Bitcoin Tests Key Fibonacci Support as Analysts Warn of Drop to $76K

Chainlink price is trading in a tight price range after a strong recovery from recent lows, placing the asset at a decisive zone where momentum is likely to expand. Price has repeatedly defended the same demand area, while sellers have failed to push LINK into a sustained breakdown—often a sign of an upcoming directional move. If buyers regain control, a rally toward the $20–$22 zone could unfold. However, failure to hold current levels may expose LINK to a sharp pullback toward $12–$10.

Chainlink Price Analysis

Chainlink’s price has shown notable resilience since rebounding from the $11 region, which has now emerged as a critical support zone for bulls to defend. Despite elevated intraday volatility, sustained buying momentum has failed to push LINK decisively above $15, keeping the price trapped within a narrow range. This stalemate, however, appears deliberate rather than weak. Price fluctuations are gradually compressing while trading activity remains stable, often signaling quiet accumulation beneath the surface.

The current market structure points toward an imminent breakout, though the broader technical picture remains mixed.

EMJ Capital CEO Eric Jackson has laid out one of the most aggressive long-term bitcoin targets in the space yet, arguing in an interview with reporter Phil Rosen that the cryptocurrency could reach $50 million per coin by 2041. His projection is tied to a thesis that bitcoin will evolve from “digital gold” into the core collateral layer of the global financial system.

Jackson said his thinking grows out of the same “hundred bagger” framework he used when buying beaten-down equities like Carvana. He recalled entering Carvana after its share price collapsed from around $400 to roughly $3.50 in 2022, at a time when sentiment was almost universally hostile. “You would hear things like, that’s run by a bunch of criminals. This is what a bunch of idiots. Like you’d have to be an idiot to let your company go from $400 this year to $450 or $350 rather,” he told Rosen.

For Jackson, that period illustrated how markets behave at extremes. “It’s human nature almost that when you’re in the moment of max pain or pessimism, you can only see what’s right in front of you,” he said. Yet the underlying product remained strong: “It wasn’t a broken platform. It wasn’t a broken service […] they would tell you they loved it. It was so easy. It was the best customer experience they had.” From there, he could “envision how they were going to be like a much more profitable business” once the company focused on profitability and addressed its debt.

Jackson’s Long-Term Thesis For Bitcoin

He applies the same long-horizon lens to bitcoin, arguing that the day-to-day ticker and polarized narratives obscure its structural potential. “We get so tied to turning on the TV and just seeing, like, what’s the price of Bitcoin today […] Some people are bearish and they say, oh, it’s a Ponzi scheme. And some people are bullish and they just, you know, throw these like kind of pie in the sky targets that you can’t really tie to reality,” Jackson said. “It’s kind of hard to latch on to like, what is the value of this thing?”

Jackson begins with the common “digital gold” framing. He asks how large the gold market is, how many central banks and sovereigns hold it and why. “Could Bitcoin be as big as gold one day? That seems like a safe assumption,” he argued, adding that because it is “digital” and “programmable” rather than a “hunk of rock,” younger generations may prefer it as a store of value. But he stresses that this is only part of the story, as bitcoin has not become a medium for daily transactions “since the guy who bought pizza with Bitcoin back in like 2011.”

The “penny dropped,” he said, when he began to think in terms of what he calls the “global collateral layer” that underpins borrowing by sovereigns and central banks. Historically, that base layer moved from gold to the Eurodollar system from the 1960s onward, and today is heavily intertwined with sovereign debt. “All the countries around the world issue debt and then they kind of borrow against that and they do their daily like government transactions,” he noted, but “there are problems with that.”

In Jackson’s “Vision 2041,” bitcoin replaces the Eurodollar and, functionally, becomes the neutral asset that other balance sheets are built upon. He argues that bitcoin is “much superior” as collateral because it is digital and “apolitical,” sitting outside central banks and the influence of “whoever the latest treasury secretary here is in the US.”

As with the Eurodollar, he does not see this as a direct attack on the dollar or Treasuries, but as a new underlying layer: “There’s some underlying thing that a lot of other countries and the financial systems borrow against to kind of do things.”

Looking ahead 15 years, Jackson envisions sovereigns that currently issue and roll debt instead “rely on Bitcoin,” because “over time, like that’s much more logical.” Given the “enormous” scale of the sovereign debt world, he argues that if bitcoin becomes the dominant collateral substrate, its price per coin would need to reach orders of magnitude above current levels—hence his $50 million-by-2041 target.

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $91,574.

By Fabiana Negrin Ochoa

Robinhood Markets is preparing to enter Indonesia's fast-growing trading market by acquiring two local entities as it seeks to expand its footprint to Southeast Asia.

The U.S.-listed retail brokerage, which shot to fame during the meme-stock craze of 2021, said it has inked agreements to acquire PT Buana Capital Sekuritas, an Indonesian brokerage, and PT Pedagang Aset Kripto, a licensed Indonesian digital financial asset trader.

"Indonesia represents a fast-growing market for trading, making it an exciting place to further Robinhood's mission to democratize finance for all," said Patrick Chan, head of Asia at Robinhood.

Pieter Tanuri, the majority owner of Buana Capital and Pedagang Aset Kripto, will stay on as a strategic advisor, Robinhood said in a blog post on Sunday.

Robinhood, which operates primarily in the U.S., but has also entered markets like the U.K., said it will continue to serve Buana Capital's brokerage customers with Indonesian financial products.

