Gate
While travel remains the core driver, the activist’s thesis extends into the broader "identity economy." In a post-AI world, Randian argues that biometrics will become the gold standard for high-stakes verification, including:
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Banking and Financial Services
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Secure Voting Systems
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Live Event Access
"Identity is a critical vector," Randian noted. "In the AI era, biometrics win. Clear isn’t just an airport company; it’s an identity utility."
Market Sentiment
Wall Street has historically viewed Clear through the lens of discretionary consumer spending, a "nice-to-have" subscription for frequent flyers. Randian’s pivot toward a "Government-as-a-Service" model challenges that narrative.
Clear Secure Inc stock was 0.5% higher on Tuesday, as of 1:00 pm ET.
