Chinese Gold Mining Stocks Tumble After Gold Plunges

Under the terms of the agreement, Zijin will pay CAD44 per share, which is a premium of approximately 27% to Allied Gold’s 30-day volume-weighted average price on the TSX as of the market close on Friday.

Allied Gold chairman and chief executive Peter Marrone said: "The announced transaction provides a highly attractive all-cash offer for Allied Gold at what represents an all-time high for the company’s share price, crystallising significant and certain value for its shareholders.

"The transaction is also a testament to the exceptional efforts of the entire Allied Gold team to identify, finance, optimise, grow, and develop what we have always known is a world-class portfolio of gold assets across Africa, and it is also an endorsement of these high-quality assets and the mining-friendly jurisdictions where they are located."

He noted that Zijin is among the world’s largest mining companies "with a proven track record of successful international transactions, project development and operational excellence".

The deal is expected to close by late April.

Zijin Gold is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and as of last Friday, had a market capitalisation of about $70bn.

By Sherry Qin

Mining stocks rose sharply in Hong Kong and China as gold prices surged past a new milestone on U.S. government shutdown fears, geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty.

Spot gold climbed above US$5,000 a troy ounce for the first time on Monday and was last up 2.0% at $5,088.75 a troy ounce.

The rally propelled shares of China- and Hong Kong-listed gold miners higher. Zijin Mining Group climbed 7.1% in Hong Kong and 7.0% in Shanghai. Its gold-mining arm, Zijin Gold International, rose 5.05%. Shandong Gold Mining and Zhongjin Gold were up 5.0% and 10.0%, respectively.

The risk of a U.S. government shutdown rose after Senate Democrats said they wouldn't vote for a funding package without major changes to the homeland security provisions following the fatal Minneapolis shooting by immigration agents.

Lawmakers must get a spending package to President Trump's desk for signature by Friday, or a shutdown could be triggered.

The surge in gold prices is "justifiable given the rise in geopolitical risks and [the] macro environment," William Blair analyst Alexandra Symeonidi said in a note.

The U.S.'s seizure of Venezuela's strongman Nicolas Maduro and President Trump's ambition to annex Greenland have both heightened geopolitical tensions and pushed up prices for the safe-haven asset.

The Fed's policy path is uncertain amid question marks about the U.S. economy and the next Fed leadership, Symeonidi noted, adding that there is growing consensus among market participants that the dollar may remain weak.

Write to Sherry Qin at sherry.qin@wsj.com

This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron's.

6 Ways to Play Copper

Quick Takes The Institutional View Dec. 23: My two big themes for 2025 were gold and silver. Thankfully they were the leading investments this past year. 2026 should see them continue their winning ways, with silver continuing to outperform gold. I have written often that my long-term work projects to $100-plus silver in 2026, with a long-term target of $250-plus.

The surprise metal that may outperform silver and gold next year is copper. We recently recommended buying and maintaining long positions in LME copper. Copper's technical position is similar to where gold was in March 2024, when it broke out decisively from its 13-year base by hurdling $2,200. Copper began its secular bull market only as recently as this month! That means that it has significantly further to soar in both time and price.

We continue to have Buy recommendations on six copper stocks: Zijin Mining, Antofagasta, Bolinden, Lundin Mining, MMG, and Southern Copper. I expect to be adding additional miners in the coming weeks and months.

Andrew Addison

Oil Is Oversold

Commodities Focus NDR Ned Davis Research Dec. 23: Following a sustained three-year decline, crude is trading at its most oversold level in more than a decade (excluding the pandemic).

The recent Dallas Fed Energy survey shows crude pessimism continues to spread among E&P [exploration and production] and Services firms, echoing market-based measures of sentiment.

We don't see the makings of a lasting rally, but with sentiment and positioning this one-sided, the setup for a sharp countertrend bounce is hard to ignore.

Matt Bauer

Rates Tailwind for Stocks

Weekly Market Commentary LPL Financial Dec. 15: The Fed rate cycle should provide another tailwind for stocks in 2026, as it did in 2025. If the economy holds up, rate-cutting cycles tend to be followed by stock market gains. Stocks prefer rate cuts that are luxuries rather than emergencies — and we would categorize coming cuts as the former. The Fed is normalizing rates, not staving off an impending recession.

This rate-cutting cycle is unique because stocks are near all-time highs. In previous instances when the Fed cut rates, stocks were at or near record highs (we found 28 cases) and the S&P 500 was 13% higher on average 12 months later, with 93% of those 28 periods producing gains. Filtering that further, when the U.S. economy wasn't in recession around a rate cut, the average 12-month return for the S&P 500 increased to 18%, with gains in all 21 periods. Near recessions, the S&P 500 lost 2.7% on average in the 12 months after the Fed reduced rates, with only 25% of periods generating a gain.

Jeffrey Buchbinder

2026 Bond Market Outlook

The Weekly Five Northern Trust Dec. 19: Three characteristics are shaping bond markets as we approach 2026: Nominal (non-inflation adjusted) yields are higher than their 20-year trend across longer-maturity bonds, credit spreads (the extra compensation investors require for investing in non-government-issued bonds) are extremely low, and global defaults (bond issuers failing to meet financial obligations, including missing an interest payment) are below longer-term averages.

