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A closely watched derivatives strategist expects Bitcoin’s next major move to begin with a violent short squeeze, only to flip into a punishing “long trap” as October opens—a sequence he argues rhymes more with late-2023 than with the euphoric blow-offs of March and December 2024.
In a thread posted on September 12 and expanded over the weekend, analyst Nik Patel (@cointradernik) said the current positioning backdrop “is less like March and Dec ’24 crossovers and more like Dec ’23,” warning that the market is set up for a “multi-week whipsaw going into early/mid Oct.” He added a specific liquidation map: “Give me $1.5bn in shorts liqs on the weekly and then $2.8bn of long liqs into Oct 7th pls.”
What Is Different This Time For Bitcoin?
What makes this setup different, in his view, is the balance between spot and derivatives flows and the breadth of basis trades. “Spot vol as % of total vol [is] lower here than prior crossovers for Others OI vs BTC OI (March ’24 and Dec ’24),” he wrote, arguing that if spot demand were truly in the driver’s seat “we should expect spot vol as a % of total vol to be higher not lower.”
Instead, he sees “a combination of basis trade across a broader range of markets than just BTC & ETH but also more directional levered shorts than prior occasions,” with the immediate “upside risk… even greater for a short liq cascade first.” Funding, he noted, is “benign” relative to those earlier peaks.
Real-time funding data broadly corroborate the “benign” characterization. Across major venues, BTC perpetual funding hovered close to flat in recent sessions—generally in the +0.005% to +0.01% per-8-hour range—well below the overheated prints typical of euphoric tops. That keeps the door open to a squeeze without the need to first unwind extreme long leverage.
Sentiment, Nik argued, is still closer to “disbelief” than euphoria. He contrasted March 2024’s ETF frenzy and December 2024’s post-election optimism with today’s more skeptical tone, pointing to a still-elevated pool of sidelined capital. “Both prior crossovers had stablecoin dominance trough at 5% ish. We are currently at 6.1% — imo this is textbook disbelief/Sidelined September positioning,” he wrote.
In his base case, that war chest ultimately fuels year-end risk-taking once the whipsaw plays out: “We will almost certainly get the positioning whipsaw and bear trap during that quarterly end & monthly open window of weakness, but there are a lot more stables ready to be deployed here into year-end.”
In a self-aware aside, Nik even shared a machine-generated distillation of his view: “ChatGPT coming to a similar conclusion here after I fed all these charts in, idk if that inspires confidence or concern about my view though lol.”
ChatGPT wrote: “Past crossovers: signaled end-phase altseason blowoffs, fueled by euphoric longs with no dry powder left. This crossover: signals pre-phase potential — leverage is already there, but it’s balanced/shorter, with capital still on the sidelines (stables). This is why the funding differential is so important: • High funding + low stables = top-like conditions. Low funding + high stables = squeeze-ready conditions.”
Renowned crypto analyst CRG (@MacroCRG) consented: “Agree with him that a big short liq event is likely before a big long liq event still lots of positioning to unwind imo from ppl expecting a bearish September. In saying that, would like the coins to bounce soon, many are at/near key pivots.”
As ever with path-dependent derivatives tape, the trigger matters. Nik cautioned that a “massive short liquidation event” in the coming week could flip the script if it invites “late longs” and spikes funding into October. But absent that sudden shift, his base case remains a two-step: an upside liquidation cascade that resets shorts, followed by a rug-pull on over-eager longs into the October 7 window.
Traders watching for confirmation will focus on whether funding stays contained as price lifts, whether spot participation actually broadens rather than fades, and whether stablecoin deployment reduces the cash cushion he cites.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $114,852.
The Shibarium network, a layer-two scaling solution on the Ethereum chain and focused on the Shiba Inu project, has suffered a major blow. Earlier on Monday, the Shiba Inu team announced that it is no longer endorsing the Shibarium network.
Why Is Shibarium no Longer Supported By Shiba Inu?
According to the announcement, the Shiba Inu ecosystem is best represented by Ryoshi’s vision of decentralization, true utility, and fairness for all holders. The recent Shibarium network attack, in which the team responded with 4.6 million tokens freezing, has raised eyebrows on the decentralization of the Shibarium ecosystem.
“As we said before: we respect those using Shibarium, but we no longer endorse it because it doesn’t align fully with Ryoshi’s vision — which values decentralization, true utility, and fairness for all holders,” the announcement noted.
Although the token freeze helped the users not to lose their funds, the Shiba Inu team stated that decentralization is a major part of the SHIB ecosystem.
What’s the Market Picture?
The notable blow to the Shibarium project will have a notable impact on its bid to expand to global markets. According to market data from DeFiLlama, the Shibarium network has seen its total value locked (TVL) drop to $1.81 million year-to-date.
The mainstream adoption of Memecoins has also diluted the Shiba Inu buyers in the past year. With the Shiba Inu team distancing themselves from the Shibarium project, its mainstream adoption is likely to stall even during the highly anticipated altseason.
Meanwhile, SHIB price has continued to consolidate in a symmetrical triangle, possibly preparing for a major bullish breakout.
MetaMask, a well-established digital asset wallet focused on the Ethereum ecosystem, has announced the launch of its stablecoin. The MetaMask USD (mUSD) is a stablecoin backed by the U.S. dollar, initially issued on the Ethereum network and an EVM layer two (L2) scaling solution Linea L.
How Will MetaMask USD Function?
The MetaMask USD will be compatible with MetaMask’s services and spendable with the MetaMask Card. The MetaMask team unveiled the mUSD stablecoin to enhance liquidity within its ecosystem, in addition to Linea-based incentives.
