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[Polymarket Predicts 78% Probability Of "Bitcoin Falling To $65K By 2026"] February 4Th, The Probability Of "Bitcoin Falling To $65,000 In 2026" On Polymarket Has Risen To 78%. Furthermore, The Probability Of It Falling To $55,000 Is Currently At 55%, The Probability Of Rising To $100,000 Is Currently At 56%, And The Probability Of Rising To $110,000 Is Currently At 42%
Marubeni CEO: Coking Coal Prices Are Rebounding, But Iron Ore Market Is Expected To Remain Largely Flat In Next Fiscal Year
Goldman Sachs Says Timing Indicates Western Flows Rather Than Chinese Speculation Drove Much Of The Price Volatility In January
Goldman Sachs: Continues To See Significant Upside Risk To Its Gold Forecast Of $5400/Oz For December 2026
The Statement From Vietnam Indicates That Vietnam Is Willing To Purchase More American Goods, Especially Machinery And High-tech Products
AXIOS Reports That Nuclear Talks Between The United States And Iran Are Expected To Begin In Oman On Friday. The Trump Administration Has Agreed To Iran's Request To Move The Talks From Turkey
China Central Bank Injects 75 Billion Yuan Via 7-Day Reverse Repos At 1.40% Versus Prior 1.40%

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As Bitcoin saw a 2024-level price dip, Alex Thorn, the Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Digital (GLXY), has warned that the latest sell-off should not be considered as short-term noise on Monday.
According to a research note by Galaxy Digital, the market is being driven toward lower prices and longer-term support levels by a combination of on-chain weakness, broken technical levels, macro uncertainty, and a lack of short-term catalysts.
He also added that the selling pressure increased throughout the weekend, causing the apex cryptocurrency to drop 15% between Wednesday, January 28, and Saturday, January 31.
A 10% decline on Saturday alone resulted in over $2 billion in long liquidations across futures markets. BTCUSD briefly fell 10% below the average cost basis of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, estimated at around $84,000, during the sell-off, trading as low as $75,644. Prices occasionally fell below Strategy's average cost basis of $76,037, resulting in a paper loss of almost $1 billion.
Bitcoin Historical Pattern Signals Risk Of More Drawdown
According to Thorn, 46% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin is currently held at a loss, and the cryptocurrency nearly reached its one-year low of $74,420, set during the April 2025 "Tariff Tantrum." Additionally, he highlighted a noteworthy technical signal that has flashed for the first time since 2018. Bitcoin ended January with four consecutive red monthly candles.
Bitcoin has only tanked once, except in 2017, when it fell about 40% from its all-time high. In the past, these drawdowns have often been severe, with price drops of 50% or more over three months.
Thorn suggested that if Bitcoin dropped 50% from its most recent peak, it would land in the $63,000 range, in line with historical patterns. With Bitcoin trading at around $77,000, Thorn notes that it is already 38% below its all-time high of $126,296. This was the first time since early 2024 that it had fallen below the previous cycle peak.
He also pointed out a huge "supply gap" on-chain between the ranges $82,000 and $70,000, where relatively few coins last changed hands. Thorn claimed that, because there has been a lack of buying in that range, it's more likely that Bitcoin will decline in the near future to gauge demand at those levels.
Bitcoin Could Go As Low As $58K
He identified $70,000 as a reasonable short-term downside target for now, with greater risk to longer-term support levels, including the realized price of around $56,000 and the 200-week moving average (MA) of around $58,000. Thorn indicated that Bitcoin fell below its 50-week moving average in November of last year. In past bull markets, similar breaks have led prices back toward the 200-week MA.
Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $78,303.25, up 3.4% in the last 24 hours. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around Bitcoin improved from ‘extremely bearish’ to ‘bearish’ territory. However, chatter remained at ‘extremely high’ levels over the past day.
Bitcoin’s ‘Debasement’ Narrative Is Dead
Thorn also claimed that even though selling pressure has eased a bit, there is still little evidence of whales or long-term holders accumulating more, even though long-term holders have started to slow down their profit-taking. He also said that Bitcoin's failure to trade like gold and silver has made its story as a macro "debasement hedge" less convincing.
Thorn noted that Bitcoin is currently 7.3% below its ETF cost basis, after falling as much as 10% on January 31, and that the past two weeks have been the second- and third-worst on record for Bitcoin ETFs.
