China’s Economic Woes Deepen in October as Property Crash and Investment Drop Threaten Growth Momentum

Economic

Summary:

China's economic activity faltered in October 2025, with fixed-asset investment plunging and the property sector deteriorating further. Despite modest gains in retail and industrial output..

Fixed-asset investment plunges as housing collapse accelerates

One of the most striking data points from October was the deepening contraction in fixed-asset investment, which declined 1.7% in the first ten months of 2025, worsening from a 0.5% drop during the January–September period. This is not merely a cyclical fluctuation but represents a structural weakening, particularly in real estate. On a monthly basis, investment fell a staggering 11.4% compared to the same period last year the sharpest decline since the early COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020.

Property investment, a crucial component of China’s long-standing growth model, contracted 14.7% through October, worsening from a 13.9% decline seen previously. This persistent slump suggests a clear causal link between the housing downturn and the broader investment collapse, especially as infrastructure spending and private development stall simultaneously.

Although utilities investment surged 12.5% and manufacturing investment rose 2.7%, these gains were insufficient to offset the drag from real estate. Analysts attribute the collapse partly to Beijing's continued tightening around overcapacity in heavy industries and its limited direct support for the housing market. These policy decisions, though intentional, now appear to be exacting a heavier toll on aggregate demand than expected.

Industrial output slows, undercut by holiday and soft demand

Industrial production expanded 4.9% year-on-year in October, down from 6.5% in September and missing expectations of a 5.5% increase. The deceleration is attributed both to a long national holiday from October 1–8 and ongoing weakness in export demand, particularly toward the U.S.

China’s manufacturing sector also reported its lowest activity in six months, indicating the slowdown is not merely calendar-driven. The weakening performance in industrial output, combined with subdued investment, paints a concerning picture for future production capacity utilization and supply-side momentum.

Retail sales growth stalls despite beating expectations

Retail sales grew by 2.9% in October, slightly surpassing market expectations of 2.8%, but still marking the fifth consecutive monthly slowdown and the lowest figure year-to-date. This softening in consumer spending reflects waning household confidence, likely tied to the deflationary property market and stagnating wage growth.

Although the urban unemployment rate improved slightly from 5.2% in September to 5.1%, it may not yet be enough to revive broader consumption sentiment. The economy is still struggling to shift toward a consumer-driven growth model as intended.

Price data signal tentative demand stabilization

Inflation turned positive in October, with consumer prices rising 0.2% year-on-year the first increase since June and the strongest reading since January. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, climbed 1.2%, its highest level since early 2024. While this suggests some underlying demand resilience, the pace remains modest and unlikely to significantly change the current disinflationary narrative.

China’s exports unexpectedly contracted in October for the first time in nearly two years, primarily due to a sharp drop in shipments to the U.S. amid escalating trade tensions. Although Presidents Trump and Xi reached a temporary détente by agreeing to suspend new tariffs for a year, the export weakness has already materialized, amplifying the external headwinds facing China’s economy.

The decline in exports, coupled with sluggish domestic drivers, reinforces the idea that without substantial fiscal or monetary support, the current pace of growth will remain vulnerable to both internal fragilities and external shocks.

Risks mount as recovery momentum stalls

China’s economy is showing signs of exhaustion, with the October data highlighting serious structural cracks, particularly in the real estate sector. Fixed-asset investment is falling at a pandemic-era pace, consumer demand is weakening despite positive inflation, and industrial output is losing steam. While the government still appears on track to meet its modest 5% growth target for the year, this stability is fragile.

Economists do not expect a major stimulus rollout in the remaining months of 2025. However, the depth of the contraction in investment and the fading impact of post-COVID recovery policies suggest that a more proactive fiscal approach will be needed early next year to prevent a prolonged stagnation. The longer Beijing waits to revive investor and consumer confidence, the harder it may be to reignite sustainable growth momentum.

