Bitcoin Whale Holdings Drop to Lowest Since 2018

A tenth of the global post-trade market turnover is expected to be handled through stablecoins and tokenized securities in less than five years, according to a survey by Citi.The investment bank said in a Securities Services Evolution report released on Tuesday that bank-issued stablecoins were seen as the main method to support collateral efficiency, fund tokenization and private market securities.The report polled 537 custodians, banks, broker-dealers, asset managers and institutional investors in the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific and the Middle East between June and July, where over half reporting their firms are also piloting generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) for post-trades.

The post-trade market ensures securities trades are verified, executed and finalized, and comes as Wall Street has taken a liking to stablecoins after the US passed laws earlier this year regulating the tokens.

Crypto industry nearing tipping point

Citi said in its report that since 2021, the adoption of digital assets has progressed from early experimentation to strategic implementation, and while the “momentum was clear,” the industry has yet to hit a tipping point, but the bank predicts it could be “tantalizingly close.”“After years of groundwork, the global post-trade industry looks set for a period of transformation in speed, cost and resilience on an international scale.”Survey respondents marked liquidity and post-trade cost efficiencies as the key drivers of investments into digital ledger technology (DLT), with a majority citing the areas as being significantly impacted by blockchain in the next three years.“More than half of the survey’s respondents are clearer than ever that the ability of DLT to increase the velocity of securities around the world’s capital markets can have major impacts on their funding costs, financial resource requirements and operating costs before 2028,” Citi said.

Some countries expect crypto to handle more turnover

The expectations on digital asset growth were higher in the US, with 14% of all market turnovers predicted to be conducted using digital or tokenized assets by 2030, compared to Europe’s 10% and the Asia Pacific’s 9%.

US markets were tipped to have the highest percentage of market turnover using tokenized securities. Source: Citi

Citi said American sentiment in 2025 has been a stand-out development this year, driven by regulatory changes such as the GENIUS Act which President Donald Trump signed into law in July.Related: Citi executive warns stablecoin yields could drain bank deposits: ReportLeadership from large firms like stablecoin issuer Circle, and asset manager BlackRock and other institutions in scaling digital liquidity also drove the change in sentiment.

Gen AI tipped to play a factor too

GenAI is also expected to play a part in the post-trade market with 57% of respondents indicating that their organizations are piloting the technology for post-trade operations.At least 67% of institutional investors indicated they use GenAI for post-trade reconciliation, reporting, clearing, and settlements.

More than half of respondents said their organizations are piloting GenAI for post-trades. Source: Citi

Generative artificial intelligence uses generative models to produce text, images, videos and forms of data.However, at the moment, the most significant number of respondents said their firms are piloting GenAI for onboarding, with 83% of brokers, 63% of custodians and 60% of asset managers using it to “make a meaningful impact.”“In a world where faster, cleaner onboarding literally means money, this use case appears to be a perfect starting point and an opportunity to bridge the gap between retail and institutional clients,” Citi said.

Source: COINTELEGRAPH

Rachel Reeves was hit by a fresh sell-off in government bond markets on Tuesday, underlining the formidable challenge facing the chancellor in the run-up to the autumn budget.

The yield, or interest rate, on 30-year UK government debt hit its highest level since 1998, at 5.723%, indicating that it will cost the UK more to borrow from the markets.

Yields, which rise when a bond’s price falls, are a measure of the interest rate that investors demand when lending to a government or company.

The rising yield on long-dated gilts, as UK government bonds are known, echoed a global shift that has pushed up borrowing costs in other leading economies, amid fears about erratic US policies.

“These moves are not anything UK-specific,” said Carsten Jung, the associate director for economic policy at the IPPR thinktank. Treasury officials pointed to similar increases in yields on Tuesday in Germany, the US and France.

But with the government already spending more than £100bn a year in interest on the UK’s debts, the latest jump highlighted the extent to which the government feels constrained by the bond markets.

The 10-year gilt yield, which the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) uses to forecast future government borrowing costs, also rose on Tuesday, hitting its highest level since January.

Meanwhile the pound weakened, falling by more than 1.5 cents against the US dollar to $1.3390, its worst day since early April, when Donald Trump launched his global trade war.

These latest market jitters followed a shake-up of key figures inside No 10 that was widely read at Westminster as an attempt by Keir Starmer to get a firmer grip on economic policy.

This included poaching Reeves’s deputy, Darren Jones, to a new role as Starmer’s “chief secretary” and appointing a heavyweight new economic adviser, the former Bank of England deputy governor Minouche Shafik.

Concern that the chancellor is being “managed out” is weighing on UK government bonds, suggested Kathleen Brooks, the research director at XTB.