SINGAPORE, Feb. 3, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- For years, the financial world has focused on the technical "how" of Real-World Asset (RWA) Tokenization—the mechanical hurdle of migrating real-world assets onto a blockchain. However, as we enter 2026, the industry has reached a tipping point. Today, global digital asset technology solutions provider ChainUp and its partner, Singapore-licensed RWA exchange 1exchange (1X), announced a joint market forecast signaling that the strategic focus has shifted from the mere creation of tokens to the urgent necessity of Market Liquidity.
This shift is underscored by recent institutional movements, including the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) unveiling plans for 24/7 blockchain-based trading of tokenized stocks and Nasdaq's recent proposal to the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to integrate tokenized assets into its framework. For ChainUp and 1exchange, these milestones validate a pivot towards infrastructure that prioritizes high-speed execution and embedded logic.
As the "experimental" era matures, the market is moving past the simple "minting" of assets toward a new frontier defined by the rigorous requirements of secondary market activity and automated compliance—the essential foundations for sustaining the next wave of global capital.
The Shift from "Minted" to "Mobile"
The "Proof of Concept" (PoC) phase that dominated 2025 has concluded. In 2026, the industry is no longer satisfied with static digital representations of assets. The new objective is Sustained Trading Volume.
"In 2025, RWA tokenization proved it could solve the 'accessibility' problem for asset owners," says Sheena Lim, CEO of 1exchange. "However, secondary-market activity remains uneven across many jurisdictions. In 2026, success will be measured by whether these assets can deliver continuous market liquidity beyond the initial issuance stage."
The Rise of "Programmable Trust"
A core shift for 2026 is the transition from manual oversight to Programmable Trust. In this paradigm, compliance, risk controls, and transfer restrictions are embedded directly into the asset's smart contract.
This evolution is anchored by On-Chain Delivery-versus-Payment (DvP) settlement. By synchronizing asset delivery and payment within a single, automated execution framework, platforms are eliminating the manual reconciliation and "T+2" settlement delays that have traditionally hampered private markets.
"Compliance has evolved from a value-add to a baseline requirement for institutional growth," explains Sailor Zhong, Founder & CEO of ChainUp. "By embedding logic directly into the transaction lifecycle, regulated venues can scale with confidence. Every trade becomes auditable and compliant by design, rather than by manual intervention."
Unifying the Post-Trade Lifecycle
A significant hurdle for 2026 is the "operational friction" caused by disparate systems for tokenized and traditional assets. To reach maturity, the industry is moving away from vertically integrated silos toward a Modular Market Structure where custody, clearing, and execution are technologically unified.
By implementing blockchain-native protocols for atomic settlement, institutions are replacing manual, multi-day reconciliation with a "Single Source of Truth." This architecture unlocks 24/7 liquidity visibility, allowing institutions to redeploy capital with a level of precision previously impossible in legacy markets.
The Flight to Quality Tokenized Hubs and Tokenized Asset Mobility
As institutional capital seeks a "safe harbor," 2026 is seeing a massive concentration of flows into regulated hubs like Singapore, Dubai, and the EU. These jurisdictions offer the legal certainty required for large-scale deployments of yield-bearing assets like private credit and fixed-income instruments.
The final piece of the 2026 puzzle is Tokenized Asset Mobility—the ability for tokenized value to move across different blockchains and jurisdictions. Through MPC-based (Multi-Party Computation) custody, participants can now manage diverse, multi-rail portfolios through a single interface, ensuring digital assets are dynamic, collateral-ready instruments rather than static ledger entries.
The Normalization of Digital Finance in 2026
The 2026 landscape suggests we are no longer looking at "blockchain" as a separate sector. Instead, we are witnessing the normalization of digital finance.
"2026 marks the year RWA tokenization moves from experimental to a real economic force," concludes Sheena Lim. Sailor Zhong adds, "We are operationalizing blockchain for the global financial core, transforming digital assets from a technical novelty into a scalable institutional standard."
About ChainUp
ChainUp, a leading global provider of digital asset solutions, empowers businesses to navigate the complexities of this evolving ecosystem. Founded in 2017 and headquartered in Singapore, ChainUp serves a diverse clientele, from Web3 companies to established financial institutions.
ChainUp's comprehensive suite of solutions includes crypto exchange solutions, liquidity technology, white label MPC wallet, KYT crypto tracing analytics tool, asset tokenization, crypto asset management, and Web3 infrastructure such as mining, staking, and blockchain APIs. For more information, visit: https://www.chainup.com/.
