Bitcoin’s 15% Weekly Rout Is Just The First Leg Down, Galaxy’s Alex Thorn Warns

Stocktwits

Galaxy Digital Inc. Class A Common Stock

As Bitcoin saw a 2024-level price dip, Alex Thorn, the Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Digital (GLXY), has warned that the latest sell-off should not be considered as short-term noise on Monday.

According to a research note by Galaxy Digital, the market is being driven toward lower prices and longer-term support levels by a combination of on-chain weakness, broken technical levels, macro uncertainty, and a lack of short-term catalysts.

He also added that the selling pressure increased throughout the weekend, causing the apex cryptocurrency to drop 15% between Wednesday, January 28, and Saturday, January 31.

A 10% decline on Saturday alone resulted in over $2 billion in long liquidations across futures markets. BTCUSD briefly fell 10% below the average cost basis of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, estimated at around $84,000, during the sell-off, trading as low as $75,644. Prices occasionally fell below Strategy's average cost basis of $76,037, resulting in a paper loss of almost $1 billion.

Bitcoin Historical Pattern Signals Risk Of More Drawdown

According to Thorn, 46% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin is currently held at a loss, and the cryptocurrency nearly reached its one-year low of $74,420, set during the April 2025 "Tariff Tantrum." Additionally, he highlighted a noteworthy technical signal that has flashed for the first time since 2018. Bitcoin ended January with four consecutive red monthly candles.

Bitcoin has only tanked once, except in 2017, when it fell about 40% from its all-time high. In the past, these drawdowns have often been severe, with price drops of 50% or more over three months.

Thorn suggested that if Bitcoin dropped 50% from its most recent peak, it would land in the $63,000 range, in line with historical patterns. With Bitcoin trading at around $77,000, Thorn notes that it is already 38% below its all-time high of $126,296. This was the first time since early 2024 that it had fallen below the previous cycle peak.

He also pointed out a huge "supply gap" on-chain between the ranges $82,000 and $70,000, where relatively few coins last changed hands. Thorn claimed that, because there has been a lack of buying in that range, it's more likely that Bitcoin will decline in the near future to gauge demand at those levels.

Bitcoin Could Go As Low As $58K

He identified $70,000 as a reasonable short-term downside target for now, with greater risk to longer-term support levels, including the realized price of around $56,000 and the 200-week moving average (MA) of around $58,000. Thorn indicated that Bitcoin fell below its 50-week moving average in November of last year. In past bull markets, similar breaks have led prices back toward the 200-week MA.

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $78,303.25, up 3.4% in the last 24 hours. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around Bitcoin improved from ‘extremely bearish’ to ‘bearish’ territory. However, chatter remained at ‘extremely high’ levels over the past day.

Bitcoin’s ‘Debasement’ Narrative Is Dead

Thorn also claimed that even though selling pressure has eased a bit, there is still little evidence of whales or long-term holders accumulating more, even though long-term holders have started to slow down their profit-taking. He also said that Bitcoin's failure to trade like gold and silver has made its story as a macro "debasement hedge" less convincing.

Thorn noted that Bitcoin is currently 7.3% below its ETF cost basis, after falling as much as 10% on January 31, and that the past two weeks have been the second- and third-worst on record for Bitcoin ETFs.

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Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn Sees Market Structure Bill As ‘Bullish Catalyst’

Stocktwits

Galaxy Digital Inc. Class A Common Stock

-8.46%

Galaxy Digital (GLXY) Research Director Alex Thorn said passage of a U.S. crypto market structure bill could act as a catalyst for higher crypto prices.

In an X post earlier this month, Thorn said that the Congress’s effort to overhaul crypto regulation has “shifted to overdrive,” pointing to scheduled markups in both the Senate Banking and the Senate Agriculture Committees. He wrote that enactment of a bipartisan bill that “clearly defines token classifications, delineates regulatory jurisdictions, and protects developers and non-custodial protocols” would be a “major bullish catalyst for crypto adoption.”

Galaxy (GLXY) closed at $34.31 on Friday. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around Galaxy Digital remained in ‘extremely bullish’ territory, accompanied by’extremely high’ chatter levels over the past day.

Key Policy Disputes

According to Thorn, the negotiations have expanded beyond basic market structure questions into what he described as a “Christmas tree bill,” with additional items attached.

He identified several unresolved issues, including how decentralized finance should be regulated, whether non-custodial developers should be exempt from anti-money-laundering (AML) and registration requirements, how yield from stablecoin reserves should be handled, and the scope of the Treasury Department’s sanction authority.

Thorn noted that a successful vote would likely require all Republican members and at least two Democrats voting in favor, adding that a “strong bipartisan vote” would improve the bill’s chances of reaching the president’s desk.

The Senate Banking Committee was scheduled to debate amendments on the market structure bill last Thursday. However, it has been postponed, and the final vote has not yet been scheduled.

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Eli Lilly, Nvidia among market cap stock movers on Thursday

Investing.com

Thursday’s market has seen swings in various stocks based on news and other factors. Today, stocks like Eli Lilly and Nvidia are showing significant movements. Below are highlights of some of the biggest stock movers, from mega-caps to small caps.