While many readers may recall historical periods when interest rates were meaningfully higher, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield sits at levels not seen since 2008. For nearly 18 years, investors, lenders, and borrowers have lived in a world of sub-5% 10-year Treasury yields. And despite this year's trade policy and inflationary issues, this has remained a durable ceiling. Although we anticipate inflation to abate, the coming change in Fed leadership, the gap between tariff rates and actual collections, and the risk of a widening fiscal gap could present a test to the 5% ceiling on the 10-year Treasury yield. A breach above that level is not our base case, but we have to respect upside risks to yields from levels we have grown accustomed to.

Eric Freedman

Calm Down. This Isn't 1999.

Articles William Blair Dec. 11: We view the current environment as distinct from the internet bubble of 1999. Today's companies investing in the buildout of AI infrastructure are mostly generating substantial free cash flow and funding growth organically. In contrast, the 1999 internet bubble was fueled largely by capital markets, with many businesses reliant on external financing and unsustainable business models that weren't generating a profit.

In the late 1990s, a large amount of capital was used to install dark fiber — unused fiberoptic cables — capacity that far exceeded demand. While this overbuild of capacity eventually proved useful, it initially led to poor returns on invested capital as telecom companies poured billions into infrastructure that sat idle for many years. Eventually, the capital markets shut down, driven by higher interest rates and lack of near-term revenue. This dynamic, coupled with low returns from these investments, became problematic.

In contrast, today's AI cycle is seeing the opposite dynamic. Graphic processing units (GPUs), the foundation used for AI workloads, have been deployed at or near full utilization since day one, generating immediate productivity and revenue for AI developers and hyperscalers (large data center companies).

The comparison highlights a key difference between past and present technology investment cycles. Dark fiber was a case of supply racing ahead of demand, whereas modern AI infrastructure is a case of demand pulling supply forward, supporting higher initial returns on capital deployed.

Jim Golan

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By Megan Cheah

Shares of Chinese mining companies rose Thursday after copper prices hit a record high overnight amid mounting supply concerns.

Zijin Mining Group's Hong Kong stock climbed as much as 4.45% to 34.24 Hong Kong dollars, equivalent to US$4.40, in early trading before paring gains to about 2.0%. Its Shanghai-listed shares were 3.0% higher at midday.

Jiangxi Copper's shares in Hong Kong rose 2.0%, trimming an earlier gain of 5.0%, while its China stock added 3.1%. Hong Kong-listed MMG, which is majority owned by state-owned China Minmetals, was recently 0.9% higher after rising 6.0% earlier.

The advances came as copper--a crucial industrial metal used in electric vehicles and power grids--climbed to new highs on Wednesday, with the three-month contract on the London Metal Exchange surpassing US$11,500 a metric ton. The base metal was recently trading 0.2% higher.

Traders have been increasing shipments to the U.S. on fears that the Trump administration could impose new copper-related tariffs next year, squeezing supply in other markets. Disruptions at major mines worldwide have also led copper producers, such as European mining giant Glencore, to cut their production forecasts.

Rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December are also supporting copper prices, as lower borrowing costs usually boost economic activity, increasing demand for the commodity.

Higher prices bode well for Chinese mining stocks, analysts said.

DBS Group Research analyst Lee Eun Young has Zijin Mining and MMG at the top of her sector pecking order, with buy ratings on both.

Copper is likely to make up 43% of Zijin Mining's projected gross profit this year, and the ample reserves could help drive a 28% earnings compound annual growth rate by 2027, she said. She also sees MMG as an ideal proxy for copper prices, as 74% of its revenue is derived from the metal.

Citi analysts led by Jack Shang maintained a buy rating on Zijin Mining, saying its copper assets appear undervalued. Among pure-play copper companies, the bank likes MMG over CMOC Group for its more attractive valuation.

Write to Megan Cheah at megan.cheah@wsj.com

The growing copper supply shortage could drive prices of the commodity higher, DBS Group Research's Eun Young Lee says in a note. Average prices of the base metal are likely to increase by 3.1% to $9,900 a ton in 2026, as the supply dearth could rise to 316,000 tons next year, the analyst says. The shortage likely stems from sustained demand growth, driven by investments in data centers and power grids, she adds. The analyst also notes limited supply growth in mined copper, given severe disruptions and falling ore grades. Chinese copper-mining companies could benefit, with Zijin Mining and MMG as DBS's top picks. The former has a strong gold and copper asset portfolio, while the latter is an ideal copper proxy as it derives 74% of its revenue from the metal. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

By Adriano Marchese

Shares in Ivanhoe Mines were higher Wednesday morning after the miner named company veteran Tom van den Berg as chief operating officer.

Shares rose 6.7% to 14.10 Canadian dollars ($10.01).

Van den Berg will take on the new role starting Jan. 1. He is currently senior executive of operations at Ivanhoe's Kamoa-Kakula project in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The company jointly owns the project with Zijin Mining, the DRC government, and Crystal River, and Van den Berg will remain at Kamoa-Kakula for an interim period to oversee the operational recovery and turnaround strategy there.

He succeeds Mark Farren, who will transition from his executive role to become strategic adviser to the board and continue to support the company, Ivanhoe said Wednesday.

Write to Adriano Marchese at adriano.marchese@wsj.com