About 1exchange
1exchange, a member of FOMO Group, is a leading exchange for Real-World Assets (RWA) security tokens and private listings, licensed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). Offering full-stack on-chain infrastructure, the platform enables issuers to list enterprise-grade RWAs, while enabling investors to trade modern digital assets in a regulated secondary market, unlocking global liquidity. Visit www.1x.exchange for more information.
Hyperliquid, the decentralized exchange (DEX) behind the HYPE token, surprised the market on Monday with a new product initiative that ran counter to the prevailing bearish sentiment across the crypto sector.
As several major cryptocurrencies slipped below important technical levels, Hyperliquid’s native token jumped roughly 14% following the announcement, signaling renewed investor interest despite broader market weakness.
Hyperliquid’s HIP‑4 Proposal
The rally was triggered after the Hyperliquid team revealed details of HIP‑4, a proposal that introduces outcome‑based trading to the platform.
Shared via the social media platform X (previously Twitter), the announcement explained that HyperCore — Hyperliquid’s Layer‑1 blockchain engine — will soon support so‑called “outcomes.”
These are fully collateralized contracts designed to settle within a predefined range. Unlike traditional leveraged derivatives, outcome contracts do not rely on leverage or liquidations, offering a different approach to derivatives trading.
According to the team, outcomes are intended as a general‑purpose building block that can power use cases such as prediction markets and bounded, options‑like instruments, areas where user demand has been growing.
Following the news, HYPE managed to hold firmly above the psychologically important $30 level and was trading near $33.22 at the time of writing. Over the past week alone, the token has surged approximately 48%.
The move stands in stark contrast to the performance of the wider market. During the same period, Bitcoin (BTC) fell around 10%, Ethereum (ETH) dropped roughly 18%, and Binance Coin (BNB) slid about 11%.
Challenging Polymarket And Kalshi
Beyond price action, the Hyperliquid team emphasized the broader implications of the outcome primitive for its ecosystem. Outcomes introduce non‑linear payoff structures and fixed‑duration contracts, expanding the range of financial products that can be built on HyperCore.
These contracts are also designed to work alongside existing components such as portfolio margin and the HyperEVM, increasing the overall flexibility of the platform’s infrastructure.
At this stage, outcomes remain under development and are currently being tested on Hyperliquid’s testnet. The team noted that standardized, or “canonical,” markets based on objective settlement sources will be launched once development is finalized.
Depending on community feedback, Hyperliquid plans to eventually open the system to permissionless deployment, allowing a wider range of users and builders to create their own markets.
Market researcher DeFi Ignas described the proposal as an important innovation, highlighting how outcome contracts could be combined with perpetual futures to create more efficient hedging strategies.
As an example, he explained that a trader could hold a long ETH perpetual position while simultaneously purchasing an outcome contract that pays out if ETH falls below a certain price level, such as $2,000.
According to Ignas, this type of composability is not currently possible on prediction platforms like Polymarket or Kalshi. Ignas also pointed to permissionless market creation as another potential differentiator. HYPE Battles Major Resistance
HYPE’s price behavior reflects the instability of the crypto market, despite the euphoria surrounding Hyperliquid’s HIP-4. From a technical sense, $28 served as a major support level during the weekend, preventing further losses.
On the upside, resistance near $34 has capped gains on multiple occasions, including two failed attempts to break higher on Wednesday and Thursday of last week.
Whether HYPE can decisively clear this resistance is likely to determine whether the recent rally extends further or gives way to another short‑term correction.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Spot crypto trading volumes on major exchanges have fallen from around $2 trillion in October to $1 trillion at the end of January, indicating “clear disengagement from investors” and weaker demand, according to analysts.
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently down 37.5% from its October peak amid a liquidity drought and a major bout of risk aversion, causing volumes to contract.
“Spot demand is drying up,” said CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost on Monday, adding that the correction “has been largely driven by the Oct. 10 liquidation event.”
Since October, crypto spot volumes on major exchanges have halved, according to CryptoQuant. Binance, for example, saw $200 billion in Bitcoin volume in October, and that has now fallen to around $104 billion.
However, this is not the only factor at play, they said.
Market liquidity is also under pressure, as reflected by stablecoin outflows from exchanges and around $10 billion in stablecoin market cap declines, they added.
