Bitcoin Tops Gold As Preferred Safe Haven Even With Bullion At Record Highs, Shows Poll

Crypto markets are set for a volatile week as several major U.S. economic events take place, increasing uncertainty among investors. How crypto prices move in the coming days may indicate whether the market is heading for a deeper correction or preparing for a bullish move.

The key events start on January 28 with a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. This will be followed by the release of U.S. initial jobless claims data on January 29.

The week concludes on January 30 with U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data and rumors of a U.S. government shutdown. Both developments could strongly impact the cryptocurrency market.

Jerome Powell Speech and Impact on the Crypto Market 

Historically, U.S. government shutdowns have negatively impacted the crypto market. During the previous shutdown, Bitcoin dropped sharply, raising fears that similar selling pressure could return if uncertainty increases.

At the same time, markets expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to keep interest rates unchanged. While this outcome is mostly priced in, investor reaction will depend on Jerome Powell’s comments. A hawkish tone could lead to widespread sell-offs, while hints of future rate cuts may support a bullish move in crypto markets.

Bitcoin Price Forecast Ahead of FOMC Meeting Today

Bitcoin has been moving inside a parallel price channel since November, but recently slipped below a key support level, raising fresh concerns about a possible shift in trend. This move could either be a false breakdown meant to shake out overleveraged long positions or the beginning of a more sustained bearish phase.

For now, as long as Bitcoin trades below the $92,000 mark, it is viewed as being in a higher-risk zone. Technical charts suggest prices could fall toward the $85,000–$86,000 area, with stronger weekly support sitting lower, around $75,000–$77,000. If BTC Price fails to move back above the channel’s resistance, the market could see a deeper correction over the next two to three weeks.

Ethereum and Altcoins Under Pressure

Ethereum price is also under pressure, struggling to hold its channel support. On the weekly chart, ETH remains capped below the key $3,000 resistance level. If this barrier continues to hold, there is a growing risk of a move down toward $2,700, with additional support expected between $2,300 and $2,700. 

A clear break below $2,700 could speed up losses toward the $2,261 zone.

The broader altcoin market looks even more fragile. The Total3 market capitalization index, which tracks crypto assets excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, has already slipped below its channel support. If the $788 billion level does not hold, the next major support appears near $686 billion, signaling the possibility of heavier selling pressure across smaller-cap tokens.

FAQs

Powell’s tone can drive crypto volatility; hawkish hints may trigger sell-offs, while dovish comments could boost bullish momentum.

Powell speaks on January 28 at 10:00 a.m. ET; you can watch live via the Federal Reserve’s official website or major financial news channels.

Crypto often mirrors equities; strong stock drops can trigger crypto sell-offs, while bullish markets may lift digital assets.

Absolutely, trends in stocks, gold, and silver provide clues on risk appetite and potential crypto price swings.

Ethereum has seen renewed attention after the unveiling of ERC-8004, a new AI-focused standard aimed at giving autonomous agents on-chain identity, reputation, and validation. On the surface, it looks like the kind of innovation that should lift sentiment. Post that, the Ethereum price was up almost 2.5% over the past 24 hours.

But the market reaction tells a different story. While large holders have stepped in and the price has stabilized, sentiment remains deeply depressed. The gap between structural progress and market confidence is now the key tension shaping Ethereum’s next move.

ERC-8004 Price Impact? Why Ethereum’s AI Upgrade Might Not Drive A Rally, Yet

ERC-8004 is designed to support decentralized AI agents by giving them a portable on-chain identity, reputation history, and validation. In simple terms, it helps machines trust and transact with each other without centralized platforms. That is a meaningful step for Ethereum’s long-term role in AI coordination.

However, sentiment data shows the market is not reacting the way it did to Ethereum’s last major upgrade cycle.

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When the Pectra upgrade went live on mainnet in May 2025, positive Ethereum sentiment jumped sharply. On the day of launch, the positive sentiment score sat near 259. Within three days, it surged to 610, a gain of roughly 135%. That expansion in sentiment preceded Ethereum’s multi-month rally into late summer (August), when the price eventually peaked after sentiment later reached yearly highs near 749.

The contrast today is stark. During the ERC-8004 rollout, Ethereum’s positive sentiment score is sitting near 18, the lowest reading of the past year. Compared with the Pectra launch baseline of 259, current sentiment is down more than 90%.

The reason lies in the nature of the upgrade. Pectra was a protocol-level improvement tied to scalability, efficiency, and network fundamentals that directly affected users and fees. ERC-8004, by contrast, is more like an application-layer standard. It is structurally important, but its benefits are early-stage and not yet visible to most market participants.

In short, ERC-8004 matters for Ethereum’s future. But sentiment data makes it clear the market isn’t pricing in that future yet.

Whales Accumulate as RSI Rebound Starts — But Smart Money Stays Cautious

While sentiment remains weak, on-chain behavior shows a different layer of positioning. But first, the price chart needs to be looked at!