According to the announcement, the mUSD will offer users low-cost fiat on-ramps in MetaMask. The MetaMask team worked closely with the M0 Protocol and Bridge.xyz to facilitate the development of the mUSD.
Market Picture
According to market data from MetaMask’s site, the mUSD had a market cap of about $20.3 million and a total traded volume of around $32.35 million at the time of this writing.
The mUSD is well-positioned to grow exponentially in the coming months fueled by the vast user base at MetaMask and the favorable regulatory framework. MetaMask launched its stablecoin after the U.S. government enacted the GENIUS Act to regulate the stablecoin market.
Additionally, the MetaMask platform has significantly benefited from the charges dropped by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
How Will Users Benefit?
According to market data analysis from CoinGlass, the altcoin season index has surged above 70, signaling a parabolic rally for altcoins ahead. As such, the strategic launch of mUSD will enhance the crypto trading liquidity on MetaMask.
The Shiba Inu community is on high alert after a major compromise of the Shibarium bridge over the weekend. What began as reports from blockchain security firm PeckShield quickly escalated into a confirmed attack involving validator key leaks, flash loans, and malicious state changes. Developers have scrambled to contain the breach by freezing 4.6 million BONE tokens, but the situation has revealed vulnerabilities in the security of Shiba Inu’s infrastructure and has had an impact on Shiba Inu’s short-term price action.
Developer Confirms Attack Details
Taking to the social media platform X, Shiba Inu developer Kaal Dhairya revealed that the incident was probably planned for months and executed using a flash loan to acquire 4.6 million BONE tokens. After gaining access to validator signing keys, the attacker was able to gain majority control and approve a malicious state to siphon assets from the Shibarium bridge. Fortunately, the stolen BONE was delegated to Validator 1, leaving it locked by unstaking delays and giving the team a narrow opportunity to intervene.
Dhairya confirmed that the developers immediately froze the compromised funds, suspended all staking and unstaking activity, and transferred stake manager reserves into a hardware wallet secured by a 6/9 multisignature setup. However, the moves were temporary until the extent of the validator compromise could be confirmed, but the developer assured the community that protecting assets was the team’s top priority.
The breach drew quick attention from multiple blockchain security outfits. PeckShield, a leading blockchain security company, posted an Etherscan transaction showing the breach by the ShibaSwap exploiter on X.
However, Kaal Dhairya noted that the Shiba Inu team is working with PeckShield, Hexens, and Seal 911 to continue investigations on the incident and the next steps to take.
According to a separate analysis by Tikkala Security on X, the losses appear to extend beyond the BONE freeze. The post claimed that multiple signer keys appear to have leaked in Shibaswap, which caused an estimated $2.8 million loss. Tikkala Security pointed to an attacker address on Etherscan and explained that the exploit involved repeatedly submitting legitimate Merkle leaf exit requests tied to a root signed by ten different addresses.
Market Impact And Price Outlook
Despite the severity of the breach, BONE’s market price spiked by over 20% in the hours following the freeze announcement, and this is likely due to the rapid containment. However, the BONE price has calmed, and the breach could have long-term effects that extend beyond the next few days.
The Shibarium bridge is important to Shiba Inu’s strategy. Any lingering doubts about validator integrity or the scope of the losses could weigh heavily on the price of Shiba Inu and BONE.
As it stands, both the Shiba Inu and BONE prices have reversed gains in the past few hours. At the time of writing, BONE is trading at $0.1959, down by 4.4% in the past 24 hours, but still up by 24% from its price point seven days ago. Shiba Inu, on the other hand, is trading at $0.00001305, down by 7% in the past 24 hours.
Velora (VLR) will be listed on KuCoin, which can help price move higher. KuCoin is a well-known exchange. More traders will be able to buy and sell VLR, increasing demand and making trading easier. The listing event and new GemPool farming can also create buying interest. However, after the first push, price may fall as traders take profit. Much will depend on volume and if the project catches attention from new users. Early price spikes may happen, so watch market activity closely. source
KuCoin@kucoincomSep 15, 2025@VeloraDEX is officially on #KuCoinGemPool!
Stake $KCS, #USD1, or $VLR in KuCoin GemPool and farm $VLR tokens effortlessly.
Your gateway to new opportunities starts here!
Join now: https://t.co/AWa1v5Z492#KuCoinGemPool #VLR pic.twitter.com/WiK35m2GE9
The listing of Lombard (BARD) on OKX is important for price movement. OKX is a large crypto exchange. When a new coin is listed there, it often brings more interest and trading volume. This can push the price up because more traders now have access to BARD. However, sometimes after the first price jump, coins may fall because early buyers sell for profit. The main effect will depend on market interest and how strong the project is. Watch for high trading volume on launch day. source
OKX@okxSep 15, 2025#NewListing#OKX will list $BARD @Lombard_Finance!
$BARD/USDT Spot trading will begin at 11:00 AM on 18 Sep (UTC).
XDC Investor Day in Singapore could be a price mover if there is big news for the network. Often, such events bring together partners and investors and can lead to new deals or exciting announcements. If the project shares new roadmaps, partnerships, or achievements, market confidence can grow. This may cause the price to rise in the days before or after the event. But if no strong news comes out, there may be little effect. Traders should watch for updates during the event. source
XDC Network@XDC_Network_Sep 15, 2025Sept 30 — XDC Investor Day 2025, Singapore (Ocean Financial Centre; Token2049 week)
Focus: Network roadmap, institutional partnerships, market traction, and ecosystem pipeline.
Who should attend: Investors, funds, strategic partners.
Register: https://t.co/pfPEINNf8W
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