Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) Stock Trades Down, Here Is Why

What Happened?

Shares of restaurant company Bloomin’ Brands jumped 3.6% in the afternoon session after positive sentiment lifted the casual dining sector, highlighted by a significant analyst upgrade for competitor Brinker International (EAT). 

The positive mood was sparked when UBS upgraded peer company Brinker International from a "Neutral" rating to a "Buy" and raised its price target. This action suggested growing confidence in the sit-down dining industry. Broader optimism was also present in the restaurant sector, as a survey of industry leaders showed that 82 percent expected growth to improve or remain stable in 2026 despite labor and economic pressures.

After the initial pop the shares cooled down to $6.70, up 3.3% from previous close.

What Is The Market Telling Us

Bloomin' Brands’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 47 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.

The previous big move we wrote about was 20 days ago when the stock gained 3.7% on the news that Freedom Capital Markets initiated coverage on the company with a Buy rating and a $10.00 price target. The price target suggested a potential 43% upside from the stock's price at the time of the report. The research firm believed Bloomin' Brands was in the early stages of a turnaround led by its Outback Steakhouse brand. This optimism was based on new leadership and several sales initiatives. These plans included improvements to steak quality, enhancements to the service model, and restaurant remodels, all aimed at driving growth.

Bloomin' Brands is up 4.9% since the beginning of the year, but at $6.70 per share, it is still trading 48.1% below its 52-week high of $12.89 from January 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Bloomin' Brands’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $330.13.

Looking back on sit-down dining stocks’ Q3 earnings, we examine this quarter’s best and worst performers, including Denny's and its peers.

Sit-down restaurants offer a complete dining experience with table service. These establishments span various cuisines and are renowned for their warm hospitality and welcoming ambiance, making them perfect for family gatherings, special occasions, or simply unwinding. Their extensive menus range from appetizers to indulgent desserts and wines and cocktails. This space is extremely fragmented and competition includes everything from publicly-traded companies owning multiple chains to single-location mom-and-pop restaurants.

The 12 sit-down dining stocks we track reported a mixed Q3. As a group, revenues were in line with analysts’ consensus estimates.

Luckily, sit-down dining stocks have performed well with share prices up 10.2% on average since the latest earnings results.

Slowest Q3: Denny's

Open around the clock, Denny’s is a chain of diner restaurants serving breakfast and traditional American fare.

Denny's reported revenues of $113.2 million, up 1.3% year on year. This print fell short of analysts’ expectations by 3.2%. Overall, it was a disappointing quarter for the company with a significant miss of analysts’ revenue and EBITDA estimates.

Kelli Valade, Chief Executive Officer, stated, "Our third quarter progress on strategic initiatives demonstrates our ability to remain agile and focused on what is within our control amid a choppy industry backdrop. These achievements are the direct result of our incredible teams and franchisees maintaining their unwavering commitment to our brands and our guests."

Denny's delivered the weakest performance against analyst estimates of the whole group. Interestingly, the stock is up 51.1% since reporting and currently trades at $6.21.

Read our full report on Denny's here, it’s free for active Edge members.

Best Q3: Bloomin' Brands

Owner of the iconic Australian-themed Outback Steakhouse, Bloomin’ Brands is a leading American restaurant company that owns and operates a portfolio of popular restaurant brands.

Bloomin' Brands reported revenues of $928.8 million, down 10.6% year on year, outperforming analysts’ expectations by 2.7%. The business had a stunning quarter with a beat of analysts’ EPS and EBITDA estimates.

Although it had a fine quarter compared to its peers, the market seems unhappy with the results as the stock is down 12.4% since reporting. It currently trades at $6.33.

Dine Brands

Operating a franchise model, Dine Brands is a casual restaurant chain that owns the Applebee’s and IHOP banners.

Dine Brands reported revenues of $216.2 million, up 10.8% year on year, falling short of analysts’ expectations by 1.7%. It was a softer quarter as it posted a significant miss of analysts’ EBITDA and EPS estimates.

Interestingly, the stock is up 34.1% since the results and currently trades at $32.98.

Read our full analysis of Dine Brands’s results here.

First Watch

Based on a nautical reference to the first work shift aboard a ship, First Watch is a chain of breakfast and brunch restaurants whose menu is heavily-focused on eggs and griddle items such as pancakes.

First Watch reported revenues of $316 million, up 25.6% year on year. This number beat analysts’ expectations by 1.9%. It was a very strong quarter as it also recorded a solid beat of analysts’ same-store sales and EBITDA estimates.

First Watch pulled off the fastest revenue growth among its peers. The stock is down 2% since reporting and currently trades at $15.54.

Read our full, actionable report on First Watch here, it’s free for active Edge members.

Texas Roadhouse

With locations often featuring Western-inspired decor, Texas Roadhouse is an American restaurant chain specializing in Southern-style cuisine and steaks.