Source: CNBC

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Economic

Stocks

AI bubble fears ripple from Wall Street to Asia

Stock markets across Asia slid into the red on November 14, 2025, tracking Wall Street’s steepest decline since April. The global rout was triggered by a broad sell-off in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, particularly those seen as overvalued after months of parabolic gains. Nvidia, which lost 3.6% overnight, led the downturn alongside names like Palantir, Super Micro Computer, and Broadcom, all of which had delivered triple-digit returns earlier in the year.

The tech pullback reflects rising concern that AI stocks may have entered bubble territory, reminiscent of the dot-com boom-and-bust cycle of the early 2000s. The comparison is not merely symbolic; it highlights a growing belief that valuations are now detached from fundamental earnings potential, leading investors to reduce exposure across the sector. This fear, combined with evaporating expectations for another U.S. rate cut in December, caused sharp risk aversion.

Asia’s tech-heavy indexes lead regional slide

South Korea’s Kospi bore the brunt of the Asia-wide retreat, plunging 3.2% to 4,038.61. Major chipmakers were hit hard: Samsung Electronics fell 4.1%, SK Hynix tumbled 6.4%, and LG Energy Solutions declined 3.7%. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 1.7%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 reversed gains to close down nearly 1.7% at 50,438.99, led by a 5.7% drop in SoftBank Group, which has extensive exposure to AI startups and high-tech ventures.

The widespread losses across Asia indicate more than just a reactionary move to Wall Street. They reflect an underlying dependency on the global tech cycle, particularly among export-heavy economies like South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan, where semiconductors and AI-related hardware are critical economic drivers. The correlation between U.S. market performance and regional tech exposure reveals the fragility of Asia’s current growth path amid external shocks.

China’s economic data adds to bearish sentiment

Chinese markets also struggled. The Hang Seng in Hong Kong lost 1.3% to 26,732.99, while the Shanghai Composite dipped 0.2% to 4,022.89. Contributing to the weak tone was the release of disappointing industrial output data, which showed only 4.9% year-on-year growth in October, the slowest pace in 14 months and well below September’s 6.5% expansion. Fixed-asset investment also fell 1.7% over the January–October period, a deterioration from the 0.5% drop reported earlier.

The persistent weakness in China’s real estate sector continues to suppress business investment and dampen consumer sentiment. These figures underline structural economic challenges rather than short-term fluctuations and likely played a role in dragging down broader market sentiment across the region. The relationship here is partly causal: sluggish factory and investment performance points to deep-rooted domestic vulnerabilities that amplify external shocks like AI-led volatility.

Australia and India join the retreat

Australia’s ASX 200 dropped 1.4% to 8,628.30 as optimism for a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia faded following a robust jobs report, which reinforced the case for a prolonged hold on monetary easing. India’s BSE Sensex was relatively resilient but still lost 0.4%, suggesting that even emerging market investors are taking a more cautious stance in response to global rate uncertainty and tech sector headwinds.

The S&P 500 fell 1.7% to 6,737.49, marking its second-worst day since April. The Dow dropped 1.7% from a record high, and the Nasdaq Composite shed 2.3% to 22,870.36. The plunge followed the fading probability of a third rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2025, with current odds standing at just 51.9% down from nearly 70% a week ago, according to CME Group data.

The unwinding of interest rate cut expectations is not simply a reflection of better economic data. Rather, it reveals investor concern that high inflation and tepid labor market recovery are creating a policy bind for the Fed reducing its ability to stimulate further without risking price instability. This policy uncertainty is now spilling over into global equity markets.

With AI stocks stumbling and monetary policy clarity slipping, global equity markets are entering a more volatile phase. Asian markets, particularly those with strong tech exposure, are feeling the pinch acutely, compounded by weak macroeconomic data from China and mixed signals from central banks like the Fed and RBA. Until investors regain confidence in earnings sustainability and policy direction, both valuation-driven selloffs and macro-induced corrections are likely to remain key themes across global markets.