Mega-Cap Movers ($200B+ Market Cap)

Eli Lilly (LLY); FDA delays reviews of Sanofi’s Tzield and Disc Medicine’s bitopertin -3.73%
Applied Materials (AMAT); RBC Capital initiates Applied Materials stock with Outperform rating +7.33%
Lam Research (LRCX); RBC Capital initiates Lam Research stock with Outperform rating +5.52%
Morgan Stanley (MS) +5.7%
Advanced Micro Devices (; RBC Capital initiates AMD stock coverage with Sector Perform rating +5.38%
Goldman Sachs Group (GS) +4.82%
Nvidia (NVDA); RBC Capital initiates Nvidia stock with Outperform rating, $240 target +3.4%
Micron Technology (MU); Micron Technology stock initiated at Outperform by RBC on AI demand +2.46%
Salesforce (CRM) -2.54%

Large-Cap Stock Movers ($10B-$200B Market Cap)

Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR) +15.29%
Penumbra (PEN); Penumbra reports preliminary Q4 revenue growth of over 21% +12.09%
Entegris (ENTG); Entegris stock rating upgraded by UBS on expected technology inflections +10.91%
Talen Energy (TLN) +10.67%
MKS Instruments (MKSI) +10.2%
Nanometrics (ONTO) +9.46%
CoreWeave (CRWV) +9.38%
Kla-tencor (KLAC); KLA stock initiated at Sector Perform by RBC Capital with $1,550 target +8.69%
Reddit (RDDT) -9.16%
Regencell Bioscience Holdings (RGC) -12.71%

Mid-Cap Stock Movers ($2B-$10B Market Cap)

NantKwest (IBRX); ImmunityBio reports 700% annual revenue growth for cancer drug Anktiva +29.97%
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY); Galaxy announces initial closing of debut tokenized CLO at $75 million +16.36%
Erasca (ERAS) +12.76%
Fluence Energy (FLNC) +13.82%
StubHub (STUB) +14.25%
Camtek (CAMT) +11.1%
Applied Opt (AAOI) +11.63%
Calix (CALX) +10.12%
Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure (SEI) +8.12%
The Chefs Warehouse (CHEF) +8.74%

Small-Cap Stock Movers ($300M-$2B Market Cap)

Ambitions Enterprise Management (AHMA) +73.59%
AXT Inc (AXTI) +18.73%
Armada Acquisition I (RZLV) +16.71%
Burning Rock Biotech (BNR) +16.41%
TryHard Holdings (THH) -52.25%
Fast Acquisition Corp II (FBYD) -16.98%
Diginex (DGNX) -17.48%
Caledonia Mining (CMCL) -17.31%
Aimei Health Tech (AFJK) -14.06%
Oxygen Biotherapies (TENX) -11.99%

For real-time, market-moving news join Investing Pro.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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Galaxy Digital Climbs on Texas Data-Center Expansion Approval, Tokenized CLO Issuance

Dow Jones Newswires

Galaxy Digital Inc. Class A Common Stock

-8.46%

By Elias Schisgall

Shares of Galaxy Digital rose after the company said it received approval to expand its data-center campus in West Texas and it issued a tokenized collateralized loan obligation.

Shares were up 12%, to $31.56, midday Thursday. The stock has risen 62% in the past year.

The data-center-infrastructure and digital-assets company said Thursday that it got approval from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas to expand its Helios data-center campus to add 830 megawatts of computing capacity after completing a Large Load Interconnection Study.

The company said it remains on track to deliver initial power early this year, adding that the approval expands its development runway.

"Securing this additional 830 MW approval from ERCOT is a watershed moment for Galaxy and affirms our position as an operator capable of executing hyperscale AI data center development," Galaxy Chief Executive Officer Mike Novogratz said.

The company said it is considering additional power and land opportunities, both in Texas and outside the state.

Galaxy also said Thursday that it had closed the issuance of Galaxy CLO 2025-1, the company's first issuance of a tokenized collateralized loan obligation.

The CLO, which is tokenized on the Avalanche blockchain, would be used to finance an uncommitted credit facility to crypto lending platform Arch Lending. The company said it has financed $75 million so far, and that the CLO may scale up to $200 million.

The transaction closed with a $50 million anchor allocation from Grove, a credit-infrastructure protocol within the Sky ecosystem.