Texas Roadhouse reported revenues of $1.44 billion, up 12.8% year on year. This result topped analysts’ expectations by 0.7%. Aside from that, it was a mixed quarter as it also logged an impressive beat of analysts’ same-store sales estimates but a miss of analysts’ EBITDA estimates.

The stock is up 5.2% since reporting and currently trades at $169.04.

Read our full, actionable report on Texas Roadhouse here, it’s free for active Edge members.

As the Q3 earnings season wraps, let’s dig into this quarter’s best and worst performers in the sit-down dining industry, including Texas Roadhouse and its peers.

Sit-down restaurants offer a complete dining experience with table service. These establishments span various cuisines and are renowned for their warm hospitality and welcoming ambiance, making them perfect for family gatherings, special occasions, or simply unwinding. Their extensive menus range from appetizers to indulgent desserts and wines and cocktails. This space is extremely fragmented and competition includes everything from publicly-traded companies owning multiple chains to single-location mom-and-pop restaurants.

The 13 sit-down dining stocks we track reported a mixed Q3. As a group, revenues were in line with analysts’ consensus estimates.

Thankfully, share prices of the companies have been resilient as they are up 5.9% on average since the latest earnings results.

Texas Roadhouse

With locations often featuring Western-inspired decor, Texas Roadhouse is an American restaurant chain specializing in Southern-style cuisine and steaks.

Texas Roadhouse reported revenues of $1.44 billion, up 12.8% year on year. This print exceeded analysts’ expectations by 0.7%. Despite the top-line beat, it was still a mixed quarter for the company with an impressive beat of analysts’ same-store sales estimates but a miss of analysts’ EBITDA estimates.

Jerry Morgan, Chief Executive Officer of Texas Roadhouse, Inc., commented, “Our operators continued to drive strong traffic this quarter, which helped offset the impact of continued commodity inflation. While the duration of these inflationary pressures remains uncertain, we are committed to running our business with a long-term focus and maintaining our value proposition.”

Interestingly, the stock is up 3.3% since reporting and currently trades at $165.96.

Best Q3: Bloomin' Brands

Owner of the iconic Australian-themed Outback Steakhouse, Bloomin’ Brands is a leading American restaurant company that owns and operates a portfolio of popular restaurant brands.

Bloomin' Brands reported revenues of $928.8 million, down 10.6% year on year, outperforming analysts’ expectations by 2.7%. The business had a stunning quarter with a beat of analysts’ EPS estimates and a solid beat of analysts’ EBITDA estimates.

Although it had a fine quarter compared its peers, the market seems unhappy with the results as the stock is down 13% since reporting. It currently trades at $6.29.

Slowest Q3: Denny's

Open around the clock, Denny’s is a chain of diner restaurants serving breakfast and traditional American fare.

Denny's reported revenues of $113.2 million, up 1.3% year on year, falling short of analysts’ expectations by 3.2%. It was a disappointing quarter as it posted a significant miss of analysts’ revenue estimates and a miss of analysts’ EBITDA estimates.

Interestingly, the stock is up 50.8% since the results and currently trades at $6.20.

Read our full analysis of Denny’s results here.

Darden

Founded in 1968 as Red Lobster, Darden is a leading American restaurant company that owns and operates a portfolio of popular restaurant brands.

Darden reported revenues of $3.10 billion, up 7.3% year on year. This number surpassed analysts’ expectations by 1%. Overall, it was a strong quarter as it also logged a solid beat of analysts’ same-store sales estimates and a narrow beat of analysts’ revenue estimates.

The stock is down 2.9% since reporting and currently trades at $184.12.

Read our full, actionable report on Darden here, it’s free for active Edge members.

Brinker International

Founded by Norman Brinker in Dallas, Brinker International is a casual restaurant chain that operates the Chili’s, Maggiano’s Little Italy, and It’s Just Wings banners.

Brinker International reported revenues of $1.35 billion, up 18.5% year on year. This result topped analysts’ expectations by 1.3%. More broadly, it was a satisfactory quarter as it also produced an impressive beat of analysts’ same-store sales estimates but full-year revenue guidance slightly missing analysts’ expectations.

Brinker International had the weakest full-year guidance update among its peers. The stock is up 15.6% since reporting and currently trades at $143.59.

Read our full, actionable report on Brinker International here, it’s free for active Edge members.

Looking back on sit-down dining stocks’ Q3 earnings, we examine this quarter’s best and worst performers, including Cracker Barrel and its peers.

Sit-down restaurants offer a complete dining experience with table service. These establishments span various cuisines and are renowned for their warm hospitality and welcoming ambiance, making them perfect for family gatherings, special occasions, or simply unwinding. Their extensive menus range from appetizers to indulgent desserts and wines and cocktails. This space is extremely fragmented and competition includes everything from publicly-traded companies owning multiple chains to single-location mom-and-pop restaurants.

The 13 sit-down dining stocks we track reported a mixed Q3. As a group, revenues were in line with analysts’ consensus estimates.