From a technical standpoint, Ethereum recently flashed a hidden bullish divergence between December 18 and January 25. Price made a higher low while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) made a lower low. RSI measures momentum. This setup typically signals that selling pressure is easing, not that a full trend reversal has begun. The subsequent rebound confirmed stabilization and even avoided the bear flag breakdown.

The Ethereum price now just needs to form a daily close above $3,160 to defeat the bearish pattern.

Alongside that stabilization and hope for bearish invalidation, large holders stepped in. Ethereum whales increased their holdings from 104.18 million ETH to 104.61 million ETH following the ERC-8004 announcement. That is an addition of roughly 430,000 ETH. At an average price, this equates to approximately $1.3 billion in accumulation.

This is not small money reacting emotionally to headlines. It is slow, deliberate positioning.

However, another metric tempers the immediate bullish interpretation. The Smart Money Index, which tracks participation from historically well-timed capital, remains below its signal line. In prior cycles, meaningful Ethereum rallies only began after this index crossed upward. The last clean signal-line break preceded a rally of roughly 13%. That confirmation is still missing.

Taken together, the message is clear. Whales are accumulating on weakness, likely with a long-term horizon. Smart money is not yet chasing momentum, aligned with weak sentiment. This is positioning, not speculation. This outlook could keep the ERC-8004 price impact low.

Double Bottom Sets a $4,000 Ethereum Price Path?

Only after sentiment and positioning are understood does the larger price structure come into focus.

Ethereum recently avoided a breakdown and is now forming a double-bottom W structure on the daily timeframe. This pattern reflects demand stepping in at similar lows, creating the potential for a broader recovery if resistance levels are cleared.

The structure defines a clear ladder of levels.

The first resistance zone sits near $3,160. Above that, the critical neckline of the double bottom lies in the $3,390–$3,400 range. This level matters. A sustained break above it would activate the pattern rather than merely suggest it.

If that neckline is reclaimed with confirmation, the structure opens conditional upside targets near $3,790 and $4,170. A further extension toward $4,410 would require not just price strength, but a material expansion in sentiment and smart-money participation.

Without that confirmation, the pattern remains potential energy, not a trigger. On the downside, dipping under $2,930 weakens the case. However, losing $2,780 would invalidate the double bottom structure and open lower Ethereum price levels.

Altcoin investors have heard this many times before that Altcoin Season is about to start, but the question is exactly when. Well-known crypto trader Don Wedge believes the next altcoin season may already be forming quietly and could begin within the next 112 days, based on past market patterns.

Altcoin Season Just 112 Days Away

According to Don Wedge, the long-term Altcoins/BTC chart shows a pattern that keeps repeating. So far, the market has seen two major altcoin seasons.

The first came in 2017, when Bitcoin dominance dropped, and many altcoins jumped 500% to over 2,000%. This happened after months of slow, boring price action, when most traders had already lost interest.

The second followed in 2021. After Bitcoin peaked near $69,000, money moved into altcoins. Ethereum gained over 400%, and many smaller coins rose even more. Once again, the rally started after a long consolidation phase and weak market confidence.

A Glassnode analyst has pointed out how Ethereum is retesting a dense supply cluster that could set the tone for where the cryptocurrency heads next.

Ethereum Is Trading At A Dense Level On The CBD

In a new post on X, Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish has talked about how Ethereum is looking from the perspective of the Cost Basis Distribution (CBD). The CBD is an on-chain indicator that tells us about the total amount of ETH that investors last purchased at the various levels that the cryptocurrency has visited in its history.

Below is the chart shared by Beamish that shows the CBD heatmap for Ethereum.

As is visible in the graph, Ethereum’s bottom in November gave rise to a dense supply cluster on the CBD around the $2,750 level. Interestingly, the zone has since acted as a support barrier for the asset multiple times.

The explanation behind this trend could lie in investor psychology. Generally, investors are sensitive to a retest of their cost basis since it can lead to a flip in their profit-loss balance. As such, they can be likely to show some kind of move when one takes place.

When the retest is occurring from above, the holders might react by accumulating more in order to defend their break-even level. This is the pattern that has potentially been witnessed since the November bottom. From the chart, it’s apparent that Ethereum retested the $2,750 supply zone twice in December and both times, the asset was able to rebound.

Recently, a third retest has taken place and so far, the support has held, but it only remains to be seen how long the coin will maintain above it. “Holding here suggests absorption and base building, but a breakdown would move price into thinner support where underwater supply may derisk,” explained the analyst.

Usually, regions where a large amount of supply shares a cost basis tend to act as notable sources of support/resistance. The $2,750 cluster might fall in this category, but that doesn’t make it unbreachable. “Next move hinges on this level,” noted Beamish.

In some other news, Ethereum has witnessed a decline in transaction fees recently, as highlighted by Glassnode in an X post.

Following this drawdown, the transaction fees on the Ethereum blockchain has fallen to its lowest level since May 2017, a potential indication that network activity has gone down.

ETH Price

At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading around $2,950, down 1.5% over the last week.

Ethereum announced that ERC-8004, a proposal defining a standard for trustless AI agents on the network, is set to go live on mainnet soon.

