Investing.com -- BTIG has launched coverage of the homebuilding sector with a cautious outlook, highlighting selective opportunities despite challenging supply and demand dynamics expected in 2026.
The investment firm’s analysis reveals pressure on both sides of the housing market equation, with industry estimates running approximately 9% below consensus for 2026. Despite these headwinds, BTIG has identified several homebuilding stocks that present attractive investment opportunities based on their unique strategic positions and financial strengths.
According to BTIG’s research, the following homebuilders stand out in a sector searching for supply/demand equilibrium:
1. D.R. Horton
BTIG’s top pick in the homebuilding sector with a Buy rating and $186 price target. Analysts believe DHI’s spec production model, deep local market share, broad geographic footprint, and land-light balance sheet position it to drive earnings and ROE outperformance through the cycle. While 2026 is expected to be another weak year for housing demand, BTIG sees opportunities for DHI to outperform competitors and notes the company is among the most leveraged to a potential "Goldilocks" upside scenario. Its current price-to-book valuation of 1.9x is not considered cheap, but analysts believe relative outperformance and progress toward higher ROE can drive multiple expansion.
D.R. Horton announced fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results, reporting earnings of $3.04 per share which missed estimates, while its revenue of $9.68 billion surpassed expectations.
2. NVR Inc.
Assigned a Buy rating with a $9,022 price target. BTIG highlights NVR’s operating strategy that combines deep location share and vertical cost efficiencies via a production facility network with a 100% finished lot option land bank. This approach has produced industry-leading ROE and shareholder returns over the long term. Recently, ROE has compressed to 35% due to cash buildup on the balance sheet, which BTIG views as an opportunity. Analysts believe deploying this excess cash would improve ROE, potentially leading to multiple expansion and a higher stock price.
In recent news, NVR, Inc. reported third-quarter earnings of $112.33 per diluted share and revenue of $2.56 billion, with both figures exceeding analyst expectations.
3. Millrose Properties
Initiated with a Buy rating and $35 price target. MRP is a land banking company spun out from Lennar in February 2025. BTIG views MRP as filling a gap in the homebuilding value chain as a land partner with a national footprint and access to permanent capital. The company has already signed up 12 builders and deployed $1.8 billion of invested capital outside of its Lennar relationship. Trading at 0.86x third-quarter 2025 tangible book value per share, BTIG believes the market underappreciates MRP’s accretive growth opportunity.
Millrose Properties reported third-quarter 2025 revenue of $179.26 million, which surpassed forecasts. Following the results, Freedom Capital Markets raised its price target on the company to $40.
4. BrightView Holdings, Inc.
Covered with a Buy rating and $15 price target. BTIG notes that new management has streamlined the business and driven margin improvement, with further expansion likely ahead. While revenue has declined for the past two years, analysts believe BV has multiple levers to pull for organic revenue growth. BTIG expects 2026 to be a year of both margin expansion and revenue growth, potentially leading to multiple expansion.
BrightView Holdings announced fourth-quarter 2025 results that fell short of analyst expectations for both earnings per share and revenue. Subsequently, Jefferies lowered its price target on the company to $20, though it maintained a Buy rating.
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