Thankfully, share prices of the companies have been resilient as they are up 9.7% on average since the latest earnings results.

Cracker Barrel

Known for its country-themed food and merchandise, Cracker Barrel is a beloved American restaurant and retail chain that celebrates the warmth and charm of Southern hospitality.

Cracker Barrel reported revenues of $797.2 million, down 5.7% year on year. This print was in line with analysts’ expectations, but overall, it was a softer quarter for the company with full-year revenue and EBITDA guidance missing analysts’ expectations significantly.

Cracker Barrel President and Chief Executive Officer Julie Masino said, "First quarter results were below our expectations amid unique and ongoing headwinds. We have adjusted our operational initiatives, menu, and marketing to ensure we are consistently delivering delicious food and exceptional experiences. Additionally, we are executing a variety of cost savings initiatives to bolster our financial performance. Although our recovery will take time, our teams are more committed than ever, and we are confident that we will regain momentum."

Unsurprisingly, the stock is down 2.5% since reporting and currently trades at $26.26.

Read our full report on Cracker Barrel here, it’s free for active Edge members.

Best Q3: Bloomin' Brands

Owner of the iconic Australian-themed Outback Steakhouse, Bloomin’ Brands is a leading American restaurant company that owns and operates a portfolio of popular restaurant brands.

Bloomin' Brands reported revenues of $928.8 million, down 10.6% year on year, outperforming analysts’ expectations by 2.7%. The business had a stunning quarter with a beat of analysts’ EPS and EBITDA estimates.

Although it had a fine quarter compared its peers, the market seems unhappy with the results as the stock is down 9.3% since reporting. It currently trades at $6.55.

Denny's

Open around the clock, Denny’s is a chain of diner restaurants serving breakfast and traditional American fare.

Denny's reported revenues of $113.2 million, up 1.3% year on year, falling short of analysts’ expectations by 3.2%. It was a disappointing quarter as it posted a significant miss of analysts’ revenue estimates and a miss of analysts’ EBITDA estimates.

Interestingly, the stock is up 50.9% since the results and currently trades at $6.20.

Read our full analysis of Denny’s results here.

The Cheesecake Factory

Celebrated for its delicious (and free) brown bread, gigantic portions, and delectable desserts, Cheesecake Factory is an iconic American restaurant chain that also owns and operates a portfolio of separate restaurant brands.

The Cheesecake Factory reported revenues of $907.2 million, up 4.8% year on year. This number missed analysts’ expectations by 0.5%. Zooming out, it was a mixed quarter as it also produced a beat of analysts’ EPS estimates but a slight miss of analysts’ same-store sales estimates.

The stock is down 5.2% since reporting and currently trades at $51.53.

Read our full, actionable report on The Cheesecake Factory here, it’s free for active Edge members.

Dine Brands

Operating a franchise model, Dine Brands is a casual restaurant chain that owns the Applebee’s and IHOP banners.

Dine Brands reported revenues of $216.2 million, up 10.8% year on year. This result came in 1.7% below analysts' expectations. Overall, it was a softer quarter as it also recorded a significant miss of analysts’ EBITDA estimates and a significant miss of analysts’ EPS estimates.

The stock is up 32.9% since reporting and currently trades at $32.70.

Read our full, actionable report on Dine Brands here, it’s free for active Edge members.

What Happened?

Shares of restaurant company Bloomin’ Brands jumped 3.7% in the afternoon session after Freedom Capital Markets initiated coverage on the company with a Buy rating and a $10.00 price target. 

The price target suggested a potential 43% upside from the stock's price at the time of the report. The research firm believed Bloomin' Brands was in the early stages of a turnaround led by its Outback Steakhouse brand. This optimism was based on new leadership and several sales initiatives. These plans included improvements to steak quality, enhancements to the service model, and restaurant remodels, all aimed at driving growth.

After the initial pop the shares cooled down to $7.02, up 3.1% from previous close.

What Is The Market Telling Us

Bloomin' Brands’s shares are extremely volatile and have had 48 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.

The biggest move we wrote about over the last year was 4 months ago when the stock dropped 27.6% on the news that the company reported declining profit margins and slashed its full-year earnings forecast, citing rising costs. 

While second-quarter revenue held steady at $1 billion, profitability eroded due to higher expenses for labor, commodities, and operations. The company's restaurant-level operating margin tightened to 12.0% from 14.0% a year earlier, a key metric that investors watched closely. The outlook particularly worried investors. Bloomin' Brands lowered its full-year earnings per share guidance to a range of $1.00 to $1.10, down from a prior outlook of $1.20 to $1.40. Furthermore, the company projected a loss for the upcoming third quarter, a sharp contrast to analyst expectations for a profit.

Bloomin' Brands is down 41.3% since the beginning of the year, and at $7.02 per share, it is trading 45.5% below its 52-week high of $12.89 from January 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Bloomin' Brands’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $374.80.