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Cathie Wood is openly welcoming Vanguard investors to the world of Bitcoin through her ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB).

In her announcement, she has stressed that Bitcoin is a "profound technological and monetary innovation."

Vanguard's U-turn

Vanguard investors can now get exposure to Bitcoin without needing to deal with the usual complications of owning it directly (like setting up a crypto wallet or managing private keys). They can simply add the ETF to their existing brokerage accounts. 

The financial giant has reversed its long‑standing ban on cryptocurrency investment products. Starting Dec. 2, clients on Vanguard’s brokerage platform can now buy and trade regulated cryptocurrency exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds.

The permitted products include funds tied to major digital assets like Bitcoin , Ethereum , XRP, and Solana .

Vanguard is one of the largest asset managers globally, with over $11 trillion in assets under management and a client base of more than 50 million brokerage accounts.

"A new era"

In the meantime, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley has just announced that a major wealth management firm with $350 billion in assets under management (AUM) and about 10,000 financial advisors has just approved the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF ($BITB) for its clients.

Horsley claims that the cryptocurrency industry is now entering "a new era."

As Bitcoin (BTC) experienced significant volatility throughout the year, reaching new all-time highs (ATHs) before enduring sharp corrections of up to 30%, the cryptocurrency community has become increasingly polarized regarding its future direction. 

Many analysts are raising concerns about a potential bear market emerging in 2026; however, market expert Shanaka Anslem has offered a different perspective on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), questioning whether 2025 has already represented the real bear market.

A Sign Of Cycle Change

In his analysis, Anslem highlights key evidence. For the first time in history, Bitcoin breached its all-time high prior to the Halving event in April of this year, which he argues isn’t a bullish signal but rather an indication of the cycle inverting. 

According to him, 2024 should not be viewed as the beginning of a new bull run; instead, it was a period of what he calls “political repricing” as the market factored in a pro-crypto administration with President Donald Trump’s reelection. 

The characteristics of a bear market have been evident in 2025, according to Anslem. Bitcoin’s dominance has reached multi-year highs while altcoins continue to struggle, leading to quarter-after-quarter declines in their values. 

Additionally, a massive $3.5 billion in exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows occurred within just one month. This year saw a significant 29% drawdown from its October highs, paired with extreme fear readings on various sentiment indices.

Anslem insists that while the four-year Halving cycle remains relevant, its impact has evolved. With $120 billion in ETF interconnected with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) liquidity, the Halving continues to dictate BTC’s supply, but demand now aligns with broader economic narratives rather than the more crypto-specific factors.

Major Bitcoin Rally Ahead? 

What does Anslem’s “cycle inversion” theory implies for 2026? If the bear market has already transpired, masked by nominal highs, the next logical phase might be a genuine blow-off top. 

His predictions suggest Bitcoin’s price could soar to between $150,000 and $200,000, particularly as global liquidity continues to expand and directs capital toward hard assets. Anslem believes that many in the market are currently positioned for a downturn that has already occurred.

However, dissenting opinions exist. Analyst Mr. Wall Street argues that the bottom for Bitcoin has not yet arrived and won’t be realized in the coming weeks or months. 

He highlights that the critical support level has been breached, indicated by the weekly exponential moving-average (EMA50) closing below the threshold. 

He asserts that the market has entered the early stages of a substantial bear market, predicting that it will only abate once Bitcoin reaches the $54,000 to $60,000 range, which he expects might occur in the fourth quarter of 2026. 

Despite this bearish outlook, he remains cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin in the short term. He expects a potential upward movement to retest the EMA50 Weekly, which currently stands at approximately $100,000, while maintaining that mid-term targets are much lower. 

At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $90,352, which represents a 28% difference between current valuations and ATH levels. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has taken a major step toward bringing crypto into regulated U.S. markets. Acting Chair Caroline Pham has launched a pilot program that allows Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDC to be used as collateral in U.S. derivatives trading.

Alongside this, the CFTC released new guidance on tokenized collateral and removed outdated restrictions that no longer match today’s crypto market. The move comes as demand grows for clearer and more practical U.S. crypto rules.

CFTC Pilot Could Boost Institutional Crypto Adoption

Under the new pilot, approved firms can use BTC, ETH, and USDC as collateral for futures and swaps, a practice that previously lacked clear approval in the U.S. During the first three months, participating firms must submit regular reports so the CFTC can monitor market activity and risk.

The goal is to support innovation within U.S. regulation rather than pushing trading offshore, where weaker oversight has led to losses in the past.

The CFTC also said tokenized assets will not receive special treatment. Digital assets must meet the same rules and standards as traditional collateral.

