Bitcoin Surges As Institutional Support Paves Path To New Heights

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, highlighting economic frailties, suggests a rate cut might be necessary, Jinshi reports indicate.

This stance could influence crypto markets, potentially boosting BTC and ETH as investors seek higher-risk assets amid expected monetary easing.

Yellen's Rate Cut Proposal: Impacts on U.S. Economy and Crypto

Yellen identified weaknesses in certain economic sectors, suggesting rate reductions to boost growth. With her experience as a former Federal Reserve Chair, she highlighted similar strategies used in past economic downturns. This proposal aims to stimulate economic activity, supporting sectors experiencing slack. Transitioning to a looser monetary policy could invigorate segments reliant on low-interest environments, impacting liquidity. Market observers anticipate reactions from investors, possibly increasing demand for cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Bitcoin. However, no official comments have been made by influential figures from the crypto community regarding her recent remarks. Financial markets are expected to adjust as analysts weigh potential outcomes of this policy adjustment.

Ethereum (ETH), according to CoinMarketCap, trades at $3,088.63, reflecting a 6.69% increase over 24 hours. Its 90-day trend shows a 28.88% decrease, highlighting recent volatility. Market cap stands at formatNumber(372783776803, 2), and its 24-hour trading volume is formatNumber(30707241570, 2). These fluctuations align with typical responses to macroeconomic signals.

"Janet Yellen, U.S. Treasury Secretary, recognizes signs of economic weakness in parts of the economy, emphasizing the potential need for a rate cut."

Source: CryptoSlate

President Vladimir Putin is set to visit India this week for the first time since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a rare trip that underscores the countries' defense and energy ties as New Delhi seeks to finalize a trade deal with Washington.

The Russian leader is eager to show that Moscow still has strong relationships that matter beyond the West – and large markets it can trade with. For India, whose close economic and political ties with Russia date back to the Soviet period, the visit comes as sanctions and US pressure curb an energy trade that has been expedient for its economy and vital for Russia. It is also an opportunity to demonstrate Prime Minister Narendra Modi's continued ability to chart out an independent geopolitical path.

"As the US under Trump has become more isolationist and transactional, and relations with China remain poor, India is ensuring that its ties with middle powers like Russia — or Japan, UAE and the EU — are deepened," said Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, head of Eurasia Group's South Asia practice. "It helps India that President Trump has already ended Putin's pariah status by holding his Alaska Summit."

Both sides have formally framed the visit around trade, though deeper questions remain over energy and defense — two areas that have put India in the crosshairs of Trump. The US leader has doubled India's tariffs to 50% to punish the country for buying oil from Russia, and has pressured New Delhi to buy more American arms. Modi's government is in talks with the Trump administration over trade and close to a deal — a goal that could prove more distant after a show of closer India-Russia ties.

Putin's visit comes against the backdrop of his talks on Tuesday with US envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, on a new peace plan that Washington is pushing hard for Russia and Ukraine to accept. India has maintained a cautious position in relation to the war in Ukraine, calling for a halt to fighting, while also refusing to damage its relationship with Moscow. Modi hugged Putin and called him "my friend" in his first visit to Moscow in five years in 2024, just a day after a deadly Russian missile strike on the main children's hospital in Kyiv provoked international outrage.

The European ambassadors of Germany, France and Britain in New Delhi wrote a joint op-ed in the Times of India on Monday, criticizing Russia's war against Ukraine, and signaling — albeit indirectly — India's long-held view that the conflict should be resolved through negotiations.

On the eve of his visit, Putin hailed his country's ties with India and China, and pledged to boost relations to a "qualitatively new level." He told a business forum in Moscow on Tuesday he'll discuss trade with Modi, including "increasing the import of Indian goods into our market."

India is keen to discuss with Russia the purchase of Su-57 fighter jets and the advanced missile defense shield S-500. Russia remains its largest supplier of military hardware, even after a significant drop in purchases in the recent years, as New Delhi turns more frequently to the US and European countries. The Modi government has indicated it will continue to take both US and Russian equipment.

