Bitcoin Preparing For A February Rally? Analyst Says New High Is Two Weeks Away

Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang announced that the crypto venture capital firm will donate $1.25 million to support Tornado Cash developer Roman Storm in his legal defense against U.S. prosecution.

“The prosecution’s case threatens to hold software developers criminally liable for the bad acts of third parties, which would have a chilling effect in crypto and beyond,” Huang wrote on social media platform X on Wednesday. “We must stand with [Storm].”

Storm co-founded Ethereum-based crypto mixer Tornado Cash with Roman Semenov, both of whom were charged by the U.S. Department of Justice with alleged money laundering-related charges in 2023.

Prosecutors claimed that Storm "knowingly facilitated” the laundering of over $1 billion in illicit funds on the crypto mixer, including money linked to North Korean cybercrime group Lazarus. The Tornado Cash founders each face up to 45 years in prison.

In Storm’s defense

In an X post on Jan. 23, Storm wrote that the prosecution embodies a “terrifying criminalization of privacy,” as he claims he is being charged for writing open-source code for private transactions in a non-custodial manner.

Earlier this month, a US court ordered the sanctions on Tornado Cash to be reversed — ruling that the crypto mixer should not be seen as “property” that can be sanctioned.

Despite the recent ruling, a New York court denied Storm’s motion to reconsider the legal action against the developer. 

“The Court recognized that ‘Mr. Storm argues that the Tornado Cash pool smart contracts were ‘immutable’ after May of 2020,’ but also recognized that ‘the indictment charges … that other aspects of the Tornado Cash service were not similarly free from tinkering,’” the court document said.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, along with other members of the crypto community, called for U.S. President Donald Trump to help lift the charges against Storm after Trump signed an executive order to pardon Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht.

Storm’s court trial is set for April 14, 2025.

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

© 2024 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Former U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler has returned to the Sloan School of Management at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) as a professor of practice following his departure from the agency. 

Gensler's work will center around teaching and researching such topics as financial technology and artificial intelligence (AI). 

The former SEC boss said that he was "thrilled" and "honored" to return to the prominent business school.

Gensler left MIT after being nominated and confirmed as the 33rd chair of the SEC.

Given that he previously taught classes on blockchain, some industry members expected him to adopt a friendlier stance toward cryptocurrencies than his predecessor Jay Clayton. 

However, Gensler continued Clayton's regulation by enforcement policies, bringing new lawsuits against various prominent cryptocurrency companies, including trading giant Coinbase.

Bitwise Asset Management officially submitted a filing to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Tuesday for a Dogecoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).

This marks the second filing for a Dogecoin ETF, following a similar move by Rex Shares last week.

Bitwise Files for Dogecoin ETF

On January 28, the asset manager submitted an S-1 form with the SEC to launch a Dogecoin ETF. This filing came shortly after its earlier application to establish a Dogecoin ETF through a Delaware trust.

With this move, Bitwise joins Rex Shares, which recently submitted ETF applications for multiple meme coins. These include DOGE, Bonk (BONK), and Donald Trump’s TRUMP token.

Nonetheless, Bitwise’s filing does have a specialty. Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, highlighted that the filing was made under the Securities Act of 1933.

Notably, this distinction is crucial. ETFs filed under the Securities Act of 1933 are physically backed, which means that they hold the underlying asset—in this case, Dogecoin.

In contrast, ETFs under the Investment Company Act of 1940 have a different structure. Therefore, they do not necessarily involve direct ownership of the asset.

Furthermore, in its filing, Bitwise has designated Coinbase Custody as the proposed custodian for its spot DOGE ETF. However, the S-1 does leave out certain details. This includes the proposed fee, ticker symbol, or the stock exchange on which the ETF would be listed if approved.

Meanwhile, following Bitwise’s Dogecoin ETF filing, betting odds on the prediction platform Polymarket surged to a record high of 56% in favor of approval. At the time of writing, the odds remained steady at 55%.

Bitwise’s move comes amid a rise in cryptocurrency ETF filings. The company has already launched spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Moreover, it has also filed applications for Solana and XRP ETFs.

However, the proposal for a Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund is still pending review. This fund aims to track the performance of the ten largest cryptocurrencies by market cap. Nevertheless, the SEC has extended its review of the application until March 2025.

TradeCompass: Bitcoin Futures Price Prediction and Analysis for Today (January 29, 2025)

At the time of this Bitcoin futures analysis, Bitcoin futures are trading at 102,400. Below is the comprehensive breakdown of today's bullish and bearish scenarios for Bitcoin futures, following the TradeCompass guidelines.

Bullish Scenario for Bitcoin Futures Today

We will turn bullish above 102,670, positioning us above the highest VWAP level of yesterday and the value area high (VAH) of two days ago. Here are the bullish profit targets:

• 102,855 – A quick initial profit target near yesterday's POC and VAH.
  • Note: The proximity of the first partial profit target to the bullish threshold is intentional. This closeness is due to key levels that may trigger a reversal or consolidation, especially as the market could trade in a tight range ahead of the FOMC meeting.
• 103,095 – Reinforces the significance of recent high-volume levels.
• 103,540 – Aligns with the 2nd upper standard deviation of the VWAP from two days ago, marking a strong resistance point.
• 105,595 – Positioned just below the VWAP of three days ago, where seller pressure might emerge.
• 106,425 (Runner) – Corresponds with the VAH of three days ago, offering an extended bullish target.

These levels guide bullish traders on how to manage entries and partial exits effectively, considering the potential for range-bound trading leading up to the FOMC meeting.

