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Over the last three months, XRP’s on-chain activity has increased dramatically, with a number of network metrics approaching levels that resemble a 400% surge in comparison to their late-summer baselines.

What moves XRP forward

The total volume of payments, the number of payments made between accounts and the overall transaction throughput have all significantly increased. However, the price chart presents a far less optimistic picture, and this discrepancy is the main risk moving forward.

There is an improvement in network throughput. Daily payments usually fall into the upper end of the multi-month range, and spikes in payment volume show increasing value movement throughout the network. Chart by TradingView">

However, this momentum is not reflected in the market structure. The price of XRP is still stuck in a distinct downward channel and keeps missing declining resistance. More worrisomely, all attempts to break above the 20- and 50-day moving averages are swiftly rejected.

Moving averages sloping down

The 50-day, 100-day and 200-day major moving averages all slope downward, indicating a persistent bearish environment. The chart was momentarily distorted by a single vertical liquidation wick in October, but price action quickly re-anchored inside the broader downtrend, confirming rather than refuting structural weakness.

This is where reality and the surge narrative clash. Growing network usage frequently indicates early strength for emerging ecosystems, but XRP has shown time and time again that transaction growth by itself does not translate into market demand.

Because a large portion of the activity is driven by automated flows, arbitrage paths and institutional routing rather than speculative accumulation, the ledger processes high volumes even during times of poor price performance.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin is promoting a new mechanism to mitigate sudden spikes in transaction costs on the network.

His latest proposal outlines a trustless, on-chain prediction market designed to help users secure future gas prices and manage volatility rather than react to it.

Buterin Backs Ethereum Gas Pricing Market

On December 6, Buterin argued that Ethereum needs a market-based signal for future demand for block space.

The structure would trade exposure to the network’s Base Fee by letting participants buy or sell gas commitments tied to a future window.

According to him, the aim is to give developers and heavy users a way to lock in costs and plan even when the spot price of gas remains low.

The proposal comes at an unusual time, as gas prices are near multi-year lows.

Etherscan data shows that Ethereum’s average gas price is about 0.468 Gwei, or roughly three cents. This is because much of the network’s retail activity has shifted to cheaper Layer 2 networks like Base and Arbitrum.

Yet, Buterin argues that current tranquility breeds complacency.

He stresses that an on-chain futures curve would provide a clear signal of long-term market expectations. It would permit users to prepay for block space and lock in costs regardless of future spikes.

Industry Experts Throw in Views

Supporters see the proposal as an underappreciated pillar of Ethereum’s long-term design. They argue that a trustless gas futures market would fill a structural gap rather than introduce another DeFi novelty.

In their view, a BASEFEE market would align expectations with transparent pricing and provide the ecosystem with a shared reference point for future network conditions.

So, a liquid market for gas exposure could change this dynamic by allowing developers to buy gas insurance to cap operating costs ahead of critical events. Heavy users could also offset future fee spikes by taking the opposite market position.

Meanwhile, one industry advisor at Titan Builder noted that running this as a classic derivative market would be difficult because validators could manipulate outcomes by producing empty blocks.

He added that a delivered futures market for block space with a liquid secondary venue remains feasible. Such a structure may be enough to support public price discovery and hedging.

XRP exchange-traded funds have gathered more than $1 billion in assets only a couple of weeks after going live, a pace that many in the market say is unusually fast for new financial products. Five issuers — Bitwise, Canary, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale and Rex Osprey — launched their funds in staggered phases and still managed to pull in strong inflows within just 11 to 12 trading days. At today’s prices, the ETFs now hold about 473 million XRP, locked inside these investment vehicles.

Despite the size of the inflows, the story has barely made its way to everyday investors. Some experts say this shows how unaware most people still are of crypto ETFs, even as Wall Street moves quickly to adopt them. 

Others say interest could grow if regulatory clarity improves in the U.S., especially now that Ripple’s legal dispute has ended and new policy proposals like the Clarity Act are gaining attention.

Strong ETF Demand Meets Weak Price

Even with the rapid growth of these funds, XRP’s price has struggled. The token is fighting to stay above $2.03, with sellers consistently pushing it lower. 

In an interview with Coinpedia, Nischal Shetty, Co-founder of Shardeum, said that expecting XRP to reach double-digit levels based only on ETF demand is unrealistic. He explained that early flows into new crypto ETFs usually come from short-term traders, not long-term institutions. Larger investors, he said, look for real-world settlement volumes, reliable liquidity and clear regulation before making major allocations.

“Purely ETF-driven double-digit pricing is unrealistic. ETF access improves liquidity and distribution, but it doesn’t replace utility. Sustainable value comes from real settlement demand, enterprise adoption,consistent volumes and regulatory acceptance,” he said.

Shetty added that ETFs can improve access, but they cannot replace the utility that gives a payments token long-term value.

Michael Burry has responded to critics who continue to cite his early-2021 bearish calls, including on Bitcoin, as evidence that his current warnings should be dismissed. According to Burry, commentators and journalists, including Bloomberg’s, have repeatedly used those 2021 examples to argue that he has been "wrong again and again." Burry argues that this framing is both misleading and demonstrates a misunderstanding of how short positioning is supposed to function.