Write to Elias Schisgall at elias.schisgall@wsj.com

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Canada Net Change Percentage Gainers & Losers

Dow Jones Newswires

Galaxy Digital Inc. Class A Common Stock

Titan Mining Corporation

-5.36%

 
                              GAINERS 
 
COMPANY                   SYMBOL      LAST   CHANGE   PERCENT        VOLUME 
-------                   ------      ----   ------   -------        ------ 
Titanium Transportation     TTNM      2.18     0.60     37.97       525,897 
Titan Mining                  TI      5.61     1.22     27.68       900,665 
Lucara Diamond               LUC     0.255     0.06     27.50     4,473,779 
Conifex Timber               CFF      0.15     0.02     15.38       396,007 
Novo Resources               NVO      0.16     0.02     14.29       798,833 
Haivision Systems            HAI      6.45     0.76     13.36       162,053 
Galaxy Digital              GLXY     43.83     4.71     12.04       739,565 
NextSource Materials        NEXT      0.53     0.06     11.58       245,009 
Enthusiast Gaming Hldgs     EGLX      0.05     0.01     11.11        24,340 
Profound Medical             PRN     11.71     0.99      9.24        16,989 
 
                              LOSERS 
 
COMPANY                   SYMBOL      LAST   CHANGE   PERCENT        VOLUME 
-------                   ------      ----   ------   -------        ------ 
Belo Sun Mining              BSX      0.47    -0.25    -34.72     4,650,093 
Bengal Energy                BNG      0.01    -0.01    -33.33        26,836 
Velan                        VLN     14.95    -3.84    -20.44       153,528 
Corus Entertainment Cl B   CJR.B     0.035    -0.01    -12.50       249,860 
Aya Gold & Silver            AYA     22.33    -1.85     -7.65     2,318,877 
Satellos Bioscience         MSCL      0.88    -0.07     -7.37       102,631 
Galiano Gold                 GAU      3.77    -0.29     -7.14       338,418 
Alamos Gold                  AGI     55.63    -4.05     -6.79       735,050 
iFabric                      IFA      1.80    -0.13     -6.74         4,962 
Avicanna                    AVCN     0.215    -0.02     -6.52       110,000 
 
 
Only includes stocks with at least 1,000 shares traded today. 
 
Data are delayed at least 15 minutes. 
 
Source: Dow Jones Market Data

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GLXY Stock Rallied 10% Today – What Are The Two Factors At Play?

Stocktwits

Galaxy Digital Inc. Class A Common Stock

-8.46%

Galaxy Digital Inc. (GLXY) stock jumped 10% on Thursday as investors reacted to two major developments, including an approval for an additional 830 megawatts (MW) of power at its Helios data center campus in Texas, positioning the company for significant expansion in AI and high-performance computing infrastructure.

The stock is on track to close in the green for a fourth successive session. GLXY was also among the top trending tickers on Stocktwits at the time of writing.

ERCOT Approval

Galaxy said that the approval by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) effectively doubles the data center’s previously approved power capacity, taking it to over 1.6 gigawatts (GW).

Galaxy signed a service agreement with AEP Texas for the new capacity, with Wind Energy Transmission Texas (WETT) serving as the transmission interconnection provider.

The company said that construction is underway under the company’s long-term lease with CoreWeave, with initial power delivery expected in early 2026. Galaxy added that it is exploring additional power and land opportunities in Texas and beyond.

Tokenized CLO Execution

In a separate release, the company announced the completion of its first-ever tokenized collateralized loan obligation (CLO), Galaxy CLO 2025-1, on the Avalanche blockchain platform.

The CLO supports a flexible credit line for Arch Lending, a crypto-backed consumer loan platform. It gradually buys loans backed by Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other crypto assets, and can grow up to $200 million as more loans are issued.

“By uniting our strengths in debt capital markets, blockchain technology, and asset management, we're opening a new avenue for institutional engagement in credit markets—one that benefits from greater efficiency, transparency, and expanded collateral flexibility through onchain execution,” said Chris Ferraro, President and Chief Investment Officer at Galaxy.

Retail Reaction

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits trended in the ‘extremely bullish’ territory at the time of writing, while message volumes were at ‘extremely high’ levels.

One user was bullish about the ERCOT approval, stating it gives Galaxy a major advantage in AI and HPC infrastructure.

https://stocktwits.com/KavaStocks/message/641919100

Another user saw the power expansion news as “massive” and expects the stock to climb to $50, a near 40% upside to the current price of $30.4.

https://stocktwits.com/justAuselessGhOsT/message/641900630

Over the past year, GLXY stock has gained over 60%.

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JPMorgan Chase Unit Facilitates Galaxy Digital Debt Issuance Over Solana Blockchain

Dow Jones Newswires

Coinbase

-8.32%

Galaxy Digital Inc. Class A Common Stock

By Elias Schisgall

J.P. Morgan facilitated a U.S. Commercial Paper issuance for Galaxy Digital on the blockchain platform Solana, with notes purchased by Coinbase Global and Franklin Templeton.

The bank, a unit of JPMorgan Chase, said its transaction for Galaxy, a crytocurrency-focused financial-services firm, was one of the earliest debt issuances to be executed on a public blockchain. It added that the issuance sets a precedent for institutional investors looking to build blockchain-based securities into their portfolios.

"Today's transaction is an important step toward understanding the role blockchain will play in the future of financial markets," Scott Lucas, who leads J.P. Morgan's digital-assets-markets arm, said. "This trade demonstrates institutional appetite for digital assets and our capability to securely bring new instruments on-chain using Solana," he added.

J.P. Morgan created the on-chain token and managed the delivery and payment for the transaction. It said the issuance and redemption proceeds would be paid in USDC stablecoins issued by Circle.

The bank didn't disclose the size of the transaction.

Write to Elias Schisgall at elias.schisgall@wsj.com

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