“The last time there was a threat to Reeves’s position, back in early July, bond yields jumped as the market worried that she could be replaced by a more left-leaning member of the Labour party,” Brooks said.

The chancellor was filmed in tears in the House of Commons chamber in July, briefly prompting bond yields to rise as investors speculated she could be replaced with a more spendthrift alternative.

Brooks confirmed that the UK was “not an outlier” in bond markets for the moment, but added: “As we lead up to the budget, the chancellor’s options are narrowing, and we could see more frequent bursts of bond market volatility. While we are not quite at Liz Truss levels of stress in the UK bond market, the ‘Starmer moment’ for markets could be coming down the line.”

Reeves has argued that her fiscal rules, which some Labour MPs feel unnecessarily limit the government’s scope for action, reflect real-world limits on investors’ appetite for the UK’s debt.

The rules, which apply in five years’ time, require her to balance day-to-day spending with tax receipts and reduce debt as a share of GDP.

In a budget now not expected until mid-November at the earliest, the chancellor is widely expected to be forced to raise extra revenue with a fresh round of tax increases, to rebuild the “headroom” against these rules.

The city consultancy Capital Economics has predicted that weaker OBR forecasts may mean she has to raise £18-28bn to leave herself with a buffer of £9.9bn.

A recent flurry of reports about potential budget tax rises have worried bond investors, according to Marcus Jennings, a fixed-income strategist at Schroders.

“Broadly speaking, whilst no specific policy has caused a sell-off in government bonds in isolation, the rush of potential policies is a reminder of how challenged the UK’s fiscal position is. This has likely facilitated a move higher in yields in the UK, notwithstanding the global move in long-end yields,” Jennings said.

The Treasury is keen to damp down some of this speculation. Bank shares fell sharply last Friday after suggestions of a tax on the highly profitable sector. Ministers are also believed to be examining options for taxing property more heavily.

Officials insist that tax changes will be focused on boosting economic efficiency, while Reeves’s central focus will remain improving the UK’s lacklustre productivity.

It is a downgrade of the OBR’s forecasts for future productivity – the amount UK workers can produce in an hour, and a key determinant of economic growth – that is expected to weigh on its budget projections.

The institution’s expectations for productivity are more optimistic than those of many other forecasters, and have repeatedly been disappointed in the recent past.

Any shortfall against Reeves’s fiscal rule appears unlikely to be closed through significant spending cuts, after a backbench rebellion forced Downing Street to abandon plans for £5bn of disability cuts earlier this year.

While bond prices fell on Tuesday, traders piled in to precious metals in a flight to safety. This pushed the gold price up to a new record high of $3,508 (£2,607) an ounce on Tuesday, while silver rose over $40 an ounce for the first time since 2011.

Anxiety over fiscal sustainability is another factor hitting the bond market, with Donald Trump’s recent tax cuts and spending bill expected to add trillions of dollars to the US national debt. Trump’s recent attacks on the independence of the central bank, the Federal Reserve, have also rattled investors.

Source: Theguardian

Britain's budget rumour mill was already in full swing well before a date was set on Wednesday, with speculation about tax increases posing a further risk to confidence among businesses and households already anxious about inflation and job losses.

Media reports have suggested finance minister Rachel Reeves is considering new taxes on home sales, ways to make more people pay income tax, changes to pensions relief and possibly new levies on banks and gambling in her annual budget, now set for November 26.

Britain grew faster than any other Group of Seven economy in the first half of 2025, but much of the momentum was driven by higher public spending and a rush by manufacturers to get ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's import tariffs.

The public finances remain weak and analysts say Reeves will have to raise taxes by at least 20 billion pounds ($27 billion) - and possibly double that - to remain on course to hit her own fiscal targets.

The Confederation of British Industry has already called on the government not to repeat last year's tax increase on employers and in August linked a fall in confidence, investment and activity among services firms to short-term uncertainty.

Last month, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said talk of new taxes on home sales was causing concern, while some analysts believe a surprise dip in house prices reported this week might be a sign of weakness to come.

And wage data firm Brightmine has said private sector employers are unlikely to raise workers' pay settlements from below-inflation levels until the budget picture becomes clearer.

Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK, which publishes Britain's longest-running gauge of consumer confidence, said reports about tax increases were probably having an impact on the public mood.

"It's something people are more aware of in terms of how this could impact me directly," he said.

High levels of household savings point to consumer caution, while offering the prospect of stronger spending at some point.

Deutsche Bank analysts said a new "Fear Index" based on the bank's surveys showed British consumers are more anxious than at any point since the pandemic, due to worries about unemployment, higher inflation and the reports of possible tax increases.

For businesses, uncertainty around the budget comes after the shocks of Brexit, COVID-19, the 2022 surge in energy prices and Trump's tariffs.