Bitcoin is tied to parabolic structure

Burry highlighted that his well-publicized caution toward Bitcoin in early 2021 was tied to what he viewed as a textbook parabolic structure. Bitcoin went on to suffer a series of sharp corrections, first in mid-2021 and then far more severely through 2022, when it declined over 70% from its peak. Chart by TradingView">

Burry’s point is that the correction he anticipated did occur, and judging the validity of a short thesis years after the fact misrepresents the nature of trading. "You really think any short seller holds those positions for 5 or 10 years?" his post argued.

Bitcoin's recovery attempt

He contrasted this with his stance during the 2023 regional banking crisis, when market sentiment turned aggressively bearish. Burry publicly stated at the time that he was not seeing evidence of genuine systemic danger and expected the situation to stabilize. The crisis ultimately resolved far more quickly than the prevailing panic suggested, reinforcing, in his view, that his critics selectively remember only the parts of his track record that fit their narrative.

Burry’s renewed comments come as Bitcoin attempts to recover from its latest drawdown. The current chart shows the asset still trading below major moving averages after a steep fall sell-off, a structure that, if anything, makes his 2021 warnings look more grounded than revisionist commentary implies.

The broader message from Burry’s post is less about victory laps and more about context: short calls are time-sensitive by design, and retroactively judging them years later, he argues, reflects storytelling, not market literacy.

More than 23.56 trillion SHIB reportedly moved in a single day, according to Shiba Inu’s on-chain data from CryptoQuant at the time of writing, which is so out of the ordinary that it practically begs for suspicion. If true, this would suggest significant internal reorganization by big holders or unheard-of selling pressure. However, the more logical explanation, a tracking error or data anomaly, is much simpler given the behavior of the chart and the rest of the market.

Routine SHIB price action

Commence with the fundamentals. With no indications of unusual volatility or liquidity shocks, SHIB’s price action appears routine. It is still trapped below all major moving averages. Expanded spreads, violent candles or, at the very least, a discernible liquidity reaction occur when trillions of tokens actually hit exchanges. That does not appear. Volume continues to be unremarkable. Price does not even react. Clearly, trillions of new sell-side supply are not being priced in by the market. Chart by TradingView">

Take a look at the exchange metrics now. Although there has been a spike in exchange inflow and outflow, it is not as great as the headline figure. On paper, the inflow and outflow totals are both enormous 24.4 trillion SHIB and 25.2 trillion, respectively, but the charts display erratic vertical jumps that are more likely to be caused by API errors, consolidation events or double-counted movements than by real market-driven transactions.

Just movement of funds?

Instead of abrupt panic selling, when both inflow and outflow print extreme values at the same time, it typically indicates internal wallet reorganization or a problem with data classification.

Exchange reserves do not move much. The active addresses do not change. The notion that tens of trillions of tokens were withdrawn or dumped in a way that affected price discovery is unsupported. Therefore, the most plausible explanation is either an internal exchange wallet reorganization, incorrectly classified as transactional flow, an indexing bug or a misreported on-chain value.

The 23.56 trillion SHIB in 24 hours figure should be regarded as a statistical outlier rather than a significant change in Shiba Inu’s market structure until it is confirmed by several analytics sources.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) ongoing price correction has been accompanied by several other negative developments that continue to grab investors’ attention. Most recently, market analyst Darkfost has observed a significant crash in Bitcoin spot trading volume, while highlighting potential long-term implications of such an event.

Binance Records $40B Loss In BTC Monthly Spot Trading 

The spot trading volume refers to the total amount of Bitcoin that is bought and sold for immediate delivery on exchanges within a specific time period. It is a key market indicator used to gauge participation, liquidity, and investor interest. According to Darkfost in an X post on December 6, the Bitcoin market, in November, experienced a major fall in spot trading volume across major crypto exchanges. This development has been attributed to the asset’s price struggles, wherein it recorded a 17.5% devaluation during this period.

On Binance, which accounts for more than half of all Bitcoin spot trading activity, spot volume fell from $198 billion in October to $156 billion in November, representing a 21% decline. The downturn was mirrored across other major exchanges, with ByBit posting a 13.5% drop, Gate.io sliding 33%, and OKX down 18%.

Interestingly, Darkfost explains that Bitcoin’s recent price action, the major negative catalyst, pales in comparison to previous corrections. However, another red reading in December could initiate a market deterioration marked by conditions such as continued selling pressure, low market confidence, and, importantly, further drops in spot activity.

A continuous decline in spot trading volume primarily mirrors a lack of market interest and is accompanied by other concerning factors, such as a weaker demand, high vulnerability to price swings, and limited support for rallies as investors prefer to sit on the sidelines. This dynamic, in turn, weighs on price growth, creating a self-reinforcing bearish loop.

Spot Trading Volume Peak Sees Consistent Regression 

In related news, Darkfost also reports that the present market cycle has featured a consistent decline in spot trading volume peaks. Notably, the chart above shows a market high of $333.57 billion on Binance in March 2024, followed by the lower peak of $246.04 billion in November 2024, and then just $198.6 billion last October.

This trend becomes even more concerning when looking at the spot-to-futures volume ratio, which currently sits at 0.23, meaning futures activity now accounts for more than 75% of overall trading. In essence, while the Bitcoin market remains active, investor enthusiasm on the spot side is fading. By contrast, traders appear increasingly willing to speculate in the futures market, likely driven by elevated uncertainty and short-term volatility.

At press time, Bitcoin trades at $89,300, reflecting a 0.21% loss in the past day.