Bitter medicine, but a necessary market move
Justin d'Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, told Cointelegraph that the biggest short-term risks for BTC over the next few months look macro-driven.
“Uncertainty around Kevin Warsh’s hawkish stance as Fed Chair could mean fewer or slower rate cuts, a stronger dollar, and higher real yields, which all pressure risk assets, including crypto,” he said.
Related: Crypto selloff is likely due to US liquidity drought: Analyst
“I don’t think the narrative of BTC as a debasement/inflation hedge is over — Bitcoin was built to hedge against reckless monetary policies and very long-term currency debasement,” he said as a contrarian take.
“The resumption of strong ETF inflows, clearer pro-crypto legislation, or softer economic data that forces the Fed back toward easier policy” could spark a meaningful rally, d'Anethan said.
Not close to the Bitcoin price bottom yet
Alphractal founder and CEO Joao Wedson pointed out that two things need to happen for a Bitcoin price bottom.
Short-term holders (STH) need to be underwater, which is the current scenario, and long-term holders (LTH) “start carrying losses,” which has not happened yet.
He added that bear markets only end when the STH realized price falls below the LTH realized price, and bull markets begin when it crosses back above.
Currently, STH realized price is still above LTH, though a fall below key support at $74,000 could see BTC enter bear market territory.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has recently offloaded a small portion of his ETH holdings, selling just over 700 coins in a series of on-chain transactions.
The sales were tracked by blockchain analytics platforms. They appear to align with a previously disclosed plan to fund long-term initiatives, rather than a market-driven liquidation.
Vitalik Buterin Sells Over 700 ETH in Planned Funding Move
Lookonchain reported that Buterin sold 211.84 ETH for approximately 500,000 USDC. He transferred the full amount to Kanro, a philanthropic entity established by the Ethereum co-founder. Kanro supports research and initiatives focused on combating infectious diseases, particularly after the COVID-19 pandemic.
Buterin has a track record of channeling crypto asset sales into charitable causes. In January 2025, he sold 28 different meme coins worth approximately 984,000 USDC. The executive directed the proceeds to Kanro, reinforcing his long-standing commitment to philanthropy.
Following the initial ETH sale, Buterin continued selling. Lookonchain highlighted that he offloaded another 493 ETH. Together, these actions brought the total to 704.84 ETH, worth approximately $1.63 million at current market prices.
“In these five years, the Ethereum Foundation is entering a period of mild austerity,” he stated.”To this end, my own share of the austerity is that I am personally taking on responsibilities that might in another time have been ‘special projects’ of the EF.”
He explained that the funds would support the development of open-source, secure, and verifiable software and hardware across areas such as finance, communications, governance, operating systems, secure hardware, and biotech, including both personal and public health. Buterin also noted that he is exploring secure decentralized staking options to generate additional funding over time.
“The Ethereum Foundation will continue with a steadfast focus on developing Ethereum, with that goal in mind. ‘Ethereum everywhere’ is nice, but the primary priority is ‘Ethereum for people who need it,’ Not corposlop, but self-sovereignty, and the baseline infrastructure that enables cooperation without domination,” Buterin added.
According to the latest data from Arkham, Buterin still holds 235,268 ETH worth approximately $549.2 million, alongside smaller allocations in WETH and aETHwETH. His overall portfolio is valued at more than $569 million, down from over $800 million amid broader market headwinds that have pushed asset prices lower.
Meanwhile, Buterin’s ETH sales appeared to have little to no immediate impact on the asset’s market performance. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, continued to move in line with the broader market, which has shown signs of recovery.
According to BeInCrypto Markets data, ETH gained approximately 5% over the past 24 hours. At the time of writing, it was trading at $2,312.6.
U.S. spot bitcoin BTC exchange-traded funds recorded $561.9 million in net inflows on Monday, snapping a four-day streak of outflows and marking the strongest single-day intake since mid-January.
Monday's inflows came amid continued volatility in bitcoin, which slid to around $75,000 earlier in the day before rebounding to roughly $78,500 late Monday — still well below levels seen before the sell-off.
Fidelity's FBTC led the inflows on Monday with $153.4 million, followed by BlackRock IBIT's inflows of $142 million, according to SoSoValue data. Bitwise's BITB saw $96.5 million in net inflows, while funds from Grayscale, Ark & 21Shares, VanEck, Invesco, WisdomTree also posted inflows.