Source: AP

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Winkelmann

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Economic

China's factory output and retail sales grew at their weakest pace in over a year in October, piling pressure on policymakers to revamp the $19 trillion export-driven economy as mounting supply and demand strains threaten to further curtail growth.

For decades, officials charged with keeping the world's second-largest economy humming have had the option of spurring its vast industrial complex to boost exports should consumers tighten spending at home, or reaching into the public purse to fund GDP-boosting infrastructure projects.

But U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff war is providing a stark reminder of the manufacturing juggernaut's reliance on the world's largest consumer market, and even an economy of China's size can only squeeze so much growth from building more industrial parks, power substations and dams.

Friday's indicators gave little hope for a quick turnaround, and the worse the data gets month after month, the more urgent the need for reform becomes.

Industrial output grew 4.9% year-on-year in October, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed, the weakest annual pace since August 2024, compared with a 6.5% rise in September. It missed a 5.5% increase forecast in a Reuters poll.

Retail sales, a gauge of consumption, expanded 2.9% last month, also their worst pace since last August, easing from a 3.0% rise in September, compared with a forecast gain of 2.8%.

Policymakers acknowledge the need for change to address historical supply-demand imbalances, lift household consumption and tackle towering local government debt that keep provinces — many with economies the size of nations — from being self-reliant.

All the same, they also recognise structural reform will be painful, and is fraught with political risk at a time when Trump's trade war has ramped up pressure on the economy.

China's exports unexpectedly crumbled in October, separate data showed last week, as producers struggle to turn a profit in other markets after months of front-loading to beat Trump's tariff threats.

Surprisingly, China's car sales also snapped an eight-month growth streak, despite expectations that purchases would accelerate ahead of the phase-out of various tax breaks and government subsidies. That's worrying as the fourth quarter is typically the strongest for auto sales, and the slump came even with an extra day due to a national holiday this October compared with 2024.

Fixed asset investment shrank 1.7% in the first 10 months of the year from the same period last year, compared with an expected 0.8% drop. It had shrunk 0.5% over the January-September period.

And a protracted slowdown in the nation's crucial property sector, a key store of household wealth, showed no sign of abating, with new home prices falling at their fastest monthly pace in a year

China's ruling Communist Party met last month to chart the country's economic course for the next five years, pledging to lift household consumption's share of GDP "significantly" while also stressing the need to reinforce its vast industrial base.

That has some economists speculating whether Beijing will likely be tempted again to take the path of least resistance, reaching for its usual playbook of channelling resources to large firms while bypassing private producers and households.

Infrastructure investment, they note, will be a quicker way for Beijing to ensure the economy hits the official annual growth target of "around 5%".

Source: Investing

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Diplomatic reset sets stage for renewed trade cooperation

Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira, following a meeting in Washington with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, announced that both nations are on track to finalize a provisional trade agreement within weeks. This preliminary deal, expected by late November or early December, will lay the groundwork for a more comprehensive and final agreement within two to three months — a development that aims to resolve all pending disputes between the hemisphere’s two largest economies.

The shift in tone between Brazil and the U.S. marks a significant turnaround from earlier this year when trade tensions peaked. In July, President Donald Trump imposed punitive tariffs of up to 50% on Brazilian exports, escalating beyond his standard 10% across-the-board tariffs. Though exemptions were later granted for select goods, the trade relationship remained strained, influenced in part by the geopolitical fallout surrounding former President Jair Bolsonaro’s failed re-election bid and subsequent legal challenges.

Political reconciliation paves the way for economic diplomacy

The warming of bilateral ties began in September with a brief exchange between Presidents Trump and Lula da Silva at the United Nations, followed by a more substantive meeting in Malaysia in October. There, Lula petitioned the U.S. leader to lift both tariffs and sanctions on Brazilian officials, describing the encounter as constructive and forecasting a “definitive solution” to bilateral disputes.