Updated Guidance and Removal of Legacy Rules

To support this change, the CFTC issued new guidance on tokenized real-world assets, including digital U.S. Treasuries. It explains how firms should handle legal rights, asset valuation, custody, and operational risks when using blockchain technology.

The agency also withdrew Staff Advisory 20-34, which had limited how futures brokers could hold virtual currencies. With clearer rules now in place under the GENIUS Act, the CFTC said the advisory is outdated. Removing it gives firms more flexibility while maintaining strong risk controls.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple Set for Institutional Growth

Market analysts see this move as a potential turning point for institutional crypto adoption. Muhammad Azhar says allowing digital assets as regulated collateral could help Bitcoin and Ethereum grow within clear U.S. rules. He notes, however, that the pilot’s success depends on secure custody and how well these systems integrate with existing DeFi platforms, especially for trust-based assets like USDC.

Analyst Elfie Peacock adds that Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin deserves attention. He highlights that Ripple, one of the most regulated firms in the sector, has shown how stablecoin collateral can make derivatives markets more efficient. Partnerships like Ripple’s with Hidden Road demonstrate how compliant stablecoin settlements can operate smoothly at scale.

FAQs

It’s a new CFTC-supervised pilot that lets select futures brokers accept Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDC as margin collateral for futures and swaps, with strict reporting and risk controls during the initial phase.

Tokenized assets follow the same rules as traditional collateral, with clear expectations for custody, valuation, and legal rights.

Clear rules and approved collateral use may boost institutional confidence and expand regulated crypto market participation.

Bitcoin continued its volatile trajectory today, slipping 0.70% over the past 24 hours. The asset’s slump has raised concerns among traders.

However, some analysts argue that Bitcoin’s performance is a result of potential price manipulation, citing a recurring pattern of declines around the US market opening, as well as institutional involvement.

Internal Manipulation vs. Market Dynamics: Decoding Bitcoin’s Decline

Bitcoin has defied all bullish expectations in Q4, a period that has historically been strong for the asset. While the October 10 market crash was a major factor behind BTC’s downturn at the start of the quarter, market watchers are now questioning the persistence of this weakness.

Traders have become increasingly frustrated by Bitcoin’s lack of response to market developments. For example, yesterday, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) announced it had acquired 10,624 BTC for $962.7 million.

Yet despite this bullish news, Bitcoin is once again in the red today, down 0.70% and trading at $90,487.

On the flip side, negative developments also trigger the same sell pattern. Analyst Ash Crypto highlighted that the market continues to behave irrationally and is not responding to positive developments as it typically would.

In a separate post, Ash suggested that Bitcoin’s crash from $126,000 to $80,000 cannot be dismissed as a normal market correction. He pointed out that since the October market crash and historic liquidation:

• US equities have risen 8%, with many stocks hitting new record highs.
• Bitcoin, however, remains 29% below its pre-crash level, and any short-term rallies have been met with heavy selling.
• Roughly $500 million in liquidations occur nearly every other day, suggesting persistent forced selling.

Furthermore, another analyst pointed to Bitcoin’s weekend price action as evidence of the latest manipulation. The post revealed that the cryptocurrency briefly fell from around $89,700 to $87,700, triggering about $171 million in long liquidations.

Within hours, the move sharply reversed, with Bitcoin surging to around $91,200 and wiping out an additional $75 million in short positions.

Is Jane Street Behind Bitcoin’s Morning Dumps?

Interestingly, the market watcher also noted a clear trend: Bitcoin often experiences sharp declines around 10 a.m., after the US market opens. This pattern has been visible since early November and mirrors similar activity observed earlier in the year.

The consistency suggests a coordinated approach, rather than a random response. Bull Theory points to Jane Street, a major high-frequency trading firm, as a possible source. Jane Street reportedly holds $2.5 billion of BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, making it its fifth-largest position.

The suspected strategy is simple. High-frequency traders dump BTC at market open, push the price into liquidity pockets, then buy back at lower levels. They repeat this cycle, benefiting from predictable volatility and accumulating billions in Bitcoin.

Even so, analysts believe the impact may be temporary. Once major operators complete their accumulation phase, Bitcoin could resume an upward trajectory driven by fundamentals.

Bitcoin’s on-chain activity has shown a sharp slowdown since spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) launched. While institutional inflows into these products have accelerated, the number of active BTC addresses has declined. As Wall Street embraces BTC exposure, the network’s grassroots participation appears to be undergoing a significant transformation.

In an X post, the CEO of SwanDesk, financial analyst Jacob King, pointed out that Bitcoin active addresses have been in a steady decline since the US spot BTC ETFs launched in January 2024, and the irony is obvious.