India already has over 200 Russian fighter jets and several batteries of the earlier generation of air-defense systems, used during a four-day clash with Pakistan in May — a flare-up that has only added to New Delhi's urgency. India's military is also short on advanced aircraft.

Any sale would have to overcome complications thrown up by sanctions and Russia's own wartime demand.

Another major concern for the two leaders will be the oil trade, a key source of revenue for the Kremlin. India will seek to balance its need for inexpensive crude, given the weight of its import bill, with a desire to avoid punitive US tariffs and sanctions.

Historically, it has not been a significant importer of Russian oil, depending more heavily on the Middle East. That changed in 2022, after the invasion of Ukraine and a price cap imposed by the Group of Seven nations that aimed to limit the Kremlin's oil revenues. The surge in purchases — to the point where India became the largest buyer of seaborne Russian crude — was tacitly supported by a Biden administration eager to keep oil flowing, and prices down.

Trump turned that into a pressure campaign this year, berating India and its refiners and eventually sanctioning Russia's two largest oil producers, Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, in an effort to push Putin to the negotiating table. That has dramatically reduced Russian shipments, even in the face of steep discounts – exporters are already offering the nation's flagship Urals crude to India with a discount of as much as $7 a barrel to Brent benchmark on a delivered basis, for cargoes loading in December and arriving in January. That brings the price for India to the lowest in at least two years.

That's a loss Putin will almost certainly seek to reverse. The delegation arriving on Thursday is expected to include senior oil industry executives, along with defense and other officials.

Both leaders will also use the visit to attempt to expand their trade beyond Russian oil and weapons, addressing a business forum on Friday to woo private companies.

India is seeking to gain more access to the Russian market for its exporters hit by US tariffs, with a likely agreement announced on the shipment of marine products and agricultural goods, an official from India's Ministry of External Affairs told reporters in a background briefing on Tuesday. The two sides are also expected to agree on a pact to facilitate Indian workers traveling to Russia for jobs, the official said.

Russia, meanwhile, locked out from markets like Europe, is also on the lookout for alternatives.

"The idea is simple — to get more goods from India and pay for them with the rupees that Russia earns by selling India its oil," said Tatiana Shaumyan, the head of the Center for Indian Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies in Moscow.

Putin and Modi are expected to discuss raising bilateral trade from the current $68 billion to $100 billion by 2030, and also improve systems to settle transactions in their own currencies, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told local media Tuesday.

For India, breaking into the Russian market won't be easy, though. Local and Chinese goods are widely available and competitively priced, leaving Indian exporters with a "quite small" list of viable products, said Alexey Kupriyanov, head of the Center of the Indo-Pacific Region at the state-run IMEMO institute in Moscow.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

The U.S. services sector activity held steady in November, with employment still subdued and prices for inputs elevated, a survey showed on Wednesday.

The Institute for Supply Management said its nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index was little changed at 52.6 last month from 52.4 in October. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI slipping to 52.1.

The services sector accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. The PMI suggested economic activity was on a firmer footing halfway through the fourth quarter.

Economists say activity is being driven by higher-income households, though recent stock market volatility could curtail their spending.

Lower-income households have been disproportionately impacted by higher prices, mostly from import tariffs, creating what economists have called a K-shaped economy. This phenomenon has been evident in consumer sentiment surveys.

The government will publish its delayed initial estimate of gross domestic product for the third quarter later this month. The Atlanta Federal Reserve estimates GDP increased at a 3.9% annualized rate in the third quarter. The economy grew at a 3.8% pace in the April-June quarter.

BACKLOG ORDERS EYE RECOVERY

The ISM survey's measure of new orders received by services businesses dropped to 52.9 in November from 56.2 in the prior month. Backlog orders remained weak, though the pace of decline slowed considerably. Prices paid by services businesses for inputs cooled to still-high levels, indicating inflation could remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target for some time.