These high-level meetings appear to have revived the stalled trade dialogue, leading Brazil to submit a formal trade proposal to U.S. counterparts last week. While the exact contents of Brazil’s proposal remain undisclosed, Minister Vieira indicated that it addressed Washington’s prior requests. He expects a U.S. response imminently, possibly as soon as Friday, signaling accelerated negotiations.

Tariffs on Brazilian exports remain a sticking point

Though tariffs remain a central issue, some developments suggest easing may be forthcoming. President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently hinted at a possible reduction in tariffs on Brazilian coffee, one of Brazil’s flagship exports. Notably, coffee had been excluded from the earlier exemption list. Despite this, Vieira confirmed he did not specifically raise the topic of coffee with Secretary Rubio during their Washington meeting, choosing instead to focus on overarching trade principles.

Given Brazil’s dominant position as the world’s leading coffee exporter, any tariff adjustments on the commodity could carry significant trade implications. The absence of direct discussion in this round may reflect ongoing behind-the-scenes negotiations or a strategic delay until a broader framework is finalized.

Looking ahead: toward a reciprocal trade framework

The U.S. State Department issued a brief statement confirming that Secretary Rubio and Minister Vieira discussed creating a “reciprocal framework” for the U.S.–Brazil trade relationship. The phrase suggests a pivot toward a more balanced and mutually beneficial trade model, moving away from punitive tariffs toward negotiated market access and regulatory alignment.

As both governments work toward a temporary deal that can stabilize the trade channel, the success of these talks could set the stage for deeper commercial engagement potentially encompassing not just tariff reductions but also cooperation in energy, agriculture, digital trade, and infrastructure investment.

Although the immediate goal is a provisional deal, the rapid thaw in diplomatic ties between Brazil and the U.S. reflects a broader recalibration of foreign policy priorities by both administrations. While many operational details remain unresolved including key sectoral exemptions, commodity-specific tariffs, and dispute mechanisms the path toward normalization appears to be in motion. The coming weeks will be pivotal in determining whether rhetoric and diplomacy can translate into binding economic outcomes.

Source: Bloomberg

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Investment falters amid mounting property distress

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics revealed a deepening contraction in fixed-asset investment, which fell 1.7% in the first ten months of 2025. This decline marks a sharper downturn compared to the 0.5% fall recorded through September and is significantly worse than analysts' forecasts of a 0.8% dip. It also marks the first sustained negative stretch in fixed investment since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, highlighting a broad deceleration in long-term capital allocation within China’s economy.

This contraction is closely tied to the persistent crisis in the real estate sector, which continues to erode investor confidence and drag down broader economic activity. With housing starts, land sales, and new project launches continuing to fall, property-related investments, a major engine of China’s economic growth for decades are no longer providing the same stimulus, resulting in a more systemic investment slowdown. The link here suggests more than mere correlation: the real estate downturn appears to be a primary driver behind the broad-based investment weakness.

Industrial output slows under dual pressure from holidays and weak demand

October’s industrial output increased 4.9% year-over-year, falling short of the anticipated 5.5% expansion and easing from 6.5% in September. The deceleration can be attributed partly to seasonal effects, including a long national holiday that curtailed manufacturing activity. However, the broader trend points to subdued domestic and external demand, with the factory sector still operating below potential.

Given the weak export performance and fragile domestic consumption, the drop in output signals a potential inflection point where manufacturers are scaling back in anticipation of lower orders, both domestically and internationally. This reflects a likely causative reaction rather than a purely seasonal trend.

Retail gains offer a sliver of hope, but momentum remains fragile

Retail sales in October rose 2.9% from a year earlier, slightly beating expectations but easing from September’s 3% gain. While consumer spending remains positive, the modest growth points to lingering caution among households, likely shaped by job insecurity and falling property values. The marginal drop in the urban unemployment rate to 5.1% from 5.2% suggests some stabilization in the labor market, but it may not be enough to spur a strong rebound in discretionary spending.