"Over time, we hope to also offer Robinhood brokerage and crypto trading products and connect Indonesian customers to U.S. equities, cryptocurrencies, and more at scale," it said.

Both Indonesian acquisitions are expected to close in the first half of 2026, pending regulatory approvals.

Indonesia's crypto market has seen explosive growth in 2025, making it among the largest globally by adoption, according to financial platform OneSafe.

This boom has come alongside evolving regulations, with stricter compliance rules, a new regulatory sandbox, and real-time reporting for transparency and consumer protection, according to Ignacio E. Carballo at Payments and Commerce Market Intelligence.

"Despite volatility, crypto and blockchain are increasingly seen as tools for financial inclusion and innovation, especially as nearly half of Indonesia's adult population remains unbanked," he said in a report earlier this year.

Write to Fabiana Negrin Ochoa at fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com

Bitcoin edges higher as expectations for another interest-rate cut at the Federal Reserve's meeting on Wednesday supports risk appetite. "We expect the Fed to deliver a cut this week, but indicate that the subsequent cuts would be data dependent," Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar says in a note. There's a risk Fed Chair Jerome Powell hints that the pace of rate cuts will reduce in 2026, he says. Labor market indicators have been mixed and recent data don't paint a convincing picture for the Fed to indicate continued rate cuts, he says. Bitcoin rises 1.6% to $91,700, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

Crypto giant Binance has been granted three separate licenses from Abu Dhabi’s financial regulator, providing a green light to operate its exchange, clearing house and broker-dealer services under the Financial Services Regulatory Authority’s (FSRA) regulatory framework. 

The FSRA, an independent financial regulator of the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM), a financial free zone in Abu Dhabi, has approved licenses for Binance’s Nest Exchange Limited, Nest Clearing and Custody Limited, and Nest Trading Limited, according to a press release and announcement from Binance on Monday. 

Richard Teng, the co-CEO of Binance, said in a statement the licenses provide regulatory clarity and legitimacy, enabling Binance to support its global operations from ADGM. 

“While our global operations remain distributed, leveraging talent and innovation worldwide, this regulatory foundation offers our users peace of mind knowing Binance operates under a globally recognised, gold standard framework,” he said

“We are grateful for the FSRA’s forward-thinking approach, which safeguards users while fostering innovation.”

Japan, the world’s largest foreign holder of US government debt, is stoking market anxiety as analysts warn that a potential large-scale bond sell-off could be approaching.

The concern is rippling into the crypto sector, where Tether, issuer of the USDT stablecoin backed primarily by over $113 billion in US Treasuries, faces renewed scrutiny over possible depeg risks.

Analysts Warn Japan Could Dump US Treasuries as Domestic Yields Surge

According to the latest data from the US Department of the Treasury, foreign appetite for US Treasuries weakened in September. Total overseas holdings edged down to $9.249 trillion, a slight dip from August.

Nonetheless, Japan was the exception to this slowdown. The country extended its nine-month buying streak, increasing its holdings to $1.189 trillion, the highest amount it has held since August 2022. This reinforces Japan’s long-standing position as the largest foreign owner of US Treasuries.

That spread made US debt an attractive, low-risk yield alternative. But the macro backdrop is shifting. As BeInCrypto previously highlighted, yields on Japanese government bonds have climbed to their highest levels in years.

With domestic yields improving, the incentive to continue accumulating US Treasuries weakens. It also raises the possibility that Japan may reduce its exposure if market conditions or policy priorities shift further.

An analyst further highlighted that the yield spread between US and Japanese bonds has narrowed from 3.5% to 2.4% in six months. The hedged return on Treasuries has turned increasingly unattractive. The post warned that if the spread approaches 2%, repatriation becomes economically compelling.

That could prompt Japanese institutions to sell US government bonds and reallocate capital domestically. Some models suggest as much as $500 billion may exit global markets in 18 months.

Tether’s US Treasury Exposure Draws Focus

The question many analysts are now asking is straightforward: If Japan begins reducing its Treasury holdings, what does that mean for USDT? The concern arises because Tether’s reserve structure is heavily concentrated in the same asset class that could come under pressure.

According to Tether’s transparency report, more than 80% of its reserves are in US Treasuries. This makes it a major participant in the global Treasury ecosystem, and remarkably, the 17th largest holder of US government debt worldwide, surpassing many sovereign entities.

Such concentration has advantages and vulnerabilities. Treasuries offer high liquidity and historically strong price stability. However, if a major foreign creditor like Japan begins to unwind its holdings, the resulting volatility in bond prices or yields could tighten liquidity conditions, indirectly pressuring large holders like Tether.

Adding to these concerns, S&P Global Ratings downgraded its assessment of Tether’s ability to maintain its peg, moving USDT from a score of 4 (constrained) to 5 (weak). According to the evaluation,

Despite these macro-driven concerns, most market participants see little chance of a forced Tether depeg. Traders on the Opinion prediction market assign a 0.5% probability to the scenario, showing high investor skepticism.

Several factors explain this skepticism. Tether has maintained its peg during previous market crises. The firm generated $10 billion in profit through Q3 2025, offering a substantial buffer against reserve swings.

Although Japan’s Treasury exit could be significant, it will likely unfold gradually. US Treasury markets remain vast and can absorb pressure from selling without huge disruptions. Even so, the combination of Japan’s yield rise, S&P’s downgrade, and Tether’s reserve mix requires close monitoring.