Bearish Scenario for Bitcoin Futures Today

We will turn bearish below 101,460, signaling a break under today's VWAP and the POC of two days ago. Bearish profit targets include:

• 100,835 – Just above the VWAP of two days ago, an initial conservative target.
• 99,435 – Positioned just above the value area low (VAL) of two days ago, indicating further downside potential.
• 98,065 – A deeper bearish target as market sentiment weakens.
• 96,625 – Aligns with the 3rd lower standard deviation of the VWAP from two days ago, marking a critical support zone.

These bearish targets offer a structured approach for managing downside risks in Bitcoin futures, considering key technical levels and potential market reactions to macroeconomic events.

Bitcoin Futures Price Prediction: Key Takeaways

• Bullish Bias: Above 102,670, initial targets at 102,855 and 103,095 highlight quick profit-taking opportunities due to key resistance levels.
• Bearish Bias: Below 101,460, targets at 100,835 and 99,435 provide clear milestones for bearish traders.
• Implement partial profit-taking after hitting the first target, moving the stop to the entry point for the remaining position. This strategy protects gains but also accepts the risk of being stopped out on reversals, especially in tight ranges.

Why These Levels Matter for Today's Bitcoin Futures Analysis

• Value Area (VA): Represents where 70% of trading occurred, guiding support and resistance expectations.
• VAH/VAL: The upper and lower boundaries, crucial for identifying potential reversals or continuations.
• POC: The highest volume level, signaling strong liquidity and interest.
• VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price): Helps assess market sentiment and trend strength.

Understanding these levels in today’s Bitcoin futures trading enhances traders' ability to execute high-probability strategies while managing risk effectively.

Market Considerations: FOMC Meeting Impact

With the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, anticipate a tighter trading range as markets await reactions. This event could significantly influence Bitcoin futures, especially regarding the broader risk-on/risk-off sentiment that often correlates with cryptocurrency volatility.

Order Flow Intel: A Broader Look at Bitcoin Futures

Traders should also take note of today's OrderFlow Intel on Bitcoin, which provides an AI-powered deep dive into the daily orderflow data of Bitcoin futures and insights beyond the intraday focus of TradeCompass. While TradeCompass primarily targets intraday movements with potential swing extensions, OrderFlow Intel analyzes the daily order flow mechanics over the last several sessions. This broader perspective can highlight underlying bearishness or weakness, offering an additional layer of analysis on how institutional activity and liquidity shifts influence Bitcoin futures beyond the immediate trade setup.

Bitcoin Futures Trading Disclaimer

Trade Bitcoin futures at your own risk. Visit ForexLive.com for additional perspectives on today’s markets and trading insights.

YZi Labs, the venture capital firm formerly Binance Labs, announced its investment in on-chain token distribution infrastructure provider Sign, its first since the rebrand.

According to Fortune, YZi Labs’ funding round was worth $16 million, with other participants including Altos Ventures, HackVC and Amber Ventures.

Sign, founded in 2021, is a platform that aims to develop a more transparent way for users and AI agents to receive crypto tokens. It offers various services, such as EthSign for signing contracts, TokenTable for managing digital tokens, and Sign Protocol for verifying information on the blockchain.

“Sign’s vision for mass Web3 onboarding aligns with YZi Labs’ commitment to pushing the boundaries of transformative innovation and driving innovation across the Web3 ecosystem and beyond,” said Nicola Wang, Investment Director at YZi Labs, in a press release.

The Block has reached out to YZi Labs for further comments.

CZ's return

Meanwhile, former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao reportedly rebranded Binance Labs into YZi Labs last week, following the end of his four-month prison sentence in September. 

While CZ has stepped down from his position running Binance's centralized exchange, YZi Labs said he will continue to have a “pivotal role” in investment activities.

"Rebranding to YZi Labs is more than a name change—it signifies an expanded vision as we broaden our horizons to include transformative sectors like AI and biotech," CZ said in last week’s announcement of the rebrand.

YZi Labs has over 250 projects in its portfolio, having invested in Sky Mavis, LayerZero, Aptos Labs and Polygon. It manages approximately $10 billion, according to Bloomberg.

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

© 2024 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Solana started a fresh decline below the $250 support. SOL price is consolidating and might face resistance near the $235 and $242 levels.

• SOL price started a fresh decline below the $250 and $240 levels against the US Dollar.
• The price is now trading below $240 and the 100-hourly simple moving average.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $235 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
• The pair could start a fresh increase if the bulls clear the $242 zone.

Solana Price Dips Below $250

Solana price struggled to clear the $260 resistance and started a fresh decline, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL declined below the $250 and $242 support levels.

It even dived below the $230 level. The recent low was formed at $225 and the price is now consolidating losses. It climbed a few points above the $230 level. It cleared the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $244 swing high to the $225 low.

Solana is now trading below $240 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the $235 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $244 swing high to the $225 low.

There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $235 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair. The next major resistance is near the $242 level. The main resistance could be $250. A successful close above the $250 resistance zone could set the pace for another steady increase. The next key resistance is $260. Any more gains might send the price toward the $275 level.

Another Decline in SOL?

If SOL fails to rise above the $235 resistance, it could start another decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $225 zone. The first major support is near the $222 level.

A break below the $222 level might send the price toward the $212 zone. If there is a close below the $212 support, the price could decline toward the $200 support in the near term.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for SOL/USD is losing pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly Hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for SOL/USD is below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $225 and $222.

Major Resistance Levels – $235 and $242.