U.S. central bank officials will meet next week to decide on interest rates. As many as five of the 12 voting policymakers on the central bank's rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee have voiced opposition to or skepticism about cutting rates further, while a core of three members of the Washington-based Board of Governors wants rates to fall.

The ISM's measure of prices paid by businesses fell to a still-elevated 65.4 from 70.0 in October. Services employment improved, likely reflecting holiday hiring.

Overall, employers remain hesitant to boost hiring amid lingering uncertainty stemming from tariffs and the integration of artificial intelligence for some job roles, economists say. The ISM previously noted that some businesses had reported they "have not replaced employees who have left through attrition."

The survey's gauge of services sector employment rose to 48.9 from 48.2 in October. It has now contracted for six consecutive months. A reduction in supply because of raids on undocumented immigrants is also restraining the labor market.

A survey from the Conference Board last month showed consumers' perceptions of the labor market worsened in November.

Source: TradingView

Key points

Nigeria's President Bola Tinubu has nominated the country's former top general, who he forced out in October, as the new minister of defense.

Christopher Musa will need to be confirmed by the Senate to assume the post.

Tinubu has written to the senate expressing "confidence in General Musa's ability to lead the Ministry of Defense and further strengthen Nigeria's security architecture," a spokesperson said on Tuesday.

Why did the previous defense minister Badaru step down?

Musa will succeed Mohammed Badaru Abubakar, who resigned as defense minister on Monday citing health reasons.

Before his sudden resignation, Badaru had been strongly criticized for the government's failure to tackle a surge in mass kidnappings and Islamist attacks in the West African country.

The calls for Badaru's exit became stronger after he said during a recent interview with BBC's Hausa service that some terrorists couldn't be attacked because their forest hideouts were too dense for bombs to reach.

What do we know about General Christopher Musa?

Musa led the military, serving as chief of defense staff, from 2023 until late October 2025, when Tinubu sacked Musa along with a number of the country's top military officials.

At the time, the media reported that there was a coup attempt, although Tinubu's government denied these reports.

There was no immediate explanation for why Musa was returning.

A career soldier, Musa joined the defense department in 1991 after studying that the country's defense academy, according to the presidential statement.

The 58-year old has field experience combating terrorism. He led operations against the Boko Haram Islamist group from 2021 to 2022 in northeastern Nigeria. Before that, he was a sector commander in the Multinational Joint Task Force fighting Boko Haram and other terrorism groups in the Lake Chad region.

Nigeria hit with a new wave of abductions

Nigeria has struggled to contain mass abductions for more than a decade.

But the past months have seen a sharp uptick in armed criminal "bandit" gangs abducting people for ransom. The bandits often target schools and places of worship because of their vulnerability.

In the largest recent attack, armed men seized 315 children and staff at St. Mary's boarding school in north-central Nigeria in late November.

Fifty escaped the attack, but the rest, mostly children, remain in the hands of the bandits.

The past two weeks have seen at least 490 people abducted across multiple states, according to Nigeria's Punch newspaper.

As well as the schoolchildren and teachers, those kidnapped also includes church worshipers and priests, a bride and her bridesmaids and farmers.

How bad is Nigeria's security emergency?

Nigeria faces multiple security threats. It has a long-running extremist insurgency in the north, where Boko Haram and other Islamist splinter groups carry out mass atrocities. In the country's north-central region, farmers and hearders regularly clash over dwindling land and water resources.

On top of this, the northwest and north-central regions are seeing escalating violence by bandit gangs, including the rape of women and girls, kidnap-for-ransom and cattle rustling.

At least 11 states, including Kebbi, Katsina, Plataeau and Yobe states, have partially or completely closed their schools because of security concerns, while the federal government also closed 47 of its "Unity" schools in the north.

According to Nigeria's National Human Rights Commission, at least 2,266 people were killed by bandits or insurgents during the first half of 2025 alone.

The worsening armed violence led President Tinubu to declare a nationwide security emergency last week.

He also ordered the recruitment of 50,000 police officers and more army enlistment.