Why Retail Participation Shows Signs Of Fatigue

 For years, BTC maximalists have pushed for Wall Street adoption, believing institutional involvement would unlock the next wave of mass usage. Instead, on-chain participation has dropped sharply as retail lost interest.

King noted that these Bitcoiners have piled into the ETF for a quick, early FOMO bump, and then bailed, leaving behind a market where the asset is increasingly traded by proxy. According to King, ETF investing kills BTC’s core principles. While investors no longer hold or control their own assets as banks do, which is the very system BTC was designed to challenge, greed always beats ideology.

Market watcher Crypto Seth has revealed that the net inflows into BlackRock and Fidelity’s spot BTC ETFs have been relatively subdued since October 10, when the largest liquidation events happened. Seth believes that this might turn into a momentum reversal soon, as the US stock market is at 1% below new highs despite retail sentiment remaining stuck in extreme fear.

Seth also pointed out that the macro backdrop is shifting in BTC’s favor. This is because the Federal Reserve ended its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program on December 1, 2025, wrapping up a multi-year effort that shaved nearly $3 trillion from the balance sheet since 2022. 

Since the US Fed rate is still at 4.00%, more interest rate cuts are on the horizon, which is higher than both Europe and China. The BlackRock iShares BTC Trust (IBIT), which was launched in January 2024, is currently the firm’s most profitable exchange-traded fund (ETF) based on annual fee revenue, despite being less than two years old.

Unlocking Bitcoin Without Compromising Its Core Principles

Bitcoin is seeing key initiatives that improve its ecosystem. Every market cycle that has promise to unlock Bitcoin for decentralized finance (DeFi), RioSwap is one of the few products built on infrastructure that was capable of unlocking it in a truly decentralized way. 

According to Mintlayer, this was powered by Mintlayer’s native HTLC architecture, as RioSwap introduces a Decentralized Exchange (DEX) that allows BTC to move directly into decentralized markets without wrapping, unbridging, and is fully in the user’s control. With the RioSwap testnet now live, Mintlayer sees this as the start of a new liquidity phase for BTC where the asset will become an active participant in the decentralized market on its own terms.

Funds that track a basket of cryptocurrencies are likely to rocket in popularity next year as investors look to get easy exposure to a broader range of digital assets, according to Bitwise’s investment chief Matt Hougan.

“Crypto index funds are going to be a big deal in 2026,” Hougan said in a note on Monday. “The market is getting more complex and the use cases are multiplying.”

He added that while the overall crypto market is poised to grow, it isn’t possible to predict which tokens will perform, so owning a fund that tracks the market is a “great place to start,” although it’s “not right for everyone.”

Many exchange-traded fund issuers, including Bitwise, offer funds that track multiple cryptocurrencies, drawing inspiration from indexes such as the S&P 500, which track the top 500 companies on US stock exchanges. 

Multi-crypto ETFs already exist, with some going live in the US earlier this year that hold crypto in proportion to each token’s market capitalization. However, these have seen relatively modest inflows as they largely hold Bitcoin (BTC), which currently dominates nearly 60% of the market, per CoinGecko.

“Buy the market” as crypto is unknowable

Hougan said that despite his experience and network of experts within crypto, he can’t say “with confidence which chain will win, or precisely how things will turn out.”

“At this stage of crypto’s development, I’d argue it’s unknowable,” he added. “Outcomes will be shaped by regulation, execution, macro conditions, the actions of a few key individuals, luck, and a hundred other variables.”

“Forecasting all of that correctly would require supernatural foresight.”

Crypto markets rallied from November 2024 to January through Donald Trump’s presidential election and inauguration and have remained elevated on his pro-crypto policies.

However, crypto has felt the negative effects of sweeping US tariffs and uncertainty over further interest rates cuts as traditional finance becomes more involved in the market.

“Given that uncertainty, my approach is simple: I buy the market,” Hougan said. “Specifically, I buy a market-cap-weighted crypto index fund.”

He added that crypto “will be far more important in 10 years than it is today,” and the market could grow up to 20 times over that time.

Hougan pointed to Securities and Exchange Commission chair Paul Atkins’ comment on Wednesday that the US financial system could embrace tokenization in a “couple of years.”

“Stablecoins will matter more. Tokenization will matter more. Bitcoin will matter more. And I think a dozen other major use cases will follow: prediction markets, decentralized finance (DeFi), privacy tech, digital identity,” Hougan said.

“I don’t want to risk picking the wrong chain,” he added. “Imagine correctly calling a market that goes up 100,000x—and still underperforming because you backed the wrong horse.”

“So I use a crypto index fund as the core of my portfolio,” Hougan said, “knowing that, however crypto evolves, I’ll own exposure to the potential winners.”