Vincent Liu, CIO at Kronos Research, described the move as a sign of renewed conviction among large allocators.
"Large allocators are using regulated ETFs to scale exposure as part of macro positioning shifts, portfolio rebalancing, or positioning ahead of catalysts," said Liu. "If this trend continues, spot buying can tighten liquid supply and support a firmer near-term market backdrop."
Ending outflow streak
Monday's inflows follow two consecutive weeks of net outflows, with spot bitcoin ETFs shedding $1.49 billion last week and $1.33 billion the week before.
Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey Group, said the earlier withdrawals were largely driven by the rapid convergence of price spreads between spot ETFs and bitcoin futures, which eroded arbitrage returns and prompted a phased exit of related capital. At the same time, weaker overall risk appetite pushed some allocators to actively de-risk.
"However, as bitcoin prices tested the bottom twice in a short period and broke below the previous consolidation range, the market has gradually completed the pricing of pessimistic expectations," Sun said. As a result, some medium- to long-term capital now views current levels as a "cost-effective allocation level," driving a partial return of ETF inflows, he added.
Sun cautioned, however, that the move represents a phased recovery rather than confirmation of a new trend-driven rally.
Meanwhile, spot Ethereum ETFs saw $2.86 million in net outflows on Monday, compared with outflows of $252.87 million last Friday.
Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.
© 2026 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
ZIL price surged more than 70% today, marking one of its strongest single-day performances in months. The rally unfolded as traders reacted to confirmation of an upcoming Zilliqa network upgrade, triggering renewed attention toward the protocol at a time when the broader crypto market remains under pressure. While most large-cap and mid-cap tokens struggled for direction, Zilliqa price attracted concentrated inflows, pushing it decisively out of its recent consolidation range. As volume accelerated and volatility expanded, the focus quickly shifted from whether ZIL could move to how sustainable the move might be.
Zilliqa’s Upgrade Catalyst Drives Spot Demand and Narrative Shift
ZIL price rally followed confirmation of a significant Zilliqa network upgrade, which laid out concrete technical and ecosystem developments rather than vague roadmap promises. The network rolled out node version 0.20.0, aligning Zilliqa with Cancun-era EVM functionality and setting the stage for a hard fork scheduled for February 5, 2026. This upgrade improves smart-contract compatibility, enhances tooling for developers, and lowers friction for applications integrating with Ethereum-based environments. Beyond core infrastructure, the update also introduced a meaningful institutional signal.
A government-linked trust network from Liechtenstein is set to participate as a validator, strengthening decentralization and validator credibility. Additional improvements included expanded API capacity for enterprise users and resolution of validator stability issues that had previously constrained performance. For markets, this was not abstract development talk, it was actionable progress, and price reacted accordingly.
ZIL Price Shows Massive Breakout: Is $0.0100 Next?
Zilliqa price chart shows a falling wedge pattern breakout with strong surge in volume. With the start of this month, ZIL price rallied more than 90% and skyrocketed above the supply zone of $0.007000. ZIL’s price action indicates a clear shift in trend, with price surpassing the short-term moving averages and is eyeing to smash the 200 day EMA cluster of $0.007800. Once ZIL price strikes above the zone, further rally would take shape which could push Zilliqa price toward $0.01000 in the near term.
On the downside, the former channel resistance now acts as near-term support. A sustained move back below that level would signal loss of momentum and put the breakout at risk. Until then, the chart reflects trend transition rather than exhaustion.
Derivatives Data Showed Forced Repositioning
ZIL’s rally was reinforced by a sharp and measurable shift in derivatives positioning. Total open interest surged to roughly $55.1 million, marking a near 922% jump intraday, a clear signal that fresh leverage entered the market rather than price moving on low participation. At the same time, 24-hour futures volume expanded to approximately $856 million, up more than 4585%, confirming that the breakout attracted broad-based speculative interest across major venues.
Long/short positioning tilted decisively toward the long side, with the aggregate long-short ratio pushing above 1.20, indicating bullish dominance but not yet an overcrowded long trade. Liquidation data further supports this structure: short-side liquidations dominated, while long liquidations remained relatively contained, suggesting bearish exposure was flushed as price accelerated. This combination of rising open interest alongside expanding volume typically reflects new directional conviction, not late-stage short covering alone, which gives a clear bullish outlook.
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