US also pressuring Nigeria over protection of Christians

Separately, Nigeria faces pressure from the administration of US President Donald Trump, who has claimed that Christians are being persecuted in the country.

Last month Trump even threatened military action and sanctions over Nigeria's treatment of Christians.

The Nigerian government and independent security analysts have repeatedly rebuked Trump's claimes, adding that the country's conflicts affect victims across religious lines.

Source: DW

China is lining up a 5% GDP growth target for 2026, keeping the same number it used this year, according to government advisers and analysts.

That target puts pressure on policymakers to keep fiscal spending and monetary easing wide open as they try to break a lingering deflation cycle.

The goal is being shaped behind closed doors and is tied directly to the start of the 15th five-year plan, a period meant to reset the pace after years of strain across the economy.

The 5% target is meant to give the new five-year plan a strong launch while officials try to shake off years of damage from a long property slump, soft consumer demand, excess factory capacity, and falling infrastructure-led investment.

Leaders have already signaled a shift toward boosting household consumption and pushing structural economic change over the next five years.

But advisers say those moves take time to work. For now, the short-term fix stays focused on government spending and central bank action.

Beijing pushes fiscal and rate tools

Most advisers who spoke allegedly said they back a 5% growth target for 2026. A smaller group suggested a slightly lower range of 4.5% to 5%.

Top officials are expected to approve the final number at the Central Economic Work Conference later this month, where next year's economic priorities will be locked in. The public will not see the target until March, when it is released at the annual parliament meeting.

The advisers are not formal decision-makers and asked to stay unnamed because the talks are private. Their views closely match the wider consensus among private economists. Last year's agenda-setting meeting ran from December 11 to December 12.

One adviser allegedly said directly, "We should set a target of around 5% for 2026, the first year of the 15th five-year plan. There will be certainly challenges in achieving this, but there is room to maneuver with both fiscal and monetary policy."

Most of these advisers also want the budget deficit ratio to stay near 4% or slightly above. China already set a record 4% of GDP deficit this year to support growth. On the oil side, demand is not offering any near-term lift.

Janet Kong, chief executive officer of Hengli Petrochemical International Pte, said oil demand will likely stay weak until at least the middle of next year. "It's difficult to find a very bright spot unless the government rolls out new policy at beginning of next year," Janet said on the sidelines of the Financial Times Commodities Asia Summit in Singapore.

China remains the world's largest crude oil importer, but slow growth, trade battles triggered by President Donald Trump, and the rising electrification of transport are holding back fuel use. Even petrochemicals, long seen as one of the few demand bright spots, are under pressure from overcapacity.

Janet also pointed to a possible shift in global demand, saying oil demand may strengthen more in West of Suez markets than in East of Suez, with the United States and traditional OECD economies expected to see growth.

Central bank and subsidies stay in play

On the policy front, Citi analysts expect China's central bank to restart interest rate cuts as early as January 2026, after its last cut in May. The period following the Central Economic Work Conference is also seen as a key window for another round of incremental property support.

On the fiscal side, Citi said in a note that government bond issuance could once again be front-loaded in 2026, with a slow shift toward consumer support and welfare spending.

The government is also expected to keep its consumer goods trade-in subsidies in place next year. Those subsidies totaled 300 billion yuan, about $42.43 billion, this year. Officials are discussing a possible shift of some funds away from goods and into services, but the overall support program is expected to remain active in 2026.

Longer term, China faces a strict math problem. An official study tied to the five-year plan proposals said the country needs average annual growth of 4.17% over the next decade to double per capita GDP to $20,000 from its 2020 level. That milestone would mark a formal transition to what officials call a moderately developed country.

Because of the slowing economy, policymakers are expected to keep ambitious annual growth targets over the next several years to protect policy flexibility later on, according to advisers and economists.

At the same time, the new five-year plan, which will be released at the parliament meeting, is not expected to set a fixed growth target for 2026 through 2030, keeping the same practice used in the current plan.

Source: CryptoSlate

Pending Return of Capital Inflows

Bitcoin Struggles to End Broad Correction

Source: investing