These consumption figures suggest a tentative correlation between employment trends and retail activity, though the low inflation environment may also be constraining nominal spending growth. The CPI increase of 0.2% the strongest reading since January and the first positive print since June indicates early signs of reflation, while the 1.2% rise in core CPI suggests underlying demand is slowly returning. However, the pace remains well below pre-pandemic levels, signaling that confidence has yet to fully recover.

External demand weakens as trade friction clouds export outlook

China’s export sector took a sharp hit in October, with overseas shipments falling unexpectedly for the first time in nearly two years. This downturn was primarily driven by a steep decline in exports to the U.S., reflecting escalating trade tensions that only began to ease late in the month after President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping agreed to reduce bilateral tariffs and freeze new trade restrictions for a year.

The timing of this export contraction and the trade détente supports the view that rising protectionism was a key causal factor, rather than a symptom of a broader global trade slowdown. Should the temporary trade relief hold, export performance may stabilize in coming months, but the fragility of the current arrangement leaves little room for complacency.

Despite modest gains in inflation and retail activity, China’s October economic data paints a cautious picture of a recovery under strain. The continued erosion of fixed-asset investment, especially in the property sector, underscores deep-rooted challenges that are now constraining growth even as consumer inflation turns positive and the job market stabilizes slightly. With industrial production easing and external demand dampened by geopolitical friction, the outlook remains clouded. Unless the property market stabilizes and consumer confidence rebounds more decisively, China’s economic engine may struggle to regain its pre-crisis momentum.

Source: CNBC

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Economic

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. warned that a shortage of memory may constrain car and consumer electronics production in 2026, flagging potential bottlenecks at a time major chipmakers are prioritizing business with AI accelerator linchpin Nvidia Corp.

Chinese companies are getting more cautious about placing orders with SMIC for early next year because they're uncertain about securing enough of the memory they need for products, Co-Chief Executive Officer Zhao Haijun said. Part of the uncertainty stems from projections for a surge in memory prices, reflecting robust demand from AI-related applications.

SMIC, the leading chipmaker in China for big tech firms like Huawei Technologies Co., joins Kioxia Holdings Corp. in warning of a demand-supply imbalance next year. The data center frenzy has boosted demand for the cutting-edge memory required in AI accelerators. That's led to a shortage of lower-end chips as sector leaders SK Hynix Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. prioritize supplying components to Nvidia Corp.

"Be it carmakers, smartphones or consumer electronics, everyone that uses memory is facing pressure from price hikes and supply constraints in the coming year," SMIC's Zhao told analysts on a post-earnings call on Friday. "Our customers are reluctant to place too many orders in the first quarter as they're not sure how many memory chips they can secure."

Zhao indicated that current demand outstrips SMIC's own supply capabilities. The company's capital expenditure this year will be flat to slightly higher versus the $7.33 billion spent in 2024, he said.

Still, Chinese chipmakers overall are expected to speed up capacity expansion. Chip equipment supplier ASML Holding NV has said China will account for a lower proportion of its overall revenue in 2026. But Zhao said that's because many Chinese companies placed orders for the Dutch company's lithography machines in 2024 or before.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Key Points:

· China's housing slump deepened in October as nationwide prices fell again, intensifying pressure on consumer sentiment.

· Weak retail sales and falling industrial output highlighted faltering domestic demand and growing economic headwinds.

· Mixed Chinese data left the Hang Seng Index in the red, though stimulus expectations helped limit broader market losses.

China Outlook Weakens As Housing Slump Deepens And Demand Falters_1

China's economy faced intense scrutiny on Friday, November 14, amid waning domestic consumption and a slump in external demand. October's Trump-Xi one-year trade truce failed to shift sentiment. The trade truce reduced US tariffs on Chinese goods to 47%, down marginally from 57%.