"If they are in a position to be able to invest, they're still hovering over that button," CBI Chief Economist Louise Hellem said. "They feel that if we just wait a couple of weeks or wait a couple of months, it'll all become a bit clearer. And we never seem to quite get to that point."

Hellem, who once helped prepare annual budgets as a Treasury official, said the government was showing it wanted to create a longer-term strategy for the economy.

It is seeking to streamline the planning system and boost investment - both public and private - in infrastructure.

Hellem also welcomed the government's intention to get more people into work, but said last year's tax increase for employers and uncertainty about plans to give workers more rights risked having the opposite effect.

BOND MARKETS ARE WATCHING

In her first budget last year, Reeves ordered Britain's biggest tax hikes in three decades, with most of the 40 billion pounds of revenue raisers falling on employers.

She has said no further tax increases on that scale are planned.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer dropped proposals in June for big welfare savings, however, while Britain's fiscal watchdog is expected to lower its economic growth projections, cutting future tax flows.

That leaves Reeves with little option other than to raise taxes to keep on track for her fiscal targets - chief among them a pledge to balance day-to-day spending with revenues by the end of the decade - or risk trouble in the bond market.

Investors remain hyper-sensitive to Britain's big borrowing needs after the 2022 "mini-budget" crisis under former Prime Minister Liz Truss. This week, 30-year borrowing costs hit their highest since 1998 amid a broader government debt sell-off.

The fine margins of error in Reeves' plans for meeting her fiscal rules - which unusually in Britain are assessed twice a year - also raise the risk that similar uncertainty will drag on the economy ahead of future budgets.

That prospect has prompted calls for the eventual restoration of more headroom in budget plans, or more root-and-branch changes to the rules.

"If you want growth to happen, you want firms that are investing to be sure about what's going to happen over the next few years," Stephen Millard, deputy director for macroeconomics at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a think tank, said.

But the likelihood of Reeves carving out more headroom in this year's budget is slim because of the political costs of very big tax increases or deep spending cuts, Millard said.

Britain's government might also be tempted to follow the lead of European Union countries which in March agreed they could temporarily spend more on defence without breaking the bloc's rules.

"If we're back into the same conversation in a year's time, I think there will be some honest conversations about whether the fiscal framework is fit for purpose," Sanjay Raja, Deutsche Bank's chief UK economist, said.

Source: Reuters

Source: Euronews

Futures linked to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recovered on Wednesday after Alphabet gained on a favorable antitrust ruling and investors awaited labour market data that could influence the central bank's upcoming interest-rate decision.

Alphabet jumped 6.2% in premarket trading after a Washington judge ruled late on Tuesday Google will not have to sell its Chrome browser, but will have to share data with rivals.

Apple also gained 3.9% as the ruling allowed Google to continue lucrative payments to the iPhone maker.

"This outcome removes a significant legal overhang and signals that the court is willing to pursue pragmatic remedies rather than scorched-earth tactics," said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

"That's a message the rest of Big Tech, many of whom face their own antitrust battles, will be watching closely."

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report for July, due at 10am ET, marks the first in a series of jobs indicators expected this week that will culminate in Friday's highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls data.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments at Jackson Hole earlier this month have put the focus squarely on labour market weakness ahead of the central bank's rate decision on September 17.

Following July's weak payrollsdata and massive revisions to previous reports collectively suggesting a cooling labour market, investors are now pricing in a 91.2% chance of a September rate cut, according to data compiled by LSEG.

At 7.14am ET, Dow E-minis YMcv1 were up 14 points, or 0.03%, Nasdaq 100 E-minis NQcv1 were up 172.75 points, or 0.74%, and S&P 500 E-minis EScv1 were up 32.75 points, or 0.51%.

Wall Street closed sharply lower in the first trading session of September, as yields on longer-dated Treasury notes had spiked, pressuring equities.

Yields on the 30-year note hit a more than one-month high on Tuesday after a court ruling last week deemed most of US President Donald Trump's tariffs illegal, reviving some fiscal concerns. It touched 5% earlier on Wednesday and was last at 4.972%.

September has been historically dour for US equities, with the index losing 1.5% in the month on average since the turn of the century, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Department store operator Macy's soared 9.8% after raising its annual forecasts, but discount retailer Dollar Tree dropped 9.2% despite a forecast hike.

As earnings season winds down, investors are watching for commentary on the holiday season shopping outlook to gauge the health of the US consumer. A survey by PwC showed US holiday spending this year was set for its steepest drop since the pandemic.

Fed policymakers Alberto Musalem and Neel Kashkari are scheduled to deliver speeches on the day, potentially offering more clues on monetary policy direction.

In other moves, Zscaler inched 1.1% higher after the cloud security firm forecast annual revenue above estimates.

Source: Theedgemarkets