Chinese Gold-Mining Stocks Fall After Gold Retreats

Zijin Mining's 2025 gold production could top its guidance, Jefferies analysts say in a research note. After its acquisition of Raygorodok gold mine, the analysts think Zijin's gold production could reach 89 tons this year, higher than its guidance of 85 tons. Zijin may achieve its goal of producing 100-110 tons of gold annually in 2028 ahead of schedule, the analysts note. Besides ramping up domestic assets, overseas growth could be a key driver, they say, especially as the company just completed a spin-off of Zijin Gold. Jefferies expects Zijin's mines outside of China to deliver 47-48 tons of output in 2025, retaining its buy call while lifting its target price to HK$38.10 from HK$29.60. Shares are last at HK$32.52. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

Zijin Mining's 4Q 2025 and 2026 earnings are likely to be boosted by sustained gold-price strength and new mine contributions, say HSBC Global Investment Research analysts in a note. The Chinese miner's output growth is underpinned by quality assets, supporting a projected 31% earnings CAGR over 2024-2027, they say. Rising gold volumes and prices should lift gross profit contribution, while higher copper and gold price assumptions enhance earnings visibility. HSBC raises its 2025, 2026 and 2027 earnings estimates by 5%, 10% and 6%, respectively. The bank lifts its target on Zijin Mining's H-shares to HK$43.00 from HK$41.80 and on the A-shares to CNY39.20 from CNY38.00, while maintaining buy ratings. Zijin Mining rises 1.7% to HK$33.02 in Hong Kong and advances 2.1% to CNY30.37 in Shanghai. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

By Sherry Qin

Mainland Chinese gold mining stocks surged as markets reopened after the Golden Week holiday, catching up with gains in Hong Kong-listed peers after spot gold topped $4,000 a troy ounce amid global political uncertainty.

Zijin Mining Group shares jumped 8.4% by midday Thursday, Shandong Gold Mining gained 10%, the daily limit in Shanghai, and Zhongjin Gold advanced 8.9%.

The rally in gold producers lifted the Shanghai Composite Index 1.2% to 3931.07 by midday, pushing the benchmark above the 3900 level for the first time since August 2015.

China's mainland stock markets had been closed from Oct. 1 to Oct. 8 for the Golden Week holiday.

Spot gold surpassed $4,000 per troy ounce on Wednesday for the first time and last traded at $4,040.46 per troy ounce.

Investors have turned to gold as a safe haven amid an extended U.S. government shutdown that could complicate the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, as well as growing political jitters in France and Japan.

HSBC analysts said that with additional Fed rate cuts expected over the next 12 months, gold prices are likely to be supported in the near term--and Chinese gold miners stand to benefit from the sustained rally.

The recent euphoria around gold has likely also buoyed shares of other metals and mining companies, said Moningstar analyst Kai Wang. Ganfeng Lithium rose 9.1% in Shenzhen, while Jiangxi Copper was up 10% in Shanghai.

"Some investors may be indiscriminately buying hard-metal commodities because of the rise of gold," Wang added.

Write to Sherry Qin at sherry.qin@wsj.com

China's gold miners stand to benefit from higher gold prices, HSBC Global Investment Research analysts say in a report. Gold prices could continue rising in the short term and into 1H 2026 due to factors such as geopolitical risks and financial-market turbulence, the analysts say. HSBC raises its average gold forecasts to $3,355/oz from $3,215/oz for 2025, to $3,950/oz from $3,125/oz for 2026 and to $3,600/oz from $2,925/oz for 2027. HSBC also raises target prices of Zijin Mining's H shares to HK$41.80 from HK$37.70, Shandong Gold Mining's A shares to CNY50.00 from CNY36.00 and Zhaojin Mining Industry's H shares to HK$37.10 from HK$23.70. It has buy ratings on all three stocks. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

By Sherry Qin

Chinese gold-mining stocks continued to surge as spot gold passed a new milestone, buoyed by hedging demand amid uncertainty about U.S. policy and global political turmoil.

Spot gold crossed $4,000 a troy ounce for the first time on Wednesday and was recently trading about 1.1% higher at around $4,030 an ounce. The precious metal has been on a tear, advancing more than 50% this year and outperforming major stock indexes amid a rush into alternative assets.

The rally propelled shares of Hong Kong-listed gold miners higher. Zijin Gold International, which began trading last week, jumped as much as 7.9% to 158.90 Hong Kong dollars, more than double its initial public offering price. Shandong Gold Mining rose by the same percentage, while Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining surged as much as 17%.

Chinese stock markets were closed for the Golden Week holiday.

"Gold has staged a historic rally, doubling in less than two years, spurred by central-bank buying as it diversifies away from the U.S. dollar, President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policy and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine," ING commodities strategist Ewa Manthey said in a note.

As the U.S. government shutdown extended into the second week, key economic data releases have been delayed, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making on monetary policy. Markets continue to expect the Fed to deliver another 25 basis-point cut this month, which would further benefit the precious metal.

Globally, political jitters remain, boosting the appeal of the safe-haven asset. French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned on Monday after a month in the job, plunging the country deeper into turmoil, while Japan's ruling party elected fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi as its new leader over the weekend, positioning her to be the country's first female prime minister.

These factors have also added to gold's rally, ANZ analysts said in a note.

Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China extended its gold buying streak in September for an 11th consecutive month despite record prices.

Goldman Sachs sees the yellow metal scaling new highs. It now expects gold to reach $4,900 an ounce by December 2026, compared with $4,300 forecast previously, citing exchange-traded-fund inflows and central-bank buying.

Write to Sherry Qin at sherry.qin@wsj.com

By Sherry Qin

Chinese gold mining stocks rose sharply in Hong Kong after the precious metal notched a fresh record high on an extended U.S. government shutdown and persistent geopolitical risks.

Zijin Gold International, which debuted in Hong Kong last week, rose 5.1% in early trade on Monday while its parent company Zijin Mining was 2.5% higher. Shandong Gold Mining advanced 5.5%.

Mainland China's stock markets are closed due to the Golden Week holiday.

The gains come against a backdrop of record-high gold prices, buoyed by demand for safe-haven assets amid market volatility and heavy buying from central banks.

Spot gold prices have rallied 49% so far this year to $3,921.28 per troy ounce, before touching a new record high of US$3,924.68 per troy ounce earlier this session.

The safe-haven asset is increasingly appealing given that the U.S. government shutdown is expected to stretch into this week. The shutdown has delayed key labor market and inflation data, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making on monetary policy.

Meanwhile, geopolitical risks spanning the Middle East and Ukraine have added to gold's upward momentum.

"These developments are amplifying hedging demand for gold as markets weigh the risk of shocks across multiple fronts," said Samer Hasn, senior market analyst at XS.com in a note.

Gold's rally shows no signs of slowing as global retail investment demand intensifies, said Heng Koon How at UOB Global Economics & Markets Research. Since the yellow metal broke past the psychologically-important $3,500 level, gold has powered higher over the past month, underpinned by demand for gold-backed ETFs, futures and related investment products, said the head of markets strategy.

All of the metal's key long-term positive drivers, especially further dollar weakness and strong allocation from central banks, remain firmly in place, he added. That, plus the surge in retail interest, prompted UOB to lift its price forecasts further beyond $4,000 per troy ounce next year .

Write to Sherry Qin at sherry.qin@wsj.com