Weakening external demand has led to margin squeezes, forcing firms to cut staffing levels. Rising unemployment has eroded domestic demand, keeping deflationary pressures intact.

Housing market woes have added to the narrative, another blow for Beijing, which is looking to boost household spending with stimulus.

Housing Prices Extend Decline

Chinese housing market data showed no signs of recovery in October, potentially weighing on consumer sentiment. The House Price Index fell 2.2% year-on-year in October, matching September's drop. Economists expected house prices to decline 2%.

According to CN Wire:"Average prices fell 2.6% in October versus a 2.7% drop in September, with year-on-year declines recorded in 61 of 70 cities, the same as in September."

However, month-on-month price trends signaled further deterioration in housing market conditions. CN Wire reported:

"China's average home prices fell 0.45% month-on-month in October, slightly worse than September's 0.41% decline, with prices dropping in 64 of 70 cities compared with 63 in the previous month."

October's drop in house prices will likely weigh on household wealth and spending.

The Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index briefly dropped from 1,369 to a low of 1,365 before climbing to a high of 1,387. October's price trends suggested the need for further policy support, lifting sentiment. At the time of writing, the HSMPI was up 0.19% to 1,385.

HSMPI – 5 Minute Chart – 141125

Chinese Economic Indicators Send Mixed Signals

The larger-than-expected YoY drop in house prices coincided with falling unemployment but weakening retail sales, challenging Beijing's 5% GDP growth target.

Unemployment unexpectedly fell from 5.2% in September to 5.1% in October. A stabilization in the labor market could boost consumer sentiment, potentially reviving domestic demand. While the unemployment rate fell, private sector PMIs pointed to job cuts, highlighting uneven labor market conditions.

Meanwhile, retail sales increased 2.9% YoY in October, down from 3% in September. Crucially, retail sales have trended sharply lower since May's 6.4% YoY rise, underscoring the effects of US tariffs on the labor market, sentiment, and household spending.

CN Wire commented on weakening domestic consumption ahead of today's data, stating:

"China is facing its longest slowdown in consumption growth since its post-COVID rebound over four years ago. Retail sales are expected to rise 2.8% year-on-year in October, according to the median economic forecast, marking the fifth consecutive month of deceleration—the weakest gain in over a year. Some of this weakness is technical, due to a high comparison base from last year and one fewer working day in October 2025."

Other Chinese data signaled a loss of momentum:

· Industrial production rose 4.9% YoY in October, down sharply from 6.5% in September.

· Fixed asset investment fell 1.7% year-to-date in October, YoY, compared with a 0.5% drop in September.

These figures aligned with Citigroup economists' expectations of weaker numbers due to a high base, calendar effects, and weaker momentum.

China Outlook Weakens As Housing Slump Deepens And Demand Falters_3

Market Reaction to China's Economic Indicators

The Hang Seng Index and the AUD/USD pair reacted to the mixed data.

On Friday, November 14, the Hang Seng Index was down 0.85% to 26,843. The Index dropped to a low of 26,781 after the data release before briefly climbing to a session high of 26,844.

China Outlook Weakens As Housing Slump Deepens And Demand Falters_4

Hang Seng Index – 5 Minute Chart – 141125

In the forex markets, the Aussie dollar got a boost despite softer retail sales, supported by the unexpected drop in unemployment. AUD/USD rallied from $0.65369 to a session high of $0.65491 before easing back to $0.65484, up 0.32% at the time of writing.

AUDUSD – 5 Minute Chart – 141125

The mixed reports fueled hopes of further stimulus from Beijing to bolster the housing market and boost consumption, lifting AUD/USD and the Hang Seng Index from session lows.

Looking Ahead

Markets now face a pivotal test. The US-China trade truce will remain a market focal point as tensions simmer. An escalation in tensions could derail the Hang Seng Index and the Mainland China 2025 equity market rally.

However, further policy pledges from Beijing could overshadow the mixed data and concerns about US-China trade relations, potentially boosting demand for risk assets.