BTC Price to Fill $117K CME Gap? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin has a new dip target as the week begins with BTC price action targeting all-time highs. Will bulls end up defending $117,000?

Bitcoin starts a new week in an exciting place as price action knocks on new all-time highs.

Bitcoin surges to $122,000, the latest sign that price discovery is around the corner.

Dip discussions focus on the weekend’s CME gap, which offered $117,000 as a retracement target.

CPI and PPI are due this week as markets cement bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month.

USDT transactions from whales suggest a lack of interest in profit-booking.

A red Coinbase Premium spells potential problems for Bitcoin during the upcoming US trading sessions.

Bitcoin traders assess $122,000 weekend surge

Bitcoin price action wasted no time boosting the bulls after the weekly close.

A swift surge took BTC/USD beyond $122,000, and local highs of $122,312 on Bitstamp came before a retracement began, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView. BTC Price to Fill $117K CME Gap? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_1

BTC Price to Fill $117K CME Gap? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_1

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

In doing so, Bitcoin liquidated over $100 million in short positions as it took out a wall of liquidity just below all-time highs.

Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass now shows resistance being added at $123,000 and above. BTC Price to Fill $117K CME Gap? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_2

BTC Price to Fill $117K CME Gap? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_2

BTC liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Reacting, market participants were relieved but cautious. BTC/USD, they argued, could well trend back down to consolidate gains before attacking all-time highs.

“Bitcoin looks great, almost a new all-time high. However, it’s a weekend move,” crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe wrote in a post on X Monday.

“I would assume we'll see some tests on lower levels before we'll continue. Such a downwards test = violent move on Altcoins = buy the dip season.”BTC/USDT four-hour chart with RSI data. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Eyeing overall leverage trends, meanwhile, trader BitBull had a bullish signal that should extend far beyond the current battle for price discovery.

The ratio of leveraged futures to spot buying is circling lows not seen since the pit of Bitcoin’s last bear market in late 2022.

“That’s a rare signal,” he summarised.

“It means this rally isn’t being propped up by leveraged longs that can get wiped out overnight. It’s being driven by spot demand, the kind that tends to hold through volatility.” BTC Price to Fill $117K CME Gap? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_4

BTC Price to Fill $117K CME Gap? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_4

Bitcoin futures to spot ratio. Source: BitBull/X

All eyes on the new Bitcoin CME gap

When it comes to a BTC price dip, market participants have one thing on their mind.

Don’t invest unless you’re prepared to lose all the money you invest. This is a high-risk investment and you should not expect to be protected if something goes wrong.

The weekend’s move up has created a new “gap” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures, and observers are keenly watching for signs that it will get “filled.” BTC Price to Fill $117K CME Gap? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_5

BTC Price to Fill $117K CME Gap? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_5

CME gaps are a classic feature of the Bitcoin trading landscape, and recently, price has circled back up or down as required to fill them, often in days or even hours.

“Could see a quick fill somewhere this week — something to keep in mind,” trader Jelle acknowledged, echoing sentiment from across the trading community. BTC Price to Fill $117K CME Gap? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_6

BTC Price to Fill $117K CME Gap? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_6

CME Bitcoin futures one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Filling the latest gap completely would take BTC/USD back to just above $117,200, a level already key as a resistance/support flip zone.

On Sunday, trader and analyst Rekt Capital described the upcoming weekly close as “decisive” as it determined the fate of the $117,200 mark.

Last week, Rekt Capital focused on reclaiming that level as key to the overall BTC price recovery in a “cycle of downside deviations.” BTC Price to Fill $117K CME Gap? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_7

BTC Price to Fill $117K CME Gap? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_7

BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

CPI headlines “crucial” US macro data week

The July prints of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are due this week, and markets are keen for policy signals.

Interest rates remain on the agenda for risk-asset traders amid continued pressure to act on the Federal Reserve from President Donald Trump.

“This week’s inflation data will be crucial as markets look ahead to the September Fed meeting,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter told X followers. BTC Price to Fill $117K CME Gap? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_8

BTC Price to Fill $117K CME Gap? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_8

Fed target rate probabilities for September FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group

Current data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed markets pricing in a rate cut by the Fed next month, with almost 90% odds, contrasting with the 57% figure from a month ago.

CPI itself is expected to come in slightly higher than last month, something that will lend even more weight to a surprise cooling, said BitBull.

“If CPI comes in lower than expected, the September rate cut will be confirmed. This will help risk-on assets rally even more,” he said in an X post Monday, calling the data release the week’s “biggest crypto event.”

“In case CPI comes in higher than expected, rate cut probability will go down along with crypto prices. Given that the unemployment rate has been going up lately, CPI is expected to come lower, which will be good for the markets.”

Various senior Fed officials will take to the stage alongside the data, potentially shedding further light on the mood.

Whales hold off on selling BTC

For onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, one altcoin blockchain is worth watching when it comes to Bitcoin price reversal signals.

In one of its Quicktake blog posts on Monday, contributor Amr Taha suggested that large transfers of stablecoin Tether on Tron have coincided with BTC/USD corrections.

“When $10M+ transactions exceed $5B in a day, it often signals large-scale profit-taking in Bitcoin,” he said.

A chart shows daily wallet balance changes for TRC-20 USDT wallets, with transactions worth $10 million or more of particular interest, as these are thought to belong to whales. BTC Price to Fill $117K CME Gap? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_9

BTC Price to Fill $117K CME Gap? 5 Things to Know in Bitcoin This Week_9

USDT TRC-20 daily wallet balance change data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

Taha offers two examples of the process at work. On July 16 and July 23, spikes in whale USDT transactions preceded Bitcoin price corrections of 4.5% and 3.8%, respectively.

Now, however, whales have yet to develop an appetite to reduce risk.

“Large USDT movements can serve as an early warning for BTC corrections,” Taha concluded.

“Recent data indicates that the lack of $10M+ transactions suggests whales are not cashing out into USDT.”

“Pump and dump” fears over red Coinbase Premium

Concerns over the strength of the BTC price breakout are already going public.

For fellow CryptoQuant contributor J. A. Maartunn, a potential problem centered on the largest US exchange, Coinbase.

The Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the difference in BTC prices between the Coinbase BTC/USD and Binance BTC/USDT pairs, is back in negative territory.

“Coinbase Pump & Dump?” he queried on X.

“Price jumped from $118K to $122K earlier today as investors piled in. But the Coinbase Premium Index flipped red right after.”Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index. Source: CryptoQuant

A “red” Premium suggests a lack of sustained interest from Coinbase users, putting more pressure on the start of US TradFi trading hours to support higher prices.

Trader Roman, staying cautious as the market gained, stressed that a lack of trading volume had bearish implications for an emerging boom in the largest altcoin, Ether.

As Cointelegraph reported, ETH/USD hit its highest levels since late 2021 over the weekend.

“Great to see a break of large resistance but 2 issues I see are bear divs and low volume,” Roman told X followers in one of his latest posts.

“High Volume ALWAYS validates breakouts & I don’t see it here. Wouldn’t surprise me if we went sideways/slight down before up.”ETH/USD one-hour chart with volume data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Source: Cointelegraph

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