The proposal, introduced in August 2025, aims to allow AI agents to interact with different organizations and platforms on Ethereum to enable a decentralized, permissionless economy where agents act as full economic participants.

"By enabling discovery and portable reputation, ERC-8004 allows AI agents to interact across organizations ensuring credibility travels everywhere," Ethereum wrote on social media platform X on Tuesday. "This unlocks a global market where AI services can interoperate without gatekeepers."

The proposal said AI agent trust models are pluggable and tiered by risk and security level, allowing agents to perform low-stake tasks like ordering pizza to high-stake cases such as medical diagnosis.

Davide Crapis, the AI lead at the Ethereum Foundation, said the network is in a "unique position" to become the platform that settles AI-to-AI interaction. Part of Ethereum's mission is to connect the AI community with decentralized infrastructure, Crapis added.

While the official Ethereum account did not provide a specific launch date, Marco De Rossi, head of AI at MetaMask and one of the co-authors of the proposal, said the mainnet launch will take place "probably around Thursday 9 am ET."

Identity, reputation, validation

ERC-8004 establishes three lightweight smart contract registries, deployable on mainnet or any Layer 2s, as a mechanism to discover and trust AI agents in untrusted settings.

The identity registry provides every agent with a portable, censorship-resistant identifier, which makes every agent browsable and transferable with NFTs-compliant apps. The reputation registry provides an interface for signed feedback from clients, such as agent ratings. The validation registry allows agents to request verification of their work and allows validator smart contracts to provide responses that can be tracked on-chain.

Meanwhile, ERC-8004 also laid out potential risks related to security. The proposal cited the possibility of Sybil attacks, where a malicious actor creates a large number of fake identities to gain disproportionate influence. 

It also noted that the ERC cannot cryptographically guarantee that advertised capabilities of an agent are fully functional and non-malicious, but instead relies on three trust models — reputation, validation, and trusted execution environment attestation — to mitigate this risk.

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All eyes are on the U.S. Federal Reserve today as it prepares to announce its latest interest rate decision. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release its policy update at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time, followed by a press conference from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Markets widely expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, with current expectations showing a 97% chance of no rate move. While some policymakers support cutting rates to ease borrowing costs, others prefer to keep them steady, pointing to persistent inflation and a strong U.S. economy.

Is Fed Likely to Hold Rates Steady

Market expectations suggest that a rate cut would be a positive development for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. According to Polymarket, traders are currently pricing in a 70% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut. However, if rates remain unchanged, market sentiment could turn sharply negative.

As per the Fed Rate Monitor Tool by Investing.com, there is a 97.7% probability of a rate pause, while the likelihood of a rate cut stands at just 2.3%.

Recent economic data supports the case for no immediate policy change. U.S. CPI inflation remained flat at 2.7%, while the Fed’s preferred gauge, PCE inflation, edged higher to 2.8%. At the same time, labor market data has largely come in better than expected, showing resilience despite disruptions caused by the 2025 government shutdown.

Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson said policymakers are likely to remain patient.

These conditions give the Fed more flexibility to delay rate cuts until it has clearer evidence that inflation is moving sustainably lower.

Powell Expected to Strike a Familiar Tone

We do not expect major surprises from Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. He is likely to reiterate that policy decisions will remain data-dependent, without committing to a near-term rate cut.

Chris Larkin, Managing Director at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley, believes politics could play an outsized role in the headlines.

FED Rate Cut Forecast for 2026 Remains Uncertain

Looking beyond today’s meeting, forecasts for 2026 rate cuts remain mixed.

Goldman Sachs expects U.S. growth to accelerate to 2–2.5% in 2026, driven by easing financial conditions and tax cuts. Chief economist Jan Hatzius sees the Fed pausing in January, followed by rate cuts in March and June, potentially lowering rates to 3–3.25%.

J.P. Morgan, however, takes a more cautious stance, projecting the Fed will hold rates steady through 2026, with a possible rate hike in 2027 if inflation remains sticky.

TD Securities’ chief U.S. macro strategist Oscar Munoz believes easing is still on the table.

Bitcoin and Risk Assets Face FOMC Volatility

While today’s decision may appear uneventful, history suggests FOMC meetings often trigger sharp moves in Bitcoin and other risk assets.

According to data shared by Ali Charts, Bitcoin declined after seven of eight FOMC meetings in 2025, with losses ranging from 6% to 29%. The most recent meeting saw BTC fall 9%.

The pattern highlights that even when markets price in optimism ahead of Fed meetings, the post-announcement reaction has frequently leaned bearish.

Liquidity Signals Could Shift the Narrative

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes pointed to growing stress in Japan’s bond market as a potential wildcard. He noted that a weakening yen alongside rising Japanese government bond yields could prompt intervention by U.S. authorities.

FAQs

The Fed releases its interest rate decision at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.

No. Markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to hold rates steady, with more than a 97% probability priced in for a pause.

FOMC decisions often trigger volatility in crypto, with Bitcoin frequently seeing sharp moves even when rates are left unchanged.

Outlooks are mixed. Some analysts expect gradual cuts, while others see rates staying higher if inflation remains persistent.